DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
31 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURCHF pressure on 1.3040.
EURUSD BULLISH Look for a move above 1.4194 to open the way for 1.4249/82 zone, while support at 1.3981 holds.
USDJPY BULLISH The pair targets 83.30 with potential for 83.98 next. Support is at 82.37.
GBPUSD BEARISH Move below 1.5937 would expose 1.5873 Fibonacci level. Resistance is at 1.6142.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Model is neutral; break above 0.9317/69 would favor upside, while a move below 0.9076 would signal further losses.
AUDUSD BULLISH Uptrend is intact; focus is on 1.0400/25 resistance area. Support lies at 1.0205
USDCAD BEARISH Bear trend continues; breach of 0.9668 would expose 0.9584. Initial resistance is at 0.9786.
EURCHF BULLISH Recovery pressures 1.3040; next resistance at 1.3138 ahead of 1.3203. Initial support is at 1.2889.
EURGBP BULLISH Break of 0.8836 would open way to 0.8885 and 0.8942 next. Support is at 0.8740 ahead of 0.8700.
EURJPY BULLISH As long as support at 115.00 holds, look for gains towards 118.34/72 resistance zone.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
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Thursday, March 31, 2011
31st of March 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
31 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Price action lacked conviction during the Asia session, although the dollar lost some ground against the euro. EURUSD traded 1.4116-1.4167 and USDJPY 82.57-83.21. St Louis Fed President Bullard made it clear that his recent remarks in which he called for QE2 to be cut short ahead of the June deadline were not mainstream views on the FOMC. Kansas City Fed President Hoenig, also a non-voter this year, maintained his hawkish stance. Initial jobless claims are due but as this print will not reflect the survey week, any impact could be limited on the dollar. Cleveland Fed President Pianalto is due to speak, and investors will be watching for any shifts in her dovish outlook (she is also a non-voter in 2011).
EUR
Today, the Irish central bank is due to release the results of stress tests on the Irish banking system. Local media reports suggest that up to EUR25 bn in fresh capital may be needed. Such a figure is unlikely to trouble the euro given the EU/IMF plan has set aside as much as EUR35 bn specifically to fund the recapitalisation effort.
Rhetoric from ECB policymakers continues to point to a rate hike on April 7. ECB Executive Board member Stark said Eurozone policy rates are exceptionally low. ECB Governing Board member Bini-Smaghi also said the ECB would raise rates in a "gradual way".
CHF
The KoF leading indicator was stronger than expected at 2.24. We expect economic conditions to remain robust in Switzerland but the SNB is not keen on moving on rates in the near future.
Thomas Jordan of the SNB said rates will need to be raised at some point to maintain price stability, but also warned that franc appreciation had tightened conditions enough such that the room for policy normalization is limited.
AUD
The AUD got a boost from stronger-than-expected retail sales for February. Credit growth also picked up faster than expected. Building approvals fell very sharply, however. In general our Australian economics team sees signs of improvements in the data, which is consistent with their call for an RBA hike from August.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
31 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Price action lacked conviction during the Asia session, although the dollar lost some ground against the euro. EURUSD traded 1.4116-1.4167 and USDJPY 82.57-83.21. St Louis Fed President Bullard made it clear that his recent remarks in which he called for QE2 to be cut short ahead of the June deadline were not mainstream views on the FOMC. Kansas City Fed President Hoenig, also a non-voter this year, maintained his hawkish stance. Initial jobless claims are due but as this print will not reflect the survey week, any impact could be limited on the dollar. Cleveland Fed President Pianalto is due to speak, and investors will be watching for any shifts in her dovish outlook (she is also a non-voter in 2011).
EUR
Today, the Irish central bank is due to release the results of stress tests on the Irish banking system. Local media reports suggest that up to EUR25 bn in fresh capital may be needed. Such a figure is unlikely to trouble the euro given the EU/IMF plan has set aside as much as EUR35 bn specifically to fund the recapitalisation effort.
Rhetoric from ECB policymakers continues to point to a rate hike on April 7. ECB Executive Board member Stark said Eurozone policy rates are exceptionally low. ECB Governing Board member Bini-Smaghi also said the ECB would raise rates in a "gradual way".
CHF
The KoF leading indicator was stronger than expected at 2.24. We expect economic conditions to remain robust in Switzerland but the SNB is not keen on moving on rates in the near future.
Thomas Jordan of the SNB said rates will need to be raised at some point to maintain price stability, but also warned that franc appreciation had tightened conditions enough such that the room for policy normalization is limited.
AUD
The AUD got a boost from stronger-than-expected retail sales for February. Credit growth also picked up faster than expected. Building approvals fell very sharply, however. In general our Australian economics team sees signs of improvements in the data, which is consistent with their call for an RBA hike from August.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
29th of March 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
29 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk sentiment was relatively stable in overnight hours, with most Asian stock market indices trading in the black. However, continuing uncertainty over Japan's nuclear plants and the risk of rising radiation levels kept buying interest in Japanese stocks muted. US stock futures are trading 0.3% higher at the time of writing. EURUSD traded 1.4061-1.4095 and USDJPY traded 81.54-81.76. On the data front, Japanese jobs data for February was above expectations, but given this month's events, business activity is set to slump before reconstruction needs can support economic activity again. In the US, pending home sales were weak while the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity unexpectedly dipped. Personal income and spending were roughly in line and core PCE increased as expected to 0.9% y/y. Chicago Fed President Evans said the Fed will likely complete the current USD600 bn bond-buying program and that substantial policy accommodation remains appropriate. However, he also said it would be appropriate to adjust policy should inflation expectations continue to rise. On growth, he said that despite signs of progress he is not satisfied with the pace of improvement in the US economy.
EUR
ECB President Trichet kept rate expectations supported by saying the inflation rate is durably above the central bank's price stability target. Recent data confirms that growth prospects remain constructive for most Eurozone member states. At the same time service sector has activity improved on the back of firm domestic demand. Thus with inflation risks persisting, we do not expect ECB members to soften their monetary policy stance anytime soon.
Elsewhere, conditions in peripheral bond markets remain in focus. Portuguese yields hit another record high. Political uncertainty will likely keep long-term yields supported. However, given Portugal's low systemic relevance for the Eurozone as a whole and the backstop of the rescue fund, we do not expect issues in Portugal to have any lasting and material impact on the euro.
JPY
The unemployment rate dropped to 4.6% in February (cons. 4.9%, prev. 4.9%). The jobs-to-applicants ratio rose to 0.62 (cons. 0.62, prev. 0.61), the highest reading since January 2009. Retail sales in February rose by 0.1% y/y (cons. -0.5%, prev. 0.1%).
Although February data suggests that the economy was on track for a steady recovery, the earthquake and tsunami in March will once again dampen the near-term outlook for business activity. As such February data is unlikely to have any material impact on the BoJ's monetary policy stance and hence the yen.
GBP
We look for a confirmed Q4 GDP contraction at -0.60% q/q and +1.50% y/y. The revision should have less of an impact given that sterling was already knocked lower by the initial release. Details on the drivers behind the Q4 correction will be of interest and we remain cautious on sterling as Q1 data has disappointed somewhat and the latest BoE minutes showed the MPC is not closer to a policy shift despite still above-target inflation. A weak print could also cause MPC members to think twice about voting for tightening.
CAD
BoC Deputy Governor Boivin gave no comment on the outlook for Canadian monetary policy but did say that the appreciation of the Canadian dollar highlights the need to become more productive. Boivin's comments echoed recent comments from other officials, suggesting that while CAD strength remains a concern, it is accepted as likely to persist for now.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
29 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk sentiment was relatively stable in overnight hours, with most Asian stock market indices trading in the black. However, continuing uncertainty over Japan's nuclear plants and the risk of rising radiation levels kept buying interest in Japanese stocks muted. US stock futures are trading 0.3% higher at the time of writing. EURUSD traded 1.4061-1.4095 and USDJPY traded 81.54-81.76. On the data front, Japanese jobs data for February was above expectations, but given this month's events, business activity is set to slump before reconstruction needs can support economic activity again. In the US, pending home sales were weak while the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity unexpectedly dipped. Personal income and spending were roughly in line and core PCE increased as expected to 0.9% y/y. Chicago Fed President Evans said the Fed will likely complete the current USD600 bn bond-buying program and that substantial policy accommodation remains appropriate. However, he also said it would be appropriate to adjust policy should inflation expectations continue to rise. On growth, he said that despite signs of progress he is not satisfied with the pace of improvement in the US economy.
EUR
ECB President Trichet kept rate expectations supported by saying the inflation rate is durably above the central bank's price stability target. Recent data confirms that growth prospects remain constructive for most Eurozone member states. At the same time service sector has activity improved on the back of firm domestic demand. Thus with inflation risks persisting, we do not expect ECB members to soften their monetary policy stance anytime soon.
Elsewhere, conditions in peripheral bond markets remain in focus. Portuguese yields hit another record high. Political uncertainty will likely keep long-term yields supported. However, given Portugal's low systemic relevance for the Eurozone as a whole and the backstop of the rescue fund, we do not expect issues in Portugal to have any lasting and material impact on the euro.
JPY
The unemployment rate dropped to 4.6% in February (cons. 4.9%, prev. 4.9%). The jobs-to-applicants ratio rose to 0.62 (cons. 0.62, prev. 0.61), the highest reading since January 2009. Retail sales in February rose by 0.1% y/y (cons. -0.5%, prev. 0.1%).
Although February data suggests that the economy was on track for a steady recovery, the earthquake and tsunami in March will once again dampen the near-term outlook for business activity. As such February data is unlikely to have any material impact on the BoJ's monetary policy stance and hence the yen.
GBP
We look for a confirmed Q4 GDP contraction at -0.60% q/q and +1.50% y/y. The revision should have less of an impact given that sterling was already knocked lower by the initial release. Details on the drivers behind the Q4 correction will be of interest and we remain cautious on sterling as Q1 data has disappointed somewhat and the latest BoE minutes showed the MPC is not closer to a policy shift despite still above-target inflation. A weak print could also cause MPC members to think twice about voting for tightening.
CAD
BoC Deputy Governor Boivin gave no comment on the outlook for Canadian monetary policy but did say that the appreciation of the Canadian dollar highlights the need to become more productive. Boivin's comments echoed recent comments from other officials, suggesting that while CAD strength remains a concern, it is accepted as likely to persist for now.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
29th of March 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
29 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDJPY eyes 82.01.
EURUSD BULLISH Initial resistance is at 1.4194; break above this would expose 1.4249/82 zone. Support lies at 1.3981.
USDJPY NEUTRAL The pair eyes 82.01; a break here would expose 82.45. Initial support lies at 80.69.
GBPUSD BEARISH Push through 1.5977/64 support area has exposed 1.5873 ahead of 1.5822. Resistance is at 1.6142.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Recovery through 0.9317 would open 0.9369; break below 0.9076 would instead expose 0.8964.
AUDUSD BULLISH Positive momentum; move above 1.0315 would expose 1.0400/25. Near-term support is at 1.0187.
USDCAD BEARISH Fall through the initial support at 0.9705 would expose 0.9668 key low. Resistance at 0.9844.
EURCHF BULLISH Break through 1.3004/40 area would signal scope for gains towards 1.3138. Support is at 1.2788/36.
EURGBP BULLISH Move above 0.8820 would expose 0.8885. Near-term support is at 0.8740.
EURJPY BULLISH Pressures 115.57; a break would open 116.00/68 resistance area. Support lies at 113.56.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
29 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDJPY eyes 82.01.
EURUSD BULLISH Initial resistance is at 1.4194; break above this would expose 1.4249/82 zone. Support lies at 1.3981.
USDJPY NEUTRAL The pair eyes 82.01; a break here would expose 82.45. Initial support lies at 80.69.
GBPUSD BEARISH Push through 1.5977/64 support area has exposed 1.5873 ahead of 1.5822. Resistance is at 1.6142.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Recovery through 0.9317 would open 0.9369; break below 0.9076 would instead expose 0.8964.
AUDUSD BULLISH Positive momentum; move above 1.0315 would expose 1.0400/25. Near-term support is at 1.0187.
USDCAD BEARISH Fall through the initial support at 0.9705 would expose 0.9668 key low. Resistance at 0.9844.
EURCHF BULLISH Break through 1.3004/40 area would signal scope for gains towards 1.3138. Support is at 1.2788/36.
EURGBP BULLISH Move above 0.8820 would expose 0.8885. Near-term support is at 0.8740.
EURJPY BULLISH Pressures 115.57; a break would open 116.00/68 resistance area. Support lies at 113.56.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Monday, March 28, 2011
28th of March 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
28 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDJPY targets 82.01.
EURUSD BULLISH Key support is at 1.3935; while this holds, expect recovery towards 1.4220 and 1.4249/82 resistance zone.
USDJPY NEUTRAL The pair targets 82.01; a break here would trigger positive tone and expose 82.45. Initial support lies at 80.69.
GBPUSD BEARISH Downside pressure on 1.5977/64 area, break through this would confirm the bear trend and expose 1.5873. Resistance is at 1.6142.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Recovery through 0.9198 exposes 0.9317, support lies at 0.9076.
AUDUSD BULLISH Recovery through 1.0256 has exposed 1.0333. Near-term support is at 1.0113.
USDCAD BEARISH Focus is on the downside with initial support at 0.9705 ahead of 0.9668 key low. Resistance at 0.9844.
EURCHF BULLISH Break through 1.3004/40 area would pave the way for gains towards 1.3138. Support is at 1.2788/36.
EURGBP BULLISH The cross pulled back from 0.8818; a move above this would expose 0.8885. Near-term support is at 0.8664.
EURJPY BULLISH Focus is on 115.57; break here would open up 116.00/68 area. Support lies at 113.56.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
28 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDJPY targets 82.01.
EURUSD BULLISH Key support is at 1.3935; while this holds, expect recovery towards 1.4220 and 1.4249/82 resistance zone.
USDJPY NEUTRAL The pair targets 82.01; a break here would trigger positive tone and expose 82.45. Initial support lies at 80.69.
GBPUSD BEARISH Downside pressure on 1.5977/64 area, break through this would confirm the bear trend and expose 1.5873. Resistance is at 1.6142.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Recovery through 0.9198 exposes 0.9317, support lies at 0.9076.
AUDUSD BULLISH Recovery through 1.0256 has exposed 1.0333. Near-term support is at 1.0113.
USDCAD BEARISH Focus is on the downside with initial support at 0.9705 ahead of 0.9668 key low. Resistance at 0.9844.
EURCHF BULLISH Break through 1.3004/40 area would pave the way for gains towards 1.3138. Support is at 1.2788/36.
EURGBP BULLISH The cross pulled back from 0.8818; a move above this would expose 0.8885. Near-term support is at 0.8664.
EURJPY BULLISH Focus is on 115.57; break here would open up 116.00/68 area. Support lies at 113.56.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
28th of March 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
28 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk sentiment has been more muted in overnight trading, with most Asian stock market indices trading in the red amid weaker earnings releases and continuing worries over Japan's Fukushima nuclear plant. The euro has been capped due to German Chancellor Merkel's CDU party losing power in Baden-Wurttemburg for the first time in six decades. The defeat was mainly attributed to the party's handling of the nuclear power debate in the wake of Japan's crisis. EURUSD traded 1.4021-1.4069 and USDJPY traded 81.39-81-78.
The greenback was also supported by more hawkish comments by Fed members. Although the Fed's Plosser and Fisher are in any case considered to be hawkish policy board members, their comments on Friday went far to convince investors that the Fed is indeed more inclined to think about normalization rather than the need to maintain stimulus in the months ahead. Upcoming speeches by Fed officials and US data will continue to attract investor attention. Lockhart, Evans (a voting member) and Rosengren will be speaking through the day, while core PCE figures will again test whether the Fed's efforts to avoid deflationary pressures are bearing fruit. In the Eurozone, Trichet will be speaking at 1300 GMT and investors will also watch for any sign of Portugal moving towards an aid request.
EUR
The EU leaders summit ended without any major market-moving agreement. Even though leaders again pledged on Friday to have the EUR440 bn lending capacity for the EFSF in place, there were no 11th-hour agreements on early implementation and investors will still need to wait until June for details.
For the Eurozone fund as of 2013 it was agreed that EUR16 bn would be paid in per year over 5 years, instead of the EUR40 bn upfront that had initially been agreed last Monday.
German Chancellor Merkel's CDU party lost power in Baden-Wurttemburg for the first time in six decades. Discontent over the nuclear issue helped the Greens win 24.2% of the vote.
Trichet will speak today and German retail sales are due.
JPY
The situation in Fukushima remains worrying but we expect developments from Japan to have less of a bearing on markets ahead as the economic cost of the tragedy has broadly been factored into markets. The Q1 Tankan survey will be released this week, though market interpretation will be difficult given recent events.
The carry trade is showing some signs of life and investors may looking to go long USDJPY in anticipation of possible intervention and as the BoJ looks set to lag policy normalization by other central banks for a long time.
GBP
A combination of soft data and adverse commentary hurt sterling last week, and investors should be on guard for a further unwinding of interest rate expectations, as economic uncertainty increases. Ahead this week, GDP figures will reveal the extent of the Q4 correction in growth and a very weak print could cause MPC members to think twice about voting for tightening.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
28 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk sentiment has been more muted in overnight trading, with most Asian stock market indices trading in the red amid weaker earnings releases and continuing worries over Japan's Fukushima nuclear plant. The euro has been capped due to German Chancellor Merkel's CDU party losing power in Baden-Wurttemburg for the first time in six decades. The defeat was mainly attributed to the party's handling of the nuclear power debate in the wake of Japan's crisis. EURUSD traded 1.4021-1.4069 and USDJPY traded 81.39-81-78.
The greenback was also supported by more hawkish comments by Fed members. Although the Fed's Plosser and Fisher are in any case considered to be hawkish policy board members, their comments on Friday went far to convince investors that the Fed is indeed more inclined to think about normalization rather than the need to maintain stimulus in the months ahead. Upcoming speeches by Fed officials and US data will continue to attract investor attention. Lockhart, Evans (a voting member) and Rosengren will be speaking through the day, while core PCE figures will again test whether the Fed's efforts to avoid deflationary pressures are bearing fruit. In the Eurozone, Trichet will be speaking at 1300 GMT and investors will also watch for any sign of Portugal moving towards an aid request.
EUR
The EU leaders summit ended without any major market-moving agreement. Even though leaders again pledged on Friday to have the EUR440 bn lending capacity for the EFSF in place, there were no 11th-hour agreements on early implementation and investors will still need to wait until June for details.
For the Eurozone fund as of 2013 it was agreed that EUR16 bn would be paid in per year over 5 years, instead of the EUR40 bn upfront that had initially been agreed last Monday.
German Chancellor Merkel's CDU party lost power in Baden-Wurttemburg for the first time in six decades. Discontent over the nuclear issue helped the Greens win 24.2% of the vote.
Trichet will speak today and German retail sales are due.
JPY
The situation in Fukushima remains worrying but we expect developments from Japan to have less of a bearing on markets ahead as the economic cost of the tragedy has broadly been factored into markets. The Q1 Tankan survey will be released this week, though market interpretation will be difficult given recent events.
The carry trade is showing some signs of life and investors may looking to go long USDJPY in anticipation of possible intervention and as the BoJ looks set to lag policy normalization by other central banks for a long time.
GBP
A combination of soft data and adverse commentary hurt sterling last week, and investors should be on guard for a further unwinding of interest rate expectations, as economic uncertainty increases. Ahead this week, GDP figures will reveal the extent of the Q4 correction in growth and a very weak print could cause MPC members to think twice about voting for tightening.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Friday, March 25, 2011
25th of March 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
25 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURGBP 0.8818 resistance.
EURUSD BULLISH Sustained break through the 1.4249/82 resistance area would open up the way towards 1.4373. Initial support is at 1.4054.
USDJPY BEARISH Remains heavy below 82.01; initial support is at 80.00 ahead of 78.83.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Initial support is at 1.6977/64 zone, while resistance is at 1.6267 ahead of 1.6401/58 area.
USDCHF BEARISH While resistance at 0.9198 is intact, focus is on initial support 0.8964 ahead of 0.8852 key low.
AUDUSD BULLISH Rise through 1.0202 has exposed key resistance at 1.0256. Initial support lies at 1.0065.
USDCAD BEARISH Focus is on the downside with initial support at 0.9705 ahead of 0.9668 key low. Resistance at 0.9844.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Initial resistance is at 1.2945, support at 1.2736.
EURGBP BULLISH Sudden climb through 0.8761 and 0.8787 has exposed 0.8818; a break here would expose 0.8885. Near-term support is at 0.8664.
EURJPY BULLISH Focus is on 115.57, clearance of this level would open the way towards 116.00/68 area. Support lies at 113.56.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
25 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURGBP 0.8818 resistance.
EURUSD BULLISH Sustained break through the 1.4249/82 resistance area would open up the way towards 1.4373. Initial support is at 1.4054.
USDJPY BEARISH Remains heavy below 82.01; initial support is at 80.00 ahead of 78.83.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Initial support is at 1.6977/64 zone, while resistance is at 1.6267 ahead of 1.6401/58 area.
USDCHF BEARISH While resistance at 0.9198 is intact, focus is on initial support 0.8964 ahead of 0.8852 key low.
AUDUSD BULLISH Rise through 1.0202 has exposed key resistance at 1.0256. Initial support lies at 1.0065.
USDCAD BEARISH Focus is on the downside with initial support at 0.9705 ahead of 0.9668 key low. Resistance at 0.9844.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Initial resistance is at 1.2945, support at 1.2736.
EURGBP BULLISH Sudden climb through 0.8761 and 0.8787 has exposed 0.8818; a break here would expose 0.8885. Near-term support is at 0.8664.
EURJPY BULLISH Focus is on 115.57, clearance of this level would open the way towards 116.00/68 area. Support lies at 113.56.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
25th of March 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
25 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk sentiment has been stable in Asian hours, with most regional stock market indices trading in the black. The improvement in sentiment was mostly a reaction to yesterday's constructive performance of US equities, which advanced on the back of several better-than-expected earnings releases. Conditions at Japan's nuclear plants are still being closely followed, but without deterioration in the news flow and as the notion intensifies that reconstruction will support economic activity, investors' buying interest in Asian stocks has endured. Indeed, Japanese finance ministry data shows non-domestic investors have been net buyers of Japanese stocks recently. Elsewhere, the EU leaders summit continued to attract attention, with a press conference scheduled for later today. EU leaders have reached an agreement with respect to the Eurozone rescue fund. On a different note, the euro has been capped following another ratings downgrade of Portugal. EURUSD traded 1.4182-1.4163 and USDJPY traded 80.97-81.03. Data-wise, the third estimate of US Q4 GDP and the final March reading for the University of Michigan confidence index will be released today. In addition the German Ifo data will be closely followed.
EUR
The euro has been capped overnight, mainly in reaction to S&P downgrading Portugal by two notches to BBB. The agency cited political uncertainty as the main motivation for the downgrade and said another downgrade is possible early next week, depending on the final shape of the Eurozone bailout fund.
EU Council President Van Rompuy said EU leaders agreed the EFSF will have EUR440 bn effective capacity by June. For the Eurozone fund as of 2013 it was agreed that EUR16bn would be paid in per year over 5 years, instead of the EUR40bn upfront that had initially been agreed on Monday. German Chancellor Merkel had said yesterday that the EU summit will agree to a package to aid the euro. Portuguese government officials brushed away speculation that a bailout was inevitable.
We do not expect Portugal-related tensions to have any lasting or material impact on the euro. Ultimately we believe that rate expectations will remain the currency's main driver unless confidence for the Eurozone as a whole starts to suffer again.
JPY
In line with market expectations core CPI in March fell by 0.3% y/y (previous -0.4%). Still declining consumer prices suggest that the underlying deflationary trend remains intact. However, as the BoJ is already in emergency mode, the latest data is unlikely to have any major impact on the central bank's monetary policy stance.
GBP
Sterling took several knocks on the combination of bad data and commentary yesterday. Retail sales were below expectations at -1.0% m/m and the figures for January were also revised lower. This comes on the back of a relatively disappointing BoE minutes release. And BoE Chief Economist Spencer Dale maintained his view that growth and inflation risks justify rate increases but also said he can reverse his vote if growth turns out to be weaker than expected. Given the recent shifts in the global economic outlook, this may hold a higher probability in the coming months, though inflation is expected to remain elevated.
Moody's warned earlier that risks of slower growth and weaker fiscal consolidation could endanger the UK's AAA rating. They warned risks to UK growth were skewed to the downside right now and the economy is still particularly challenged.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
25 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk sentiment has been stable in Asian hours, with most regional stock market indices trading in the black. The improvement in sentiment was mostly a reaction to yesterday's constructive performance of US equities, which advanced on the back of several better-than-expected earnings releases. Conditions at Japan's nuclear plants are still being closely followed, but without deterioration in the news flow and as the notion intensifies that reconstruction will support economic activity, investors' buying interest in Asian stocks has endured. Indeed, Japanese finance ministry data shows non-domestic investors have been net buyers of Japanese stocks recently. Elsewhere, the EU leaders summit continued to attract attention, with a press conference scheduled for later today. EU leaders have reached an agreement with respect to the Eurozone rescue fund. On a different note, the euro has been capped following another ratings downgrade of Portugal. EURUSD traded 1.4182-1.4163 and USDJPY traded 80.97-81.03. Data-wise, the third estimate of US Q4 GDP and the final March reading for the University of Michigan confidence index will be released today. In addition the German Ifo data will be closely followed.
EUR
The euro has been capped overnight, mainly in reaction to S&P downgrading Portugal by two notches to BBB. The agency cited political uncertainty as the main motivation for the downgrade and said another downgrade is possible early next week, depending on the final shape of the Eurozone bailout fund.
EU Council President Van Rompuy said EU leaders agreed the EFSF will have EUR440 bn effective capacity by June. For the Eurozone fund as of 2013 it was agreed that EUR16bn would be paid in per year over 5 years, instead of the EUR40bn upfront that had initially been agreed on Monday. German Chancellor Merkel had said yesterday that the EU summit will agree to a package to aid the euro. Portuguese government officials brushed away speculation that a bailout was inevitable.
We do not expect Portugal-related tensions to have any lasting or material impact on the euro. Ultimately we believe that rate expectations will remain the currency's main driver unless confidence for the Eurozone as a whole starts to suffer again.
JPY
In line with market expectations core CPI in March fell by 0.3% y/y (previous -0.4%). Still declining consumer prices suggest that the underlying deflationary trend remains intact. However, as the BoJ is already in emergency mode, the latest data is unlikely to have any major impact on the central bank's monetary policy stance.
GBP
Sterling took several knocks on the combination of bad data and commentary yesterday. Retail sales were below expectations at -1.0% m/m and the figures for January were also revised lower. This comes on the back of a relatively disappointing BoE minutes release. And BoE Chief Economist Spencer Dale maintained his view that growth and inflation risks justify rate increases but also said he can reverse his vote if growth turns out to be weaker than expected. Given the recent shifts in the global economic outlook, this may hold a higher probability in the coming months, though inflation is expected to remain elevated.
Moody's warned earlier that risks of slower growth and weaker fiscal consolidation could endanger the UK's AAA rating. They warned risks to UK growth were skewed to the downside right now and the economy is still particularly challenged.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Thursday, March 24, 2011
24th of March 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
24 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD 1.3981 support.
EURUSD BULLISH As long as support at 1.3981 holds, look for resistance area 1.4249/82. Break above this would open up 1.4373 next.
USDJPY BEARISH Focus is on 80.00; a break here would expose 78.83. Near-term resistance lies at 82.01.
GBPUSD BULLISH Move above 1.6401 would pave the way for a climb to 1.6458 and 1.6500. Support is at 1.6204 ahead of 1.6143.
USDCHF BEARISH The pair eyes 0.9198 resistance. Overall focus is on the downside with initial support at 0.8964 ahead of 0.8852 key low.
AUDUSD BULLISH Break of 1.0162 would trigger a bull trend and open way to 1.0202. Initial support lies at 1.0038.
USDCAD BULLISH Near-term resistance is at 0.9867, while support lies at 0.9735. Only a break above 0.9974 would confirm the bull trend.
EURCHF BEARISH Move below 1.2660 would expose 1.2571. Resistance is at 1.2887.
EURGBP BULLISH While support at 0.8626 holds, expect the cross to target 0.8761/87 resistance area.
EURJPY BULLISH Break of 115.57 would signal scope for further gains towards 116.00/68 area; Support lies at 113.06.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
24 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD 1.3981 support.
EURUSD BULLISH As long as support at 1.3981 holds, look for resistance area 1.4249/82. Break above this would open up 1.4373 next.
USDJPY BEARISH Focus is on 80.00; a break here would expose 78.83. Near-term resistance lies at 82.01.
GBPUSD BULLISH Move above 1.6401 would pave the way for a climb to 1.6458 and 1.6500. Support is at 1.6204 ahead of 1.6143.
USDCHF BEARISH The pair eyes 0.9198 resistance. Overall focus is on the downside with initial support at 0.8964 ahead of 0.8852 key low.
AUDUSD BULLISH Break of 1.0162 would trigger a bull trend and open way to 1.0202. Initial support lies at 1.0038.
USDCAD BULLISH Near-term resistance is at 0.9867, while support lies at 0.9735. Only a break above 0.9974 would confirm the bull trend.
EURCHF BEARISH Move below 1.2660 would expose 1.2571. Resistance is at 1.2887.
EURGBP BULLISH While support at 0.8626 holds, expect the cross to target 0.8761/87 resistance area.
EURJPY BULLISH Break of 115.57 would signal scope for further gains towards 116.00/68 area; Support lies at 113.06.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
24th of March 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
24 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
In the absence of any negative news, risk sentiment has been broadly stable in Asian hours. Better-than-expected New Zealand growth data, Japanese manufacturers starting to produce again, and constructive earnings releases in China have all contributed to the steadier tone. As a result most Asian stock market indices are trading in the black. US stock futures, however, are broadly flat. In FX, the euro has been capped after the Portuguese parliament rejected the minority coalition's austerity plan and after the press cited a draft document that said no decisions would be made at this week's EU leaders summit. EURUSD traded 1.4070-1.4090 and USDJPY traded 80.83-81.06. Fed Chairman Bernanke offered no new insights during his speech yesterday.
EUR
Sovereign worries and political uncertainty returned to the forefront as the Portuguese opposition rejected the minority coalition's austerity plan. This raises questions about future leadership though the government remains for now despite the resignation of Prime Minister Socrates. The lack of an austerity plan increases the chances that Portugal could seek external assistance. The vote came after Reuters cited a draft document for this week's EU leaders summit that said no final decisions would emerge and that implementation of changes to the EFSF would more likely come at the end of June. Peripheral yields have been rising in recent days and the prospect of no decision from the summit has some market participants shifting focus to euro downside.
Given Portugal's low systemic risk for the Eurozone as a whole and as the latest developments are unlikely to have any material impact on the ECB's monetary policy stance, further EURUSD downside is likely be limited. We believe that inflation and rate expectations will continue to drive the euro for now.
Ahead today, manufacturing and services PMI for March will be released. Any confirmation of further improving growth conditions would also keep inflation risk on the upside.
JPY
The Japanese authorities noted the stock loss of the March 11 earthquake would range between JPY15-25 trn. The upper bound is probably to the higher side of general estimates but markets have factored this in. Authorities continue to deny the existence of any repatriation effects.
GBP
The MPC voted 6-3 to keep rates on hold, and 8-1 on the QE program. Weale, Dale and Sentance remained in favour of a hike. Our economists note the headlines suggest the tone is broadly unchanged from February. However, the March meeting occurred before events in Japan and the Middle East, so the MPC will likely be much more cautious at the April meeting, undermining prospects of a near-term rate hike. Sterling suffered as a result and gave back its gains following a higher CPI print the day before. We remain short GBPCAD as a trade recommendation.
The UK budget proved to be a non-event as it showed a broadly unchanged fiscal consolidation profile. The Office for Budget Responsibility revised down its growth forecasts as expected and the inflation forecast was revised higher. Most of the details concerned specific tax and spending measures.
NZD
New Zealand GDP in Q4 2010 was better than expected mainly on the back of a stronger export sector. Q4 GDP turned out above forecasts at 0.8% y/y (prev. 1.5%, cons. 0.7%) and 0.2% q/q (prev. -0.2%, cons. 0.1%). There had been worries that the economy may slip back into recession after growth contracted in Q3 2010.
Given the RBNZ's decision to cut rates as a precaution after the February Christchurch earthquake and rising expectations that reconstruction will support economic activity ahead, growth expectations' may improve again from current levels. Under such conditions, and as long as risk sentiment remains stable, NZD downside is likely to be constrained.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
24 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
In the absence of any negative news, risk sentiment has been broadly stable in Asian hours. Better-than-expected New Zealand growth data, Japanese manufacturers starting to produce again, and constructive earnings releases in China have all contributed to the steadier tone. As a result most Asian stock market indices are trading in the black. US stock futures, however, are broadly flat. In FX, the euro has been capped after the Portuguese parliament rejected the minority coalition's austerity plan and after the press cited a draft document that said no decisions would be made at this week's EU leaders summit. EURUSD traded 1.4070-1.4090 and USDJPY traded 80.83-81.06. Fed Chairman Bernanke offered no new insights during his speech yesterday.
EUR
Sovereign worries and political uncertainty returned to the forefront as the Portuguese opposition rejected the minority coalition's austerity plan. This raises questions about future leadership though the government remains for now despite the resignation of Prime Minister Socrates. The lack of an austerity plan increases the chances that Portugal could seek external assistance. The vote came after Reuters cited a draft document for this week's EU leaders summit that said no final decisions would emerge and that implementation of changes to the EFSF would more likely come at the end of June. Peripheral yields have been rising in recent days and the prospect of no decision from the summit has some market participants shifting focus to euro downside.
Given Portugal's low systemic risk for the Eurozone as a whole and as the latest developments are unlikely to have any material impact on the ECB's monetary policy stance, further EURUSD downside is likely be limited. We believe that inflation and rate expectations will continue to drive the euro for now.
Ahead today, manufacturing and services PMI for March will be released. Any confirmation of further improving growth conditions would also keep inflation risk on the upside.
JPY
The Japanese authorities noted the stock loss of the March 11 earthquake would range between JPY15-25 trn. The upper bound is probably to the higher side of general estimates but markets have factored this in. Authorities continue to deny the existence of any repatriation effects.
GBP
The MPC voted 6-3 to keep rates on hold, and 8-1 on the QE program. Weale, Dale and Sentance remained in favour of a hike. Our economists note the headlines suggest the tone is broadly unchanged from February. However, the March meeting occurred before events in Japan and the Middle East, so the MPC will likely be much more cautious at the April meeting, undermining prospects of a near-term rate hike. Sterling suffered as a result and gave back its gains following a higher CPI print the day before. We remain short GBPCAD as a trade recommendation.
The UK budget proved to be a non-event as it showed a broadly unchanged fiscal consolidation profile. The Office for Budget Responsibility revised down its growth forecasts as expected and the inflation forecast was revised higher. Most of the details concerned specific tax and spending measures.
NZD
New Zealand GDP in Q4 2010 was better than expected mainly on the back of a stronger export sector. Q4 GDP turned out above forecasts at 0.8% y/y (prev. 1.5%, cons. 0.7%) and 0.2% q/q (prev. -0.2%, cons. 0.1%). There had been worries that the economy may slip back into recession after growth contracted in Q3 2010.
Given the RBNZ's decision to cut rates as a precaution after the February Christchurch earthquake and rising expectations that reconstruction will support economic activity ahead, growth expectations' may improve again from current levels. Under such conditions, and as long as risk sentiment remains stable, NZD downside is likely to be constrained.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
23rd of March 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
23 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDJPY 82.01 resistance holds.
EURUSD BULLISH Upside potential found resistance below 1.4282 key high, a break of this level would expose 1.4373 and 1.4423. Initial support is at 1.3981.
USDJPY BEARISH Resistance at 82.01 holds, while a move below initial support 80.00 would open way to 78.83.
GBPUSD BULLISH Rise through 1.6458 would favor extension of the bull trend towards 1.6516. Near-term support is at 1.6293.
USDCHF BEARISH Support is at 0.8964, break of this level would expose 0.8852. Initial resistance is at 0.9198.
AUDUSD NEUTRAL The pair holds below 1.0162; a break here would trigger a bull trend. A move below 1.0000 initial support would open 0.9932 instead.
USDCAD NEUTRAL 0.9974 and 0.9668 mark the key directional triggers. Near-term resistance is at 0.9867, while support lies at 0.9735.
EURCHF BEARISH Break of 1.2755 would expose 1.2571, while resistance is at 1.2945.
EURGBP BULLISH AS long as the pullback holds above 0.8626, expect recovery towards 0.8761/87 resistance area.
EURJPY BULLISH Push above 115.57 would open up the way for gains towards 116.00/68 area; short-term support is at 114.41.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
23 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDJPY 82.01 resistance holds.
EURUSD BULLISH Upside potential found resistance below 1.4282 key high, a break of this level would expose 1.4373 and 1.4423. Initial support is at 1.3981.
USDJPY BEARISH Resistance at 82.01 holds, while a move below initial support 80.00 would open way to 78.83.
GBPUSD BULLISH Rise through 1.6458 would favor extension of the bull trend towards 1.6516. Near-term support is at 1.6293.
USDCHF BEARISH Support is at 0.8964, break of this level would expose 0.8852. Initial resistance is at 0.9198.
AUDUSD NEUTRAL The pair holds below 1.0162; a break here would trigger a bull trend. A move below 1.0000 initial support would open 0.9932 instead.
USDCAD NEUTRAL 0.9974 and 0.9668 mark the key directional triggers. Near-term resistance is at 0.9867, while support lies at 0.9735.
EURCHF BEARISH Break of 1.2755 would expose 1.2571, while resistance is at 1.2945.
EURGBP BULLISH AS long as the pullback holds above 0.8626, expect recovery towards 0.8761/87 resistance area.
EURJPY BULLISH Push above 115.57 would open up the way for gains towards 116.00/68 area; short-term support is at 114.41.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
23rd of March 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
23 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk sentiment has been unstable in overnight trading as concerns over potential radiation leaks from Japan's nuclear plant intensify and after further aftershocks struck the northern part of Japan early on Wednesday. The Nikkei 225 closed 1.65% lower.
Focus is also shifting back to the Eurozone periphery with Portugal's parliament due to vote on budget cuts today. A rejection of austerity measures may lead to the collapse of the government and early elections. EURUSD traded 1.4153-1.4182 overnight and USDJPY traded 80.84-81.04.
Fed Chairman Bernanke is also due to speak today and should echo the latest FOMC statement. Recent Fed speakers, including Dallas Fed President Fisher and Cleveland Fed President Pianalto, yielded little new policy insights in their latest comments, as Fisher remained hawkish and Pianalto expected commodity-related inflation pressures to subside.
EUR
Peripheral concerns flared up ahead of the EU leaders summit as a spokesperson for an effectively nationalized Irish bank had to deny earlier reports it would miss coupon payments. Sovereign yields rose also as Greece said it cannot go back to markets at current levels and concerns emerged over the Portuguese government. These concerns underscore the need for the EU to follow through on the policy framework from the March 11 summit.
Today's vote on budget cuts by the Portuguese parliament will attract investors' attention. Any negative outcome would most likely lead to early elections and raise the risk of Portugal asking for external aid. Prime Minister Socrates said he would quit should there be no agreement on budget cuts.
ECB's Stark said further intervention in the yen is up to the Japanese authorities, though the G7 will be ready to provide support if needed. He affirmed the strong risk of second-round affects and said there were good reasons for normalization of the ECB's policy stance.
JPY
The yen continues to trade in a tight range versus the dollar, and Japanese officials remain vigilant on the currency, which should curb selling interest in USDJPY. As it would take a material change in Fed rate expectations to drive the pair materially higher, it's likely to trade in a narrow range for now.
Money-market data released from the BoJ overnight points to net sales of ?530 bn, far less than the ?2-3 trn reported on Friday and also less than the amounts done last September. However, we expect further rounds of sales to come as price action and general economic conditions warrant.
GBP
CPI figures were higher than expected at 0.7% m/m and 4.4% y/y and RPI was also stronger than consensus. Our economists note it is not clear if the figures exceed BoE expectations as the Inflation Reported showed Q1 CPI around 4.1% and it looks like the final number will be near 4.1%-4.2%. The GBP7.0 bn shortfall in public finances was disappointing, and may raise the pressure on the Chancellor ahead of the budget presentation.
March MPC minutes are the next obstacle for sterling bulls to navigate. An unchanged vote could disappoint bulls but any more votes for hiking, combined with the stronger CPI print this week, could push up BoE rate expectations and sterling, especially if risk sentiment remains stable. Separately, UK Chancellor Osborne will present the budget along with the Office for Budget Responsibility's new macro forecasts. Our UK economist expects the budget to be a macro non-event as details will focus more on specific tax/spending measures. We remain short GBPCAD as a trade recommendation.
CHF
SNB Chairman Hildebrand offered little new on policy as he said the SNB would always act in the interest of the economy, and expected the economy to expand about 2% this year. He said inflation was weak despite the oil surge while Swiss trade data showed 16% real growth in exports and a trade balance of CHF2.49 bn as the export sector is weathering a strong franc extremely well. That said, we believe the franc's impact on monetary conditions and export competitiveness will keep the SNB cautious about changing policy in the near term. We remain long EURCHF as a trade recommendation.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
23 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk sentiment has been unstable in overnight trading as concerns over potential radiation leaks from Japan's nuclear plant intensify and after further aftershocks struck the northern part of Japan early on Wednesday. The Nikkei 225 closed 1.65% lower.
Focus is also shifting back to the Eurozone periphery with Portugal's parliament due to vote on budget cuts today. A rejection of austerity measures may lead to the collapse of the government and early elections. EURUSD traded 1.4153-1.4182 overnight and USDJPY traded 80.84-81.04.
Fed Chairman Bernanke is also due to speak today and should echo the latest FOMC statement. Recent Fed speakers, including Dallas Fed President Fisher and Cleveland Fed President Pianalto, yielded little new policy insights in their latest comments, as Fisher remained hawkish and Pianalto expected commodity-related inflation pressures to subside.
EUR
Peripheral concerns flared up ahead of the EU leaders summit as a spokesperson for an effectively nationalized Irish bank had to deny earlier reports it would miss coupon payments. Sovereign yields rose also as Greece said it cannot go back to markets at current levels and concerns emerged over the Portuguese government. These concerns underscore the need for the EU to follow through on the policy framework from the March 11 summit.
Today's vote on budget cuts by the Portuguese parliament will attract investors' attention. Any negative outcome would most likely lead to early elections and raise the risk of Portugal asking for external aid. Prime Minister Socrates said he would quit should there be no agreement on budget cuts.
ECB's Stark said further intervention in the yen is up to the Japanese authorities, though the G7 will be ready to provide support if needed. He affirmed the strong risk of second-round affects and said there were good reasons for normalization of the ECB's policy stance.
JPY
The yen continues to trade in a tight range versus the dollar, and Japanese officials remain vigilant on the currency, which should curb selling interest in USDJPY. As it would take a material change in Fed rate expectations to drive the pair materially higher, it's likely to trade in a narrow range for now.
Money-market data released from the BoJ overnight points to net sales of ?530 bn, far less than the ?2-3 trn reported on Friday and also less than the amounts done last September. However, we expect further rounds of sales to come as price action and general economic conditions warrant.
GBP
CPI figures were higher than expected at 0.7% m/m and 4.4% y/y and RPI was also stronger than consensus. Our economists note it is not clear if the figures exceed BoE expectations as the Inflation Reported showed Q1 CPI around 4.1% and it looks like the final number will be near 4.1%-4.2%. The GBP7.0 bn shortfall in public finances was disappointing, and may raise the pressure on the Chancellor ahead of the budget presentation.
March MPC minutes are the next obstacle for sterling bulls to navigate. An unchanged vote could disappoint bulls but any more votes for hiking, combined with the stronger CPI print this week, could push up BoE rate expectations and sterling, especially if risk sentiment remains stable. Separately, UK Chancellor Osborne will present the budget along with the Office for Budget Responsibility's new macro forecasts. Our UK economist expects the budget to be a macro non-event as details will focus more on specific tax/spending measures. We remain short GBPCAD as a trade recommendation.
CHF
SNB Chairman Hildebrand offered little new on policy as he said the SNB would always act in the interest of the economy, and expected the economy to expand about 2% this year. He said inflation was weak despite the oil surge while Swiss trade data showed 16% real growth in exports and a trade balance of CHF2.49 bn as the export sector is weathering a strong franc extremely well. That said, we believe the franc's impact on monetary conditions and export competitiveness will keep the SNB cautious about changing policy in the near term. We remain long EURCHF as a trade recommendation.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
22nd of March 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
22 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk sentiment has been stable in Asian hours, mainly as a reaction to more stable conditions at Japan's nuclear reactors and yesterday's constructive performance in US stock markets. Prime Minister Kan said that the nuclear situation is getting better bit by bit and that a reconstruction plan must be prepared. Nevertheless more progress is needed before the situation can be evaluated as safe. Prospects of rising reconstruction activity in Japan have also increased demand for regional stocks. The Nikkei advanced by 3.70% at the time of writing.
The euro has also been stable, mostly due to firm rate expectations backed by ECB members' hawkish monetary policy stance. EURUSD traded 1.4208-1.4230 overnight and USDJPY traded 80.85-81.23. Today's focus will be on UK CPI for February, Canadian retail sales and several speeches by Fed members and SNB Chairman Hildebrand.
EUR
Eurogroup President Juncker and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) will have a capital base of EUR700 bn-EUR80 bn paid in, with the rest callable and that the ESM would have the ability to intervene in the primary debt market. German Finance Minister Schaeuble said the German share of ESM capital would be around 27%.
ECB President Trichet and ECB Executive Board Member Tumpel-Gugerell reinforced the message that 'exceptionally strong vigilance' is needed on inflation. Even though risk aversion and growth concerns have dampened expectations for an ECB move in April, we still expect them to remain on track for early tightening.
As long as risk sentiment remains stable, the euro is likely to be driven by relative rate expectations and capital flows. The ECB's more hawkish monetary policy stance is set to keep rate expectations supported. Our equity flow monitor shows the Eurozone continues to attract equity-related capital inflows.
JPY
The yen continues to trade in a tight range versus the greenback. Given the high probability of coordinated G7 intervention we expect selling interest in USDJPY to remain relatively low. As it would take a material change in Fed rate expectations to drive the pair materially higher, it's likely to trade in a narrow range for now..
GBP
CPI data is due in the UK. At 4.1% y/y, our economists expect a slightly lower reading than the consensus for 4.2% (previous 4.0%). Inflation and hence rate expectations will remain the pound's main driver for now.
CHF
The Swiss franc has been capped versus the euro as risk sentiment stabilizes this week. Investors are also focused on comments by SNB members to evaluate the outlook for policy tightening. We believe the franc's impact on monetary conditions and export competitiveness will keep the SNB cautious about changing its monetary policy stance. SNB Chairman Hildebrand recently said the economy will slow over the year given that CHF strength is a burden to exports.
Hildebrand is due to speak again today and we expect no change in tone. The franc should therefore continue to be driven more by external factors.
With the ECB expected to begin hiking rates in April and the SNB likely to lag for several months, we expect relative rate expectations to drive EURCHF higher in the short to medium term. As such we recommended re-entering a long EURCHF trade at 1.2825 for a move higher to 1.3500 with a stop below the all-time low at 1.2400.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
22 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk sentiment has been stable in Asian hours, mainly as a reaction to more stable conditions at Japan's nuclear reactors and yesterday's constructive performance in US stock markets. Prime Minister Kan said that the nuclear situation is getting better bit by bit and that a reconstruction plan must be prepared. Nevertheless more progress is needed before the situation can be evaluated as safe. Prospects of rising reconstruction activity in Japan have also increased demand for regional stocks. The Nikkei advanced by 3.70% at the time of writing.
The euro has also been stable, mostly due to firm rate expectations backed by ECB members' hawkish monetary policy stance. EURUSD traded 1.4208-1.4230 overnight and USDJPY traded 80.85-81.23. Today's focus will be on UK CPI for February, Canadian retail sales and several speeches by Fed members and SNB Chairman Hildebrand.
EUR
Eurogroup President Juncker and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) will have a capital base of EUR700 bn-EUR80 bn paid in, with the rest callable and that the ESM would have the ability to intervene in the primary debt market. German Finance Minister Schaeuble said the German share of ESM capital would be around 27%.
ECB President Trichet and ECB Executive Board Member Tumpel-Gugerell reinforced the message that 'exceptionally strong vigilance' is needed on inflation. Even though risk aversion and growth concerns have dampened expectations for an ECB move in April, we still expect them to remain on track for early tightening.
As long as risk sentiment remains stable, the euro is likely to be driven by relative rate expectations and capital flows. The ECB's more hawkish monetary policy stance is set to keep rate expectations supported. Our equity flow monitor shows the Eurozone continues to attract equity-related capital inflows.
JPY
The yen continues to trade in a tight range versus the greenback. Given the high probability of coordinated G7 intervention we expect selling interest in USDJPY to remain relatively low. As it would take a material change in Fed rate expectations to drive the pair materially higher, it's likely to trade in a narrow range for now..
GBP
CPI data is due in the UK. At 4.1% y/y, our economists expect a slightly lower reading than the consensus for 4.2% (previous 4.0%). Inflation and hence rate expectations will remain the pound's main driver for now.
CHF
The Swiss franc has been capped versus the euro as risk sentiment stabilizes this week. Investors are also focused on comments by SNB members to evaluate the outlook for policy tightening. We believe the franc's impact on monetary conditions and export competitiveness will keep the SNB cautious about changing its monetary policy stance. SNB Chairman Hildebrand recently said the economy will slow over the year given that CHF strength is a burden to exports.
Hildebrand is due to speak again today and we expect no change in tone. The franc should therefore continue to be driven more by external factors.
With the ECB expected to begin hiking rates in April and the SNB likely to lag for several months, we expect relative rate expectations to drive EURCHF higher in the short to medium term. As such we recommended re-entering a long EURCHF trade at 1.2825 for a move higher to 1.3500 with a stop below the all-time low at 1.2400.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Monday, March 21, 2011
21st of March 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
21 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk sentiment has improved early Monday, mainly on signs of further progress at a crippled Japanese nuclear plant, with US Energy Secretary Steven Chu saying that the Obama administration believes the worst of Japan's nuclear crisis is over. As a result US stock futures are trading 0.7% higher. EURUSD traded in a 1.4160-1.4181 range overnight and USDJPY traded 80.73-81.04. Japanese markets are closed for a holiday.
Military action was launched against Libya on Saturday, with US and French defense authorities saying a de-facto no-fly-zone is now in place through the country though newswires continued to report exchange of fire in different parts of the country, even though Libyan authorities once again announced a ceasefire as of 1900 GMT. Commodities are likely to remain well support amid ongoing instability in the Middle East. This week eyes will be on Europe as leaders meet to finalize arrangements for EFSF reform. The agreements from earlier in the month were welcomed by markets, but details need to be agreed and in place by Thursday if they are to be signed off at the summit and therefore put forward for ratification.
EUR
The announcement of a major M&A telecom sector deal involving a European and a US company has attracted some attention with respect to its impact on FX.. The deal, which totals USD39 bn, is planned to be settled in cash and stock. However, no details are yet available on the timing and actual settlement of the deal. The US Federal Communications Commission must approve the deal first.
As ECB expectations have been a major source of support for the euro in recent weeks, markets remain focused on central bank comments given the global economic environment has changed radically since the March ECB meeting. Nevertheless, on Friday ECB President Trichet said he had "no new message" on interest rates. He is due to speak again today at 1400 GMT. As long as risk sentiment remains stable we expect the EUR to remain driven by rate expectations. As inflation expectations are well supported on the back of firm commodity prices and with Trichet keeping his stance unchanged, the euro is likely to remain in demand.
On Friday the German Parliament voted to ban EFSF funds being utilized to buy government bonds. Our analysts note that this legislation has been in the works for a few weeks but is not legally binding. Even though steps in the right direction have been taken with regard to the Eurozone's rescue fund, implementation risk remains.
GBP
The Rightmove House Price Index showed house prices in March increased for the third consecutive month. Average house prices rose by 0.8% m/m (prev. 3.1%) and 0.9% y/y (prev. 0.3%). The state of the housing market will feature in the BoE's policy decisions but inflation worries seem to carry greater weight at this stage.
The BoE's policy decision minutes will be released this week, and our economists are looking for a 6-3 vote. Crucial CPI figures will be out on Tuesday.
The 2011-12 budget will be presented by Chancellor Osborne on Wednesday along with the Office for Budget responsibility's latest macro forecasts. Our economists note that the budget is likely to be more of an event for equity markets than gilts or FX markets.
JPY
The yen has remained capped in Asian hours. More stable risk sentiment and the high probability of coordinated G7 intervention are both limiting demand for the currency. Moody's said the downside risks from Japan's disasters have increased.
We expect yen downside to be limited from current levels and target USDJPY at 85.00 over one and three months.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
21 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk sentiment has improved early Monday, mainly on signs of further progress at a crippled Japanese nuclear plant, with US Energy Secretary Steven Chu saying that the Obama administration believes the worst of Japan's nuclear crisis is over. As a result US stock futures are trading 0.7% higher. EURUSD traded in a 1.4160-1.4181 range overnight and USDJPY traded 80.73-81.04. Japanese markets are closed for a holiday.
Military action was launched against Libya on Saturday, with US and French defense authorities saying a de-facto no-fly-zone is now in place through the country though newswires continued to report exchange of fire in different parts of the country, even though Libyan authorities once again announced a ceasefire as of 1900 GMT. Commodities are likely to remain well support amid ongoing instability in the Middle East. This week eyes will be on Europe as leaders meet to finalize arrangements for EFSF reform. The agreements from earlier in the month were welcomed by markets, but details need to be agreed and in place by Thursday if they are to be signed off at the summit and therefore put forward for ratification.
EUR
The announcement of a major M&A telecom sector deal involving a European and a US company has attracted some attention with respect to its impact on FX.. The deal, which totals USD39 bn, is planned to be settled in cash and stock. However, no details are yet available on the timing and actual settlement of the deal. The US Federal Communications Commission must approve the deal first.
As ECB expectations have been a major source of support for the euro in recent weeks, markets remain focused on central bank comments given the global economic environment has changed radically since the March ECB meeting. Nevertheless, on Friday ECB President Trichet said he had "no new message" on interest rates. He is due to speak again today at 1400 GMT. As long as risk sentiment remains stable we expect the EUR to remain driven by rate expectations. As inflation expectations are well supported on the back of firm commodity prices and with Trichet keeping his stance unchanged, the euro is likely to remain in demand.
On Friday the German Parliament voted to ban EFSF funds being utilized to buy government bonds. Our analysts note that this legislation has been in the works for a few weeks but is not legally binding. Even though steps in the right direction have been taken with regard to the Eurozone's rescue fund, implementation risk remains.
GBP
The Rightmove House Price Index showed house prices in March increased for the third consecutive month. Average house prices rose by 0.8% m/m (prev. 3.1%) and 0.9% y/y (prev. 0.3%). The state of the housing market will feature in the BoE's policy decisions but inflation worries seem to carry greater weight at this stage.
The BoE's policy decision minutes will be released this week, and our economists are looking for a 6-3 vote. Crucial CPI figures will be out on Tuesday.
The 2011-12 budget will be presented by Chancellor Osborne on Wednesday along with the Office for Budget responsibility's latest macro forecasts. Our economists note that the budget is likely to be more of an event for equity markets than gilts or FX markets.
JPY
The yen has remained capped in Asian hours. More stable risk sentiment and the high probability of coordinated G7 intervention are both limiting demand for the currency. Moody's said the downside risks from Japan's disasters have increased.
We expect yen downside to be limited from current levels and target USDJPY at 85.00 over one and three months.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Friday, March 18, 2011
18th of March 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
18 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD 1.4282 key resistance.
EURUSD BULLISH Rise above 1.4086 has exposed 1.4282 key high from Nov 4. Initial support lies at 1.3855.
USDJPY BEARISH Recovery targets 82.01 with scope for 82.45 next, while support is at 78.83 intraday low.
GBPUSD BEARISH Look for a break below 1.5964, which would confirm the bear trend and open the way to 1.5845. Near-term resistance lies at 1.6200.
USDCHF BEARISH The pair found support at 0.8852 ahead of 0.8795. Initial resistance is at 0.9198.
AUDUSD BEARISH As long as resistance at 0.9963 is intact, a break below 0.9706 would expose 0.9625.
USDCAD BULLISH While support at 0.9735 holds, look for gains towards 0.9974 and 1.0011/58 resistance area.
EURCHF BEARISH Bounce off through 1.2706 exposes 1.2854. Near-term support lies at 1.2571 ahead of 1.2433/02 support zone.
EURGBP BULLISH Focus is on 0.8787 Fibonacci level, break of this would expose 0.8818. Near-term support is at 0.8626.
EURJPY BEARISH Resistance at 116.00/68 area, while support is at 110.54 intraday low.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
18 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD 1.4282 key resistance.
EURUSD BULLISH Rise above 1.4086 has exposed 1.4282 key high from Nov 4. Initial support lies at 1.3855.
USDJPY BEARISH Recovery targets 82.01 with scope for 82.45 next, while support is at 78.83 intraday low.
GBPUSD BEARISH Look for a break below 1.5964, which would confirm the bear trend and open the way to 1.5845. Near-term resistance lies at 1.6200.
USDCHF BEARISH The pair found support at 0.8852 ahead of 0.8795. Initial resistance is at 0.9198.
AUDUSD BEARISH As long as resistance at 0.9963 is intact, a break below 0.9706 would expose 0.9625.
USDCAD BULLISH While support at 0.9735 holds, look for gains towards 0.9974 and 1.0011/58 resistance area.
EURCHF BEARISH Bounce off through 1.2706 exposes 1.2854. Near-term support lies at 1.2571 ahead of 1.2433/02 support zone.
EURGBP BULLISH Focus is on 0.8787 Fibonacci level, break of this would expose 0.8818. Near-term support is at 0.8626.
EURJPY BEARISH Resistance at 116.00/68 area, while support is at 110.54 intraday low.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
18th of March 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
18 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
In a surprise development, the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Canada agreed to engage in "concerted intervention" with the Bank of Japan "on March 18, 2011". The communique explained that the decision to intervene was taken "in response to recent movements in the exchange rate of the yen associated with the tragic events in Japan". The text also repeated the G7's concern over "excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates". Speaking later, Japan Finance Minister Noda made it clear that the BoJ would be active in USDJPY, but he was not sure in which pairs the other banks would intervene. The yen weakened v sharply on the announcement, and USDJPY continued to grind higher during the Asia session. EURUSD traded 1.3981-1.4088, USDJPY 78.83-81.89.
Elsewhere, WTI crude jumped about $2/bbl on news that the UN security council authorised a no-fly zone over Libya, and approved "all necessary measures" to protect Libyan civilians. US data offered some positives for the dollar, though market participants continue to largely overlook releases. Initial jobless claims fell as expected and continue to signal an improving labor market. CPI rose as expected while core was stronger. Our analysts noted that core CPI on a y/y basis should put pressure on the Fed to reconsider their assessment mentioned in the March 15 FOMC statement that "underlying" inflation is "subdued", especially with a strengthening labor market.
EUR
The euro held onto its early-European session gains stemming from the strong Spanish bond auction. The Spanish bond auction was considered to be strong as the bid to cover ratio for the 10-year came in at 1.81x vs. 1.54x prior. Considering the state of the market the periphery bond market is faring quite well, but we believe the market is struggling to absorb all the event risk at this stage so price action may be delayed.
ECB President Trichet speaks in Frankfurt around 1600GMT and he may wish to address the decision to embark on a round of joint intervention. On the monetary policy front, given recent comments from the ECB's Liikanen who still pointed to an April rate hike, we would not expect too much of a departure from the last time we heard Trichet speak.
CHF
The SNB kept its 3m LIBOR target unchanged at 0.25%, though we judge the SNB statement to be more dovish, which is negative for the franc. The longer-term trajectory of the inflation forecast was largely kept unchanged but even so, inflation is only expected to hit 2% in 2013 which is well beyond the necessities of short-term action. The SNB expressed particular concern about other global developments and its impact on Swiss markets, and this will likely remain the driving theme within the policymaking community.
SNB Chairman Hildebrand later said the strong Swiss franc remains a burden for the economy and could lead to a slowdown throughout the year through exports.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
18 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
In a surprise development, the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Canada agreed to engage in "concerted intervention" with the Bank of Japan "on March 18, 2011". The communique explained that the decision to intervene was taken "in response to recent movements in the exchange rate of the yen associated with the tragic events in Japan". The text also repeated the G7's concern over "excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates". Speaking later, Japan Finance Minister Noda made it clear that the BoJ would be active in USDJPY, but he was not sure in which pairs the other banks would intervene. The yen weakened v sharply on the announcement, and USDJPY continued to grind higher during the Asia session. EURUSD traded 1.3981-1.4088, USDJPY 78.83-81.89.
Elsewhere, WTI crude jumped about $2/bbl on news that the UN security council authorised a no-fly zone over Libya, and approved "all necessary measures" to protect Libyan civilians. US data offered some positives for the dollar, though market participants continue to largely overlook releases. Initial jobless claims fell as expected and continue to signal an improving labor market. CPI rose as expected while core was stronger. Our analysts noted that core CPI on a y/y basis should put pressure on the Fed to reconsider their assessment mentioned in the March 15 FOMC statement that "underlying" inflation is "subdued", especially with a strengthening labor market.
EUR
The euro held onto its early-European session gains stemming from the strong Spanish bond auction. The Spanish bond auction was considered to be strong as the bid to cover ratio for the 10-year came in at 1.81x vs. 1.54x prior. Considering the state of the market the periphery bond market is faring quite well, but we believe the market is struggling to absorb all the event risk at this stage so price action may be delayed.
ECB President Trichet speaks in Frankfurt around 1600GMT and he may wish to address the decision to embark on a round of joint intervention. On the monetary policy front, given recent comments from the ECB's Liikanen who still pointed to an April rate hike, we would not expect too much of a departure from the last time we heard Trichet speak.
CHF
The SNB kept its 3m LIBOR target unchanged at 0.25%, though we judge the SNB statement to be more dovish, which is negative for the franc. The longer-term trajectory of the inflation forecast was largely kept unchanged but even so, inflation is only expected to hit 2% in 2013 which is well beyond the necessities of short-term action. The SNB expressed particular concern about other global developments and its impact on Swiss markets, and this will likely remain the driving theme within the policymaking community.
SNB Chairman Hildebrand later said the strong Swiss franc remains a burden for the economy and could lead to a slowdown throughout the year through exports.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Thursday, March 17, 2011
17th of March 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
17 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
USDJPY recovered during the Asia session as liquidity conditions improved, but not before a new all-time low was reached at 76.36 (according to Bloomberg data). Japanese government officials also downplayed expectations that domestic insurers may be forced to repatriate assets to cover the cost of insurance payouts. EURUSD traded 1.3867-1.3968, USDJPY 76.36-80.28. Concern remains over the status of malfunctioning nuclear reactors in Japan, although the Nikkei-255 pared initial losses, and managed to close down only -1.4%. US economic data was mixed, with weaker housing starts and building permits and higher y/y headline and core PPI prints. But as has been the case the past few days, much of the data has been shrugged off as market participants await any new developments from Japan. CPI and initial jobless claims are due but any impact for the dollar could be overshadowed by continued risk aversion.
EUR
The euro weakened too during the flight to safe havens. Rate expectations for the ECB have slightly pared back since the tragedy in Japan and so ECB speakers are garnering more attention as market participants want to see how central banks might react. Bank of Finland Governor and ECB governing council member Liikanen suggested an April rate hike remains in the cards but the path thereafter remains uncertain. He says it is too early to say how the Japan situation will affect policy and deflects it to say future meetings will take into account what information/data is available at the time. He also said the bank's stance had not changed much since the March 3 meeting.
Eurozone February headline CPI was as expected at +2.4% y/y and core was slightly below consensus at 1.0% y/y.
JPY
USDJPY set an all-time low of 76.36, according to Bloomberg. USDJPY collapsed in a matter of minutes on the back of continued headlines related to the nuclear reactors in Japan, which eventually triggered a cascade of stops.
GBP
UK February claimant count was better than expected at -10.2k. This is the biggest monthly drop since June 2010. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.5%. ILO jobless numbers rose +27,000 in 3 months to Jan, the rate of 8.0% is the highest rate since January-March 2010. Our analysts note that the data is unlikely to have a material impact on the MPC decision in April or May; events at the global stage are overshadowing most local data.
CHF
We expect no change at today's SNB policy meeting, in line with the other 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. But we do look for some material adjustments to the SNB's growth outlook and also think the latest CPI in February suggests risks are to the upside for the SNB's near-term inflation outlook. The SNB adjusted growth forecasts higher at their September 2010 assessment but lowered their long-term inflation expectations at the same time. We don't expect that to be the case for this decision but just be aware that there is precedent. And even if forecasts are raised, recent currency strength could cause the SNB to err on the more dovish side.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
17 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
USDJPY recovered during the Asia session as liquidity conditions improved, but not before a new all-time low was reached at 76.36 (according to Bloomberg data). Japanese government officials also downplayed expectations that domestic insurers may be forced to repatriate assets to cover the cost of insurance payouts. EURUSD traded 1.3867-1.3968, USDJPY 76.36-80.28. Concern remains over the status of malfunctioning nuclear reactors in Japan, although the Nikkei-255 pared initial losses, and managed to close down only -1.4%. US economic data was mixed, with weaker housing starts and building permits and higher y/y headline and core PPI prints. But as has been the case the past few days, much of the data has been shrugged off as market participants await any new developments from Japan. CPI and initial jobless claims are due but any impact for the dollar could be overshadowed by continued risk aversion.
EUR
The euro weakened too during the flight to safe havens. Rate expectations for the ECB have slightly pared back since the tragedy in Japan and so ECB speakers are garnering more attention as market participants want to see how central banks might react. Bank of Finland Governor and ECB governing council member Liikanen suggested an April rate hike remains in the cards but the path thereafter remains uncertain. He says it is too early to say how the Japan situation will affect policy and deflects it to say future meetings will take into account what information/data is available at the time. He also said the bank's stance had not changed much since the March 3 meeting.
Eurozone February headline CPI was as expected at +2.4% y/y and core was slightly below consensus at 1.0% y/y.
JPY
USDJPY set an all-time low of 76.36, according to Bloomberg. USDJPY collapsed in a matter of minutes on the back of continued headlines related to the nuclear reactors in Japan, which eventually triggered a cascade of stops.
GBP
UK February claimant count was better than expected at -10.2k. This is the biggest monthly drop since June 2010. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.5%. ILO jobless numbers rose +27,000 in 3 months to Jan, the rate of 8.0% is the highest rate since January-March 2010. Our analysts note that the data is unlikely to have a material impact on the MPC decision in April or May; events at the global stage are overshadowing most local data.
CHF
We expect no change at today's SNB policy meeting, in line with the other 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. But we do look for some material adjustments to the SNB's growth outlook and also think the latest CPI in February suggests risks are to the upside for the SNB's near-term inflation outlook. The SNB adjusted growth forecasts higher at their September 2010 assessment but lowered their long-term inflation expectations at the same time. We don't expect that to be the case for this decision but just be aware that there is precedent. And even if forecasts are raised, recent currency strength could cause the SNB to err on the more dovish side.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
17th of March 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
17 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD BULLISH Remains below 1.4013/36 resistance area, move above this would open way towards 1.4086. Initial support lies at 1.3855.
USDJPY BEARISH The pair defined an all time low at 76.36. Initial resistance is at 80.22, previous low.
GBPUSD BEARISH Focus is on support zone 1.5977/64; break of this would confirm the bear trend and open up 1.5845 next. Near-term resistance lies at 1.6200.
USDCHF BEARISH The pair cleared 0.9014 and 0.8951; next support at 0.8795. Initial resistance is at 0.9198.
AUDUSD BEARISH Break below 0.9804 key support has opened up the way towards 0.9625 and 0.9537. Initial resistance lies at 0.9963.
USDCAD BULLISH Initial resistance is at 0.9974, move above this would open 1.0011/58 area. Near-term support is at 0.9807.
EURCHF BEARISH Fall through 1.2727/06 support zone has exposed 1.2402, key low from Dec 30. Resistance at 1.2706, previous low.
EURGBP BULLISH Upside potential, the cross targets 0.8787 Fibonacci level ahead of 0.8818. Near-term support is at 0.8626.
EURJPY BEARISH Sudden sell-off today found support at 106.61 ahead of 105.80/44 support zone. Near-term resistance is at 111.31.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
17 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD BULLISH Remains below 1.4013/36 resistance area, move above this would open way towards 1.4086. Initial support lies at 1.3855.
USDJPY BEARISH The pair defined an all time low at 76.36. Initial resistance is at 80.22, previous low.
GBPUSD BEARISH Focus is on support zone 1.5977/64; break of this would confirm the bear trend and open up 1.5845 next. Near-term resistance lies at 1.6200.
USDCHF BEARISH The pair cleared 0.9014 and 0.8951; next support at 0.8795. Initial resistance is at 0.9198.
AUDUSD BEARISH Break below 0.9804 key support has opened up the way towards 0.9625 and 0.9537. Initial resistance lies at 0.9963.
USDCAD BULLISH Initial resistance is at 0.9974, move above this would open 1.0011/58 area. Near-term support is at 0.9807.
EURCHF BEARISH Fall through 1.2727/06 support zone has exposed 1.2402, key low from Dec 30. Resistance at 1.2706, previous low.
EURGBP BULLISH Upside potential, the cross targets 0.8787 Fibonacci level ahead of 0.8818. Near-term support is at 0.8626.
EURJPY BEARISH Sudden sell-off today found support at 106.61 ahead of 105.80/44 support zone. Near-term resistance is at 111.31.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
16th of March 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
16 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
AUDUSD 0.9804 key support.
EURUSD BULLISH The pair eyes 1.4003/36 resistance area, break of this would expose 1.4086. Initial support lies at 1.3855, yesterday's reaction low.
USDJPY BEARISH Currently holds support at 80.61 ahead of 80.22 key support. Initial resistance defined at 82.00.
GBPUSD BEARISH Bearish pressure holds above 1.5964; a break here is required to confirm the bear trend and expose 1.5845. Near-term resistance lies at 1.6200.
USDCHF BEARISH Bearish trend is intact; break of 0.9200 has exposed 0.9000 ahead of 0.8951. Initial resistance is at 0.9369.
AUDUSD BEARISH Sharp sell-off yesterday held above 0.9804 key support ahead of 0.9739. Initial resistance defined at 1.0107.
USDCAD NEUTRAL Recovery through 0.9902/59 has exposed 1.0011/58 area. Support lies at 0.9735.
EURCHF BEARISH Focus is on 1.2727/06 support zone, while resistance is at 1.2945.
EURGBP BULLISH Momentum is positive; break of 0.8692 has exposed 0.8787 Fibonacci level ahead of 0.8818. Near-term support is at 0.8626.
EURJPY NEUTRAL Key support lies at 111.96, break of this would pave the way to 110.78 next. Resistance is at 115.02/29 area ahead of 116.00.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA
Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
16 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
AUDUSD 0.9804 key support.
EURUSD BULLISH The pair eyes 1.4003/36 resistance area, break of this would expose 1.4086. Initial support lies at 1.3855, yesterday's reaction low.
USDJPY BEARISH Currently holds support at 80.61 ahead of 80.22 key support. Initial resistance defined at 82.00.
GBPUSD BEARISH Bearish pressure holds above 1.5964; a break here is required to confirm the bear trend and expose 1.5845. Near-term resistance lies at 1.6200.
USDCHF BEARISH Bearish trend is intact; break of 0.9200 has exposed 0.9000 ahead of 0.8951. Initial resistance is at 0.9369.
AUDUSD BEARISH Sharp sell-off yesterday held above 0.9804 key support ahead of 0.9739. Initial resistance defined at 1.0107.
USDCAD NEUTRAL Recovery through 0.9902/59 has exposed 1.0011/58 area. Support lies at 0.9735.
EURCHF BEARISH Focus is on 1.2727/06 support zone, while resistance is at 1.2945.
EURGBP BULLISH Momentum is positive; break of 0.8692 has exposed 0.8787 Fibonacci level ahead of 0.8818. Near-term support is at 0.8626.
EURJPY NEUTRAL Key support lies at 111.96, break of this would pave the way to 110.78 next. Resistance is at 115.02/29 area ahead of 116.00.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA
Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
16th of March 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
16 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
FX markets remained nervous during the Asia session although sentiment got a small boost after Japanese stocks rebounded. An FOMC statement which sounded a little more optimistic on the US economy also helped. USDJPY and USDCHF remain heavy however. EURUSD traded 1.3954-1.4013, USDJPY 80.69-81.17. The Nikkei rose +5.68%, erasing slightly more than half of yesterday's losses. A slightly more constructive FOMC statement noted the economic recovery is on a "firmer footing" and also acknowledged improvements in labor market conditions. The Fed seemed to view the rise in energy prices in the context of what it might mean for inflation rather than growth, a sign that they are beginning to worry more about the outlook for inflation. The FOMC did not acknowledge any risk to growth posed by recent events, even though it seems likely these events have created some additional uncertainty. And the FOMC left little doubt that they would complete the $600 bn program of Treasury purchases by June. Our analysts continue to expect the Fed will allow passive balance sheet contraction to occur in H2 2011
EUR
The euro fell 20 pips after Moody's downgraded Portugal by two-notches to A3, outlook negative. This brings the rating into line with S&P, but Fitch still rates Portugal two notches higher.
Even though the EU surprised with its decisions over the weekend, the press reported that smaller EU states want to change how the size of contributions to the bailout fund is calculated, which points to persistent uncertainty on the fate of the so-called comprehensive solution.
We expect Eurozone CPI for February will match the consensus estimate of +2.4% y/y.
The ZEW surveys in the Eurozone were slightly disappointing as a result of wider risk aversion in the markets. The current situation index in Germany came in below expectations at 85.40 and the economic sentiment index at 14.10.
JPY
Headlines throughout the session indicated ongoing uncertainty regarding the damaged nuclear reactors in Japan. USDJPY was range-bound but heavy, although yen crosses were a little firmer on the back of much stronger Japanese equities. Finance Minister Noda again reminded investors that he is watching markets closely.
A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA
Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
16 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
FX markets remained nervous during the Asia session although sentiment got a small boost after Japanese stocks rebounded. An FOMC statement which sounded a little more optimistic on the US economy also helped. USDJPY and USDCHF remain heavy however. EURUSD traded 1.3954-1.4013, USDJPY 80.69-81.17. The Nikkei rose +5.68%, erasing slightly more than half of yesterday's losses. A slightly more constructive FOMC statement noted the economic recovery is on a "firmer footing" and also acknowledged improvements in labor market conditions. The Fed seemed to view the rise in energy prices in the context of what it might mean for inflation rather than growth, a sign that they are beginning to worry more about the outlook for inflation. The FOMC did not acknowledge any risk to growth posed by recent events, even though it seems likely these events have created some additional uncertainty. And the FOMC left little doubt that they would complete the $600 bn program of Treasury purchases by June. Our analysts continue to expect the Fed will allow passive balance sheet contraction to occur in H2 2011
EUR
The euro fell 20 pips after Moody's downgraded Portugal by two-notches to A3, outlook negative. This brings the rating into line with S&P, but Fitch still rates Portugal two notches higher.
Even though the EU surprised with its decisions over the weekend, the press reported that smaller EU states want to change how the size of contributions to the bailout fund is calculated, which points to persistent uncertainty on the fate of the so-called comprehensive solution.
We expect Eurozone CPI for February will match the consensus estimate of +2.4% y/y.
The ZEW surveys in the Eurozone were slightly disappointing as a result of wider risk aversion in the markets. The current situation index in Germany came in below expectations at 85.40 and the economic sentiment index at 14.10.
JPY
Headlines throughout the session indicated ongoing uncertainty regarding the damaged nuclear reactors in Japan. USDJPY was range-bound but heavy, although yen crosses were a little firmer on the back of much stronger Japanese equities. Finance Minister Noda again reminded investors that he is watching markets closely.
A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA
Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
15th of March 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
15 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURJPY 111.96 key support.
EURUSD BULLISH Upside potential stalled in front of 1.4000/36 resistance area; a break here would expose 1.4086. Near-term support lies at 1.3752.
USDJPY BEARISH Initial resistance defined at 83.30; while support at 80.62 holds, move below this level would open way towards key low at 80.22.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.6200, while support lies at 1.5977/64 area.
USDCHF BEARISH Bearish pressure holds above 0.9236/00 support zone, move below this would expose 0.8951. Initial resistance is at 0.9369 ahead of 0.9421.
AUDUSD BEARISH Break below 0.9944 triggers the bear trend, next support lies at 0.9867. Initial resistance at 1.0107 intraday high.
USDCAD NEUTRAL Recovery through 0.9803 renders the model neutral with next resistance at 0.9902. Support defined at 0.9735 intraday low.
EURCHF NEUTRAL 1.3040 and 1.2827 mark the near-term directional triggers.
EURGBP BULLISH Outlook remains bullish; focus is on through 0.8692 ahead of 0.8777. Near-term support is at 0.8590.
EURJPY NEUTRAL While 111.96 marks the key support, resistance lies at 116.00.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA
Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
15 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURJPY 111.96 key support.
EURUSD BULLISH Upside potential stalled in front of 1.4000/36 resistance area; a break here would expose 1.4086. Near-term support lies at 1.3752.
USDJPY BEARISH Initial resistance defined at 83.30; while support at 80.62 holds, move below this level would open way towards key low at 80.22.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.6200, while support lies at 1.5977/64 area.
USDCHF BEARISH Bearish pressure holds above 0.9236/00 support zone, move below this would expose 0.8951. Initial resistance is at 0.9369 ahead of 0.9421.
AUDUSD BEARISH Break below 0.9944 triggers the bear trend, next support lies at 0.9867. Initial resistance at 1.0107 intraday high.
USDCAD NEUTRAL Recovery through 0.9803 renders the model neutral with next resistance at 0.9902. Support defined at 0.9735 intraday low.
EURCHF NEUTRAL 1.3040 and 1.2827 mark the near-term directional triggers.
EURGBP BULLISH Outlook remains bullish; focus is on through 0.8692 ahead of 0.8777. Near-term support is at 0.8590.
EURJPY NEUTRAL While 111.96 marks the key support, resistance lies at 116.00.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA
Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
15th of March 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
15 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Markets turned severely risk-averse during the Asia session amid reports that another explosion at a malfunctioning nuclear power facility may have ruptured the reactor's outer protective casing, allowing much larger quantities of radioactive material to escape. Prime Minister Kan declared that "substantial amounts of radiation are leaking in the area" and that "we are making utmost efforts to prevent further explosions or the release of radioactive materials". The Nikkei-225 went into freefall and dropped 14% at one point. EURUSD traded 1.3893-1.4003, USDJPY 81.23-82.01. Although USDJPY was relatively stable, AUDJPY and NZDJPY fell sharply. Stock indices and equity futures also weakened worldwide and UST yields were 14bp lower at one point. Overnight developments also affected central bank tightening expectations: at one point the OIS market was pricing in a 50% chance of a cut at the RBA's upcoming April meeting. This had nothing to do with the content of the RBA's March minutes which were also released overnight and were largely unremarkable. From here, we expect the performance of global stock markets today will play a key role in dictating short term FX direction.
EUR
ECB Governing Council member Bini-Smaghi continued to signal an imminent hike in interest rates. He said the ECB "needs to be ready to react immediately to prevent any increase in inflation expectations". He also reminded his audience that the ECB has "indicated to markets that they should prepare for a re-normalisation of interest rates."
The latest meeting of Eurozone finance ministers provided no further detail on proposed changes to Europe's financial rescue facilities. However, Eurogroup Chairman Juncker said he expects more detail will emerge next Monday on the design of the ESM (the proposed successor to the current ?440 bn EFSF).
Portugal's Prime Minister Socrates repeated his opposition to Portugal accepting external financial assistance. He said the government would meet its fiscal targets whatever the economic conditions.
Fitch said that decisions announced at the weekend materially enhance Europe's policy response to the sovereign debt crisis, yet do not resolve concerns over the solvency of some highly indebted Eurozone countries.
Ireland's new Finance Minister Noonan said there is no way Ireland will agree to raise its corporate tax rate in exchange for a lower interest rate on rescue loans advanced through the EFSF.
JPY
Moody's said it is "very unlikely" that the earthquake would affect Japan's rating. However, while noting that Japan can still fund fiscal deficits at exceptionally low cost, Moody's said the quake may have hastened the point at which investors lose confidence in the public finances.
Finance Minister Noda pledged to keep monitoring markets and to take appropriate steps at the appropriate time.
Noda also announced plans for a supplementary budget to help deal with the aftermath of the earthquake. He said the size of the budget would likely exceed that announced at the time of the 1995 Kobe earthquake, but that his first approach would be to deploy funds held in reserve as part of the budget for the current fiscal year.
GBP
Sterling was boosted when Fitch affirmed the UK's AAA rating, outlook stable, noting that the risks to the rating are reduced by a strong and credible fiscal consolidation program. Fitch also expressed concern that higher oil prices may result in faster interest rate hikes than are currently being assumed.
A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA
Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
15 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Markets turned severely risk-averse during the Asia session amid reports that another explosion at a malfunctioning nuclear power facility may have ruptured the reactor's outer protective casing, allowing much larger quantities of radioactive material to escape. Prime Minister Kan declared that "substantial amounts of radiation are leaking in the area" and that "we are making utmost efforts to prevent further explosions or the release of radioactive materials". The Nikkei-225 went into freefall and dropped 14% at one point. EURUSD traded 1.3893-1.4003, USDJPY 81.23-82.01. Although USDJPY was relatively stable, AUDJPY and NZDJPY fell sharply. Stock indices and equity futures also weakened worldwide and UST yields were 14bp lower at one point. Overnight developments also affected central bank tightening expectations: at one point the OIS market was pricing in a 50% chance of a cut at the RBA's upcoming April meeting. This had nothing to do with the content of the RBA's March minutes which were also released overnight and were largely unremarkable. From here, we expect the performance of global stock markets today will play a key role in dictating short term FX direction.
EUR
ECB Governing Council member Bini-Smaghi continued to signal an imminent hike in interest rates. He said the ECB "needs to be ready to react immediately to prevent any increase in inflation expectations". He also reminded his audience that the ECB has "indicated to markets that they should prepare for a re-normalisation of interest rates."
The latest meeting of Eurozone finance ministers provided no further detail on proposed changes to Europe's financial rescue facilities. However, Eurogroup Chairman Juncker said he expects more detail will emerge next Monday on the design of the ESM (the proposed successor to the current ?440 bn EFSF).
Portugal's Prime Minister Socrates repeated his opposition to Portugal accepting external financial assistance. He said the government would meet its fiscal targets whatever the economic conditions.
Fitch said that decisions announced at the weekend materially enhance Europe's policy response to the sovereign debt crisis, yet do not resolve concerns over the solvency of some highly indebted Eurozone countries.
Ireland's new Finance Minister Noonan said there is no way Ireland will agree to raise its corporate tax rate in exchange for a lower interest rate on rescue loans advanced through the EFSF.
JPY
Moody's said it is "very unlikely" that the earthquake would affect Japan's rating. However, while noting that Japan can still fund fiscal deficits at exceptionally low cost, Moody's said the quake may have hastened the point at which investors lose confidence in the public finances.
Finance Minister Noda pledged to keep monitoring markets and to take appropriate steps at the appropriate time.
Noda also announced plans for a supplementary budget to help deal with the aftermath of the earthquake. He said the size of the budget would likely exceed that announced at the time of the 1995 Kobe earthquake, but that his first approach would be to deploy funds held in reserve as part of the budget for the current fiscal year.
GBP
Sterling was boosted when Fitch affirmed the UK's AAA rating, outlook stable, noting that the risks to the rating are reduced by a strong and credible fiscal consolidation program. Fitch also expressed concern that higher oil prices may result in faster interest rate hikes than are currently being assumed.
A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA
Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Monday, March 14, 2011
14th of March 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
14 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDJPY 80.62 support.
EURUSD BULLISH Opens gap up; the pair targets 1.4000/36 resistance area ahead of 1.4086. Near-term support lies at 1.3752.
USDJPY BEARISH Sell-off during the day found support at 80.62 ahead of 80.22 key low. Resistance lies at 83.30.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Violation of 1.5977/64 would trigger a negative tone and expose 1.5892 Fibonacci level next. Initial resistance is defined at 1.6213.
USDCHF BEARISH Focus is maintained on 0.9236/00 support zone, move below this would expose 0.8951. Initial resistance is at 0.9369 ahead of 0.9421.
AUDUSD NEUTRAL 1.0202 and 0.9944 mark the near-term directional triggers with key resistance defined at 1.0256.
USDCAD BEARISH Move below 0.9668 would expose 0.9600. Near-term resistance lies at 0.9803.
EURCHF BULLISH A push above 1.3040 would expose 1.3086, while initial support is at 1.2827.
EURGBP BULLISH Following the recovery through 0.8654/72 resistance area, the pair pressures 0.8691 ahead of 0.8777. Near-term support is at 0.8534.
EURJPY BULLISH As long as support at 111.96 holds, focus is on upside with initial resistance at 115.29 ahead of 116.00.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA
Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
14 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDJPY 80.62 support.
EURUSD BULLISH Opens gap up; the pair targets 1.4000/36 resistance area ahead of 1.4086. Near-term support lies at 1.3752.
USDJPY BEARISH Sell-off during the day found support at 80.62 ahead of 80.22 key low. Resistance lies at 83.30.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Violation of 1.5977/64 would trigger a negative tone and expose 1.5892 Fibonacci level next. Initial resistance is defined at 1.6213.
USDCHF BEARISH Focus is maintained on 0.9236/00 support zone, move below this would expose 0.8951. Initial resistance is at 0.9369 ahead of 0.9421.
AUDUSD NEUTRAL 1.0202 and 0.9944 mark the near-term directional triggers with key resistance defined at 1.0256.
USDCAD BEARISH Move below 0.9668 would expose 0.9600. Near-term resistance lies at 0.9803.
EURCHF BULLISH A push above 1.3040 would expose 1.3086, while initial support is at 1.2827.
EURGBP BULLISH Following the recovery through 0.8654/72 resistance area, the pair pressures 0.8691 ahead of 0.8777. Near-term support is at 0.8534.
EURJPY BULLISH As long as support at 111.96 holds, focus is on upside with initial resistance at 115.29 ahead of 116.00.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA
Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
14th of March 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
14 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
USDJPY fell sharply to a low of 80.60 during the Asia session but soon reversed course after the BoJ announced Y12 trn worth of same-day liquidity operations. There was no FX reaction to the BoJ's later decision to raise the ceiling on its asset purchase facility to Y10 trn from Y5 trn previously. EURUSD traded 1.3917-1.3985, USDJPY 80.60-82.45. The Nikkei-225 came under immediate selling pressure from the open, and is down -6.18% at the time of writing. Despite events in Japan, the S&P500 still managed to rise +0.71% on Friday, and the VIX closed lower on the day, finishing just above 20.
US data was mixed. February retail sales expanded by +1.0%, in line with consensus estimates. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index unexpectedly fell 9.3 points to 68.2 in early March. Interestingly, our US economics team observe that a sharp rise in inflation expectations drove much of the decline: long-term inflation expectations jumped to 3.2% from 2.9%, and short-term inflation expectations rose substantially to 4.6% from 3.4%. Although this is only a single month's data, the uptick in expectations may embolden some of the more hawkish FOMC members to speak against another round of asset purchases.
EUR
Eurozone leaders made a number of euro-positive announcements over the weekend. Leaders pledged to increase the effective lending capacity of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) to ?440 bn, and agreed to lower the interest rate charged on Greece's financial rescue package by 1%. The maturity of loans to Greece was also extended to 7.5 years. These outcomes had been expected to emerge from the upcoming EU Leaders summit on March 24-25, but have now come sooner than many investors anticipated.
Most significantly, in a surprising turn of events, EU leaders agreed to authorise the EFSF to buy sovereign bonds in the primary market. This in particular is likely to prove to be a significant euro positive on Monday. Germany's Chancellor Merkel said "I hope that this will also be a good message to the world in terms of the euro as a major currency."
JPY
News headlines continue to describe the aftermath of Japan's tragic earthquake and tsunami. Amid the rescue operation, efforts are also continuing to deal with malfunctioning nuclear power plants. Prime Minister Kan declared that this is the greatest national crisis since 1945.
The BoJ made no change to the policy rate which remains in a range between 0 and 0.1%. The maximum size of the asset purchase facility was doubled to JPY10 trn.
S&P said the earthquake has no immediate impact on Japan's sovereign rating. Moody's said it is "very unlikely" that the earthquake would affect Japan's rating.
Both Kan and Economy Minister Yosano said the government would fight decisively against speculative moves. Yosano, quoting Finance Minister Noda, said that FX and interest rate movements would be closely watched. Yosano added that the economic impact of the disaster is likely to come to more than JPY20 trn. On Friday, Finance Minister Noda said the government's fiscal position should not be an obstacle to responding to the crisis, and both he and Kan have called for a supplementary budget. Yosano said the government would cooperate more than usual with the BoJ and he predicted that the BoJ would take both traditional and non-traditional monetary policy steps as needed.
CAD
USDCAD climbed about 15 pips after the February employment count rose by fewer than expected. Only +15.1K new jobs were added against consensus expectations of +25.0K. The unemployment rate also steadied at 7.8% despite market expectations that it would fall to 7.7%.
A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA
Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
14 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
USDJPY fell sharply to a low of 80.60 during the Asia session but soon reversed course after the BoJ announced Y12 trn worth of same-day liquidity operations. There was no FX reaction to the BoJ's later decision to raise the ceiling on its asset purchase facility to Y10 trn from Y5 trn previously. EURUSD traded 1.3917-1.3985, USDJPY 80.60-82.45. The Nikkei-225 came under immediate selling pressure from the open, and is down -6.18% at the time of writing. Despite events in Japan, the S&P500 still managed to rise +0.71% on Friday, and the VIX closed lower on the day, finishing just above 20.
US data was mixed. February retail sales expanded by +1.0%, in line with consensus estimates. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index unexpectedly fell 9.3 points to 68.2 in early March. Interestingly, our US economics team observe that a sharp rise in inflation expectations drove much of the decline: long-term inflation expectations jumped to 3.2% from 2.9%, and short-term inflation expectations rose substantially to 4.6% from 3.4%. Although this is only a single month's data, the uptick in expectations may embolden some of the more hawkish FOMC members to speak against another round of asset purchases.
EUR
Eurozone leaders made a number of euro-positive announcements over the weekend. Leaders pledged to increase the effective lending capacity of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) to ?440 bn, and agreed to lower the interest rate charged on Greece's financial rescue package by 1%. The maturity of loans to Greece was also extended to 7.5 years. These outcomes had been expected to emerge from the upcoming EU Leaders summit on March 24-25, but have now come sooner than many investors anticipated.
Most significantly, in a surprising turn of events, EU leaders agreed to authorise the EFSF to buy sovereign bonds in the primary market. This in particular is likely to prove to be a significant euro positive on Monday. Germany's Chancellor Merkel said "I hope that this will also be a good message to the world in terms of the euro as a major currency."
JPY
News headlines continue to describe the aftermath of Japan's tragic earthquake and tsunami. Amid the rescue operation, efforts are also continuing to deal with malfunctioning nuclear power plants. Prime Minister Kan declared that this is the greatest national crisis since 1945.
The BoJ made no change to the policy rate which remains in a range between 0 and 0.1%. The maximum size of the asset purchase facility was doubled to JPY10 trn.
S&P said the earthquake has no immediate impact on Japan's sovereign rating. Moody's said it is "very unlikely" that the earthquake would affect Japan's rating.
Both Kan and Economy Minister Yosano said the government would fight decisively against speculative moves. Yosano, quoting Finance Minister Noda, said that FX and interest rate movements would be closely watched. Yosano added that the economic impact of the disaster is likely to come to more than JPY20 trn. On Friday, Finance Minister Noda said the government's fiscal position should not be an obstacle to responding to the crisis, and both he and Kan have called for a supplementary budget. Yosano said the government would cooperate more than usual with the BoJ and he predicted that the BoJ would take both traditional and non-traditional monetary policy steps as needed.
CAD
USDCAD climbed about 15 pips after the February employment count rose by fewer than expected. Only +15.1K new jobs were added against consensus expectations of +25.0K. The unemployment rate also steadied at 7.8% despite market expectations that it would fall to 7.7%.
A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA
Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Friday, March 11, 2011
11th of March 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
11 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURJPY constructive above 114.19.
EURUSD BULLISH While the pair holds above 1.3744/32, expect recovery towards 1.3925 and 1.4036 next.
USDJPY BULLISH Break of 83.07 has exposed resistance at 83.54. Near-term support defined at 82.21.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Move below 1.6031 and 1.5964 thereafter would trigger negative tone. Initial resistance is defined at 1.6213.
USDCHF BEARISH Focus is on 0.9236/00 support zone, move below this would expose 0.8951. Initial resistance is at 0.9392 ahead of 0.9421.
AUDUSD BEARISH Look for a break below 0.9944 to trigger bear trend. Near-term resistance is at 1.0118.
USDCAD BEARISH Focus is on initial support 0.9668; break of this would expose 0.9600. Resistance is defined at 0.9776 ahead of 0.9800.
EURCHF BEARISH The cross targets 1.2788 with scope for 1.2706 next. On the upside, resistance holds at 1.3040.
EURGBP BULLISH Break of 0.8636 is required to confirm the uptrend and pave the way towards 0.8654/72 area. Near-term support is at 0.8534.
EURJPY BULLISH Remains constructive above 114.19, resistance is at 116.00/65 area.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA
Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
11 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURJPY constructive above 114.19.
EURUSD BULLISH While the pair holds above 1.3744/32, expect recovery towards 1.3925 and 1.4036 next.
USDJPY BULLISH Break of 83.07 has exposed resistance at 83.54. Near-term support defined at 82.21.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Move below 1.6031 and 1.5964 thereafter would trigger negative tone. Initial resistance is defined at 1.6213.
USDCHF BEARISH Focus is on 0.9236/00 support zone, move below this would expose 0.8951. Initial resistance is at 0.9392 ahead of 0.9421.
AUDUSD BEARISH Look for a break below 0.9944 to trigger bear trend. Near-term resistance is at 1.0118.
USDCAD BEARISH Focus is on initial support 0.9668; break of this would expose 0.9600. Resistance is defined at 0.9776 ahead of 0.9800.
EURCHF BEARISH The cross targets 1.2788 with scope for 1.2706 next. On the upside, resistance holds at 1.3040.
EURGBP BULLISH Break of 0.8636 is required to confirm the uptrend and pave the way towards 0.8654/72 area. Near-term support is at 0.8534.
EURJPY BULLISH Remains constructive above 114.19, resistance is at 116.00/65 area.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA
Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
11th of March 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
11 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The yen spiked half a big figure lower after a strong earthquake hit Japan, and risk currencies in genera fell. EURUSD traded 1.3775-1.3832, USDJPY 82.78-83.30. One Thursday the S& P 500 finished 1.9% weaker amid a rise in risk aversion, and Treasury yields moved lower across the curve. Initial jobless claims surprised to the upside at 397k. The rise appears to reflect technical distortions rather than genuine deterioration and, despite the latest data, claims continue to show a downtrend since January. Also, the trade deficit dropped more than expected to $46.3bn.
Retail sales and the University of Michigan confidence index are due Friday. Further improvement here would keep us constructive on our 3m view of increasing dollar strength.
EUR
An EU summit is scheduled for today and expectations for any definite actions to emerge from it are low. But that may not derail the euro in the near-term as officials still have plenty of meetings to fall back on and rising sovereign bond yields could give the impression that officials will make some difficult decisions amid a worsening situation. Any resolution on the pressing issues will likely have to wait for the Eurogroup/Ecofin meetings on March 14-15 and then the next EU summit on March 24-25. The European Commission website indicates a press conference could come around 2000GMT.
Moody's downgraded Spain by one notch to AA2 with a negative outlook. The ratings agency cited concerns over the eventual cost of bank restructuring and structural issue over broader government finances. The move brings Moody's into line with S&P, but below Fitch. The Bank of Spain said 12 Spanish lenders need to raise EUR 15.2bn to meet new minimum capital levels otherwise they could face partial nationalization. The lenders have until September to meet these new core capital requirements of either 8% or 10%, depending if the lender is listed or not.
GBP
The BoE kept its policy rate and asset purchase target unchanged, as expected. Sterling weakened immediately after the decision. We now turn our attention to the MPC minutes due on March 23. Today, BoE Governor King is due to speak on the stability of the international monetary and financial system..
CAD
The trade surplus sharply narrowed from a revised down C$1.7bn to C$0.1bn, and added to downward pressure on the Canadian dollar during the session's decidedly risk-off tone.
For the labour data, we expect a more modest net increase of +5k for employment vs. consensus +25k and we are looking for an unchanged unemployment rate of 7.8% vs. consensus of a dip to 7.7%. While disappointing job data could weaken the CAD, it would not deter us from continuing to look at Canadian dollar relative value longs versus AUD or NZD.
A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA
Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
11 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The yen spiked half a big figure lower after a strong earthquake hit Japan, and risk currencies in genera fell. EURUSD traded 1.3775-1.3832, USDJPY 82.78-83.30. One Thursday the S& P 500 finished 1.9% weaker amid a rise in risk aversion, and Treasury yields moved lower across the curve. Initial jobless claims surprised to the upside at 397k. The rise appears to reflect technical distortions rather than genuine deterioration and, despite the latest data, claims continue to show a downtrend since January. Also, the trade deficit dropped more than expected to $46.3bn.
Retail sales and the University of Michigan confidence index are due Friday. Further improvement here would keep us constructive on our 3m view of increasing dollar strength.
EUR
An EU summit is scheduled for today and expectations for any definite actions to emerge from it are low. But that may not derail the euro in the near-term as officials still have plenty of meetings to fall back on and rising sovereign bond yields could give the impression that officials will make some difficult decisions amid a worsening situation. Any resolution on the pressing issues will likely have to wait for the Eurogroup/Ecofin meetings on March 14-15 and then the next EU summit on March 24-25. The European Commission website indicates a press conference could come around 2000GMT.
Moody's downgraded Spain by one notch to AA2 with a negative outlook. The ratings agency cited concerns over the eventual cost of bank restructuring and structural issue over broader government finances. The move brings Moody's into line with S&P, but below Fitch. The Bank of Spain said 12 Spanish lenders need to raise EUR 15.2bn to meet new minimum capital levels otherwise they could face partial nationalization. The lenders have until September to meet these new core capital requirements of either 8% or 10%, depending if the lender is listed or not.
GBP
The BoE kept its policy rate and asset purchase target unchanged, as expected. Sterling weakened immediately after the decision. We now turn our attention to the MPC minutes due on March 23. Today, BoE Governor King is due to speak on the stability of the international monetary and financial system..
CAD
The trade surplus sharply narrowed from a revised down C$1.7bn to C$0.1bn, and added to downward pressure on the Canadian dollar during the session's decidedly risk-off tone.
For the labour data, we expect a more modest net increase of +5k for employment vs. consensus +25k and we are looking for an unchanged unemployment rate of 7.8% vs. consensus of a dip to 7.7%. While disappointing job data could weaken the CAD, it would not deter us from continuing to look at Canadian dollar relative value longs versus AUD or NZD.
A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA
Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Thursday, March 10, 2011
10th of March 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
10 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURJPY 114.19 support.
EURUSD BULLISH Rise through 1.3989 would open up 1.4036/86 area next. Support is defined at 1.3833.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Near-term resistance at 83.07, while support is at 82.21.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Recovery through 1.6344 required for resumption of uptrend. On the downside, pullback through 1.6126 would expose 1.6072.
USDCHF BEARISH As long as resistance at 0.9392 holds, expect losses towards 0.9262/00 zone ahead of 0.8951 next.
AUDUSD NEUTRAL 1.0202 and 0.9944 mark the near-term directional triggers.
USDCAD BEARISH Currently holds support at 0.9668 ahead of 0.9600. Resistance is defined at 0.9776.
EURCHF BULLISH Support at 1.2788 holds, initial resistance at 1.3040 ahead of 1.3086.
EURGBP BULLISH Move above 0.8636 would open up 0.8654/72 area. Near-term support is at 0.8479.
EURJPY BULLISH As long as the cross maintains above 114.19, expect gains to target 116.00/65 and 118.07.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA
Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
10 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURJPY 114.19 support.
EURUSD BULLISH Rise through 1.3989 would open up 1.4036/86 area next. Support is defined at 1.3833.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Near-term resistance at 83.07, while support is at 82.21.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Recovery through 1.6344 required for resumption of uptrend. On the downside, pullback through 1.6126 would expose 1.6072.
USDCHF BEARISH As long as resistance at 0.9392 holds, expect losses towards 0.9262/00 zone ahead of 0.8951 next.
AUDUSD NEUTRAL 1.0202 and 0.9944 mark the near-term directional triggers.
USDCAD BEARISH Currently holds support at 0.9668 ahead of 0.9600. Resistance is defined at 0.9776.
EURCHF BULLISH Support at 1.2788 holds, initial resistance at 1.3040 ahead of 1.3086.
EURGBP BULLISH Move above 0.8636 would open up 0.8654/72 area. Near-term support is at 0.8479.
EURJPY BULLISH As long as the cross maintains above 114.19, expect gains to target 116.00/65 and 118.07.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA
Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
10th of March 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
10 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar made significant gains during the Asia session after February trade data out of China disappointed consensus expectations. Although Lunar New Year celebrations are likely the cause of the unexpected deficit, investors were in no mood to take chances, and the US dollar strengthened against all its G10 peers. Earlier the NZD experienced some weakness of its own when the RBNZ cut the policy rate by 50bp (only a 25bp cut had been expected by consensus). This triggered an immediate 50-pip selloff in NZDUSD, but it soon partially retraced. EURUSD traded 1.3865-1.3925, and USDJPY traded 82.58-82.88. Asian equities are also weaker, after the S&P 500 finished down -0.14%. Gold and brent crude were both tightly range-bound. Our analysts expect initial jobless claims to tick slightly higher to 370k, while still leaving the broader downtrend intact.
EUR
Newswires reported that a French government source said EU leaders will not discuss Greek debt restructuring at the upcoming summit on Friday.
Sovereign bond yields remain elevated, and while the ECB's apparent determination to push towards policy normalization has supported the euro over the past week, sovereign risk concerns are clearly coming back to the forefront, capping euro upside.
CHF
The CPI print was stronger than consensus at 0.5% y/y. While the Swiss franc strengthened on the data, we doubt this stronger inflation print will be enough to shake the SNB out of its current stance. Relative central bank tightening expectations continue to favour EURCHF upside, supporting our long EURCHF trade recommendation.
AUD
The AUD got a small boost from a mixed February employment report which on balance slightly beat expectations. Although employment fell by -10.1k (cons. +20k), full-time jobs expanded by 47.6k. The unemployment rate was steady and in line with consensus at 5.0%.
NZD
The RBNZ cut the OCR by 50bp, taking the policy rate back to its crisis low of 2.5%. Governor Bollard noted that the recent earthquake has caused 'immense disruption to business activity', and that economic activity nationwide would be negatively impacted. The RBNZ expects GDP growth will be 'quite weak' in H1, but this will eventually give way to a "very large reconstruction program by 2012". As far as policy guidance is concerned, Bollard added that the "current monetary policy accommodation" will need to be removed once the rebuilding phase materializes, although he was clear that "future monetary policy adjustments" will be guided by incoming data.
A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA
Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
10 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar made significant gains during the Asia session after February trade data out of China disappointed consensus expectations. Although Lunar New Year celebrations are likely the cause of the unexpected deficit, investors were in no mood to take chances, and the US dollar strengthened against all its G10 peers. Earlier the NZD experienced some weakness of its own when the RBNZ cut the policy rate by 50bp (only a 25bp cut had been expected by consensus). This triggered an immediate 50-pip selloff in NZDUSD, but it soon partially retraced. EURUSD traded 1.3865-1.3925, and USDJPY traded 82.58-82.88. Asian equities are also weaker, after the S&P 500 finished down -0.14%. Gold and brent crude were both tightly range-bound. Our analysts expect initial jobless claims to tick slightly higher to 370k, while still leaving the broader downtrend intact.
EUR
Newswires reported that a French government source said EU leaders will not discuss Greek debt restructuring at the upcoming summit on Friday.
Sovereign bond yields remain elevated, and while the ECB's apparent determination to push towards policy normalization has supported the euro over the past week, sovereign risk concerns are clearly coming back to the forefront, capping euro upside.
CHF
The CPI print was stronger than consensus at 0.5% y/y. While the Swiss franc strengthened on the data, we doubt this stronger inflation print will be enough to shake the SNB out of its current stance. Relative central bank tightening expectations continue to favour EURCHF upside, supporting our long EURCHF trade recommendation.
AUD
The AUD got a small boost from a mixed February employment report which on balance slightly beat expectations. Although employment fell by -10.1k (cons. +20k), full-time jobs expanded by 47.6k. The unemployment rate was steady and in line with consensus at 5.0%.
NZD
The RBNZ cut the OCR by 50bp, taking the policy rate back to its crisis low of 2.5%. Governor Bollard noted that the recent earthquake has caused 'immense disruption to business activity', and that economic activity nationwide would be negatively impacted. The RBNZ expects GDP growth will be 'quite weak' in H1, but this will eventually give way to a "very large reconstruction program by 2012". As far as policy guidance is concerned, Bollard added that the "current monetary policy accommodation" will need to be removed once the rebuilding phase materializes, although he was clear that "future monetary policy adjustments" will be guided by incoming data.
A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA
Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Wednesday, March 09, 2011
9th of March 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
9 March 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
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Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
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TECHNICAL DATA
EURGBP 0.8654/72 resistance.
EURUSD BULLISH Focus is on 1.3989 yesterday's high, move above this would open up 1.4036/86 area next. Support is defined at 1.3833.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Recovery from 81.57 signals potential for gains towards 83.07/41 zone. Short-term support defined at 81.95.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Pull back from 1.6344 has turned the model to neutral; break of this level is required for resumption of uptrend. Near-term support is at 1.6072.
USDCHF BEARISH Support at 0.9200 holds, move below this would open 0.8951 next. Near-term resistance at 0.9392.
AUDUSD NEUTRAL Initial resistance is at 1.0202, break of this would expose key resistance 1.0256. Near-term support is at 1.0002.
USDCAD BEARISH Bearish outlook is intact; support zone is at 0.9700/0.9684. Resistance is defined at 0.9776.
EURCHF BULLISH Focus is on 1.3138, break of this level would expose 1.3205. Support at 1.2788 holds.
EURGBP BULLISH Outlook remains bullish with focus on 0.8654/72 resistance area. Near-term support is at 0.8566.
EURJPY BULLISH While support at 114.19 holds, the cross targets 116.00/65 resistance zone.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA
Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
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