DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
31 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURGBP 0.8886 key resistance.
EURUSD BULLISH Initial resistance is at 1.4549 ahead of 1.4578; a break above this level would open up 1.4697, the key high from June 7. Near-term support lies at 1.4328.
USDJPY BEARISH Break below 76.34 would signal extension of losses towards the key low at 75.95 ahead of the psychological 75.00 level. Resistance is at 77.02.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.6420 and support lies at 1.6255 ahead of 1.6208.
USDCHF BULLISH Focus is on initial resistance at 0.8278, a move above which would expose 0.8398. Support lies at 0.8041.
AUDUSD BULLISH There is potential for gains towards 1.0786 ahead of 1.0809. Initial support lies at 1.0621.
USDCAD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 0.9817 ahead of 0.9839, while a move below 0.9741 would trigger a bear trend.
EURCHF BULLISH Clearance of initial resistance at 1.1897 would open the way for a move towards 1.1973 ahead of 1.2172. Support lies at 1.1630.
EURGBP BULLISH Resistance at 0.8886 remains intact, a rise through this level would signal further gains towards 0.8915, a Fibonacci level. Initial support is at 0.8795.
EURJPY NEUTRAL Near-term directional triggers are at 111.94 and 110.11.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
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Wednesday, August 31, 2011
31st of August 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
31 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk markets continued to rally in Asia with the dollar softer versus G10 currencies, after a US session that was dominated by dovish FOMC minutes, which initially led the dollar gently lower, and pushed AUDUSD above 1.07 for the first time in almost four weeks. EURUSD traded 1.446-1.4414 and USDJPY 76.54-76.76. Crucially, the minutes revealed that 'a few' members felt that recent economic developments justified 'a more substantial move' at the Aug 9 meeting, but these members were willing to accept the change in forward rate guidance as "a step in the direction of additional accommodation". Earlier, two Fed speakers seemed to reinforce market expectations that the FOMC is shifting towards the dovish end of the spectrum. Chicago Fed President Evans (2011 voter) revealed that "he would have wanted to do more" at the Aug. 9 meeting. Even Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota who dissented at the latest meeting, suggested he would not dissent again - at least not for the same reason. Instead he said he would now 'abide' by the Fed's decision to introduce a conditional commitment to keep rates low until mid-2013. On the data front, house prices as measured by the Case-Shiller index showed further declines, and US consumer confidence fell to lows not seen since April 2009. Eurozone CPI and Canadian GDP numbers are due today.
EUR
The rebuttals continue after IMF Managing Director Lagarde over the weekend suggested that EU banks might need to be recapitalised. Bank of France Governor Noyer said he cannot understand why Lagarde would hold this view, and suggested she may have been misinformed by her IMF colleagues. The European Banking Authority also joined the debate, adding it is not calling for urgent and massive recapitalisation of EU banks. Our European banks team however continues to believe that the European banking system is grossly undercapitalised.
Noyer added that speculation about the possibility of a French ratings downgrade is an "absurd rumour".
An Italian auction was poorly received. The bid-to-cover ratio was low at 1.269%.
Eurozone economic sentiment fell to 98.3 in August from a revised 103.0 in July.
The headline CPI rate for the Eurozone is expected to drop slightly to 2.40%, whle the unemployment rate should be unchanged at 9.9%.
CHF
For three of the past four weeks, the SNB has made a policy announcement on Wednesdays at approximately 07:00 GMT. Last week was an exception, but with sight deposits now very close to (or at) the SNB's target of CHF 200 bn, investors will likely brace for the possibility of another SNB announcement. Having said that, the SNB is probably fairly satisfied with EURCHF above 1.18, and more importantly, the upward trend of recent days, and therefore may decide that a policy announcement is not warranted.
JPY
Japan's new PM Noda said he held teleconference with US Treasury Secretary Geithner but did not discuss FX. However, he continues to watch FX moves closely.
Manufacturing and industrial output numbers were softer than expectations at 51.9 and 0.6% m/m respectively.
GBP
M4 money supply numbers showed a further contraction with the y/y number decreasing by 1.1%. This provides further fodder for the BoE doves and may strengthen the case for new asset purchases.
BoE's Posen said the G7 central banks should buy assets to stop the economic downturn, and protect productive capacity and fiscal sustainability. He feels there are no credible threats of sustained higher inflation in advanced economies and more QE is needed.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
31 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk markets continued to rally in Asia with the dollar softer versus G10 currencies, after a US session that was dominated by dovish FOMC minutes, which initially led the dollar gently lower, and pushed AUDUSD above 1.07 for the first time in almost four weeks. EURUSD traded 1.446-1.4414 and USDJPY 76.54-76.76. Crucially, the minutes revealed that 'a few' members felt that recent economic developments justified 'a more substantial move' at the Aug 9 meeting, but these members were willing to accept the change in forward rate guidance as "a step in the direction of additional accommodation". Earlier, two Fed speakers seemed to reinforce market expectations that the FOMC is shifting towards the dovish end of the spectrum. Chicago Fed President Evans (2011 voter) revealed that "he would have wanted to do more" at the Aug. 9 meeting. Even Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota who dissented at the latest meeting, suggested he would not dissent again - at least not for the same reason. Instead he said he would now 'abide' by the Fed's decision to introduce a conditional commitment to keep rates low until mid-2013. On the data front, house prices as measured by the Case-Shiller index showed further declines, and US consumer confidence fell to lows not seen since April 2009. Eurozone CPI and Canadian GDP numbers are due today.
EUR
The rebuttals continue after IMF Managing Director Lagarde over the weekend suggested that EU banks might need to be recapitalised. Bank of France Governor Noyer said he cannot understand why Lagarde would hold this view, and suggested she may have been misinformed by her IMF colleagues. The European Banking Authority also joined the debate, adding it is not calling for urgent and massive recapitalisation of EU banks. Our European banks team however continues to believe that the European banking system is grossly undercapitalised.
Noyer added that speculation about the possibility of a French ratings downgrade is an "absurd rumour".
An Italian auction was poorly received. The bid-to-cover ratio was low at 1.269%.
Eurozone economic sentiment fell to 98.3 in August from a revised 103.0 in July.
The headline CPI rate for the Eurozone is expected to drop slightly to 2.40%, whle the unemployment rate should be unchanged at 9.9%.
CHF
For three of the past four weeks, the SNB has made a policy announcement on Wednesdays at approximately 07:00 GMT. Last week was an exception, but with sight deposits now very close to (or at) the SNB's target of CHF 200 bn, investors will likely brace for the possibility of another SNB announcement. Having said that, the SNB is probably fairly satisfied with EURCHF above 1.18, and more importantly, the upward trend of recent days, and therefore may decide that a policy announcement is not warranted.
JPY
Japan's new PM Noda said he held teleconference with US Treasury Secretary Geithner but did not discuss FX. However, he continues to watch FX moves closely.
Manufacturing and industrial output numbers were softer than expectations at 51.9 and 0.6% m/m respectively.
GBP
M4 money supply numbers showed a further contraction with the y/y number decreasing by 1.1%. This provides further fodder for the BoE doves and may strengthen the case for new asset purchases.
BoE's Posen said the G7 central banks should buy assets to stop the economic downturn, and protect productive capacity and fiscal sustainability. He feels there are no credible threats of sustained higher inflation in advanced economies and more QE is needed.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
30th of August 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
30 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD BULLISH Pressure is on 1.4578; a break above this level would open up 1.4697, the key high from June 7. Near-term support lies at 1.4328.
USDJPY BEARISH Decline through 76.34 would expose the key low of 75.95. Resistance is at 77.70.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.6534 and key support lies at 1.6208.
USDCHF BULLISH Focus is on 0.8278, a break of which would expose 0.8398. Support lies at 0.8041.
AUDUSD BULLISH Clearance of 1.0786 would open the way for gains towards 1.1007. Initial support lies at 1.0561.
USDCAD NEUTRAL Key support lies at 0.9708, a Fibonacci level and resistance is at 0.9839.
EURCHF BULLISH Initial resistance is at 1.2172 ahead of the key high at 1.2346. Support lies at 1.1555.
EURGBP BULLISH Key resistance is at 0.8886; a rise through which would expose 0.8915, a Fibonacci level. Initial support is at 0.8795.
EURJPY BULLISH Break above 112.71 would confirm the bull trend and open 114.18, a reaction high. Initial support lies at 110.55.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
30 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD BULLISH Pressure is on 1.4578; a break above this level would open up 1.4697, the key high from June 7. Near-term support lies at 1.4328.
USDJPY BEARISH Decline through 76.34 would expose the key low of 75.95. Resistance is at 77.70.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.6534 and key support lies at 1.6208.
USDCHF BULLISH Focus is on 0.8278, a break of which would expose 0.8398. Support lies at 0.8041.
AUDUSD BULLISH Clearance of 1.0786 would open the way for gains towards 1.1007. Initial support lies at 1.0561.
USDCAD NEUTRAL Key support lies at 0.9708, a Fibonacci level and resistance is at 0.9839.
EURCHF BULLISH Initial resistance is at 1.2172 ahead of the key high at 1.2346. Support lies at 1.1555.
EURGBP BULLISH Key resistance is at 0.8886; a rise through which would expose 0.8915, a Fibonacci level. Initial support is at 0.8795.
EURJPY BULLISH Break above 112.71 would confirm the bull trend and open 114.18, a reaction high. Initial support lies at 110.55.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
30th of August 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
30 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk ended the Monday session on a buoyant note though trading was generally light due to a UK holiday and limited activity in the US post Hurricane Irene. Nonetheless, there is still a suggestion that markets are not giving up on the chances of new QE, and today's FOMC minutes releases will probably be more forthcoming with information compared to the Jackson Hole speech last Friday. What is clear, is that activity data has been extremely challenging of late, with the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey became the latest regional survey to disappoint expectations, coming in at -11.4 (cons. -9.0). With the September FOMC decision gearing up to be arguably the most important one of the year, both voting and non-voting members appear keen to make their voices heard. Regional Fed Presidents Plosser, Fisher, and Kocherlakota have already been exposed as hawkish dissenters at the last policy meeting, and Kocherlakota is also due to speak later today. Chicago Fed President Evans (2011 voter) is scheduled to appear on CNBC, and is likely to stick to his traditionally dovish stance. House price and consumer confidence data are also due. Investors will also be keeping an eye on developments in the Eurozone, as Germany struggles to overcome political opposition to the current package of plans and Finland's dispute with partners over collateral for their aid contribution for Greece shows no sign of abating. EURUSD traded 1.4508-1.4526 and USDJPY 76.86-76.98.
EUR
Speaking before the European parliament, ECB President Trichet sounded a hawkish note, warning that ample liquidity could facilitate the build-up of price pressures. Trichet denied that the ECB had taken on too much risk. He said the balance sheets of the Fed and the Bank of England have increased by relatively more than the ECB's,
Trichet stressed that full and timely implementation of the July 21 summit agreement is critical. Eurogroup Chairman Juncker said that the current difficulties surrounding the provision of Greek collateral for Finland would not stop the implementation of the July 21 agreement. Reuters released a proposal from Finland to create a Luxembourg-based company to hold Greek assets as security for new loans to Greece. The Finnish proposal would require Greece to transfer assets to a holding company operating under Luxembourg law. In the case of a Greek default on EFSF loans, the ownership of holding company shares would transfer to member states. The Greek collateral issue is putting a cloud over the EFSF implementation schedule and the potential for euro-negative surprises are significant.
The ECB announced that EUR6.65 bn worth of Eurozone sovereign bond purchases settled last week, down from EUR14.49 bn the week before, and down from EUR22 bn the week before that. Given the ECB has progressively less and less work to do to hold down yields, it would appear that the selling pressure on Italian and Spanish debt is declining.
Yesterday's German CPI print showed a negative sequential number, at -0.1%m/m. Even though Trichet struck a hawkish tone yesterday, data may prove less forthcoming for the ECB hawks. CPI is due tomorrow and the market is currently looking for a 2.5% print. Ahead today Eurozone confidences indices are out. Italy will also auction up to EUR8bn in bonds today.
CHF
Sight deposits held at the SNB by commercial banks averaged CHF189.037bn over the past week, taking levels very close to the CHF200bn target. In fact, given the reported figure is an average over the entire week, the CHF 200 bn target may already have been reached. The SNB will likely be fairly satisfied with EURCHF at 1.18, and more importantly, the upward trend of recent days.
JPY
Finance Minister Noda won the election for DPJ party leader, and is now poised to succeed Prime Minister Kan in the coming days. The entire cabinet resigned overnight, paving the way for his confirmation as the new PM via parliament and investors will pay close attention to cabinet formation talks up ahead.
The unemployment rate increased unexpectedly to 4.7% (cons. 4.6%), but overall household spending dropped by less than expected. Retail trade figures overnight were very disappointing, coming in at 0.7%y/y, -0.3%m/m.
GBP
Consumer credit and M4 figures are due today. Money supply is already contracting on both a monthly and annualised basis. Further deterioration could strengthen the case for new asset purchases by the BoE but the vote split at this stage remains finely balanced.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
30 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk ended the Monday session on a buoyant note though trading was generally light due to a UK holiday and limited activity in the US post Hurricane Irene. Nonetheless, there is still a suggestion that markets are not giving up on the chances of new QE, and today's FOMC minutes releases will probably be more forthcoming with information compared to the Jackson Hole speech last Friday. What is clear, is that activity data has been extremely challenging of late, with the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey became the latest regional survey to disappoint expectations, coming in at -11.4 (cons. -9.0). With the September FOMC decision gearing up to be arguably the most important one of the year, both voting and non-voting members appear keen to make their voices heard. Regional Fed Presidents Plosser, Fisher, and Kocherlakota have already been exposed as hawkish dissenters at the last policy meeting, and Kocherlakota is also due to speak later today. Chicago Fed President Evans (2011 voter) is scheduled to appear on CNBC, and is likely to stick to his traditionally dovish stance. House price and consumer confidence data are also due. Investors will also be keeping an eye on developments in the Eurozone, as Germany struggles to overcome political opposition to the current package of plans and Finland's dispute with partners over collateral for their aid contribution for Greece shows no sign of abating. EURUSD traded 1.4508-1.4526 and USDJPY 76.86-76.98.
EUR
Speaking before the European parliament, ECB President Trichet sounded a hawkish note, warning that ample liquidity could facilitate the build-up of price pressures. Trichet denied that the ECB had taken on too much risk. He said the balance sheets of the Fed and the Bank of England have increased by relatively more than the ECB's,
Trichet stressed that full and timely implementation of the July 21 summit agreement is critical. Eurogroup Chairman Juncker said that the current difficulties surrounding the provision of Greek collateral for Finland would not stop the implementation of the July 21 agreement. Reuters released a proposal from Finland to create a Luxembourg-based company to hold Greek assets as security for new loans to Greece. The Finnish proposal would require Greece to transfer assets to a holding company operating under Luxembourg law. In the case of a Greek default on EFSF loans, the ownership of holding company shares would transfer to member states. The Greek collateral issue is putting a cloud over the EFSF implementation schedule and the potential for euro-negative surprises are significant.
The ECB announced that EUR6.65 bn worth of Eurozone sovereign bond purchases settled last week, down from EUR14.49 bn the week before, and down from EUR22 bn the week before that. Given the ECB has progressively less and less work to do to hold down yields, it would appear that the selling pressure on Italian and Spanish debt is declining.
Yesterday's German CPI print showed a negative sequential number, at -0.1%m/m. Even though Trichet struck a hawkish tone yesterday, data may prove less forthcoming for the ECB hawks. CPI is due tomorrow and the market is currently looking for a 2.5% print. Ahead today Eurozone confidences indices are out. Italy will also auction up to EUR8bn in bonds today.
CHF
Sight deposits held at the SNB by commercial banks averaged CHF189.037bn over the past week, taking levels very close to the CHF200bn target. In fact, given the reported figure is an average over the entire week, the CHF 200 bn target may already have been reached. The SNB will likely be fairly satisfied with EURCHF at 1.18, and more importantly, the upward trend of recent days.
JPY
Finance Minister Noda won the election for DPJ party leader, and is now poised to succeed Prime Minister Kan in the coming days. The entire cabinet resigned overnight, paving the way for his confirmation as the new PM via parliament and investors will pay close attention to cabinet formation talks up ahead.
The unemployment rate increased unexpectedly to 4.7% (cons. 4.6%), but overall household spending dropped by less than expected. Retail trade figures overnight were very disappointing, coming in at 0.7%y/y, -0.3%m/m.
GBP
Consumer credit and M4 figures are due today. Money supply is already contracting on both a monthly and annualised basis. Further deterioration could strengthen the case for new asset purchases by the BoE but the vote split at this stage remains finely balanced.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Monday, August 29, 2011
29th of August 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
29 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDCHF clears 0.8017.
EURUSD BULLISH Rise through 1.4536 would open 1.4578 ahead of 1.4697. Support lies at 1.4328.
USDJPY BEARISH Break below 76.34 would confirm the bear trend and expose the key low at 75.95. Resistance is at 77.52.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.6534 and support lies at 1.6208.
USDCHF BULLISH Clearance of 0.8017 has paved the way for gains towards 0.8178 and 0.8278. Initial support lies at 0.7893.
AUDUSD NEUTRAL Break above 1.0602 has opened resistance at 1.0786 and support at 1.0419.
USDCAD NEUTRAL Fall through 0.9792 has turned the model neutral. Initial resistance is at 0.9939 and support at 0.9742.
EURCHF BULLISH Sharp rise through 1.1663 has opened the way for further gains towards 1.1892 and 1.1984. Support lies at 1.1396.
EURGBP BULLISH Key resistance is at 0.8886, a break of which would expose 0.8915, a Fibonacci level. Initial support is at 0.8795.
EURJPY NEUTRAL Resistance is at 111.83, a Fibonacci level. Support lies at 109.94.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
29 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDCHF clears 0.8017.
EURUSD BULLISH Rise through 1.4536 would open 1.4578 ahead of 1.4697. Support lies at 1.4328.
USDJPY BEARISH Break below 76.34 would confirm the bear trend and expose the key low at 75.95. Resistance is at 77.52.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.6534 and support lies at 1.6208.
USDCHF BULLISH Clearance of 0.8017 has paved the way for gains towards 0.8178 and 0.8278. Initial support lies at 0.7893.
AUDUSD NEUTRAL Break above 1.0602 has opened resistance at 1.0786 and support at 1.0419.
USDCAD NEUTRAL Fall through 0.9792 has turned the model neutral. Initial resistance is at 0.9939 and support at 0.9742.
EURCHF BULLISH Sharp rise through 1.1663 has opened the way for further gains towards 1.1892 and 1.1984. Support lies at 1.1396.
EURGBP BULLISH Key resistance is at 0.8886, a break of which would expose 0.8915, a Fibonacci level. Initial support is at 0.8795.
EURJPY NEUTRAL Resistance is at 111.83, a Fibonacci level. Support lies at 109.94.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
29th of August 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
29 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk sentiment has been supported in Asian hours, mainly in reaction to Fed Chairman Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech on Friday and with Hurricane Irene causing less damage than initially feared. Bernanke confirmed a view of reaccelerating growth by the end of the year, but also said that the Fed has a range of tools for stimulating growth and that it will use its tools as appropriate. Separately, he announced that the upcoming FOMC meeting would be extended to two days, from one day previously. This is to allow for a "fuller discussion" of options available for further easing, as well as other topics. Although Bernanke did not signal new steps to promote growth, he kept all options open, which ultimately helped risk sentiment. Fears that Hurricane Irene would wreak havoc in New York City have proved largely unfounded, and Irene has now been downgraded to tropical storm status. US stock futures are trading in the black as a result, with S&P 500 futures up by 1.2%. EURUSD traded 1.4466-1.4495 and USDJPY 76.65-76.82.
EUR
Speaking on a panel at Jackson Hole, ECB President Trichet gave no indication that the ECB was considering reversing the 50bp of tightening applied so far this year. He said anchoring of inflation expectations is "absolutely essential" to supporting confidence. He added that although European economic fundamentals were not bad, economic governance needs to be improved.
ECB Governing Council member Nowotny said that Eurozone inflation expectations are "stable", adding that even if an economic slowdown is on the way for Europe, it would not lead to an actual recession.
German Finance Minister Schaeuble said the global economy may see "seven lean years" as fiscal consolidation programmes are implemented. CEO of the EFSF, Regling, said "there is good reason to hope" the Eurozone debt crisis will be over in 2-3 years, provided corrective action is taken. He added that "the risk that the euro is discarded, from whatever quarter, is zero".
The ECB is due to announce the value of bond purchases that settled last week under the Securities Markets Program. EUR14.29 bn settled the week before, the third-highest level of activity since the program began in May 2010. The announcement itself tends not to move FX markets. However, with the ECB holding down Eurozone sovereign yields, the yields themselves are now an imperfect indication of sovereign stress levels, and knowledge of ECB activity helps to build a more complete picture. Clearly vigorous official bond buying would suggest market participants are keener to part with their bond holdings than current yields suggest, and could raise doubts about the EFSF's capacity to take over the ECB's bond buying duties by the end of the year.
IMF Managing Director Lagarde said that the crisis has entered a "dangerous new phase", and floated the idea of "mandatory substantial recapitalisations" of the Eurozone banking system, from private sector sources if possible or via the EFSF if necessary.
CHF
The SNB is due to provide its weekly update on the amount of sight deposits held at the SNB by commercial banks averaged over the past week. The SNB's stated ambition is to raise sight deposits to CHF200 bn in a bid to weaken the Swiss franc, so this data will provide a useful measure of how much progress there has been toward this target. The previous level announced a week ago came to CHF 136.614 bn.
JPY
Finance Minister Noda won the DPJ's election for a new leader, and hence will become Japan's sixth prime minister in five years.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
29 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk sentiment has been supported in Asian hours, mainly in reaction to Fed Chairman Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech on Friday and with Hurricane Irene causing less damage than initially feared. Bernanke confirmed a view of reaccelerating growth by the end of the year, but also said that the Fed has a range of tools for stimulating growth and that it will use its tools as appropriate. Separately, he announced that the upcoming FOMC meeting would be extended to two days, from one day previously. This is to allow for a "fuller discussion" of options available for further easing, as well as other topics. Although Bernanke did not signal new steps to promote growth, he kept all options open, which ultimately helped risk sentiment. Fears that Hurricane Irene would wreak havoc in New York City have proved largely unfounded, and Irene has now been downgraded to tropical storm status. US stock futures are trading in the black as a result, with S&P 500 futures up by 1.2%. EURUSD traded 1.4466-1.4495 and USDJPY 76.65-76.82.
EUR
Speaking on a panel at Jackson Hole, ECB President Trichet gave no indication that the ECB was considering reversing the 50bp of tightening applied so far this year. He said anchoring of inflation expectations is "absolutely essential" to supporting confidence. He added that although European economic fundamentals were not bad, economic governance needs to be improved.
ECB Governing Council member Nowotny said that Eurozone inflation expectations are "stable", adding that even if an economic slowdown is on the way for Europe, it would not lead to an actual recession.
German Finance Minister Schaeuble said the global economy may see "seven lean years" as fiscal consolidation programmes are implemented. CEO of the EFSF, Regling, said "there is good reason to hope" the Eurozone debt crisis will be over in 2-3 years, provided corrective action is taken. He added that "the risk that the euro is discarded, from whatever quarter, is zero".
The ECB is due to announce the value of bond purchases that settled last week under the Securities Markets Program. EUR14.29 bn settled the week before, the third-highest level of activity since the program began in May 2010. The announcement itself tends not to move FX markets. However, with the ECB holding down Eurozone sovereign yields, the yields themselves are now an imperfect indication of sovereign stress levels, and knowledge of ECB activity helps to build a more complete picture. Clearly vigorous official bond buying would suggest market participants are keener to part with their bond holdings than current yields suggest, and could raise doubts about the EFSF's capacity to take over the ECB's bond buying duties by the end of the year.
IMF Managing Director Lagarde said that the crisis has entered a "dangerous new phase", and floated the idea of "mandatory substantial recapitalisations" of the Eurozone banking system, from private sector sources if possible or via the EFSF if necessary.
CHF
The SNB is due to provide its weekly update on the amount of sight deposits held at the SNB by commercial banks averaged over the past week. The SNB's stated ambition is to raise sight deposits to CHF200 bn in a bid to weaken the Swiss franc, so this data will provide a useful measure of how much progress there has been toward this target. The previous level announced a week ago came to CHF 136.614 bn.
JPY
Finance Minister Noda won the DPJ's election for a new leader, and hence will become Japan's sixth prime minister in five years.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Friday, August 26, 2011
26th of August 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
26 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Cautious optimism appears to be the order of affairs as the market looks to a series of growth figures and Bernanke's key Jackson Hole speech today. Most Asian equity indices are trading higher, though again investors would need to ponder how much of this is artificial as the short-selling ban currently in place in France, Italy, Spain and Belgium has been extended. We believe markets are skewed towards a "risk on" posture heading into the speech, especially given this week's price action, though not aggressively so. There are other worries to consider, such as yesterday's jitters in Germany over its credit rating and an impending hurricane along the US east coast. As such, any disappointment on the part of Bernanke with regard to QE3 would not be welcomed, but the ultimate scope for downside may not be as aggressive as feared. Yesterday's US jobless claims were higher than consensus expectations at 417K (cons. 405K), but the reaction was limited as today's GDP numbers are probably the last market-moving figures before the focus shifts to policy. We expect the US economy to have expanded by 1.0% annualised in Q2 (cons. 1.10%). Growth numbers are also out in the UK, and the Swiss KoF leading indicator might give some direction on how the Swiss economy is currently faring with an 'overvalued' currency, according to the SNB. Overnight EURUSD traded 1.4370-1.4426 and USDJPY 77.20-77.50.
EUR
The ECB and the BoE extended their reciprocal swap lines, although these have never been used. The lines were originally set up in Dec 2010, and were due to expire in Sept 2011. However, following the extension, they are now due to remain in place until Sept. 2012. Should funding strains increase, the lines are designed to ensure a ready supply of sterling for Eurozone banks, up to GBP 10 bn in total.
German Finance Minister Schaeuble said the euro will "definitely" be around in 10 years' time. He said the German parliament might delay until Sept 29 a vote on extending the powers of the EFSF.
France, Italy, Spain and Belgium extended their bans on short selling financial stocks to Sept 30. The original ban came into force on Aug 3.
Yesterday all three ratings agencies affirmed Germany's credit rating at AAA, according to CNBC
Denmark's central bank lowered the policy rate by 10 bp. The move is a reaction to falling Eurozone money market interest rates which have encouraged DKK inflows. Markets are now pricing in 17 bp of ECB cuts over the next 12 months. Our European economists think the ECB will keep the refi rate at 1.50% for all of 2012.
GBP
BOE MPC member Weale gave a dovish speech, suggesting that the fall in oil prices may feed through into lower inflationary pressure in the longer term. He said he does not see the need for more QE at the moment but said he was certain the BOE would do more if the economic situation warranted it. Weale was one of the two hawks voting for rate hikes up until the August 4 meeting, so this fairly sudden change in tone is significant.
UK CBI reported sales for August fell to -14, lower than expectations for -10 and after -5 in July.
Ahead today UK GDP is due, we expect an expansion in growth of 0.1% on the quarter, vs. market's 0.2% view.
JPY
Prime Minister Naoto Kan has formally resigned as party head, and said he would also step down as PM once the party had chosen its new leader next week.
Inflation numbers overnight were slightly higher than expected, headline and core CPI came in at 0.2% and 0.1% annualised respectively.
AUD
RBA Governor Stevens' parliamentary testimony was broadly cautious, consistent with our views that the central bank will remain on hold for the rest of the year. He noted external conditions were challenging and caused the domestic outlook to become more cautious. Warning that global growth 'did not look as strong' as six months ago, the policy outlook appeared particularly volatile but argued against immediate policy cuts due to persistent inflation concern. Our economists note the overall tone suggests current market pricing of cuts is too aggressive.
NZD
Our NZ economist has updated his thinking on when the RBNZ might hike next. For now, he continues to expect 25 bp of tightening in December, provided markets stabilise, confidence rebounds, and the recovery remains on track. However, given the risks and uncertainties at the current moment, he notes it is difficult to be confident about this timing - he recognises that it is not difficult to envisage a scenario where the RBNZ does not touch the OCR until sometime in 2012.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
26 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Cautious optimism appears to be the order of affairs as the market looks to a series of growth figures and Bernanke's key Jackson Hole speech today. Most Asian equity indices are trading higher, though again investors would need to ponder how much of this is artificial as the short-selling ban currently in place in France, Italy, Spain and Belgium has been extended. We believe markets are skewed towards a "risk on" posture heading into the speech, especially given this week's price action, though not aggressively so. There are other worries to consider, such as yesterday's jitters in Germany over its credit rating and an impending hurricane along the US east coast. As such, any disappointment on the part of Bernanke with regard to QE3 would not be welcomed, but the ultimate scope for downside may not be as aggressive as feared. Yesterday's US jobless claims were higher than consensus expectations at 417K (cons. 405K), but the reaction was limited as today's GDP numbers are probably the last market-moving figures before the focus shifts to policy. We expect the US economy to have expanded by 1.0% annualised in Q2 (cons. 1.10%). Growth numbers are also out in the UK, and the Swiss KoF leading indicator might give some direction on how the Swiss economy is currently faring with an 'overvalued' currency, according to the SNB. Overnight EURUSD traded 1.4370-1.4426 and USDJPY 77.20-77.50.
EUR
The ECB and the BoE extended their reciprocal swap lines, although these have never been used. The lines were originally set up in Dec 2010, and were due to expire in Sept 2011. However, following the extension, they are now due to remain in place until Sept. 2012. Should funding strains increase, the lines are designed to ensure a ready supply of sterling for Eurozone banks, up to GBP 10 bn in total.
German Finance Minister Schaeuble said the euro will "definitely" be around in 10 years' time. He said the German parliament might delay until Sept 29 a vote on extending the powers of the EFSF.
France, Italy, Spain and Belgium extended their bans on short selling financial stocks to Sept 30. The original ban came into force on Aug 3.
Yesterday all three ratings agencies affirmed Germany's credit rating at AAA, according to CNBC
Denmark's central bank lowered the policy rate by 10 bp. The move is a reaction to falling Eurozone money market interest rates which have encouraged DKK inflows. Markets are now pricing in 17 bp of ECB cuts over the next 12 months. Our European economists think the ECB will keep the refi rate at 1.50% for all of 2012.
GBP
BOE MPC member Weale gave a dovish speech, suggesting that the fall in oil prices may feed through into lower inflationary pressure in the longer term. He said he does not see the need for more QE at the moment but said he was certain the BOE would do more if the economic situation warranted it. Weale was one of the two hawks voting for rate hikes up until the August 4 meeting, so this fairly sudden change in tone is significant.
UK CBI reported sales for August fell to -14, lower than expectations for -10 and after -5 in July.
Ahead today UK GDP is due, we expect an expansion in growth of 0.1% on the quarter, vs. market's 0.2% view.
JPY
Prime Minister Naoto Kan has formally resigned as party head, and said he would also step down as PM once the party had chosen its new leader next week.
Inflation numbers overnight were slightly higher than expected, headline and core CPI came in at 0.2% and 0.1% annualised respectively.
AUD
RBA Governor Stevens' parliamentary testimony was broadly cautious, consistent with our views that the central bank will remain on hold for the rest of the year. He noted external conditions were challenging and caused the domestic outlook to become more cautious. Warning that global growth 'did not look as strong' as six months ago, the policy outlook appeared particularly volatile but argued against immediate policy cuts due to persistent inflation concern. Our economists note the overall tone suggests current market pricing of cuts is too aggressive.
NZD
Our NZ economist has updated his thinking on when the RBNZ might hike next. For now, he continues to expect 25 bp of tightening in December, provided markets stabilise, confidence rebounds, and the recovery remains on track. However, given the risks and uncertainties at the current moment, he notes it is difficult to be confident about this timing - he recognises that it is not difficult to envisage a scenario where the RBNZ does not touch the OCR until sometime in 2012.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Thursday, August 25, 2011
25th of August 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
25 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDCHF 0.8017 resistance.
EURUSD BULLISH A break above 1.4500 would expose 1.4578. Initial support lies at 1.4259.
USDJPY BEARISH Decline through 76.34 would expose the key low of 75.95. Initial resistance is at 77.21 ahead of 77.86.
GBPUSD BULLISH As long as the support at 1.6305, a Fibonacci level, holds, watch for a move towards 1.6534 ahead of 1.6573.
USDCHF BULLISH Rise through 0.8017 would confirm the bull trend and expose 0.8178. Support lies at 0.7744.
AUDUSD BEARISH A move below 1.0315 would open the way for 1.0246. Near-term resistance is at 1.0559.
USDCAD BULLISH Initial resistance is at 0.9939, a break above which would expose 0.9969. Support lies at 0.9799.
EURCHF BULLISH Watch for a break above 1.1555 to confirm the bullish conditions and open the way for 1.1663. Support lies at 1.1165.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Initial resistance is at 0.8830 ahead of 0.8886 while support lies at 0.8697.
EURJPY NEUTRAL Near-term directional triggers are at 111.83, a Fibonacci level, and 109.02.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
25 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDCHF 0.8017 resistance.
EURUSD BULLISH A break above 1.4500 would expose 1.4578. Initial support lies at 1.4259.
USDJPY BEARISH Decline through 76.34 would expose the key low of 75.95. Initial resistance is at 77.21 ahead of 77.86.
GBPUSD BULLISH As long as the support at 1.6305, a Fibonacci level, holds, watch for a move towards 1.6534 ahead of 1.6573.
USDCHF BULLISH Rise through 0.8017 would confirm the bull trend and expose 0.8178. Support lies at 0.7744.
AUDUSD BEARISH A move below 1.0315 would open the way for 1.0246. Near-term resistance is at 1.0559.
USDCAD BULLISH Initial resistance is at 0.9939, a break above which would expose 0.9969. Support lies at 0.9799.
EURCHF BULLISH Watch for a break above 1.1555 to confirm the bullish conditions and open the way for 1.1663. Support lies at 1.1165.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Initial resistance is at 0.8830 ahead of 0.8886 while support lies at 0.8697.
EURJPY NEUTRAL Near-term directional triggers are at 111.83, a Fibonacci level, and 109.02.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
25th of August 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
25 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Ahead of Friday's Jackson Hole speech risk sentiment appears to have very little underlying momentum. Down days are immediately squared up the next. Even though fresh liquidity is by no means a given, the market is struggling to come to terms with not just whether fresh QE is on the cards, but also what kind of a signal it may send as the marginal impact of additional liquidity appears to be waning. Yesterday's price action in gold may be a sign that some investors do not want to be excessively long QE-hedges ahead of the speech, but equities have rallied in anticipation of some relief. Nonetheless, growth concerns have not gone away - indeed our analysts have just lowered their global growth forecasts for 2012 to +3.3% from +3.8% previously. They also now expect the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England to keep their respective policy rates on hold at least until the end of 2012. Consequently, given the absence of compelling interest rate differentials, our economists have lowered the long-term end-2012 UBS forecast for USDJPY to 75 from 100. The end-2012 forecast for GBPUSD falls to 1.51 from 1.62. Overnight most Asian indices traded on a buoyant note, USDJPY traded 76.82-77.14 and EURUSD 1.4387-1.4416. Ahead today claims data are out in the US, while Sweden sees releases of consumer confidence and the unemployment rate.
EUR
Our analysts have lowered their 2012 growth forecasts for the Eurozone to +1.0%, from +2.0% previously, citing declining growth prospects abroad, the impact of fiscal tightening, and the latest market turmoil.
The German IFO business climate was weak at 108.7 vs 111.0 consensus. The current assessment index was 118.1 vs 119.8 consensus. Clearly the numbers are disappointing and will fuel concerns about the outlook for the German economy. IFO's Abberger said he would not yet talk of a recession but the economy is slowing down very significantly.
Eurozone industrial new orders for June fell 0.7% m/m and increased 11.1% y/y, lower than expectations for 0.4% m/m and 11.9% y/y. Our European economist notes that high volatility and a downward trend have emerged in Q2, with no strong signs of stabilization.
The ECB's overnight lending to banks jumps to a two-week high. Banks tapped the ECB marginal lending facility for EUR2.8 bn yesterday vs EUR555 mn the day before. However, the ECB allotted $0 mn in 7-day operation, after last week using the facility for the first time since February.
CHF
Despite some market expectation to the contrary, the risk of an SNB announcement on Wednesday morning did not materialise. This suggests that the bank might want to press ahead with its sight deposit target in its current form for another week (on previous Wednesdays, for each of the past 3 weeks, the SNB had announced new measures intended to weaken the Swiss franc). CHF 3m LIBOR continues to drift lower towards the SNB's target of "as close to zero as possible". It fixed at 0.00667% on Wednesday. 1m and 2m CHF LIBOR remain in negative territory.
JPY
Japan's Ministry of Finance announced it would set aside up to $100 bn of FX reserves mainly to encourage Japanese companies make acquisitions abroad. The funds are to be made available through the Japan Bank for International Cooperation.
NZD
In the Q2 retail trade survey, The volume of total retail sales rose 0.9% q/q in the June 2011 quarter (+1.1% y/y), following a 1.1% q/q increase in the March quarter (revised up from +0.9% q/q).
Our economists note that if markets stabilise, confidence rebounds and the recovery remains on track, we expect the RBNZ to be back on the tightening case by December. However, given the risks and uncertainties at the current moment, it is difficult to be confident about this timing i.e. it is not difficult to envisage a scenario where the RBNZ does not touch the OCR until sometime next year.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
25 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Ahead of Friday's Jackson Hole speech risk sentiment appears to have very little underlying momentum. Down days are immediately squared up the next. Even though fresh liquidity is by no means a given, the market is struggling to come to terms with not just whether fresh QE is on the cards, but also what kind of a signal it may send as the marginal impact of additional liquidity appears to be waning. Yesterday's price action in gold may be a sign that some investors do not want to be excessively long QE-hedges ahead of the speech, but equities have rallied in anticipation of some relief. Nonetheless, growth concerns have not gone away - indeed our analysts have just lowered their global growth forecasts for 2012 to +3.3% from +3.8% previously. They also now expect the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England to keep their respective policy rates on hold at least until the end of 2012. Consequently, given the absence of compelling interest rate differentials, our economists have lowered the long-term end-2012 UBS forecast for USDJPY to 75 from 100. The end-2012 forecast for GBPUSD falls to 1.51 from 1.62. Overnight most Asian indices traded on a buoyant note, USDJPY traded 76.82-77.14 and EURUSD 1.4387-1.4416. Ahead today claims data are out in the US, while Sweden sees releases of consumer confidence and the unemployment rate.
EUR
Our analysts have lowered their 2012 growth forecasts for the Eurozone to +1.0%, from +2.0% previously, citing declining growth prospects abroad, the impact of fiscal tightening, and the latest market turmoil.
The German IFO business climate was weak at 108.7 vs 111.0 consensus. The current assessment index was 118.1 vs 119.8 consensus. Clearly the numbers are disappointing and will fuel concerns about the outlook for the German economy. IFO's Abberger said he would not yet talk of a recession but the economy is slowing down very significantly.
Eurozone industrial new orders for June fell 0.7% m/m and increased 11.1% y/y, lower than expectations for 0.4% m/m and 11.9% y/y. Our European economist notes that high volatility and a downward trend have emerged in Q2, with no strong signs of stabilization.
The ECB's overnight lending to banks jumps to a two-week high. Banks tapped the ECB marginal lending facility for EUR2.8 bn yesterday vs EUR555 mn the day before. However, the ECB allotted $0 mn in 7-day operation, after last week using the facility for the first time since February.
CHF
Despite some market expectation to the contrary, the risk of an SNB announcement on Wednesday morning did not materialise. This suggests that the bank might want to press ahead with its sight deposit target in its current form for another week (on previous Wednesdays, for each of the past 3 weeks, the SNB had announced new measures intended to weaken the Swiss franc). CHF 3m LIBOR continues to drift lower towards the SNB's target of "as close to zero as possible". It fixed at 0.00667% on Wednesday. 1m and 2m CHF LIBOR remain in negative territory.
JPY
Japan's Ministry of Finance announced it would set aside up to $100 bn of FX reserves mainly to encourage Japanese companies make acquisitions abroad. The funds are to be made available through the Japan Bank for International Cooperation.
NZD
In the Q2 retail trade survey, The volume of total retail sales rose 0.9% q/q in the June 2011 quarter (+1.1% y/y), following a 1.1% q/q increase in the March quarter (revised up from +0.9% q/q).
Our economists note that if markets stabilise, confidence rebounds and the recovery remains on track, we expect the RBNZ to be back on the tightening case by December. However, given the risks and uncertainties at the current moment, it is difficult to be confident about this timing i.e. it is not difficult to envisage a scenario where the RBNZ does not touch the OCR until sometime next year.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
24th of August 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
24 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDCHF 0.8017 resistance.
EURUSD BULLISH A break above 1.4500 would open the way for 1.4578 ahead of the key high at 1.4697. Support lies at 1.4259.
USDJPY BEARISH A fall through 75.95 would expose the psychological 75.00 level. Initial resistance is at 77.31.
GBPUSD BULLISH A rise through 1.6573 would pave the way for gains towards 1.6618 and 1.6661. Near-term support lies at 1.6421.
USDCHF NEUTRAL The key upside trigger is at 0.8017 and support lies at 0.7744.
AUDUSD NEUTRAL The near-term directional triggers are at 1.0602 and 1.0315.
USDCAD BULLISH A clearance of 0.9939 would expose 0.9969. Near-term support lies at 0.9826.
EURCHF BULLISH A move above 1.1555 would confirm the bull trend and expose 1.1663. Support lies at 1.1165.
EURGBP BEARISH A decline through 0.8697 would open the way towards 0.8643, a key low from Aug 5. Resistance is at 0.8797, a key Fibonacci level.
EURJPY NEUTRAL The cross has resistance at 111.25 ahead of 111.83 while support lies at 109.02.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
24 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDCHF 0.8017 resistance.
EURUSD BULLISH A break above 1.4500 would open the way for 1.4578 ahead of the key high at 1.4697. Support lies at 1.4259.
USDJPY BEARISH A fall through 75.95 would expose the psychological 75.00 level. Initial resistance is at 77.31.
GBPUSD BULLISH A rise through 1.6573 would pave the way for gains towards 1.6618 and 1.6661. Near-term support lies at 1.6421.
USDCHF NEUTRAL The key upside trigger is at 0.8017 and support lies at 0.7744.
AUDUSD NEUTRAL The near-term directional triggers are at 1.0602 and 1.0315.
USDCAD BULLISH A clearance of 0.9939 would expose 0.9969. Near-term support lies at 0.9826.
EURCHF BULLISH A move above 1.1555 would confirm the bull trend and expose 1.1663. Support lies at 1.1165.
EURGBP BEARISH A decline through 0.8697 would open the way towards 0.8643, a key low from Aug 5. Resistance is at 0.8797, a key Fibonacci level.
EURJPY NEUTRAL The cross has resistance at 111.25 ahead of 111.83 while support lies at 109.02.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
24th of August 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
24 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk appetite took a knock during Asian hours as Japan was downgraded by Moody's. The step was merely catching up to other ratings agencies, but nonetheless reminded markets the stakes of the fiscal adjustment faced by many developed countries. Growth worries are the other recurring theme and investors have clearly started to see each weak incoming release as providing further incentive for Fed Chairman Bernanke to give a nod towards QE3 at Jackson Hole on Friday. We remain sceptical however, and our analysts do not expect another round of balance sheet expansion given the current price/activity setup. EURUSD traded 1.4385-1.4442, USDJPY 76.51-76.87. The Nikkei is currently trading close to 1% lower and other bourses in Asia are broadly soft. The Richmond Fed manufacturing index fell to -10 (cons. -5) taking it down to a two-year low. This, together with last week's soft Philly Fed survey, suggests the upcoming ISM manufacturing reading will likely have slipped into contraction (sub 50) territory. Our US economists are looking for a strong durable goods report on Wednesday. In Germany, the Ifo release is due while investors will also be keeping an eye out for potential developments in Switzerland.
EUR
The euro lost 50 pips after former Fed Chairman Greenspan said that "the euro is breaking down". The selling continued after Finland's Prime Minister Katainen said Finland might abandon plans to participate in a second rescue of Greece if Finland's collateral demands are not met.
The deputy leader of German Chancellor Merkel's parliamentary party said it would be useful if Italy chose to sell some of its gold reserves rather than rely on fresh borrowing to fund the fiscal deficit.
The German ZEW survey was very soft. The current index was 53.5 (cons. 85.0), and economic sentiment was -37.6 (cons. -26.0). Our European economist notes that the poor ZEW reading should not be over-interpreted. Sentiment in financial markets heavily influences the survey, and the pass-through to the real economy is likely to be limited.
German PMIs for July were mixed. Manufacturing came in at 52.0 (cons. 50.6), while the service reading was 50.4 (cons. 52.9).
Today we expect a dip in the IFO print to 109.7 (cons. 110). Any surprise to the downside could see growth expectations in the Eurozone adjust further and undermine risk..
CHF
Each Wednesday for each of the past 3 weeks, at approximately 7am GMT, the SNB has announced new measures intended to weaken the Swiss franc. So far the central bank has focused on flooding the money market with liquidity, in a bid to drive down CHF money market rates.
However, these liquidity measures appear to be approaching their natural limit: 1m and 2m CHF Libor are already fixing in negative territory and 3m Libor - the SNB's policy rate - fixed just above zero on Tuesday (at +0.0075%). Another round of liquidity injections could risk turning the policy rate negative, a step the SNB may be unwilling to take, especially given the stated intention is to set the policy rate "as close to zero as possible". As such, investors will be on watch for any updates.
JPY
Japan was downgraded by Moody's to AA3, outlook stable. This was not unexpected as Moody's was catching up to other agencies and was approaching the end of its review period, which the agency had flagged well in advance.
In its release the agency noted that the build-up in debt since the 2009 recession was a problem, while frequent changes in the governing administration have prevented implementation of long-term strategies. The country's self-funded nature was considered positive.
NZD
New Zealand trade numbers came out better than expected, the goods surplus for July was N$129m vs. N$125 deficit consensus. The 12m to July run rate is also ahead of market expectations at N$1.31bn.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
24 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk appetite took a knock during Asian hours as Japan was downgraded by Moody's. The step was merely catching up to other ratings agencies, but nonetheless reminded markets the stakes of the fiscal adjustment faced by many developed countries. Growth worries are the other recurring theme and investors have clearly started to see each weak incoming release as providing further incentive for Fed Chairman Bernanke to give a nod towards QE3 at Jackson Hole on Friday. We remain sceptical however, and our analysts do not expect another round of balance sheet expansion given the current price/activity setup. EURUSD traded 1.4385-1.4442, USDJPY 76.51-76.87. The Nikkei is currently trading close to 1% lower and other bourses in Asia are broadly soft. The Richmond Fed manufacturing index fell to -10 (cons. -5) taking it down to a two-year low. This, together with last week's soft Philly Fed survey, suggests the upcoming ISM manufacturing reading will likely have slipped into contraction (sub 50) territory. Our US economists are looking for a strong durable goods report on Wednesday. In Germany, the Ifo release is due while investors will also be keeping an eye out for potential developments in Switzerland.
EUR
The euro lost 50 pips after former Fed Chairman Greenspan said that "the euro is breaking down". The selling continued after Finland's Prime Minister Katainen said Finland might abandon plans to participate in a second rescue of Greece if Finland's collateral demands are not met.
The deputy leader of German Chancellor Merkel's parliamentary party said it would be useful if Italy chose to sell some of its gold reserves rather than rely on fresh borrowing to fund the fiscal deficit.
The German ZEW survey was very soft. The current index was 53.5 (cons. 85.0), and economic sentiment was -37.6 (cons. -26.0). Our European economist notes that the poor ZEW reading should not be over-interpreted. Sentiment in financial markets heavily influences the survey, and the pass-through to the real economy is likely to be limited.
German PMIs for July were mixed. Manufacturing came in at 52.0 (cons. 50.6), while the service reading was 50.4 (cons. 52.9).
Today we expect a dip in the IFO print to 109.7 (cons. 110). Any surprise to the downside could see growth expectations in the Eurozone adjust further and undermine risk..
CHF
Each Wednesday for each of the past 3 weeks, at approximately 7am GMT, the SNB has announced new measures intended to weaken the Swiss franc. So far the central bank has focused on flooding the money market with liquidity, in a bid to drive down CHF money market rates.
However, these liquidity measures appear to be approaching their natural limit: 1m and 2m CHF Libor are already fixing in negative territory and 3m Libor - the SNB's policy rate - fixed just above zero on Tuesday (at +0.0075%). Another round of liquidity injections could risk turning the policy rate negative, a step the SNB may be unwilling to take, especially given the stated intention is to set the policy rate "as close to zero as possible". As such, investors will be on watch for any updates.
JPY
Japan was downgraded by Moody's to AA3, outlook stable. This was not unexpected as Moody's was catching up to other agencies and was approaching the end of its review period, which the agency had flagged well in advance.
In its release the agency noted that the build-up in debt since the 2009 recession was a problem, while frequent changes in the governing administration have prevented implementation of long-term strategies. The country's self-funded nature was considered positive.
NZD
New Zealand trade numbers came out better than expected, the goods surplus for July was N$129m vs. N$125 deficit consensus. The 12m to July run rate is also ahead of market expectations at N$1.31bn.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
23rd of August 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
23 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURGBP 0.8643 support.
EURUSD BULLISH A rise through 1.4536 would open the way for gains towards 1.4697, a key high. Near-term support lies at 1.4226.
USDJPY BEARISH A move below 75.95, the key low, would expose the psychological 75.00 level. Near-term resistance is at 77.31.
GBPUSD BULLISH A break above 1.6618 would pave the way for 1.6661. Support lies at 1.6421.
USDCHF NEUTRAL The pair has resistance at 0.8017 and support at 0.7744.
AUDUSD BEARISH Initial support lies at 1.0315, a break here would expose 1.0246. Resistance is at 1.0559.
USDCAD BULLISH A clearance of 0.9939 would reinforce the bull trend and open the way towards 0.9969. Near-term support lies at 0.9799.
EURCHF NEUTRAL The near-term directional triggers are at 1.1555 and 1.1046.
EURGBP BEARISH Key support lies at 0.8643; a move below this level would expose 0.8611. Resistance is at 0.8797, a Fibonacci level.
EURJPY BEARISH A decline through 109.02 would expose 108.03, the key low from Aug 11. Initial resistance is at 111.25.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
23 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURGBP 0.8643 support.
EURUSD BULLISH A rise through 1.4536 would open the way for gains towards 1.4697, a key high. Near-term support lies at 1.4226.
USDJPY BEARISH A move below 75.95, the key low, would expose the psychological 75.00 level. Near-term resistance is at 77.31.
GBPUSD BULLISH A break above 1.6618 would pave the way for 1.6661. Support lies at 1.6421.
USDCHF NEUTRAL The pair has resistance at 0.8017 and support at 0.7744.
AUDUSD BEARISH Initial support lies at 1.0315, a break here would expose 1.0246. Resistance is at 1.0559.
USDCAD BULLISH A clearance of 0.9939 would reinforce the bull trend and open the way towards 0.9969. Near-term support lies at 0.9799.
EURCHF NEUTRAL The near-term directional triggers are at 1.1555 and 1.1046.
EURGBP BEARISH Key support lies at 0.8643; a move below this level would expose 0.8611. Resistance is at 0.8797, a Fibonacci level.
EURJPY BEARISH A decline through 109.02 would expose 108.03, the key low from Aug 11. Initial resistance is at 111.25.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
23rd of August 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
23 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk appetite was somewhat subdued overnight. However as US stocks managed to finish in the positive, most Asian markets have responded accordingly. A lack of data and fresh event risk appears to have steadied markets but the release of several Eurozone indicators will put the focus back on growth in the region, which has held up relatively better than the US throughout the year but now appears increasingly at risk. Elsewhere, FX developments remain troubling for the Japanese and Swiss authorities, for despite warnings and sustained operations in money markets respectively, the yen and franc's losses against the USD and EUR appear to have stalled as markets wait for the next step. In the current market environment it remains to be seen how they can respond unilaterally but the longer fresh measures are put off the more costly any form of outright intervention could prove in the medium term. Ahead today PMI figures in Germany and the Eurozone are due, along with other activity indices. In the US, new home sales are out. St. Louis Fed chairman Bullard said yesterday that the FOMC will definitely act if the economy weakens substantially and deflation risk reappears. We expect Bernanke to lay out similar markers for fresh QE later this week at Jackson Hole.
EUR
German Finance Minister Schaeuble said that the EUR was a strong currency and that developments in the German labour market were positive. He repeated his opposition to the introduction of eurobonds, again insisting on the need to maintain the risk of different borrowing costs for different countries so that market discipline could be imposed. Finland's Prime Minister Katainen said he is sceptical of Eurobonds, and described them as risky.
Moody's said that bilateral agreements on collateral to facilitate a second Greek rescue would be credit-negative for Greece. The agency judged that the pursuit of such agreements could delay the next tranche of aid for Greece and so precipitate payment default. Also, it was claimed that a proliferation of collateral agreements would limit the availability of funds for future programs. Moody's said it expects other Eurozone members to ultimately reject the Finland-Greece collateral deal.
ECB Governing Council member Nowotny said that he feared Eurozone governments would not be able to complete the ratification of the EFSF's new powers by October.
The ECB announced that EUR14.18 bn worth of SMP bond purchases settled last week, down from EUR22 bn the week before.
CHF
Average sight deposits held at the SNB were CHF136.6 bn last week, up from an average of CHF 61.15bn for the week before. The SNB's stated ambition is to raise sight deposits to CHF200 bn so given that the target is now within reach, this raises the possibility of new measures begin introduced.
Swiss Foreign Minister Calmy-Rey said that the franc is 'clearly overvalued'. She added that 'energetic intervention' was needed and all monetary-policy instruments should be used.
JPY
Japanese Finance Minister Noda said that coordinated intervention could not be ruled out and called current JPY price action 'one-sided'. Multiple media reports said the MoF was considering intervention but so far no action has been witnessed.
The ruling DPJ has announced its intention to hold a party leader vote on Aug. 29.
AUD
RBA Deputy Governor Ric Battellino noted overall Australian growth is turning out to be slower than expected and setting policy will be a challenge up ahead. Overnight a private-sector flash PMI release for China showed manufacturing continued to contract, pointing to ongoing challenges for the Australian economy.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
23 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk appetite was somewhat subdued overnight. However as US stocks managed to finish in the positive, most Asian markets have responded accordingly. A lack of data and fresh event risk appears to have steadied markets but the release of several Eurozone indicators will put the focus back on growth in the region, which has held up relatively better than the US throughout the year but now appears increasingly at risk. Elsewhere, FX developments remain troubling for the Japanese and Swiss authorities, for despite warnings and sustained operations in money markets respectively, the yen and franc's losses against the USD and EUR appear to have stalled as markets wait for the next step. In the current market environment it remains to be seen how they can respond unilaterally but the longer fresh measures are put off the more costly any form of outright intervention could prove in the medium term. Ahead today PMI figures in Germany and the Eurozone are due, along with other activity indices. In the US, new home sales are out. St. Louis Fed chairman Bullard said yesterday that the FOMC will definitely act if the economy weakens substantially and deflation risk reappears. We expect Bernanke to lay out similar markers for fresh QE later this week at Jackson Hole.
EUR
German Finance Minister Schaeuble said that the EUR was a strong currency and that developments in the German labour market were positive. He repeated his opposition to the introduction of eurobonds, again insisting on the need to maintain the risk of different borrowing costs for different countries so that market discipline could be imposed. Finland's Prime Minister Katainen said he is sceptical of Eurobonds, and described them as risky.
Moody's said that bilateral agreements on collateral to facilitate a second Greek rescue would be credit-negative for Greece. The agency judged that the pursuit of such agreements could delay the next tranche of aid for Greece and so precipitate payment default. Also, it was claimed that a proliferation of collateral agreements would limit the availability of funds for future programs. Moody's said it expects other Eurozone members to ultimately reject the Finland-Greece collateral deal.
ECB Governing Council member Nowotny said that he feared Eurozone governments would not be able to complete the ratification of the EFSF's new powers by October.
The ECB announced that EUR14.18 bn worth of SMP bond purchases settled last week, down from EUR22 bn the week before.
CHF
Average sight deposits held at the SNB were CHF136.6 bn last week, up from an average of CHF 61.15bn for the week before. The SNB's stated ambition is to raise sight deposits to CHF200 bn so given that the target is now within reach, this raises the possibility of new measures begin introduced.
Swiss Foreign Minister Calmy-Rey said that the franc is 'clearly overvalued'. She added that 'energetic intervention' was needed and all monetary-policy instruments should be used.
JPY
Japanese Finance Minister Noda said that coordinated intervention could not be ruled out and called current JPY price action 'one-sided'. Multiple media reports said the MoF was considering intervention but so far no action has been witnessed.
The ruling DPJ has announced its intention to hold a party leader vote on Aug. 29.
AUD
RBA Deputy Governor Ric Battellino noted overall Australian growth is turning out to be slower than expected and setting policy will be a challenge up ahead. Overnight a private-sector flash PMI release for China showed manufacturing continued to contract, pointing to ongoing challenges for the Australian economy.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Monday, August 22, 2011
22nd of August 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
22 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDJPY defines new low at 75.95.
EURUSD BULLISH A move above 1.4536 would open the way for gains towards 1.4697. Support lies at 1.4226.
USDJPY BEARISH The pair defined a new low at 75.95, a move below which would expose the psychological level at 75.00. Initial resistance is at 77.31.
GBPUSD BULLISH The pair clears 1.6592; Initial resistance is at 1.6618 ahead of 1.6661. Support lies at 1.6421.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Initial resistance is at 0.8017 and support lies at 0.7744 ahead of 0.7549.
AUDUSD BEARISH A fall through 1.0315 would expose 1.0246. Initial resistance is at 1.0559.
USDCAD BULLISH A clearance of 0.9939 would open the way for 0.9969. Near-term support lies at 0.9799.
EURCHF NEUTRAL The cross has key resistance at 1.1555 and support lies at 1.1046.
EURGBP BEARISH Key support lies at 0.8643, a break here would expose 0.8611. Initial resistance is at 0.8797, a Fibonacci level.
EURJPY BEARISH A break below 108.93 would expose 108.03, the key low from Aug 11. Initial resistance is at 111.25.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
22 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDJPY defines new low at 75.95.
EURUSD BULLISH A move above 1.4536 would open the way for gains towards 1.4697. Support lies at 1.4226.
USDJPY BEARISH The pair defined a new low at 75.95, a move below which would expose the psychological level at 75.00. Initial resistance is at 77.31.
GBPUSD BULLISH The pair clears 1.6592; Initial resistance is at 1.6618 ahead of 1.6661. Support lies at 1.6421.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Initial resistance is at 0.8017 and support lies at 0.7744 ahead of 0.7549.
AUDUSD BEARISH A fall through 1.0315 would expose 1.0246. Initial resistance is at 1.0559.
USDCAD BULLISH A clearance of 0.9939 would open the way for 0.9969. Near-term support lies at 0.9799.
EURCHF NEUTRAL The cross has key resistance at 1.1555 and support lies at 1.1046.
EURGBP BEARISH Key support lies at 0.8643, a break here would expose 0.8611. Initial resistance is at 0.8797, a Fibonacci level.
EURJPY BEARISH A break below 108.93 would expose 108.03, the key low from Aug 11. Initial resistance is at 111.25.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
22nd of August 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
22 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Overnight price action was relatively subdued but risk sentiment remains broadly soft as the market prices in further economic weakness after last week's string of worrying data out of the US. USDJPY remains the focal point as investors wonder when the MoF will instruct the BoJ to intervene as the yen tests record highs against the dollar. In what may prove to be a pivotal week for policy expectations in general, Fed Chairman Bernanke's delivery at Jackson Hole could reveal whether the Fed is on the path towards further easing, even though inflation conditions are markedly different compared to 2011 and opposition within the FOMC is expected to be stronger. Mindful that macro forces may favour further USDJPY downside, Japanese Finance Minister Noda warned that moves were becoming 'one-sided' and did not rule out coordinated intervention, though given the lukewarm reception to the last blast of USDJPY buying by its G7 partners, Japan may yet find itself alone in entering markets. There are very few data releases on Monday though policy developments on both FX and broader fiscal issues across the Eurozone will be monitored as governments struggle to find away out of returning economic difficulties. USDJPY traded 76.53-77.16, EURUSD 1.4355-1.4392.
EUR
Germany's Chancellor Merkel and Finance Minister Schaeuble restated their opposition to eurobonds over the weekend. Schaeuble said that, until deeper integration is achieved, different yields for different countries are needed to provide "the incentive to run a solid economy, or the punishment if you are not running it properly." Speaking on national television, Merkel said that "eurobonds are exactly the wrong answer to the current crisis - they lead us to a debt union and not to a stability union". France's Prime Minister Fillon also expressed reservations, claiming that a move to eurobonds could push up the cost of servicing France's debt and perhaps cast doubt on France's AAA rating.
On Monday Morning Schaeuble noted that there has been a recent re-pricing of optimistic expectations, but again said that the EUR was a strong currency, and developments in the German labour market were positive. He also noted that Switzerland currently faced a 'situation of isolation' and why the country was 'considering a euro peg'.
ECB's Nowotny said that he feared Eurozone governments would not be able to complete the agreed EFSF adjustments by October.
ECB Executive Board member Stark said that the ECB's SMP bond buying program is a temporary measure designed to buy time. Later on Monday, the ECB is due to announce the value of bond purchases that settled last week under the SMP. ?22 bn settled the week before, marking the highest level of activity since the program began in May 2010.
Dow Jones newswires reported that the French and German finance ministers are due to meet on Tuesday.
CHF
The SNB is due to release the August edition of its "Monthly Statistical Bulletin". This will provide the latest snapshot of the SNB's balance sheet as at the end of June. Unfortunately, this predates the introduction of extraordinary measures designed to weaken the CHF, and so the precise balance sheet impact will not be known for another two months. Separately, the amount of sight deposits held by Swiss institutions at the SNB is also due for release. This is a far more current statistic, depicting the state of play as it was on Friday evening. The SNB's stated ambition is to raise sight deposits to CHF200 bn so this data will provide a useful measure of how much progress there has been toward this objective.
SonntagZeitung reported that 63% of the Swiss public would support SNB intervention, and that 27% are in favour of setting an exchange rate target.
GBP
BoE MPC member Weale said he is now less optimistic on UK growth, but that now is not the time for more quantitative easing. Weale had been calling for a rate hike for several months but both he and fellow serial-dissenter Dale reversed course at the August policy meeting, and voted in line with mainstream opinion.
The UK's public finances show that, for the four months to July, the cumulative deficit was only GBP40.1 bn compared with GBP43.1 bn during the same period in 2010. Our analysts note these numbers are better than expected.
JPY
USDJPY fell to new record lows again on Friday evening, soon after Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Nakao reportedly said that he does not intend to intervene frequently. Over the weekend, the Nikkei newspaper reported that intervention could be imminent, citing an unnamed MoF official that "we'll make a decision after looking at the market at the start of the week."
Japanese Finance Minister Noda said on Monday that coordinated intervention could not be ruled out and called current yen price action 'one-sided'. Several press reports indicated the MoF was considering intervention but no action has been witnessed so far.
CAD
BoC Governor Carney struck a dovish note, observing that "considerable external headwinds" are now blowing even harder over the Canadian economy and that consequently Q2 growth would likely be minimal or even negative. He added that persistent CAD strength is compounding the problem of sluggish demand from overseas. Nevertheless, he held the door open to future rate hikes, insisting that the BoC could hike even if the Fed does not ("we do not outsource monetary policy to the Fed"). However, he conceded that the BoC would be "prudent" in any possible tightening of monetary policy. Coming late on Friday, there was no currency reaction to his remarks.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
22 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Overnight price action was relatively subdued but risk sentiment remains broadly soft as the market prices in further economic weakness after last week's string of worrying data out of the US. USDJPY remains the focal point as investors wonder when the MoF will instruct the BoJ to intervene as the yen tests record highs against the dollar. In what may prove to be a pivotal week for policy expectations in general, Fed Chairman Bernanke's delivery at Jackson Hole could reveal whether the Fed is on the path towards further easing, even though inflation conditions are markedly different compared to 2011 and opposition within the FOMC is expected to be stronger. Mindful that macro forces may favour further USDJPY downside, Japanese Finance Minister Noda warned that moves were becoming 'one-sided' and did not rule out coordinated intervention, though given the lukewarm reception to the last blast of USDJPY buying by its G7 partners, Japan may yet find itself alone in entering markets. There are very few data releases on Monday though policy developments on both FX and broader fiscal issues across the Eurozone will be monitored as governments struggle to find away out of returning economic difficulties. USDJPY traded 76.53-77.16, EURUSD 1.4355-1.4392.
EUR
Germany's Chancellor Merkel and Finance Minister Schaeuble restated their opposition to eurobonds over the weekend. Schaeuble said that, until deeper integration is achieved, different yields for different countries are needed to provide "the incentive to run a solid economy, or the punishment if you are not running it properly." Speaking on national television, Merkel said that "eurobonds are exactly the wrong answer to the current crisis - they lead us to a debt union and not to a stability union". France's Prime Minister Fillon also expressed reservations, claiming that a move to eurobonds could push up the cost of servicing France's debt and perhaps cast doubt on France's AAA rating.
On Monday Morning Schaeuble noted that there has been a recent re-pricing of optimistic expectations, but again said that the EUR was a strong currency, and developments in the German labour market were positive. He also noted that Switzerland currently faced a 'situation of isolation' and why the country was 'considering a euro peg'.
ECB's Nowotny said that he feared Eurozone governments would not be able to complete the agreed EFSF adjustments by October.
ECB Executive Board member Stark said that the ECB's SMP bond buying program is a temporary measure designed to buy time. Later on Monday, the ECB is due to announce the value of bond purchases that settled last week under the SMP. ?22 bn settled the week before, marking the highest level of activity since the program began in May 2010.
Dow Jones newswires reported that the French and German finance ministers are due to meet on Tuesday.
CHF
The SNB is due to release the August edition of its "Monthly Statistical Bulletin". This will provide the latest snapshot of the SNB's balance sheet as at the end of June. Unfortunately, this predates the introduction of extraordinary measures designed to weaken the CHF, and so the precise balance sheet impact will not be known for another two months. Separately, the amount of sight deposits held by Swiss institutions at the SNB is also due for release. This is a far more current statistic, depicting the state of play as it was on Friday evening. The SNB's stated ambition is to raise sight deposits to CHF200 bn so this data will provide a useful measure of how much progress there has been toward this objective.
SonntagZeitung reported that 63% of the Swiss public would support SNB intervention, and that 27% are in favour of setting an exchange rate target.
GBP
BoE MPC member Weale said he is now less optimistic on UK growth, but that now is not the time for more quantitative easing. Weale had been calling for a rate hike for several months but both he and fellow serial-dissenter Dale reversed course at the August policy meeting, and voted in line with mainstream opinion.
The UK's public finances show that, for the four months to July, the cumulative deficit was only GBP40.1 bn compared with GBP43.1 bn during the same period in 2010. Our analysts note these numbers are better than expected.
JPY
USDJPY fell to new record lows again on Friday evening, soon after Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Nakao reportedly said that he does not intend to intervene frequently. Over the weekend, the Nikkei newspaper reported that intervention could be imminent, citing an unnamed MoF official that "we'll make a decision after looking at the market at the start of the week."
Japanese Finance Minister Noda said on Monday that coordinated intervention could not be ruled out and called current yen price action 'one-sided'. Several press reports indicated the MoF was considering intervention but no action has been witnessed so far.
CAD
BoC Governor Carney struck a dovish note, observing that "considerable external headwinds" are now blowing even harder over the Canadian economy and that consequently Q2 growth would likely be minimal or even negative. He added that persistent CAD strength is compounding the problem of sluggish demand from overseas. Nevertheless, he held the door open to future rate hikes, insisting that the BoC could hike even if the Fed does not ("we do not outsource monetary policy to the Fed"). However, he conceded that the BoC would be "prudent" in any possible tightening of monetary policy. Coming late on Friday, there was no currency reaction to his remarks.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Friday, August 19, 2011
19th of August 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
19 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURGBP 0.8643 support.
EURUSD BULLISH A clearance of 1.4452 would expose 1.4536. Support lies at 1.4226 ahead of 1.4150.
USDJPY BEARISH Momentum is negative; a move below 76.25, the key low, would expose the psychological level of 75.00. Initial resistance is at 77.31.
GBPUSD BULLISH A move above 1.6592 would pave the way for 1.6661. Support lies at 1.6323.
USDCHF NEUTRAL The pair is heavy below 0.8000; the near-term directional triggers are 0.8278 and 0.7744.
AUDUSD BEARISH The fall through 1.0331 has opened 1.0246 ahead of 1.0111. Initial resistance is at 1.0559.
USDCAD BULLISH A rise through 0.9969 would expose 1.0010, a key high from Aug 9. Support lies at 0.9799.
EURCHF NEUTRAL The cross has resistance at 1.1555 while support lies at 1.1046.
EURGBP BEARISH Key support lies at 0.8643; a break below this level would expose 0.8611. Initial resistance is at 0.8745.
EURJPY BEARISH A move below 108.93 would expose 108.03, a key low from Aug 11. Initial resistance is at 110.72.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
19 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURGBP 0.8643 support.
EURUSD BULLISH A clearance of 1.4452 would expose 1.4536. Support lies at 1.4226 ahead of 1.4150.
USDJPY BEARISH Momentum is negative; a move below 76.25, the key low, would expose the psychological level of 75.00. Initial resistance is at 77.31.
GBPUSD BULLISH A move above 1.6592 would pave the way for 1.6661. Support lies at 1.6323.
USDCHF NEUTRAL The pair is heavy below 0.8000; the near-term directional triggers are 0.8278 and 0.7744.
AUDUSD BEARISH The fall through 1.0331 has opened 1.0246 ahead of 1.0111. Initial resistance is at 1.0559.
USDCAD BULLISH A rise through 0.9969 would expose 1.0010, a key high from Aug 9. Support lies at 0.9799.
EURCHF NEUTRAL The cross has resistance at 1.1555 while support lies at 1.1046.
EURGBP BEARISH Key support lies at 0.8643; a break below this level would expose 0.8611. Initial resistance is at 0.8745.
EURJPY BEARISH A move below 108.93 would expose 108.03, a key low from Aug 11. Initial resistance is at 110.72.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
19th of August 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
19 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Asian markets traded on a very soft tone as global equities suffered amid renewed fears over the US economy and beyond. The particular weakness in the banking sector also shows investors are not yet convinced funding problems have been resolved. However, macro numbers were the driving force as a toxic mix of higher price pressures and weak employment statistics pointed to stagflation. US CPI was stronger than expected at 3.6% y/y (cons. 3.3%). Even the core reading rose to 1.8% y/y (cons. 1.7, potentially making it more difficult for the Fed to contemplate another round of stimulus, for which anticipation is building ahead of Fed Chairman Bernanke's Jackson Hole appearance next week. However, New York Fed President Dudley said that ensuring financial stability is now as important to the Fed as steering monetary policy, a clue perhaps that the Fed might be willing to consider another round of stimulus even if inflationary pressures remain elevated. At the same time, the August Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey plunged to -30.7 (cons. 2.0), taking the index back to levels last seen in March 2009.
Our analysts note that this weakness implies the wider ISM survey will likely slip below 50 in the near future, taking it into contractionary territory. Initial claims increased to 408K (cons. 399K). Ahead today, data releases are limited and we expect markets to remain in headline-watching mode for economies and any idiosyncratic risk events. Overnight USDJPY traded 76.46~76.94 and EURUSD 1.4294-1.4339.
EUR & CHF
The New York Fed announced that the SNB had tapped the Fed's dollar swap lines for $200 million in the week ended Aug. 17. The news suggests that at least one Swiss bank may have experienced a dollar shortage during the past week but was unable to meet its needs in the market. The line has not been used since at least May 2010, and follows revelations that a single unidentified Eurozone bank requested $0.5 bn from the ECB yesterday. Given that commercial banks who ask their own central banks for the Fed's dollars must pay dearly (Fed effective + 100 bps) for the privilege, swap line activation is an indication that all is not well in dollar funding markets. However, investors may take some comfort from the fact that, at $0.7 bn in total, current usage of Fed swap lines is much lower than the $550bn worth of activity seen at the peak of the crisis.
JPY
Despite the JPY remaining at strong levels, there was no recorded official action. Japanese Finance Minister Noda said the government and BoJ will take appropriate measures when necessary. He also noted that speculative moves were behind the JPY's gains but wouldn't comment specifically on monetary policy.
AUD
Australia PM Gillard said the high AUD is likely to be sustained for some time; and there are no government plans to adjust AUD strength.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
19 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Asian markets traded on a very soft tone as global equities suffered amid renewed fears over the US economy and beyond. The particular weakness in the banking sector also shows investors are not yet convinced funding problems have been resolved. However, macro numbers were the driving force as a toxic mix of higher price pressures and weak employment statistics pointed to stagflation. US CPI was stronger than expected at 3.6% y/y (cons. 3.3%). Even the core reading rose to 1.8% y/y (cons. 1.7, potentially making it more difficult for the Fed to contemplate another round of stimulus, for which anticipation is building ahead of Fed Chairman Bernanke's Jackson Hole appearance next week. However, New York Fed President Dudley said that ensuring financial stability is now as important to the Fed as steering monetary policy, a clue perhaps that the Fed might be willing to consider another round of stimulus even if inflationary pressures remain elevated. At the same time, the August Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey plunged to -30.7 (cons. 2.0), taking the index back to levels last seen in March 2009.
Our analysts note that this weakness implies the wider ISM survey will likely slip below 50 in the near future, taking it into contractionary territory. Initial claims increased to 408K (cons. 399K). Ahead today, data releases are limited and we expect markets to remain in headline-watching mode for economies and any idiosyncratic risk events. Overnight USDJPY traded 76.46~76.94 and EURUSD 1.4294-1.4339.
EUR & CHF
The New York Fed announced that the SNB had tapped the Fed's dollar swap lines for $200 million in the week ended Aug. 17. The news suggests that at least one Swiss bank may have experienced a dollar shortage during the past week but was unable to meet its needs in the market. The line has not been used since at least May 2010, and follows revelations that a single unidentified Eurozone bank requested $0.5 bn from the ECB yesterday. Given that commercial banks who ask their own central banks for the Fed's dollars must pay dearly (Fed effective + 100 bps) for the privilege, swap line activation is an indication that all is not well in dollar funding markets. However, investors may take some comfort from the fact that, at $0.7 bn in total, current usage of Fed swap lines is much lower than the $550bn worth of activity seen at the peak of the crisis.
JPY
Despite the JPY remaining at strong levels, there was no recorded official action. Japanese Finance Minister Noda said the government and BoJ will take appropriate measures when necessary. He also noted that speculative moves were behind the JPY's gains but wouldn't comment specifically on monetary policy.
AUD
Australia PM Gillard said the high AUD is likely to be sustained for some time; and there are no government plans to adjust AUD strength.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Thursday, August 18, 2011
18th of August 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
18 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
GBPUSD clears 1.6547.
EURUSD BULLISH A move above 1.4536 would open the way towards 1.4697. Initial support lies at 1.4226.
USDJPY BEARISH A break below 76.25, the key low from Mar 17, would expose the psychological level of 75.00. Initial resistance is at 77.31.
GBPUSD BULLISH The rise through 1.6547 has opened the way for further gains towards 1.6661 and 1.6747. Initial support lies at 1.6323.
USDCHF NEUTRAL The near-term directional triggers are at 0.8278 and 0.7549.
AUDUSD BEARISH As long as the resistance at 1.0641, a key retracement level, holds, watch for a move below 1.0406 to expose 1.0331.
USDCAD BULLISH A clearance of 0.9872 would expose 0.9919. Near-term support lies at 0.9742.
EURCHF NEUTRAL The cross has resistance at 1.1781 while support lies at 1.0686.
EURGBP BEARISH The cross now heads towards 0.8643 and 0.8611. Initial resistance is at 0.8830.
EURJPY BEARISH A violation of 108.93 would expose 108.03, a key low from Aug 11. Initial resistance is at 112.71.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
18 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
GBPUSD clears 1.6547.
EURUSD BULLISH A move above 1.4536 would open the way towards 1.4697. Initial support lies at 1.4226.
USDJPY BEARISH A break below 76.25, the key low from Mar 17, would expose the psychological level of 75.00. Initial resistance is at 77.31.
GBPUSD BULLISH The rise through 1.6547 has opened the way for further gains towards 1.6661 and 1.6747. Initial support lies at 1.6323.
USDCHF NEUTRAL The near-term directional triggers are at 0.8278 and 0.7549.
AUDUSD BEARISH As long as the resistance at 1.0641, a key retracement level, holds, watch for a move below 1.0406 to expose 1.0331.
USDCAD BULLISH A clearance of 0.9872 would expose 0.9919. Near-term support lies at 0.9742.
EURCHF NEUTRAL The cross has resistance at 1.1781 while support lies at 1.0686.
EURGBP BEARISH The cross now heads towards 0.8643 and 0.8611. Initial resistance is at 0.8830.
EURJPY BEARISH A violation of 108.93 would expose 108.03, a key low from Aug 11. Initial resistance is at 112.71.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
18th of August 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
18 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The Swiss franc opened on a soft note in Europe as investors began to price in a strengthening in official resolve to combat the currency's strength. Yesterday afternoon the Swiss government launched a package of measures for industries affected by the exchange rate and also confirmed the SNB's authority to set a floor on EURCHF single-handedly if it sees fit to do so. However, government consultation will still be needed if the SNB wishes to impose capital controls at some point in the future. Further liquidity injections and action in the FX swaps market are likely to continue but the effects are expected to be muted, especially as sight deposit levels approach target. Overnight during Asian trading risk softened as growth concerns continue to weigh on sentiment. Japanese authorities noted they are continuing to monitor exchange rates but this hasn't prevented USDJPY remaining extremely heavy as markets are braced for further disappointments. Ahead today, activity and housing figures aside, inflation numbers are out in the US and any downside surprise in the core figure could further increase expectations of renewed QE. Jobless claims figures are also due. USDJPY traded 76.53-76.72 and EURUSD 1.4383-1.4440.
EUR
The ECB's 1-week dollar refinancing operation was tapped for the first time since February. The facility was first established during the peak of the crisis to help distribute dollars provided to the ECB via the Fed's swap lines. The ECB lent $0.5 bn at 1.1% to a single unnamed financial institution, providing another sign that demand for dollar funding is creeping higher. This comes after a week in which EURUSD basis swaps showed dollar demand has risen to levels unseen since Q1 2009.
Headline CPI in the Eurozone was in-line with consensus at +2.5% y/y. The core number was significantly softer however at +1.2% y/y. Our European economist notes that the drop in core CPI is totally driven by a fall in the footwear and clothing components in Italy (due to sales in July). The drop in core is thus temporary and they expect core to stay at +1.2% in August and then jump back to +1.6% in September, when the new clothing season starts.
The regional leaders of the Eurozone have started to offer their opinions on the Franco-German agreements this week and the Luxembourg Finance Minister noting that nothing new was mentioned, but there is a necessity to implement what has already been agreed upon. Meanwhile, other countries continue to stress that the upcoming Greek package must be collateralised for their own contributions - Finland has been very active on this issue and today the Austrian Finance Ministry notes that the Greece collateral model needed to be opened to all Eurozone countries, and is looking for a model where some countries would get more collateral than others.
GBP
Sterling dropped briefly, but sharply, after dovish minutes from the BoE's August 4 meeting were published. Significantly, MPC members Weale and Dale abandoned their call for an immediate rate hike, and instead voted with the other seven MPC members to keep the policy rate unchanged at 0.5%. The vote split for further asset purchases remained at 8-1. Although only MPC member Posen voted for more QE, it was noted that several other MPC members would be willing to consider additional easing if circumstances were to call for it.
UK labour data was soft yesterday with the claimant count rising by 37k and the ILO unemployment rate increasing to 7.9% (cons. 7.7%). Ahead today retail sales in the UK are due and the market is looking for 0.1%y/y growth in the core figure.
CHF
EURCHF fell sharply on Wednesday morning after the SNB failed to impose an exchange rate target. Instead, less radical policy tools were announced to help weaken the CHF. The bank committed to increasing sight deposits held at the SNB to CHF 200 bn (from the previous target of CHF 120 bn). The SNB also restated its intention to use FX swaps in inject further CHF liquidity. This will likely lead to balance sheet expansion as there are insufficient bills and repos remaining on the SNB's balance sheet to provide for the full CHF 80 bn in additional liquidity.
At a subsequent press conference government officials announced a CHF 2 bn aid package to help exporters and the tourism industry cope with the strong Swiss franc.
More significantly, Finance Minister Widmer-Schlumpf said the government would support any measure that the SNB thinks is appropriate to decisively weaken the CHF. It was stressed that the SNB is in charge of monetary policy, and that the government would not be involved if the SNB chooses to set an exchange rate floor or a peg. However, the government stated too that other measures such as capital controls would have to be agreed on in consultation with the government. The comments are best interpreted as a public display of government approval for any future intervention the SNB may decide to carry out.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
18 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The Swiss franc opened on a soft note in Europe as investors began to price in a strengthening in official resolve to combat the currency's strength. Yesterday afternoon the Swiss government launched a package of measures for industries affected by the exchange rate and also confirmed the SNB's authority to set a floor on EURCHF single-handedly if it sees fit to do so. However, government consultation will still be needed if the SNB wishes to impose capital controls at some point in the future. Further liquidity injections and action in the FX swaps market are likely to continue but the effects are expected to be muted, especially as sight deposit levels approach target. Overnight during Asian trading risk softened as growth concerns continue to weigh on sentiment. Japanese authorities noted they are continuing to monitor exchange rates but this hasn't prevented USDJPY remaining extremely heavy as markets are braced for further disappointments. Ahead today, activity and housing figures aside, inflation numbers are out in the US and any downside surprise in the core figure could further increase expectations of renewed QE. Jobless claims figures are also due. USDJPY traded 76.53-76.72 and EURUSD 1.4383-1.4440.
EUR
The ECB's 1-week dollar refinancing operation was tapped for the first time since February. The facility was first established during the peak of the crisis to help distribute dollars provided to the ECB via the Fed's swap lines. The ECB lent $0.5 bn at 1.1% to a single unnamed financial institution, providing another sign that demand for dollar funding is creeping higher. This comes after a week in which EURUSD basis swaps showed dollar demand has risen to levels unseen since Q1 2009.
Headline CPI in the Eurozone was in-line with consensus at +2.5% y/y. The core number was significantly softer however at +1.2% y/y. Our European economist notes that the drop in core CPI is totally driven by a fall in the footwear and clothing components in Italy (due to sales in July). The drop in core is thus temporary and they expect core to stay at +1.2% in August and then jump back to +1.6% in September, when the new clothing season starts.
The regional leaders of the Eurozone have started to offer their opinions on the Franco-German agreements this week and the Luxembourg Finance Minister noting that nothing new was mentioned, but there is a necessity to implement what has already been agreed upon. Meanwhile, other countries continue to stress that the upcoming Greek package must be collateralised for their own contributions - Finland has been very active on this issue and today the Austrian Finance Ministry notes that the Greece collateral model needed to be opened to all Eurozone countries, and is looking for a model where some countries would get more collateral than others.
GBP
Sterling dropped briefly, but sharply, after dovish minutes from the BoE's August 4 meeting were published. Significantly, MPC members Weale and Dale abandoned their call for an immediate rate hike, and instead voted with the other seven MPC members to keep the policy rate unchanged at 0.5%. The vote split for further asset purchases remained at 8-1. Although only MPC member Posen voted for more QE, it was noted that several other MPC members would be willing to consider additional easing if circumstances were to call for it.
UK labour data was soft yesterday with the claimant count rising by 37k and the ILO unemployment rate increasing to 7.9% (cons. 7.7%). Ahead today retail sales in the UK are due and the market is looking for 0.1%y/y growth in the core figure.
CHF
EURCHF fell sharply on Wednesday morning after the SNB failed to impose an exchange rate target. Instead, less radical policy tools were announced to help weaken the CHF. The bank committed to increasing sight deposits held at the SNB to CHF 200 bn (from the previous target of CHF 120 bn). The SNB also restated its intention to use FX swaps in inject further CHF liquidity. This will likely lead to balance sheet expansion as there are insufficient bills and repos remaining on the SNB's balance sheet to provide for the full CHF 80 bn in additional liquidity.
At a subsequent press conference government officials announced a CHF 2 bn aid package to help exporters and the tourism industry cope with the strong Swiss franc.
More significantly, Finance Minister Widmer-Schlumpf said the government would support any measure that the SNB thinks is appropriate to decisively weaken the CHF. It was stressed that the SNB is in charge of monetary policy, and that the government would not be involved if the SNB chooses to set an exchange rate floor or a peg. However, the government stated too that other measures such as capital controls would have to be agreed on in consultation with the government. The comments are best interpreted as a public display of government approval for any future intervention the SNB may decide to carry out.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
17th of August 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
17 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
GBPUSD 1.6478 resistance
EURUSD BULLISH A clearance of 1.4536 would open the way for gains towards 1.4697. Support lies at 1.4150.
USDJPY BEARISH A break below 76.25, the key low, would open the psychological level of 75.00. Resistance is at 77.86.
GBPUSD BULLISH The pair is testing 1.6478; a move above this level would expose 1.6547. Initial support lies at 1.6256.
USDCHF NEUTRAL The near-term directional triggers are at 0.8278 and 0.7549.
AUDUSD BEARISH A move below 1.0331 would pave the way for losses towards 1.0246. The key upside trigger is at 1.0641, a Fibonacci level.
USDCAD BULLISH A rise through 0.9919 would expose 0.9969. Near-term support lies at 0.9742.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Initial resistance is at 1.1663 while support lies at 1.1046.
EURGBP NEUTRAL A push above 0.8886 would trigger a bull trend while a move below 0.8643 would trigger a bear trend.
EURJPY BEARISH The cross has support at 108.93; a break below this level would open 108.03, a key low from Aug 11. Resistance is at 112.71.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
17 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
GBPUSD 1.6478 resistance
EURUSD BULLISH A clearance of 1.4536 would open the way for gains towards 1.4697. Support lies at 1.4150.
USDJPY BEARISH A break below 76.25, the key low, would open the psychological level of 75.00. Resistance is at 77.86.
GBPUSD BULLISH The pair is testing 1.6478; a move above this level would expose 1.6547. Initial support lies at 1.6256.
USDCHF NEUTRAL The near-term directional triggers are at 0.8278 and 0.7549.
AUDUSD BEARISH A move below 1.0331 would pave the way for losses towards 1.0246. The key upside trigger is at 1.0641, a Fibonacci level.
USDCAD BULLISH A rise through 0.9919 would expose 0.9969. Near-term support lies at 0.9742.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Initial resistance is at 1.1663 while support lies at 1.1046.
EURGBP NEUTRAL A push above 0.8886 would trigger a bull trend while a move below 0.8643 would trigger a bear trend.
EURJPY BEARISH The cross has support at 108.93; a break below this level would open 108.03, a key low from Aug 11. Resistance is at 112.71.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
17th of August 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
17 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
After yesterday's rather uninspiring performance by the heads of government of France and Germany, investor attention will turn to the Swiss government, along with the SNB, to see whether measures will be announced to counter franc appreciation. Although no specific times or measures have been flagged, press reports point to a possible exchange rate floor. Dow Jones wires reported yesterday that the Swiss government may hold a press event today. After yesterday's Franco-German summit which did not yield any increases to the size of the EFSF or mention Eurobonds as a specific short term solution, there is an added impetus for the Swiss to act and failure do so will weigh on EURCHF. Yesterday Sarkozy and Merkel announced the creation of an Economic Council but said the size of the EFSF is enough for now, and intimated Eurobonds could only happen after economic integration is complete. The timing of this was significant given the ECB's announcement yesterday that EUR22 bn worth of ECB sovereign bond purchases settled last week. The intention is for the EFSF to inherit responsibility for bond purchases by the end of this year. Clearly, if the EFSF is to maintain the pace of purchases carried out by the ECB last week, then the EFSF's EUR440 bn capacity may not be enough in the long run. EURUSD traded 1.4351-1.4417, and USDJPY 76.63-76.83. BoE minutes are due today.
EUR
An eagerly-awaited press conference by German Chancellor Merkel and French President Sarkozy caused some significant EURUSD volatility, but ultimately the euro soon settled back to previous levels. Eurobonds were mentioned, but Sarkozy made it clear that their introduction would only be entertained at the end of a long process of Eurozone integration.
The announcement that France and Germany had proposed an 'economic government' for the Eurozone caught the market's attention and gave the euro a boost, although when further detail emerged it was clear the term was more attention-grabbing than it deserved to be. A new position as head of the Eurozone is to be created, and current EU Council President von Rompuy has been appointed to the position. The Franco-German proposals also call for all Eurozone countries to write a deficit limit rule into their constitutions by the Summer 2012. However, investors were unimpressed when Sarkozy announced the size of the EFSF would not be increased, and the euro sold off again.
German GDP growth came in at a surprisingly soft +0.1% q/q (cons. +0.5%). Our economists note that the figures are disappointing, though to some extent explainable as net trade was softer due to rising imports. In addition, construction dampened growth during the quarter while consumption surprised to the downside, contributing negatively to GDP growth. The figures dragged Eurozone GDP lower to 0.2%q/q (0.3% cons.).The Eurozone trade balance was also softer at EUR0.9bln.
GBP
BoE Minutes are due today and we expect the two voters for hikes last time to withdrawal their decisions and the committee voted unanimously to stay on hold. On the asset purchase vote Adam Posen is expected to be the lone individual in favour.
CPI came in above expectations at 4.4%y/y. The figures triggered a letter from BoE Governor King to the Chancellor, which ultimately contained very little new information. In his reply the Chancellor emphasised the government's commitment to fiscal consolidation.
UK labour data is also due, claimant count is expected to rise by 20k and the ILO unemployment rate to stay at 7.7%.
CHF
Press speculation continues to encourage expectations of a major SNB announcement on Wednesday regarding currency policy. We are sceptical - although we believe the SNB will likely be forced eventually to carry out FX intervention to weaken the Swiss franc, there is little evidence to suggest they will act on Wednesday.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
17 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
After yesterday's rather uninspiring performance by the heads of government of France and Germany, investor attention will turn to the Swiss government, along with the SNB, to see whether measures will be announced to counter franc appreciation. Although no specific times or measures have been flagged, press reports point to a possible exchange rate floor. Dow Jones wires reported yesterday that the Swiss government may hold a press event today. After yesterday's Franco-German summit which did not yield any increases to the size of the EFSF or mention Eurobonds as a specific short term solution, there is an added impetus for the Swiss to act and failure do so will weigh on EURCHF. Yesterday Sarkozy and Merkel announced the creation of an Economic Council but said the size of the EFSF is enough for now, and intimated Eurobonds could only happen after economic integration is complete. The timing of this was significant given the ECB's announcement yesterday that EUR22 bn worth of ECB sovereign bond purchases settled last week. The intention is for the EFSF to inherit responsibility for bond purchases by the end of this year. Clearly, if the EFSF is to maintain the pace of purchases carried out by the ECB last week, then the EFSF's EUR440 bn capacity may not be enough in the long run. EURUSD traded 1.4351-1.4417, and USDJPY 76.63-76.83. BoE minutes are due today.
EUR
An eagerly-awaited press conference by German Chancellor Merkel and French President Sarkozy caused some significant EURUSD volatility, but ultimately the euro soon settled back to previous levels. Eurobonds were mentioned, but Sarkozy made it clear that their introduction would only be entertained at the end of a long process of Eurozone integration.
The announcement that France and Germany had proposed an 'economic government' for the Eurozone caught the market's attention and gave the euro a boost, although when further detail emerged it was clear the term was more attention-grabbing than it deserved to be. A new position as head of the Eurozone is to be created, and current EU Council President von Rompuy has been appointed to the position. The Franco-German proposals also call for all Eurozone countries to write a deficit limit rule into their constitutions by the Summer 2012. However, investors were unimpressed when Sarkozy announced the size of the EFSF would not be increased, and the euro sold off again.
German GDP growth came in at a surprisingly soft +0.1% q/q (cons. +0.5%). Our economists note that the figures are disappointing, though to some extent explainable as net trade was softer due to rising imports. In addition, construction dampened growth during the quarter while consumption surprised to the downside, contributing negatively to GDP growth. The figures dragged Eurozone GDP lower to 0.2%q/q (0.3% cons.).The Eurozone trade balance was also softer at EUR0.9bln.
GBP
BoE Minutes are due today and we expect the two voters for hikes last time to withdrawal their decisions and the committee voted unanimously to stay on hold. On the asset purchase vote Adam Posen is expected to be the lone individual in favour.
CPI came in above expectations at 4.4%y/y. The figures triggered a letter from BoE Governor King to the Chancellor, which ultimately contained very little new information. In his reply the Chancellor emphasised the government's commitment to fiscal consolidation.
UK labour data is also due, claimant count is expected to rise by 20k and the ILO unemployment rate to stay at 7.7%.
CHF
Press speculation continues to encourage expectations of a major SNB announcement on Wednesday regarding currency policy. We are sceptical - although we believe the SNB will likely be forced eventually to carry out FX intervention to weaken the Swiss franc, there is little evidence to suggest they will act on Wednesday.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
16th of August 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
16 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD 1.4536 resistance.
EURUSD BULLISH A rise through 1.4536 would confirm the bull trend and expose 1.4697. Support lies at 1.4150.
USDJPY BEARISH The focus is on 76.25, the key low, a break of this level would expose 75.00, psychological level. Resistance is at 77.86.
GBPUSD BULLISH A clearance of 1.6478 would expose 1.6547. Initial support lies at 1.6167.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Recovery stalled at 0.8000; Initial resistance is at 0.7998 while support lies at 0.7549.
AUDUSD BEARISH A move below 1.0331 would open 1.0246 next. Resistance is at 1.0641, a Fibonacci level.
USDCAD BULLISH A push above 0.9919 would open the way for 0.9969. Support lies at 0.9742.
EURCHF NEUTRAL The pair has resistance at 1.1536 while support lies at 1.0686.
EURGBP NEUTRAL The near-term directional triggers are at 0.8886 and 0.8677.
EURJPY BEARISH Initial support is at 108.93, a break below which would open 108.03, a key low from Aug 11. Resistance is at 112.71.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
16 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD 1.4536 resistance.
EURUSD BULLISH A rise through 1.4536 would confirm the bull trend and expose 1.4697. Support lies at 1.4150.
USDJPY BEARISH The focus is on 76.25, the key low, a break of this level would expose 75.00, psychological level. Resistance is at 77.86.
GBPUSD BULLISH A clearance of 1.6478 would expose 1.6547. Initial support lies at 1.6167.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Recovery stalled at 0.8000; Initial resistance is at 0.7998 while support lies at 0.7549.
AUDUSD BEARISH A move below 1.0331 would open 1.0246 next. Resistance is at 1.0641, a Fibonacci level.
USDCAD BULLISH A push above 0.9919 would open the way for 0.9969. Support lies at 0.9742.
EURCHF NEUTRAL The pair has resistance at 1.1536 while support lies at 1.0686.
EURGBP NEUTRAL The near-term directional triggers are at 0.8886 and 0.8677.
EURJPY BEARISH Initial support is at 108.93, a break below which would open 108.03, a key low from Aug 11. Resistance is at 112.71.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
16th of August 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
16 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk appetite remained relatively firm during the Asia session as investors look ahead to the Sarkozy-Merkel summit later today for further policy guidance. A Wall Street Journal article published overnight noted that the two countries are being forced to reconsider the possibility of Eurobonds as the prospect of fiscal union moves up the agenda, though political obstacles remain strong and we remain cautious on over-expecting a positive result from today. Elsewhere, an editorial in a major Chinese paper suggested the time is ripe for CNY flexibility to be increased. Although this doesn't immediately point to outright appreciation, expectations of a band widening have risen. During the US session Atlanta Fed President Lockhart (a 2012 voter) sounded sceptical about the possibility of further QE, but kept the door open to further asset purchases nonetheless. He said in theory the Fed could extend asset purchases "quite extensively" but that the bar is still very high for another round of monetary stimulus. On the data front German GDP is due, which is likely to be a significant driver of risk appetite today. US industrial production is also in the calendar. We remain on the lookout for SNB policy announcements.
EUR
Investors seem to be expecting some euro-positive developments to emerge from Tuesday's meeting between French President Sarkozy and German Chancellor Merkel. We have our doubts however, especially given that both governments have explicitly stated that eurobonds will not be on the agenda. Instead, all investors are likely to get is yet another pledge to implement the July 21 summit proposals as quickly as possible. A Wall Street Journal article released overnight suggested the leaders were being forced to reconsider the prospect of Eurobonds in light of market conditions. This remains politically controversial but cannot be dismissed outright any longer.
The ECB announced it bought ?22 bn worth of bonds under its Securities Markets Program in the latest week, reactivating the facility after 19-weeks of dormancy. This was the biggest amount ever purchased in a single week - consistent with unconfirmed newswire reports that the ECB bought Spanish and Italian debt for the first time. The sheer scale of the operation is a clear demonstration of the ECB's determination to prevent the crisis from escalating, but it could also introduce sterilisation challenges over the medium term. The ECB is scheduled to sterilise these purchases on Tuesday by absorbing ?96 bn in one-week deposits. FX investors will be watching to see if the full amount is taken in.
GBP
Minutes from the RBA's August 2 policy overnight underscored the central case for hikes, though rising external risks have kept the RBA on hold. Our economists note conditions had deteriorated since the initial meeting, and we now no longer expect any move this year.
AUD
Minutes from the RBA's August 2 policy overnight underscored the central case for hikes, though rising external risks have kept the RBA on hold. Our economists note conditions had deteriorated since the initial meeting, and we now no longer expect any move this year.
CHF
Swiss combined producer and import prices came in at -0.7% m/m and -0.6% y/y, largely in line with market expectations.
The Tages-Anzeiger paper in Switzerland reported that the government would meet today on measures to counter franc appreciation but this would focus more on the economic side, such as helping affected industries, rather than outright FX/monetary policy measures.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
16 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk appetite remained relatively firm during the Asia session as investors look ahead to the Sarkozy-Merkel summit later today for further policy guidance. A Wall Street Journal article published overnight noted that the two countries are being forced to reconsider the possibility of Eurobonds as the prospect of fiscal union moves up the agenda, though political obstacles remain strong and we remain cautious on over-expecting a positive result from today. Elsewhere, an editorial in a major Chinese paper suggested the time is ripe for CNY flexibility to be increased. Although this doesn't immediately point to outright appreciation, expectations of a band widening have risen. During the US session Atlanta Fed President Lockhart (a 2012 voter) sounded sceptical about the possibility of further QE, but kept the door open to further asset purchases nonetheless. He said in theory the Fed could extend asset purchases "quite extensively" but that the bar is still very high for another round of monetary stimulus. On the data front German GDP is due, which is likely to be a significant driver of risk appetite today. US industrial production is also in the calendar. We remain on the lookout for SNB policy announcements.
EUR
Investors seem to be expecting some euro-positive developments to emerge from Tuesday's meeting between French President Sarkozy and German Chancellor Merkel. We have our doubts however, especially given that both governments have explicitly stated that eurobonds will not be on the agenda. Instead, all investors are likely to get is yet another pledge to implement the July 21 summit proposals as quickly as possible. A Wall Street Journal article released overnight suggested the leaders were being forced to reconsider the prospect of Eurobonds in light of market conditions. This remains politically controversial but cannot be dismissed outright any longer.
The ECB announced it bought ?22 bn worth of bonds under its Securities Markets Program in the latest week, reactivating the facility after 19-weeks of dormancy. This was the biggest amount ever purchased in a single week - consistent with unconfirmed newswire reports that the ECB bought Spanish and Italian debt for the first time. The sheer scale of the operation is a clear demonstration of the ECB's determination to prevent the crisis from escalating, but it could also introduce sterilisation challenges over the medium term. The ECB is scheduled to sterilise these purchases on Tuesday by absorbing ?96 bn in one-week deposits. FX investors will be watching to see if the full amount is taken in.
GBP
Minutes from the RBA's August 2 policy overnight underscored the central case for hikes, though rising external risks have kept the RBA on hold. Our economists note conditions had deteriorated since the initial meeting, and we now no longer expect any move this year.
AUD
Minutes from the RBA's August 2 policy overnight underscored the central case for hikes, though rising external risks have kept the RBA on hold. Our economists note conditions had deteriorated since the initial meeting, and we now no longer expect any move this year.
CHF
Swiss combined producer and import prices came in at -0.7% m/m and -0.6% y/y, largely in line with market expectations.
The Tages-Anzeiger paper in Switzerland reported that the government would meet today on measures to counter franc appreciation but this would focus more on the economic side, such as helping affected industries, rather than outright FX/monetary policy measures.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Friday, August 12, 2011
12th of August 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
12 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
GBPUSD 1.6047 support
EURUSD BEARISH While resistance at 1.4401 remains intact, expect a decline towards 1.4055 ahead of 1.3951.
USDJPY BEARISH The focus is on 76.25, a break of which would expose the psychological level of 75.00. Resistance is at 77.86.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Key downside trigger is at 1.6047, a Fibonacci level. Initial resistance is at 1.6336.
USDCHF BEARISH A break below 0.7181 would reinforce the bear trend and open the way towards the key low at 0.7071. Resistance is at 0.7802.
AUDUSD BEARISH The pair has support at 0.9928, a move below which would expose 0.9781. Initial resistance is at 1.0391.
USDCAD BULLISH The momentum is positive; a move above 1.0010 would signal extension of gains towards 1.0058. Near-term support lies at 0.9767.
EURCHF BEARISH Key support lies at 1.0075, a drop through which would expose 1.0000, a psychological level. Resistance is at 1.1022.
EURGBP NEUTRAL The near-term directional triggers are at 0.8886 and 0.8677.
EURJPY BEARISH The focus is on key low from March 17 at 106.61, a break here would expose 105.80. Resistance is at 111.25.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
12 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
GBPUSD 1.6047 support
EURUSD BEARISH While resistance at 1.4401 remains intact, expect a decline towards 1.4055 ahead of 1.3951.
USDJPY BEARISH The focus is on 76.25, a break of which would expose the psychological level of 75.00. Resistance is at 77.86.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Key downside trigger is at 1.6047, a Fibonacci level. Initial resistance is at 1.6336.
USDCHF BEARISH A break below 0.7181 would reinforce the bear trend and open the way towards the key low at 0.7071. Resistance is at 0.7802.
AUDUSD BEARISH The pair has support at 0.9928, a move below which would expose 0.9781. Initial resistance is at 1.0391.
USDCAD BULLISH The momentum is positive; a move above 1.0010 would signal extension of gains towards 1.0058. Near-term support lies at 0.9767.
EURCHF BEARISH Key support lies at 1.0075, a drop through which would expose 1.0000, a psychological level. Resistance is at 1.1022.
EURGBP NEUTRAL The near-term directional triggers are at 0.8886 and 0.8677.
EURJPY BEARISH The focus is on key low from March 17 at 106.61, a break here would expose 105.80. Resistance is at 111.25.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
12th of August 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
12 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
After a strong risk rally yesterday, markets drifted off the highs overnight, with the dollar stronger across the board. Price action was relatively subdued however, and we await European trading to better gauge investor sentiment. Yesterday, better-than-expected macro data and improved sentiment towards European financials both contributed. US weekly jobless claims slipped 5k to 395k in the week of Aug. 6. France, Spain, Belgium and Italy have all introduced a ban on short-selling of financial stocks, effective today, to try and achieve more market stability. Yesterday, the S&P500 ended up 4.63%, but Asian equities were mixed. EURUSD traded 1.4173-1.4258, USDJPY 76.70-77.02. Ahead today, advance retail sales and the Michigan confidence indicator are due.
EUR
France, Spain, Belgium and Italy have all introduced a short sale ban, effective from today in order to try and achieve more market stability. The move is stronger than the initial suggestions of a ban on 'naked short sales' and will last for at least the next 15 days.
ECB Governing Council member Mersch said it will be a close call whether the ECB will shift its inflation stance from seeing upside risks to neutral. He added that even if energy prices are coming down for now, it is far from certain what the direction will be in the near future. He also sees an extremely low probability for of another recession in Europe.
According to the EU Commission Cyprus economy is fundamentally healthy. As such no aid plan is currently discussed. On a different note, Cyprus government bonds used as ECB collateral will be charged an extra 5% haircut after Fitch downgraded the sovereign to "BBB" and kept a stable outlook.
JPY
Finance Minister Noda added further comments about the yens strength. He said they are still gauging the effects of the last intervention and will act as needed according to the G7 statement which called for close communication and joint action.
Economy Minister Yosano said he thinks BoJ governor has acknowledged PM Kan's call for action. He said that Kan has sent a message that he wants BoJ to do its utmost for the economy.
CHF
Citing Swiss politicians, newspaper Tages-Anzeige said that a franc target could get majority party backing. The SNB will likely come under increasing political pressure to adopt some kind of target, which seems to be the 'consensus' solution among Swiss politicians. An outright peg is still seen as unlikely however. Yesterday, both the ECB and SNB declined to comment on speculation they discuss ways to peg the franc to the euro.
The CHF retreated yesterday as investors analyse potential measures that the SNB could impose to tackle franc strength. The market expects further announcements about the SNB's FX swap transactions (highlighted yesterday). This will be very important in terms of judging the SNB's appetite for outright QE. As long as it wanted to increase sight deposits by repurchasing SNB bills, it was just a shift from one liability item of the balance (SNB bills) to the other (sight deposits) and not a balance sheet expansion. Large swap transactions would be seen as a form of QE and balance sheet expansion.
Our Swiss economist notes that the latest SNB comments and measures highlight that it is clearly committed to tackle what they consider as an excessively strong CHF both vs EUR and USD. It seems to be following a game plan, and is willing to use every tool, including administrative measures. While the protection of its balance sheet (size and quality) is a limitation, its latest measures confirmed that the SNB is flexible on that front, too.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
12 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
After a strong risk rally yesterday, markets drifted off the highs overnight, with the dollar stronger across the board. Price action was relatively subdued however, and we await European trading to better gauge investor sentiment. Yesterday, better-than-expected macro data and improved sentiment towards European financials both contributed. US weekly jobless claims slipped 5k to 395k in the week of Aug. 6. France, Spain, Belgium and Italy have all introduced a ban on short-selling of financial stocks, effective today, to try and achieve more market stability. Yesterday, the S&P500 ended up 4.63%, but Asian equities were mixed. EURUSD traded 1.4173-1.4258, USDJPY 76.70-77.02. Ahead today, advance retail sales and the Michigan confidence indicator are due.
EUR
France, Spain, Belgium and Italy have all introduced a short sale ban, effective from today in order to try and achieve more market stability. The move is stronger than the initial suggestions of a ban on 'naked short sales' and will last for at least the next 15 days.
ECB Governing Council member Mersch said it will be a close call whether the ECB will shift its inflation stance from seeing upside risks to neutral. He added that even if energy prices are coming down for now, it is far from certain what the direction will be in the near future. He also sees an extremely low probability for of another recession in Europe.
According to the EU Commission Cyprus economy is fundamentally healthy. As such no aid plan is currently discussed. On a different note, Cyprus government bonds used as ECB collateral will be charged an extra 5% haircut after Fitch downgraded the sovereign to "BBB" and kept a stable outlook.
JPY
Finance Minister Noda added further comments about the yens strength. He said they are still gauging the effects of the last intervention and will act as needed according to the G7 statement which called for close communication and joint action.
Economy Minister Yosano said he thinks BoJ governor has acknowledged PM Kan's call for action. He said that Kan has sent a message that he wants BoJ to do its utmost for the economy.
CHF
Citing Swiss politicians, newspaper Tages-Anzeige said that a franc target could get majority party backing. The SNB will likely come under increasing political pressure to adopt some kind of target, which seems to be the 'consensus' solution among Swiss politicians. An outright peg is still seen as unlikely however. Yesterday, both the ECB and SNB declined to comment on speculation they discuss ways to peg the franc to the euro.
The CHF retreated yesterday as investors analyse potential measures that the SNB could impose to tackle franc strength. The market expects further announcements about the SNB's FX swap transactions (highlighted yesterday). This will be very important in terms of judging the SNB's appetite for outright QE. As long as it wanted to increase sight deposits by repurchasing SNB bills, it was just a shift from one liability item of the balance (SNB bills) to the other (sight deposits) and not a balance sheet expansion. Large swap transactions would be seen as a form of QE and balance sheet expansion.
Our Swiss economist notes that the latest SNB comments and measures highlight that it is clearly committed to tackle what they consider as an excessively strong CHF both vs EUR and USD. It seems to be following a game plan, and is willing to use every tool, including administrative measures. While the protection of its balance sheet (size and quality) is a limitation, its latest measures confirmed that the SNB is flexible on that front, too.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Thursday, August 11, 2011
11th of August 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
11 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDJPY 76.25 support.
EURUSD BEARISH Failure to break 1.4536 has brought back focus on the downside; support lies at 1.4055/14 area ahead of 1.3837, a key low. Resistance is at 1.4454.
USDJPY BEARISH The focus is on 76.25, a break of which would expose the psychological level of 75.00. Resistance is at 77.86.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL The pair has resistance at 1.6336 while support lies at 1.6047, a key retracement level.
USDCHF BEARISH A break of 0.7071 would expose 0.7000, psychological level. Resistance is at 0.7593.
AUDUSD BEARISH The pair has support at 0.9928, a move below which would open the way for 0.9781. Initial resistance is at 1.0447.
USDCAD BULLISH A clearance of 1.0010 would expose 1.0058. Near-term support lies at 0.9742.
EURCHF BEARISH A move below 1.0075 would expose 1.0000, an important psychological level. Resistance is at 1.0843.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Near-term directional triggers are at 0.8886 and 0.8643.
EURJPY BEARISH Key support lies at 106.61, a break here would expose 105.80. Resistance is at 111.25.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
11 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDJPY 76.25 support.
EURUSD BEARISH Failure to break 1.4536 has brought back focus on the downside; support lies at 1.4055/14 area ahead of 1.3837, a key low. Resistance is at 1.4454.
USDJPY BEARISH The focus is on 76.25, a break of which would expose the psychological level of 75.00. Resistance is at 77.86.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL The pair has resistance at 1.6336 while support lies at 1.6047, a key retracement level.
USDCHF BEARISH A break of 0.7071 would expose 0.7000, psychological level. Resistance is at 0.7593.
AUDUSD BEARISH The pair has support at 0.9928, a move below which would open the way for 0.9781. Initial resistance is at 1.0447.
USDCAD BULLISH A clearance of 1.0010 would expose 1.0058. Near-term support lies at 0.9742.
EURCHF BEARISH A move below 1.0075 would expose 1.0000, an important psychological level. Resistance is at 1.0843.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Near-term directional triggers are at 0.8886 and 0.8643.
EURJPY BEARISH Key support lies at 106.61, a break here would expose 105.80. Resistance is at 111.25.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
11th of August 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
11 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Markets stabilised overnight after further heavy selling yesterday. The AUD came under pressure after disappointing labour data but soon reversed its losses. Yesterday, increasing stress in the European banking sector together with increased global growth worries, put risk sentiment back under pressure. French industrial output data disappointed. The BoE's quarterly Inflation Report was dovish. Against expectations for a hike, Norges Bank left its policy rate unchanged, mainly due to increased uncertainty about global growth conditions and generally heightened market stress. The S&P 500 lost 4.42%, while equities in Asia are currently trading slightly in the red. EURUSD traded 1.4123-1.4249, USDJPY 76.48-77.23. Jobless claims are due in the US session today.
EUR
France reported June industrial output of -1.6% (cons. -0.6%, prev. 2.0%), indicating muted business activity. An S&P official affirmed that the rating outlook for France is stable and that no downgrade is expected over the coming two years. Fitch, meanwhile, downgraded Cyprus to "BBB" and kept a stable outlook.
Italy's Prime Minister Berlusconi reaffirmed that the government will act quickly in order to implement austerity measures as decided last week. He called for a cabinet meeting on anti-crisis measures by Aug. 18. Italy's biggest union reportedly threatened industrial action over austerity measures were 'ordinary Italians' to bear the brunt.
GBP
The BoE Quarterly Inflation Report was dovish, the BoE fan chart shows CPI at around just below 2pc in 2 years if interest rates are held constant. In the post-report conference, King was relatively dovish, saying that growth risks are skewed to the downside. King also left the possibility of further asset purchases open if circumstances dictate. Sterling fell on the release but soon reversed its losses.
AUD
Australian labour data was slightly disappointing, with an increase in the unemployment rate to 5.1%. Our analysts note however that this is in itself unlikely to alter the RBA's stance, although markets continue to price in rate cuts at the next meeting.
CHF
SNB Vice Chairman Jordan said the SNB is ready to take further measures if needed. He added that a wide range of tools is under consideration to weaken the franc. According to SNB Board Member Danthine, any overvalued currency has the tendency to return to fair value. Switzerland's economy minister reiterated that the franc rate is a matter for the SNB and that the country has to accept the challenge of a strong franc. Jordan later said that raising liquidity was appropriate SNB measures make holding francs less attractive; says a temporary CHF-EUR link would be legal.
The SNB announced further liquidity measures. The press released noted that to accelerate the increase in CHF liquidity, the SNB will additionally conduct foreign exchange swap transactions. They will also increase bank sight deposits to CHF 120 bn. Our Swiss economist notes that this is a comparably small measure to counter the latest CHF strength. The SNB's measure might not be excessively big, but it clearly highlights that it is willing to take additional measures if necessary. We believe the market will view the latest measures with a high degree of scepticism.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
11 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Markets stabilised overnight after further heavy selling yesterday. The AUD came under pressure after disappointing labour data but soon reversed its losses. Yesterday, increasing stress in the European banking sector together with increased global growth worries, put risk sentiment back under pressure. French industrial output data disappointed. The BoE's quarterly Inflation Report was dovish. Against expectations for a hike, Norges Bank left its policy rate unchanged, mainly due to increased uncertainty about global growth conditions and generally heightened market stress. The S&P 500 lost 4.42%, while equities in Asia are currently trading slightly in the red. EURUSD traded 1.4123-1.4249, USDJPY 76.48-77.23. Jobless claims are due in the US session today.
EUR
France reported June industrial output of -1.6% (cons. -0.6%, prev. 2.0%), indicating muted business activity. An S&P official affirmed that the rating outlook for France is stable and that no downgrade is expected over the coming two years. Fitch, meanwhile, downgraded Cyprus to "BBB" and kept a stable outlook.
Italy's Prime Minister Berlusconi reaffirmed that the government will act quickly in order to implement austerity measures as decided last week. He called for a cabinet meeting on anti-crisis measures by Aug. 18. Italy's biggest union reportedly threatened industrial action over austerity measures were 'ordinary Italians' to bear the brunt.
GBP
The BoE Quarterly Inflation Report was dovish, the BoE fan chart shows CPI at around just below 2pc in 2 years if interest rates are held constant. In the post-report conference, King was relatively dovish, saying that growth risks are skewed to the downside. King also left the possibility of further asset purchases open if circumstances dictate. Sterling fell on the release but soon reversed its losses.
AUD
Australian labour data was slightly disappointing, with an increase in the unemployment rate to 5.1%. Our analysts note however that this is in itself unlikely to alter the RBA's stance, although markets continue to price in rate cuts at the next meeting.
CHF
SNB Vice Chairman Jordan said the SNB is ready to take further measures if needed. He added that a wide range of tools is under consideration to weaken the franc. According to SNB Board Member Danthine, any overvalued currency has the tendency to return to fair value. Switzerland's economy minister reiterated that the franc rate is a matter for the SNB and that the country has to accept the challenge of a strong franc. Jordan later said that raising liquidity was appropriate SNB measures make holding francs less attractive; says a temporary CHF-EUR link would be legal.
The SNB announced further liquidity measures. The press released noted that to accelerate the increase in CHF liquidity, the SNB will additionally conduct foreign exchange swap transactions. They will also increase bank sight deposits to CHF 120 bn. Our Swiss economist notes that this is a comparably small measure to counter the latest CHF strength. The SNB's measure might not be excessively big, but it clearly highlights that it is willing to take additional measures if necessary. We believe the market will view the latest measures with a high degree of scepticism.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
10th of August 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
10 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURCHF approaches parity.
EURUSD BEARISH A break below 1.4055/14 area would open the way for 1.3951. Near-term resistance is at 1.4536.
USDJPY BEARISH Key support lies at 76.25, a break here would expose the psychological level of 75.00. Resistance is at 77.86.
GBPUSD BULLISH A clearance of 1.6478 would pave the way for gains towards 1.6547. Near-term support lies at 1.6176.
USDCHF BEARISH A move below 0.7071 would expose 0.7000, psychological level. Resistance is at 0.7593.
AUDUSD BEARISH A violation of 0.9928 would open the way for further losses towards 0.9781. Initial resistance is at 1.0505, Fibonacci level.
USDCAD BULLISH Initial resistance is at 1.0010, a break here would expose 1.0058. Support lies at 0.9742.
EURCHF BEARISH A clear break of 1.0500 has extended losses towards 1.0075 and 1.0000, psychological level. Resistance is at 1.0843.
EURGBP BEARISH Support lies at 0.8677, a move below which would expose 0.8643. A move above 0.8884 would trigger a bull trend.
EURJPY BEARISH The cross now heads towards 108.71, a key low from Aug 1, and 106.61. Resistance is at 112.71.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
10 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURCHF approaches parity.
EURUSD BEARISH A break below 1.4055/14 area would open the way for 1.3951. Near-term resistance is at 1.4536.
USDJPY BEARISH Key support lies at 76.25, a break here would expose the psychological level of 75.00. Resistance is at 77.86.
GBPUSD BULLISH A clearance of 1.6478 would pave the way for gains towards 1.6547. Near-term support lies at 1.6176.
USDCHF BEARISH A move below 0.7071 would expose 0.7000, psychological level. Resistance is at 0.7593.
AUDUSD BEARISH A violation of 0.9928 would open the way for further losses towards 0.9781. Initial resistance is at 1.0505, Fibonacci level.
USDCAD BULLISH Initial resistance is at 1.0010, a break here would expose 1.0058. Support lies at 0.9742.
EURCHF BEARISH A clear break of 1.0500 has extended losses towards 1.0075 and 1.0000, psychological level. Resistance is at 1.0843.
EURGBP BEARISH Support lies at 0.8677, a move below which would expose 0.8643. A move above 0.8884 would trigger a bull trend.
EURJPY BEARISH The cross now heads towards 108.71, a key low from Aug 1, and 106.61. Resistance is at 112.71.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
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