DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
31 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The euro got a strong boost from a Wall Street Journal article which claimed that Germany might be willing to participate in another round of funding for Greece, even if a voluntary 'soft' restructuring of Greek debt does not first take place. No sources were cited, however the currency reaction was logical given that, if this is what ultimately happens, the market will not have to cope with the potential trauma of a restructuring event - at least not in the near term. EURUSD traded 1.4272-1.4406, USDJPY 80.72-81.38. Elsewhere, strong New Zealand data propelled NZD to a new high, while the AUD was hurt after data pointed to the likelihood of a very weak Q1 GDP print tomorrow. US house price data, the Chicago PMI are due. Our US economists think consumer confidence will come in well ahead of consensus expectations.
EUR
Germany's Finance Minister Schaeuble said it can no longer be assumed that Greece will be able to refinance a portion of its debt in Q2 2012, which is why further measures are currently being discussed.
The Greek press reported that the troika have delayed their departure from Greece until Saturday, after which they are due to report back on their findings. According to the same reports, tough negotiations with Greek government officials are due to conclude by Wednesday night.
France's Finance Minister Lagarde, and candidate to succeed Strauss-Kahn at the IMF, said it is important that currencies do not exhibit excessive volatility and that the IMF needs to increase coordination to prevent this.
Fitch downgraded Cyprus by three notches to A- from AA-.
JPY
Moody's put Japan's AA2 rating on review for a possible downgrade. The agency thinks a JGB funding crisis is unlikely in the near to medium term, but sees a risk that at some point in the future a tipping point could be reached where the market would put a risk premium on Japanese government debt. USDJPY jumped 50 pips on the news.
CAD
Our Canadian economist expects the Bank of Canada to keep the base rate unchanged at 1% at today's policy meeting, given that core CPI numbers remain comfortably inside the BoC's target range. This is inline with consensus expectations.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
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Tuesday, May 31, 2011
31st of May 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
31 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD NEUTRAL Move above 1.4346 has exposed resistance at 1.4442, while support at 1.4257 holds.
USDJPY BEARISH Support is at 80.64, break below this would expose 80.34. Initial resistance is at 82.00.
GBPUSD BULLISH Rise through 1.6517 has exposed resistance at 1.6584 ahead of 1.6661. Near-term support is at 1.6450.
USDCHF BEARISH Initial support is at 0.8465; break of this level would pave the way for further downside towards 0.8400. Resistance lies at 0.8663.
AUDUSD BULLISH Break above 1.0794 is required to confirm the bull trend, while support lies at 1.0609.
USDCAD BULLISH Pull back through 0.9724 has exposed support at 0.9675. Initial resistance is at 0.9787 ahead of 0.9816.
EURCHF BEARISH Clearance of 1.2099 would expose next support at 1.2000. Resistance is at 1.2360.
EURGBP BEARISH Decline through initial support at 0.8657 would open 0.8611. Resistance lies at 0.8752.
EURJPY NEUTRAL Break of 116.38 has turned the model to neutral and exposed resistance at 117.24. Support is at 115.21.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
31 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD NEUTRAL Move above 1.4346 has exposed resistance at 1.4442, while support at 1.4257 holds.
USDJPY BEARISH Support is at 80.64, break below this would expose 80.34. Initial resistance is at 82.00.
GBPUSD BULLISH Rise through 1.6517 has exposed resistance at 1.6584 ahead of 1.6661. Near-term support is at 1.6450.
USDCHF BEARISH Initial support is at 0.8465; break of this level would pave the way for further downside towards 0.8400. Resistance lies at 0.8663.
AUDUSD BULLISH Break above 1.0794 is required to confirm the bull trend, while support lies at 1.0609.
USDCAD BULLISH Pull back through 0.9724 has exposed support at 0.9675. Initial resistance is at 0.9787 ahead of 0.9816.
EURCHF BEARISH Clearance of 1.2099 would expose next support at 1.2000. Resistance is at 1.2360.
EURGBP BEARISH Decline through initial support at 0.8657 would open 0.8611. Resistance lies at 0.8752.
EURJPY NEUTRAL Break of 116.38 has turned the model to neutral and exposed resistance at 117.24. Support is at 115.21.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Monday, May 30, 2011
30th of May 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
30 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD NEUTRAL 1.4346 and 1.4125 mark the near-term directional triggers.
USDJPY BEARISH Momentum is negative; break of 80.64 would signal further losses towards 80.31 and 80.00. Initial resistance is at 81.42.
GBPUSD BULLISH Stalled in front of 1.6517, break of this level would confirm the bull trend and expose 1.6584. Support lies at 1.6379.
USDCHF BEARISH Bearish trend is intact; move below 0.8500 has exposed support at 0.8465. Resistance lies at 0.8663.
AUDUSD NEUTRAL Initial support is at 1.0609, while upside trigger is at 1.0794.
USDCAD BULLISH Resistance is at 0.9816, break above this level would open way for a climb to 0.9849. Near-term support lies at 0.9724.
EURCHF BEARISH The cross prints fresh lows; move below initial support at 1.2099 would expose 1.2000. Resistance is at 1.2256.
EURGBP BEARISH Focus is on initial support at 0.8611, break below this level would pave the way towards 0.8590. Near-term resistance is at 0.8717.
EURJPY BEARISH Support is at 114.47, scope for further losses towards 113.88. Resistance lies at 116.38.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
30 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD NEUTRAL 1.4346 and 1.4125 mark the near-term directional triggers.
USDJPY BEARISH Momentum is negative; break of 80.64 would signal further losses towards 80.31 and 80.00. Initial resistance is at 81.42.
GBPUSD BULLISH Stalled in front of 1.6517, break of this level would confirm the bull trend and expose 1.6584. Support lies at 1.6379.
USDCHF BEARISH Bearish trend is intact; move below 0.8500 has exposed support at 0.8465. Resistance lies at 0.8663.
AUDUSD NEUTRAL Initial support is at 1.0609, while upside trigger is at 1.0794.
USDCAD BULLISH Resistance is at 0.9816, break above this level would open way for a climb to 0.9849. Near-term support lies at 0.9724.
EURCHF BEARISH The cross prints fresh lows; move below initial support at 1.2099 would expose 1.2000. Resistance is at 1.2256.
EURGBP BEARISH Focus is on initial support at 0.8611, break below this level would pave the way towards 0.8590. Near-term resistance is at 0.8717.
EURJPY BEARISH Support is at 114.47, scope for further losses towards 113.88. Resistance lies at 116.38.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
30th of May 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
30 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar had a mixed session. It managed to claw back some of Friday's losses against the euro, assisted by euro-negative press commentary. Nevertheless, it was not all one-way dollar buying - NZDUSD set a post-floatation 26-year high after better than expected New Zealand trade data. EURUSD traded 1.4262-1.4334, USDJPY 80.72-81.02. On Friday, US data was mostly in line with consensus, although the University of Michigan consumer sentiment was stronger, rising to 74.3 in May (cons 72.4, prev. 72.4). Our analysts team note that both the short-term and long-term inflation components of the survey nudged lower. The G8 summit concluded with some interesting headlines on FX. French President Sarkozy said that the euro's strength is "sometimes a problem". Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi revealed that US President Obama wants a strong euro. Berlusconi added that "it's right that our currency is strong, but not so strong as to impede our exports to the US". Both the UK and the US are on holiday today.
EUR
An article in Saturday's Der Spiegel claimed that the next quarterly EU/IMF/ECB report on Greece's progress will conclude that all agreed fiscal targets have been missed. The IMF later described the article as "untrue" pointing out that discussions with Greek authorities are continuing and "are making good progress and are expected to conclude soon". A spokesperson for the Greek government also refuted the article saying discussions "will be completed in the next few days", adding "we have every reason to believe the report will be positive for the country".
Discussions between Greek Prime Minister Papandreou and opposition parties broke up without reaching a political consensus on the question of further fiscal reforms. Juncker, Chairman of the Eurogroup of Finance Ministers, said two weeks ago that achieving political consensus in Greece on the way forward was a necessary condition for a continuation of European financial support.
ECB Executive board member Bini-Smaghi said that neither a restructuring nor a reprofiling of Greek debt could be done in an orderly way.
The governor of the Greek central bank, Provopoulos, said he remained "firmly against" debt restructuring as it could be "accompanied by contagion" and "would damage the credibility of the Greek sovereign and the euro itself." Provopoulos who also sits on the ECB's Governing Council described speculation about Greece leaving the Eurozone as "ridiculous".
Sweden's Finance Minister Borg said he opposed the idea of "reprofiling" Greek debt until a "very substantial surplus" is first achieved. On Saturday, Dutch Finance Minister De Jager said that a committee within the Eurogroup of Eurozone Finance Ministers has been tasked to research how a "soft" Greek debt reprofiling might be achieved and whether a credit event could be avoided in this case.
Ireland's Transport Minister Varadkar became the first minister to raise the possibility that Ireland may not be able to return to bond markets in 2012, and that consequently an extension to the existing EU/IMF rescue program may be needed.
ECB Executive board member Stark said that Greece could realise up to ?300 bn from the privatisation of state assets. We note that this figure is equivalent to approximately 90% of Greece's marketable debt outstanding.
German CPI came in perfectly in line with consensus at +2.3% y/y (prev. +2.4%). Our European economics team still expects the next ECB hike to come in July.
JPY
Over the weekend BoJ Governor Shirakawa acknowledged that Japan's deteriorating fiscal health is "serious". Referring to the BoJ's active JGB-buying program, he said that the bank's JGB holdings will approach a defined ceiling if bond purchases continue at the current pace. This is the first indication from Shirakawa that the BoJ's existing program may not be sustainable in the long term. It may also partly explain his reluctance to accelerate the pace of monthly bond purchases, as doing so would shorten the time taken to reach the ceiling. We note however that this ceiling is self-imposed by the BoJ, and could in theory be raised.
On Friday, Fitch lowered the outlook on Japan's rating to negative from stable, citing concerns over the country's worsening fiscal position. Reacting to the news, Japan's Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary said Japan will continue to work on social security and fiscal reforms.
NZD
The NZD was boosted by an exceptionally strong trade surplus which came in at NZ$1.113 bn (cons. NZ$0.6bn), a new record high for a data series that goes back to 1951.
Shortly after NZDUSD set a record post-floatation high, New Zealand's Prime Minister Key said that the government has concerns about the very high exchange rate, but that there have not been any discussions with the RBNZ about how to handle it. Key added however, that NZDUSD strength is largely the result of USD weakness, which suggests little immediate intervention risk.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
30 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar had a mixed session. It managed to claw back some of Friday's losses against the euro, assisted by euro-negative press commentary. Nevertheless, it was not all one-way dollar buying - NZDUSD set a post-floatation 26-year high after better than expected New Zealand trade data. EURUSD traded 1.4262-1.4334, USDJPY 80.72-81.02. On Friday, US data was mostly in line with consensus, although the University of Michigan consumer sentiment was stronger, rising to 74.3 in May (cons 72.4, prev. 72.4). Our analysts team note that both the short-term and long-term inflation components of the survey nudged lower. The G8 summit concluded with some interesting headlines on FX. French President Sarkozy said that the euro's strength is "sometimes a problem". Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi revealed that US President Obama wants a strong euro. Berlusconi added that "it's right that our currency is strong, but not so strong as to impede our exports to the US". Both the UK and the US are on holiday today.
EUR
An article in Saturday's Der Spiegel claimed that the next quarterly EU/IMF/ECB report on Greece's progress will conclude that all agreed fiscal targets have been missed. The IMF later described the article as "untrue" pointing out that discussions with Greek authorities are continuing and "are making good progress and are expected to conclude soon". A spokesperson for the Greek government also refuted the article saying discussions "will be completed in the next few days", adding "we have every reason to believe the report will be positive for the country".
Discussions between Greek Prime Minister Papandreou and opposition parties broke up without reaching a political consensus on the question of further fiscal reforms. Juncker, Chairman of the Eurogroup of Finance Ministers, said two weeks ago that achieving political consensus in Greece on the way forward was a necessary condition for a continuation of European financial support.
ECB Executive board member Bini-Smaghi said that neither a restructuring nor a reprofiling of Greek debt could be done in an orderly way.
The governor of the Greek central bank, Provopoulos, said he remained "firmly against" debt restructuring as it could be "accompanied by contagion" and "would damage the credibility of the Greek sovereign and the euro itself." Provopoulos who also sits on the ECB's Governing Council described speculation about Greece leaving the Eurozone as "ridiculous".
Sweden's Finance Minister Borg said he opposed the idea of "reprofiling" Greek debt until a "very substantial surplus" is first achieved. On Saturday, Dutch Finance Minister De Jager said that a committee within the Eurogroup of Eurozone Finance Ministers has been tasked to research how a "soft" Greek debt reprofiling might be achieved and whether a credit event could be avoided in this case.
Ireland's Transport Minister Varadkar became the first minister to raise the possibility that Ireland may not be able to return to bond markets in 2012, and that consequently an extension to the existing EU/IMF rescue program may be needed.
ECB Executive board member Stark said that Greece could realise up to ?300 bn from the privatisation of state assets. We note that this figure is equivalent to approximately 90% of Greece's marketable debt outstanding.
German CPI came in perfectly in line with consensus at +2.3% y/y (prev. +2.4%). Our European economics team still expects the next ECB hike to come in July.
JPY
Over the weekend BoJ Governor Shirakawa acknowledged that Japan's deteriorating fiscal health is "serious". Referring to the BoJ's active JGB-buying program, he said that the bank's JGB holdings will approach a defined ceiling if bond purchases continue at the current pace. This is the first indication from Shirakawa that the BoJ's existing program may not be sustainable in the long term. It may also partly explain his reluctance to accelerate the pace of monthly bond purchases, as doing so would shorten the time taken to reach the ceiling. We note however that this ceiling is self-imposed by the BoJ, and could in theory be raised.
On Friday, Fitch lowered the outlook on Japan's rating to negative from stable, citing concerns over the country's worsening fiscal position. Reacting to the news, Japan's Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary said Japan will continue to work on social security and fiscal reforms.
NZD
The NZD was boosted by an exceptionally strong trade surplus which came in at NZ$1.113 bn (cons. NZ$0.6bn), a new record high for a data series that goes back to 1951.
Shortly after NZDUSD set a record post-floatation high, New Zealand's Prime Minister Key said that the government has concerns about the very high exchange rate, but that there have not been any discussions with the RBNZ about how to handle it. Key added however, that NZDUSD strength is largely the result of USD weakness, which suggests little immediate intervention risk.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Friday, May 27, 2011
27th of May 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
27 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar weakened sharply across the board during the Asia session. There was no clear driver behind the move, but the market does appear to be forming the opinion that Greece will eventually receive its next quarterly instalment of rescue funding from the EU/IMF, even if no decision on this is imminent. EURCHF and USDCHF hit new record lows. EURUSD traded 1.4111-1.4279, USDJPY 80.89-81.42. US Q1 GDP was unchanged despite expectations for an upward revision. The unchanged print, coupled with an unexpected rise in jobless claims, added to the recent soft patch in data and introduced further uncertainty on the timing of Fed policy tightening. US equities closed marginally positive and Treasury yields were lower across the curve. Upcoming data includes personal income and consumption for April and the final University of Michigan reading for May. The G8 concludes its two-day summit but press reports so far have indicated the communiqu? will not offer any new insights on the Eurozone crisis or currencies.
EUR
The euro continues to trade in a wide range as headlines drive price action. Greece announced further measures to privatize certain assets but the focus was on Eurogroup Chairman Juncker's comments on the potential withholding of the next IMF tranche to Greece. The possibility had been raised earlier and Juncker clarified that the tranche could still be delivered if the EU and IMF are satisfied with the new Greek measures.
ECB President Trichet repeated the line that the ECB's primary mandate is price stability. Trichet also again stressed the ECB's view that monetary policy is decoupled from liquidity provision - in other words, that rates can be hiked even if the periphery and its banks remain under pressure.
GBP
In an article in today's Financial Times, Bank of England MPC Member Posen reiterated his now familiar call for further quantitative easing. He also said the majority on the MPC was "right to have held its nerve against calls for rate hikes".
BoE Deputy Governor Tucker said policymakers remain worried on inflation but that global imbalances are more worrying. He said his own policy decisions have been "finely balanced" since 2010. Tucker has voted for an unchanged policy rate at previous meetings..
CHF
In it's latest report on the Swiss economy, the IMF recommended that "monetary accommodation should be withdrawn in the near-term", and that FX intervention should only be conducted to counteract excessive FX volatility. EURCHF and USDCHF made new record lows during the Asia session, at 1.2168 and 0.8534 respectively.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
27 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar weakened sharply across the board during the Asia session. There was no clear driver behind the move, but the market does appear to be forming the opinion that Greece will eventually receive its next quarterly instalment of rescue funding from the EU/IMF, even if no decision on this is imminent. EURCHF and USDCHF hit new record lows. EURUSD traded 1.4111-1.4279, USDJPY 80.89-81.42. US Q1 GDP was unchanged despite expectations for an upward revision. The unchanged print, coupled with an unexpected rise in jobless claims, added to the recent soft patch in data and introduced further uncertainty on the timing of Fed policy tightening. US equities closed marginally positive and Treasury yields were lower across the curve. Upcoming data includes personal income and consumption for April and the final University of Michigan reading for May. The G8 concludes its two-day summit but press reports so far have indicated the communiqu? will not offer any new insights on the Eurozone crisis or currencies.
EUR
The euro continues to trade in a wide range as headlines drive price action. Greece announced further measures to privatize certain assets but the focus was on Eurogroup Chairman Juncker's comments on the potential withholding of the next IMF tranche to Greece. The possibility had been raised earlier and Juncker clarified that the tranche could still be delivered if the EU and IMF are satisfied with the new Greek measures.
ECB President Trichet repeated the line that the ECB's primary mandate is price stability. Trichet also again stressed the ECB's view that monetary policy is decoupled from liquidity provision - in other words, that rates can be hiked even if the periphery and its banks remain under pressure.
GBP
In an article in today's Financial Times, Bank of England MPC Member Posen reiterated his now familiar call for further quantitative easing. He also said the majority on the MPC was "right to have held its nerve against calls for rate hikes".
BoE Deputy Governor Tucker said policymakers remain worried on inflation but that global imbalances are more worrying. He said his own policy decisions have been "finely balanced" since 2010. Tucker has voted for an unchanged policy rate at previous meetings..
CHF
In it's latest report on the Swiss economy, the IMF recommended that "monetary accommodation should be withdrawn in the near-term", and that FX intervention should only be conducted to counteract excessive FX volatility. EURCHF and USDCHF made new record lows during the Asia session, at 1.2168 and 0.8534 respectively.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
27th of May 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
27 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURCHF and USDCHF define new lows.
EURUSD BEARISH As long as resistance at 1.4346 holds, expect the pair to lose. Initial support is at 1.4068 ahead of 1.3970.
USDJPY BEARISH Decline through 80.94 has exposed 80.64. Resistance at 82.23 caps the upside.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Model has turned neutral with 1.6517 and 1.6268 marking the near term directional triggers.
USDCHF BEARISH The pair cleared 0.8554, key support, to expose 0.8500. Resistance lies at 0.8663.
AUDUSD BEARISH Recovery through 1.0657 has exposed 1.0794. Initial support is at 1.0510 ahead of 1.0441.
USDCAD BULLISH Stalled at 0.9816 ahead of 0.9849. Near-term support lies at 0.9744.
EURCHF BEARISH The cross continues to fall; break below the trend channel lower boundary has left little support till 1.2000. Resistance is at 1.2360.
EURGBP BEARISH Break below 0.8590 would expose 0.8534. Initial resistance is at 0.8717.
EURJPY BEARISH Move below 113.88 would lead to 113.42/00 area. Resistance lies at 116.38.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
27 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURCHF and USDCHF define new lows.
EURUSD BEARISH As long as resistance at 1.4346 holds, expect the pair to lose. Initial support is at 1.4068 ahead of 1.3970.
USDJPY BEARISH Decline through 80.94 has exposed 80.64. Resistance at 82.23 caps the upside.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Model has turned neutral with 1.6517 and 1.6268 marking the near term directional triggers.
USDCHF BEARISH The pair cleared 0.8554, key support, to expose 0.8500. Resistance lies at 0.8663.
AUDUSD BEARISH Recovery through 1.0657 has exposed 1.0794. Initial support is at 1.0510 ahead of 1.0441.
USDCAD BULLISH Stalled at 0.9816 ahead of 0.9849. Near-term support lies at 0.9744.
EURCHF BEARISH The cross continues to fall; break below the trend channel lower boundary has left little support till 1.2000. Resistance is at 1.2360.
EURGBP BEARISH Break below 0.8590 would expose 0.8534. Initial resistance is at 0.8717.
EURJPY BEARISH Move below 113.88 would lead to 113.42/00 area. Resistance lies at 116.38.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Thursday, May 26, 2011
26th of May 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
26 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar weakened sharply across the board during the Asia session as risk appetite was boosted by a succession of moderately positive headlines. Australia and New Zealand both signalled they can live with currency strength, which invited buying of the AUD and the NZD. Also, USDCNY fixed at a new low. Finally, a local media report in New Zealand reported that China might be willing to invest up to NZ$6 bn in New Zealand assets. Most importantly, there was a lack of further worrying news from the Eurozone. EURUSD traded 1.4065-1.4173 and USDJPY 81.67-82.09. Asian equities were stronger, following on from yesterday's gains in New York. Minneapolis Fed president Kocherlakota was more cautious on his outlook for US growth as he sees GDP around 3% this year. He sees core inflation below 2% in 2011 and reiterated his view for a modest rate hike later in the year, though he did say more aggressive tightening would be warranted if core inflation moves closer to 2% from his 1.5% expectation. The second estimate of Q1 GDP and the latest claims figure are due. The two-day G8 leaders summit begins in Deauville, France..
EUR
Greece's EU Commissioner Damanaki was explicit about the stark choice that Greece might one day be faced with. She said "the scenario of Greece distancing itself from the euro is on the table. We either agree with our creditors on a program of tough sacrifices that brings results, and assume the responsibilities for our past, or we return to the drachma."
ECB Governing Council member Draghi, hotly tipped to succeed ECB President Trichet in November, said that "Overheating is a clear and present danger" and that there is now a "greater need to proceed with monetary policy normalisation" to keep inflation in check. ECB Executive Board member Stark and Bundesbank President Weidmann also made hawkish remarks. Together, their comments are keeping ECB rate expectations supported but the focus remains on Eurozone sovereign debt woes.
Greek Prime Minister Papandreou declined to offer a definitive answer on whether a referendum on austerity measures might be held.
S&P said that an increase in the Irish corporate tax rate could be negative for ratings; and that a Greek restructuring would not automatically mean an Irish downgrade.
The Finnish parliament voted in favour of participation in the Portugal bailout, overcoming another hurdle for the euro.
GBP
UK Q1 GDP was confirmed at +0.5% q/q and +1.8% y/y. Our UK economist notes that by far the best news in the GDP data is the strong contribution from net trade (+1.7 percentage points) with exports growing by 3.7% and imports falling by 2.3%. It is unlikely that this speed will continue, but we expect net trade to continue making positive contributions to GDP growth.
AUD
Comments by RBA Deputy Governor Battelino boosted the AUD. He said the currency's strength was "largely understandable". He acknowledged that some sectors of the economy were suffering from the strong AUD, but said this implied that little could be done about the situation.
The AUD got a second boost when private capital expenditure for Q1 came in higher than expected at +3.4% q/q (cons. 2.7%). Our Australian economics team sticks to their view that the RBA will likely administer the next hike in August.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
26 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar weakened sharply across the board during the Asia session as risk appetite was boosted by a succession of moderately positive headlines. Australia and New Zealand both signalled they can live with currency strength, which invited buying of the AUD and the NZD. Also, USDCNY fixed at a new low. Finally, a local media report in New Zealand reported that China might be willing to invest up to NZ$6 bn in New Zealand assets. Most importantly, there was a lack of further worrying news from the Eurozone. EURUSD traded 1.4065-1.4173 and USDJPY 81.67-82.09. Asian equities were stronger, following on from yesterday's gains in New York. Minneapolis Fed president Kocherlakota was more cautious on his outlook for US growth as he sees GDP around 3% this year. He sees core inflation below 2% in 2011 and reiterated his view for a modest rate hike later in the year, though he did say more aggressive tightening would be warranted if core inflation moves closer to 2% from his 1.5% expectation. The second estimate of Q1 GDP and the latest claims figure are due. The two-day G8 leaders summit begins in Deauville, France..
EUR
Greece's EU Commissioner Damanaki was explicit about the stark choice that Greece might one day be faced with. She said "the scenario of Greece distancing itself from the euro is on the table. We either agree with our creditors on a program of tough sacrifices that brings results, and assume the responsibilities for our past, or we return to the drachma."
ECB Governing Council member Draghi, hotly tipped to succeed ECB President Trichet in November, said that "Overheating is a clear and present danger" and that there is now a "greater need to proceed with monetary policy normalisation" to keep inflation in check. ECB Executive Board member Stark and Bundesbank President Weidmann also made hawkish remarks. Together, their comments are keeping ECB rate expectations supported but the focus remains on Eurozone sovereign debt woes.
Greek Prime Minister Papandreou declined to offer a definitive answer on whether a referendum on austerity measures might be held.
S&P said that an increase in the Irish corporate tax rate could be negative for ratings; and that a Greek restructuring would not automatically mean an Irish downgrade.
The Finnish parliament voted in favour of participation in the Portugal bailout, overcoming another hurdle for the euro.
GBP
UK Q1 GDP was confirmed at +0.5% q/q and +1.8% y/y. Our UK economist notes that by far the best news in the GDP data is the strong contribution from net trade (+1.7 percentage points) with exports growing by 3.7% and imports falling by 2.3%. It is unlikely that this speed will continue, but we expect net trade to continue making positive contributions to GDP growth.
AUD
Comments by RBA Deputy Governor Battelino boosted the AUD. He said the currency's strength was "largely understandable". He acknowledged that some sectors of the economy were suffering from the strong AUD, but said this implied that little could be done about the situation.
The AUD got a second boost when private capital expenditure for Q1 came in higher than expected at +3.4% q/q (cons. 2.7%). Our Australian economics team sticks to their view that the RBA will likely administer the next hike in August.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
26th of May 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
26 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDJPY stalled in front of 82.23
EURUSD BEARISH Bounce back through 1.4147 has exposed 1.4202. Initial support is at 1.3970 ahead of 1.3903.
USDJPY BULLISH Stalled in front of 82.23, break above this would confirm the bull trend and expose 82.55. Key support is at 81.32.
GBPUSD BEARISH Recovery through 1.6305 has exposed 1.6402, but overall focus is on the downside with initial support at 1.6132 ahead of 1.6058.
USDCHF BEARISH Pressure on 0.8706; a break here would open up the way towards 0.8554 key support. Resistance lies at 0.8814.
AUDUSD BEARISH Focus on 1.0390/59 support area. Initial resistance is at 1.0657.
USDCAD BULLISH Momentum is positive with scope for gains towards 0.9828/49 resistance area. Initial support is at 0.9724.
EURCHF BEARISH Trend channel lower at 1.2263 forms the initial support, while resistance is at 1.2415.
EURGBP BEARISH Next support lies at 0.8618 ahead of 0.8590. Initial resistance is at 0.8717.
EURJPY BEARISH Initial support is at 114.73; break of this level would expose 113.88. Resistance is at 116.18.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
26 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDJPY stalled in front of 82.23
EURUSD BEARISH Bounce back through 1.4147 has exposed 1.4202. Initial support is at 1.3970 ahead of 1.3903.
USDJPY BULLISH Stalled in front of 82.23, break above this would confirm the bull trend and expose 82.55. Key support is at 81.32.
GBPUSD BEARISH Recovery through 1.6305 has exposed 1.6402, but overall focus is on the downside with initial support at 1.6132 ahead of 1.6058.
USDCHF BEARISH Pressure on 0.8706; a break here would open up the way towards 0.8554 key support. Resistance lies at 0.8814.
AUDUSD BEARISH Focus on 1.0390/59 support area. Initial resistance is at 1.0657.
USDCAD BULLISH Momentum is positive with scope for gains towards 0.9828/49 resistance area. Initial support is at 0.9724.
EURCHF BEARISH Trend channel lower at 1.2263 forms the initial support, while resistance is at 1.2415.
EURGBP BEARISH Next support lies at 0.8618 ahead of 0.8590. Initial resistance is at 0.8717.
EURJPY BEARISH Initial support is at 114.73; break of this level would expose 113.88. Resistance is at 116.18.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
25th of May 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
25 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk appetite took a turn for the worse during the Asia session, allowing the dollar to advance against the euro, the AUD, and the NZD in particular. EURUSD traded 1.4025-1.4127 and USDJPY 81.82-82.17. Asian equities were modestly weaker after US stocks closed virtually flat. BoJ Governor Shirakawa appeared to rule out an acceleration in the pace of the BoJ's monthly JGB purchases. St Louis Fed President Bullard said the debt crisis is a threat to US economic growth. According to Reuters, he went on to say that "if all goes well, [the] Fed could start to tighten in [the] second half of the year." Durable goods orders are expected to come in softer for April, which could keep dollar worries in place. But our economists note that ISM new orders continue to signal a solid trend in growth and capex plans remain relatively strong.
EUR
ECB Executive Board member Bini-Smaghi said Greece would not receive the next loan tranche it if does not meet EU/IMF conditions. The Dutch finance minister said additional aid for Greece should be preceded by further reform and privatisations.
Greek opposition leader Samaras said that the party rejects Greece new austerity plan. We note however that the ruling party has an absolute majority in parliament and the opposition's rejection is hardly a surprise. Greek Prime Minister Papandreou later said he agrees with some of the opposition's proposals but said broad political consensus is a national imperative.
The German IFO numbers signal that growth has peaked, despite the unchanged headline number. Expectations continue to decline, whereas this was offset by yet another improvement in current conditions. The details of German GDP were not so encouraging, especially following yesterday's weak PMI data. Our European economist notes that growth relied much more than expected on government spending, exports and capital investment. If core numbers from Germany start to disappoint, the euro could suffer some further downside.
Moody's said that Italy and Belgium were also likely to come under pressure if Greece defaults while Portugal and Ireland would be at risk of a multi-notch downgrade. The agency said Spain is not in the same category but would likely still face significant market pressure.
ECB Governing Council member Noyer said Greece has no alternative to implementing the EU-IMF programme "completely and entirely," and must use privatization to cut debt. ECB Executive Board member Stark says all euro creditors are `justified' in expecting their money back.
JPY
The minutes from the April 28 BoJ policy meeting confirmed again that Board member Nishimura dissented in favour of additional easing. However, the minutes revealed that another unnamed board member felt the need for additional easing had grown since the previous meeting.
BoJ Governor Shirakawa again expressed his opposition to underwriting government debt to fund the post-earthquake reconstruction effort. However he went further on this occasion, implying that the BoJ will not even accelerate the pace of its monthly JGB purchases in the secondary market, as to do so would be just as damaging to confidence in Japan's fiscal discipline.
GBP
In an interview with The Scotsman, BoE MPC member Fisher said he was also keeping an "open mind" about further quantitative easing. Fisher added that a rate hike now would be the wrong thing to do, in light of recent soft data. These dovish comments from one of the more middle-ground voters indicates that the balance has shifted to concerns over consumer spending and the feed-through effects of fiscal austerity.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
25 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk appetite took a turn for the worse during the Asia session, allowing the dollar to advance against the euro, the AUD, and the NZD in particular. EURUSD traded 1.4025-1.4127 and USDJPY 81.82-82.17. Asian equities were modestly weaker after US stocks closed virtually flat. BoJ Governor Shirakawa appeared to rule out an acceleration in the pace of the BoJ's monthly JGB purchases. St Louis Fed President Bullard said the debt crisis is a threat to US economic growth. According to Reuters, he went on to say that "if all goes well, [the] Fed could start to tighten in [the] second half of the year." Durable goods orders are expected to come in softer for April, which could keep dollar worries in place. But our economists note that ISM new orders continue to signal a solid trend in growth and capex plans remain relatively strong.
EUR
ECB Executive Board member Bini-Smaghi said Greece would not receive the next loan tranche it if does not meet EU/IMF conditions. The Dutch finance minister said additional aid for Greece should be preceded by further reform and privatisations.
Greek opposition leader Samaras said that the party rejects Greece new austerity plan. We note however that the ruling party has an absolute majority in parliament and the opposition's rejection is hardly a surprise. Greek Prime Minister Papandreou later said he agrees with some of the opposition's proposals but said broad political consensus is a national imperative.
The German IFO numbers signal that growth has peaked, despite the unchanged headline number. Expectations continue to decline, whereas this was offset by yet another improvement in current conditions. The details of German GDP were not so encouraging, especially following yesterday's weak PMI data. Our European economist notes that growth relied much more than expected on government spending, exports and capital investment. If core numbers from Germany start to disappoint, the euro could suffer some further downside.
Moody's said that Italy and Belgium were also likely to come under pressure if Greece defaults while Portugal and Ireland would be at risk of a multi-notch downgrade. The agency said Spain is not in the same category but would likely still face significant market pressure.
ECB Governing Council member Noyer said Greece has no alternative to implementing the EU-IMF programme "completely and entirely," and must use privatization to cut debt. ECB Executive Board member Stark says all euro creditors are `justified' in expecting their money back.
JPY
The minutes from the April 28 BoJ policy meeting confirmed again that Board member Nishimura dissented in favour of additional easing. However, the minutes revealed that another unnamed board member felt the need for additional easing had grown since the previous meeting.
BoJ Governor Shirakawa again expressed his opposition to underwriting government debt to fund the post-earthquake reconstruction effort. However he went further on this occasion, implying that the BoJ will not even accelerate the pace of its monthly JGB purchases in the secondary market, as to do so would be just as damaging to confidence in Japan's fiscal discipline.
GBP
In an interview with The Scotsman, BoE MPC member Fisher said he was also keeping an "open mind" about further quantitative easing. Fisher added that a rate hike now would be the wrong thing to do, in light of recent soft data. These dovish comments from one of the more middle-ground voters indicates that the balance has shifted to concerns over consumer spending and the feed-through effects of fiscal austerity.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
25th of May 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
25 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDCHF heavy below 0.8951.
EURUSD BEARISH Break of 1.3970 would shift focus to 1.3903. Resistance is at 1.4147 ahead of 1.4202.
USDJPY BULLISH Scope for gains towards 82.23 and 82.55, a break above these levels would confirm the bull trend; near-term support is at 81.32.
GBPUSD BEARISH Move below 1.6046 would signal further weakness towards 1.6000 and 1.5937. Near-term resistance is at 1.6239.
USDCHF BEARISH Remains heavy below 0.8951; initial support is at 0.8748 ahead of 0.8706.
AUDUSD BEARISH Move below initial support at 1.0443 would expose 1.0390. Near-term resistance is at 1.0657.
USDCAD BULLISH Momentum is positive; expect the pair to target 0.9828/49 resistance area. Initial support is at 0.9724.
EURGBP BEARISH Focus is on 0.8655; a break here would open 0.8618. Initial resistance is at 0.8752.
EURJPY BEARISH Initial support is at 113.88, move below this would signal scope for further downside towards 113.42/00 area. Resistance is at 116.18.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
25 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDCHF heavy below 0.8951.
EURUSD BEARISH Break of 1.3970 would shift focus to 1.3903. Resistance is at 1.4147 ahead of 1.4202.
USDJPY BULLISH Scope for gains towards 82.23 and 82.55, a break above these levels would confirm the bull trend; near-term support is at 81.32.
GBPUSD BEARISH Move below 1.6046 would signal further weakness towards 1.6000 and 1.5937. Near-term resistance is at 1.6239.
USDCHF BEARISH Remains heavy below 0.8951; initial support is at 0.8748 ahead of 0.8706.
AUDUSD BEARISH Move below initial support at 1.0443 would expose 1.0390. Near-term resistance is at 1.0657.
USDCAD BULLISH Momentum is positive; expect the pair to target 0.9828/49 resistance area. Initial support is at 0.9724.
EURGBP BEARISH Focus is on 0.8655; a break here would open 0.8618. Initial resistance is at 0.8752.
EURJPY BEARISH Initial support is at 113.88, move below this would signal scope for further downside towards 113.42/00 area. Resistance is at 116.18.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
24th of May 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
24 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD focus on 1.3903.
EURUSD BEARISH The pair bounced back from the 100 day moving average at 1.3969 yesterday. Overall focus is on downside with initial support at 1.3903 ahead of 1.3855. Resistance is at 1.4147.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Need a break above 82.23 and 82.55 to trigger the bull trend; near-term support is at 81.32.
GBPUSD BEARISH Decline through the 1.6091 has exposed 1.6046, while initial resistance lies at 1.6239.
USDCHF NEUTRAL 0.8951 and 0.8706 mark the near-term directional triggers.
AUDUSD BEARISH Break of 1.0506 has shifted focus to 1.0443 and 1.0390. Near-term resistance is at 1.0657.
USDCAD BULLISH Upside potential; the pair targets 0.9828/49 resistance area. Initial support is at 0.9724.
EURCHF BEARISH Recovery has resistance at 1.2500. While the level holds, expect the cross to continue its loss towards 1.2324 ahead of 1.2297.
EURGBP BEARISH Support is at 0.8655/26 area. Initial resistance is at 0.8800.
EURJPY BEARISH Focus is on 113.42/00 area ahead of 110.54, while resistance holds at 117.24.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
24 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD focus on 1.3903.
EURUSD BEARISH The pair bounced back from the 100 day moving average at 1.3969 yesterday. Overall focus is on downside with initial support at 1.3903 ahead of 1.3855. Resistance is at 1.4147.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Need a break above 82.23 and 82.55 to trigger the bull trend; near-term support is at 81.32.
GBPUSD BEARISH Decline through the 1.6091 has exposed 1.6046, while initial resistance lies at 1.6239.
USDCHF NEUTRAL 0.8951 and 0.8706 mark the near-term directional triggers.
AUDUSD BEARISH Break of 1.0506 has shifted focus to 1.0443 and 1.0390. Near-term resistance is at 1.0657.
USDCAD BULLISH Upside potential; the pair targets 0.9828/49 resistance area. Initial support is at 0.9724.
EURCHF BEARISH Recovery has resistance at 1.2500. While the level holds, expect the cross to continue its loss towards 1.2324 ahead of 1.2297.
EURGBP BEARISH Support is at 0.8655/26 area. Initial resistance is at 0.8800.
EURJPY BEARISH Focus is on 113.42/00 area ahead of 110.54, while resistance holds at 117.24.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
24th of May 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
24 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The euro staged a modest recovery during the Asia session after a failed attempt to break back below 1.40. EURUSD traded 1.4002-1.4081 and USDJPY 81.77-82.09. EURCHF also climbed back above the 1.2450 level, helped higher by some warnings from the SNB about the deflationary risks associated with a stronger Swiss franc, and about its willingness to act if necessary. Asian equities were relatively steady after yesterday's global selloff, which also contributed to the modest pick-up in sentiment. Earlier, the S&P 500 closed 1.2% lower. St Louis Fed President Bullard implied that the Fed is likely to remain on hold for some time after the end of QE2, and pointed out that "a pause allows more time to assess the strength of the economy". These comments are very much in tune with remarks made by Fed Chairman Bernanke at his inaugural press conference. Bullard went on to say by the word "pause" he meant that rates would stay near zero and that the key "extended period" language would remain. There were no US data releases yesterday, and the calendar is thin today too. New home sales are due however, along with speeches from Fed officials Duke, Hoenig and Plosser.
EUR
Greek Finance Minister Papaconstantinou implied that if Greece does not receive the next quarterly tranche of cash it will be unable to honour its financial obligations. Imagining the likely consequences, he said "the country will halt payments" adding that "wages, pensions - all the state's expenses will not be paid." Papaconstantinou also revealed that the IMF has made it "absolutely clear" that it cannot disburse the next tranche without a guarantee that European funding will be made available to Greece next year. This requirement potentially introduces further delay.
Greece announced plans to privatise several state assets. It also revealed it's intention to impose fresh fiscal austerity measures designed to save a further ?6 bn. Further details are due to be announced next week, and presented to parliament in early June. The stated ambition is to lower the deficit to 7.5% of GDP in 2011. There has been no official reaction as yet from the troika.
Fitch affirmed Belgium's credit rating at AA+ but lowered the outlook to negative from stable, citing heightened political risk. The agency said Belgium would likely be downgraded if it misses official deficit targets.
S&P provided some clarification on its decision to lower the outlook on Italy's rating to negative from stable on Friday. The agency said it does not expect Italy to seek financial assistance from the EU or from the IMF "due to the absence of imbalances". S&P also acknowledged that Italian banks, unlike those in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, or Spain, have made little use of ECB liquidity.
ECB Executive Board member Bini-Smaghi said markets are sometimes complacent about inflation expectations but that the ECB is monitoring the risks of second-round inflation effects "very closely". On whether Greek bonds would be rendered ineligible at ECB tenders in the event of default, he said the ECB has to lend to "sound counterparties".
Portugal's Finance Minister dos Santos said that "sovereign restructuring is not on the agenda in Portugal" and that the country's sovereign debt is on a sustainable path.
ECB settled no bonds last week under its Securities Markets Program. The sovereign bond purchasing program has now been dormant for eight weeks.
CHF
SNB Vice Chairman Jordan said he is very worried about the Swiss franc's rise and would act if deflationary risks were to emerge. He did say however that, until now, the export sector has coped reasonably well with the stronger CHF. Jordan added that interest rates can stay low for longer if inflationary risks remain contained.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
24 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The euro staged a modest recovery during the Asia session after a failed attempt to break back below 1.40. EURUSD traded 1.4002-1.4081 and USDJPY 81.77-82.09. EURCHF also climbed back above the 1.2450 level, helped higher by some warnings from the SNB about the deflationary risks associated with a stronger Swiss franc, and about its willingness to act if necessary. Asian equities were relatively steady after yesterday's global selloff, which also contributed to the modest pick-up in sentiment. Earlier, the S&P 500 closed 1.2% lower. St Louis Fed President Bullard implied that the Fed is likely to remain on hold for some time after the end of QE2, and pointed out that "a pause allows more time to assess the strength of the economy". These comments are very much in tune with remarks made by Fed Chairman Bernanke at his inaugural press conference. Bullard went on to say by the word "pause" he meant that rates would stay near zero and that the key "extended period" language would remain. There were no US data releases yesterday, and the calendar is thin today too. New home sales are due however, along with speeches from Fed officials Duke, Hoenig and Plosser.
EUR
Greek Finance Minister Papaconstantinou implied that if Greece does not receive the next quarterly tranche of cash it will be unable to honour its financial obligations. Imagining the likely consequences, he said "the country will halt payments" adding that "wages, pensions - all the state's expenses will not be paid." Papaconstantinou also revealed that the IMF has made it "absolutely clear" that it cannot disburse the next tranche without a guarantee that European funding will be made available to Greece next year. This requirement potentially introduces further delay.
Greece announced plans to privatise several state assets. It also revealed it's intention to impose fresh fiscal austerity measures designed to save a further ?6 bn. Further details are due to be announced next week, and presented to parliament in early June. The stated ambition is to lower the deficit to 7.5% of GDP in 2011. There has been no official reaction as yet from the troika.
Fitch affirmed Belgium's credit rating at AA+ but lowered the outlook to negative from stable, citing heightened political risk. The agency said Belgium would likely be downgraded if it misses official deficit targets.
S&P provided some clarification on its decision to lower the outlook on Italy's rating to negative from stable on Friday. The agency said it does not expect Italy to seek financial assistance from the EU or from the IMF "due to the absence of imbalances". S&P also acknowledged that Italian banks, unlike those in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, or Spain, have made little use of ECB liquidity.
ECB Executive Board member Bini-Smaghi said markets are sometimes complacent about inflation expectations but that the ECB is monitoring the risks of second-round inflation effects "very closely". On whether Greek bonds would be rendered ineligible at ECB tenders in the event of default, he said the ECB has to lend to "sound counterparties".
Portugal's Finance Minister dos Santos said that "sovereign restructuring is not on the agenda in Portugal" and that the country's sovereign debt is on a sustainable path.
ECB settled no bonds last week under its Securities Markets Program. The sovereign bond purchasing program has now been dormant for eight weeks.
CHF
SNB Vice Chairman Jordan said he is very worried about the Swiss franc's rise and would act if deflationary risks were to emerge. He did say however that, until now, the export sector has coped reasonably well with the stronger CHF. Jordan added that interest rates can stay low for longer if inflationary risks remain contained.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Monday, May 23, 2011
23rd of May 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
23 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURCHF clears 1.2403 key low
EURUSD BEARISH Break below 1.4121 has shifted focus to 1.4048/21 support zone. Near-term resistance is at 1.4346 ahead of 1.4389.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Break above 82.23 and 82.55 is required to trigger the bull trend; near-term support is at 80.94.
GBPUSD BEARISH Momentum is negative with initial support at 1.6091 ahead of 1.6046. Initial resistance is at 1.6351.
USDCHF NEUTRAL 0.8951 and 0.8706 mark the near-term directional triggers.
AUDUSD BEARISH The pair heads towards 1.0506; break of the level would expose 1.0443. Near-term resistance is at 1.0711.
USDCAD BULLISH Rise above 0.9794 would expose 0.9849. Support lies at 0.9641.
EURCHF BEARISH Break of 1.2403, the key low from Dec 30, has exposed 1.2314, trend channel support. Resistance is at 1.2500.
EURGBP BEARISH Pressure on 0.8674; breach of the level would expose 0.8655. Resistance is at 0.8722.
EURJPY BEARISH Violation of 115.23 has opened up the way towards 114.29 and 113.42, resistance holds at 117.24.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
23 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURCHF clears 1.2403 key low
EURUSD BEARISH Break below 1.4121 has shifted focus to 1.4048/21 support zone. Near-term resistance is at 1.4346 ahead of 1.4389.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Break above 82.23 and 82.55 is required to trigger the bull trend; near-term support is at 80.94.
GBPUSD BEARISH Momentum is negative with initial support at 1.6091 ahead of 1.6046. Initial resistance is at 1.6351.
USDCHF NEUTRAL 0.8951 and 0.8706 mark the near-term directional triggers.
AUDUSD BEARISH The pair heads towards 1.0506; break of the level would expose 1.0443. Near-term resistance is at 1.0711.
USDCAD BULLISH Rise above 0.9794 would expose 0.9849. Support lies at 0.9641.
EURCHF BEARISH Break of 1.2403, the key low from Dec 30, has exposed 1.2314, trend channel support. Resistance is at 1.2500.
EURGBP BEARISH Pressure on 0.8674; breach of the level would expose 0.8655. Resistance is at 0.8722.
EURJPY BEARISH Violation of 115.23 has opened up the way towards 114.29 and 113.42, resistance holds at 117.24.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
23rd of May 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
23 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The euro continued to sell off during the Asia session amid signs that the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis is escalating again. Friday's Eurozone headlines continued to haunt the euro overnight but, adding to the downside pressure, a weekend report in a Greek newspaper claimed that if the next quarterly instalment of EU/IMF funding is not released, Greece will run out of money by July 18. EURUSD traded 1.4065-1.4147 and USDJPY 81.59-82.02. EURCHF made a new record low of 1.2345. Asian equities are down about -1.5% at the time of writing. The S&P 500 finished -0.77% weaker on Friday. New York Fed President Dudley continued to sound dovish, and his views were unchanged from those he expressed the day before. He repeated that policy should not 'overreact' to higher energy prices. Although he conceded that higher gasoline prices are 'troubling' to everyone, he said the recent decline in commodity prices is a 'hopeful sign'. There were no US data releases on Friday. Attention this week is likely to focus on Thursday's second estimate of Q1 GDP - our US economists are in line with the consensus and expect a small upward revision to the earlier estimate.
EUR
We remain cautious on the euro given all the headline risk surrounding the latest phase of Europe's fiscal crisis.
According to the Greek press, the IMF suspended its quarterly review of Greece's fiscal consolidation program until such time as further austerity measures and more aggressive plans for the privatisation of state assets are drawn up. If true, this raises the risk that the next quarterly instalment of rescue funds could be delayed.
Fitch cut Greece's credit rating by three notches, to B+ from BB+. The rating remains on negative watch. The agency cited increased political and implementation risk to the fiscal consolidation program. It sees a higher risk that EU/IMF funding will be delayed, and also warned it would interpret a 'reprofiling' of Greek bond debt as a default event. The downgrade brings Fitch in line with Moody's, while S&P rates Greece one notch lower still. Greek 10y bond yields rose to a new record high since the launch of the euro, closing at 16.18%. On a more positive note, Fitch said it expects the question of a new rescue package for Greece, as well as the role of private creditors, to be resolved by the end of June. This chimes with weekend comments by Eurogroup Chairman Juncker who said Europe will 'try to solve the Greek debt problem in June'.
French Finance Minister Lagarde said that Greece is threatened with bankruptcy and urged privatisation plans be brought forward. She stressed again that debt rescheduling will not happen, but said she would accept any voluntary concessions that Greek bondholders might be willing to make.
Bundesbank President and ECB Governing Council member Weidmann said that if a Eurozone country in receipt of financial assistance fails to take the necessary steps to consolidate its finances 'further support should no longer be taken for granted and the country should be prepared to bear the severe consequences that are likely to ensue once financial assistance is withdrawn'. Referring specifically to the consequences for ECB collateral eligibility, he said any 'reprofiling' of the maturities of Greek bonds 'would make it impossible to accept them as collateral&under the existing rules of the Eurosystem's collateral framework'. This echoes comments made earlier in the week by ECB Executive Board member Stark.
The head of the IMF's mission to Ireland, Chopra, said a comprehensive approach to Europe's debt crisis is now a matter of urgency, and that Europe needs to quickly upgrade the EFSF so that it can deal more flexibly with the crisis. He added that the continued availability of ECB liquidity is critical for countries dealing with banking issues.
Norway announced it would suspend the payment of a $42 mn grant to Greece, alleging that Greece had not fulfilled its commitments and may have broken rules. The grant is not in any way related to Greece's financial rescue plan announced in May 2010. However, this was not immediately apparent to investors, and the euro sold off on Friday in the confusion.
The IMF approved its part of Portugal's ?78 bn rescue package, which amounts to one-third of the total. This clearly shows the IMF is functioning despite the resignation of its Managing Director Strauss-Kahn. Concerns over the repayment of a bond maturing on June 15 should ease, with ?6.1 bn of IMF cash due to be made available immediately. Europe's rescue facilities, the EFSF and the ESM, are due to kick into action over the coming weeks to raise additional funds for Portugal.
S&P affirmed Italy's long-term rating at A+ but downgraded the outlook to negative from stable. The agency cited the weak growth outlook, and the potential for "political gridlock" which "could contribute to fiscal slippage".
JPY
BoJ Governor Shirakawa pointed to the positive aspects of yen strength. Although he conceded that a stronger yen would squeeze exporters in the near-term, he said yen strength can help the terms of trade in the longer run. The remarks suggest Japanese officials are becoming more tolerant of a strong yen. However it should be noted that Japan's currency policy is decided by the Ministry of Finance, not the BoJ.
GBP
BoE MPC member Dale re-affirmed his hawkish stance over the weekend. This is a significant development given the minutes of the May 5 policy meeting described his decision to vote for a hike as 'finely balanced'. However, in an interview published in the weekend Financial Times, there was no sign his commitment to an early hike had waned. Although he did not say so explicitly, the much stronger than expected April CPI report released last week may have reinforced his view. Dale conceded that although he is not confident a self-sustaining UK recovery has taken hold, he is even more worried about high inflation. He acknowledged the adverse impact a rate hike would have on some families, but said the cost would be even greater if inflation were to become more persistent and if the BoE were to lose its credibility.
UK April retail sales were firmer at +1.1% m/m (prev. +0.8%). The ONS attributed the stronger print to warm weather, and to several public holidays which occurred in quick succession.
CAD
The CAD endured a double dose of downside on Friday after two data releases fell short of expectations. First the inflation report was weak: headline CPI came in softer than expected at +0.3% m/m in April (cons +0.5%), and at +3.3% y/y (cons +3.4%). Core CPI however, was perfectly in line with consensus expectations at +1.6% y/y, and remains comfortably inside the BoC's target range of 1-3%. Next, retail sales were also soft, stagnating in March against expectations of a +0.9% m/m expansion.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
23 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The euro continued to sell off during the Asia session amid signs that the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis is escalating again. Friday's Eurozone headlines continued to haunt the euro overnight but, adding to the downside pressure, a weekend report in a Greek newspaper claimed that if the next quarterly instalment of EU/IMF funding is not released, Greece will run out of money by July 18. EURUSD traded 1.4065-1.4147 and USDJPY 81.59-82.02. EURCHF made a new record low of 1.2345. Asian equities are down about -1.5% at the time of writing. The S&P 500 finished -0.77% weaker on Friday. New York Fed President Dudley continued to sound dovish, and his views were unchanged from those he expressed the day before. He repeated that policy should not 'overreact' to higher energy prices. Although he conceded that higher gasoline prices are 'troubling' to everyone, he said the recent decline in commodity prices is a 'hopeful sign'. There were no US data releases on Friday. Attention this week is likely to focus on Thursday's second estimate of Q1 GDP - our US economists are in line with the consensus and expect a small upward revision to the earlier estimate.
EUR
We remain cautious on the euro given all the headline risk surrounding the latest phase of Europe's fiscal crisis.
According to the Greek press, the IMF suspended its quarterly review of Greece's fiscal consolidation program until such time as further austerity measures and more aggressive plans for the privatisation of state assets are drawn up. If true, this raises the risk that the next quarterly instalment of rescue funds could be delayed.
Fitch cut Greece's credit rating by three notches, to B+ from BB+. The rating remains on negative watch. The agency cited increased political and implementation risk to the fiscal consolidation program. It sees a higher risk that EU/IMF funding will be delayed, and also warned it would interpret a 'reprofiling' of Greek bond debt as a default event. The downgrade brings Fitch in line with Moody's, while S&P rates Greece one notch lower still. Greek 10y bond yields rose to a new record high since the launch of the euro, closing at 16.18%. On a more positive note, Fitch said it expects the question of a new rescue package for Greece, as well as the role of private creditors, to be resolved by the end of June. This chimes with weekend comments by Eurogroup Chairman Juncker who said Europe will 'try to solve the Greek debt problem in June'.
French Finance Minister Lagarde said that Greece is threatened with bankruptcy and urged privatisation plans be brought forward. She stressed again that debt rescheduling will not happen, but said she would accept any voluntary concessions that Greek bondholders might be willing to make.
Bundesbank President and ECB Governing Council member Weidmann said that if a Eurozone country in receipt of financial assistance fails to take the necessary steps to consolidate its finances 'further support should no longer be taken for granted and the country should be prepared to bear the severe consequences that are likely to ensue once financial assistance is withdrawn'. Referring specifically to the consequences for ECB collateral eligibility, he said any 'reprofiling' of the maturities of Greek bonds 'would make it impossible to accept them as collateral&under the existing rules of the Eurosystem's collateral framework'. This echoes comments made earlier in the week by ECB Executive Board member Stark.
The head of the IMF's mission to Ireland, Chopra, said a comprehensive approach to Europe's debt crisis is now a matter of urgency, and that Europe needs to quickly upgrade the EFSF so that it can deal more flexibly with the crisis. He added that the continued availability of ECB liquidity is critical for countries dealing with banking issues.
Norway announced it would suspend the payment of a $42 mn grant to Greece, alleging that Greece had not fulfilled its commitments and may have broken rules. The grant is not in any way related to Greece's financial rescue plan announced in May 2010. However, this was not immediately apparent to investors, and the euro sold off on Friday in the confusion.
The IMF approved its part of Portugal's ?78 bn rescue package, which amounts to one-third of the total. This clearly shows the IMF is functioning despite the resignation of its Managing Director Strauss-Kahn. Concerns over the repayment of a bond maturing on June 15 should ease, with ?6.1 bn of IMF cash due to be made available immediately. Europe's rescue facilities, the EFSF and the ESM, are due to kick into action over the coming weeks to raise additional funds for Portugal.
S&P affirmed Italy's long-term rating at A+ but downgraded the outlook to negative from stable. The agency cited the weak growth outlook, and the potential for "political gridlock" which "could contribute to fiscal slippage".
JPY
BoJ Governor Shirakawa pointed to the positive aspects of yen strength. Although he conceded that a stronger yen would squeeze exporters in the near-term, he said yen strength can help the terms of trade in the longer run. The remarks suggest Japanese officials are becoming more tolerant of a strong yen. However it should be noted that Japan's currency policy is decided by the Ministry of Finance, not the BoJ.
GBP
BoE MPC member Dale re-affirmed his hawkish stance over the weekend. This is a significant development given the minutes of the May 5 policy meeting described his decision to vote for a hike as 'finely balanced'. However, in an interview published in the weekend Financial Times, there was no sign his commitment to an early hike had waned. Although he did not say so explicitly, the much stronger than expected April CPI report released last week may have reinforced his view. Dale conceded that although he is not confident a self-sustaining UK recovery has taken hold, he is even more worried about high inflation. He acknowledged the adverse impact a rate hike would have on some families, but said the cost would be even greater if inflation were to become more persistent and if the BoE were to lose its credibility.
UK April retail sales were firmer at +1.1% m/m (prev. +0.8%). The ONS attributed the stronger print to warm weather, and to several public holidays which occurred in quick succession.
CAD
The CAD endured a double dose of downside on Friday after two data releases fell short of expectations. First the inflation report was weak: headline CPI came in softer than expected at +0.3% m/m in April (cons +0.5%), and at +3.3% y/y (cons +3.4%). Core CPI however, was perfectly in line with consensus expectations at +1.6% y/y, and remains comfortably inside the BoC's target range of 1-3%. Next, retail sales were also soft, stagnating in March against expectations of a +0.9% m/m expansion.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Friday, May 20, 2011
20th of May 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
20 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
There was little in the way of market-moving headlines or economic data during the Asia session, which caused currencies to drift. The BoJ kept policy unchanged. EURUSD traded 1.4293-1.4337, USDJPY 81.47-81.79. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, index of leading economic indicators, and existing home sales all disappointed, although initial jobless claims managed to fall more than expected. The more dovish regional Fed presidents, New York's Dudley and Chicago's Evans, did not appear to shift from their dovish stances. Evans said policy would likely remain accommodative through 2011 though recent weak data is likely a "transitory hiccup." Dallas Fed president Fisher, meanwhile, sounded hawkish as usual. The Fed officials discussed exit options and tools but stressed there was no imminent sequence or timing, much in line with the neutral tone of the FOMC minutes. Recent data softness has caused some concern the soft patch could be prolonged but we maintain the view that the recovery will continue, albeit with some bumps on the way, and the dollar should benefit as the Fed seeks to normalize policy post-QE2.
EUR
The EFSF and ESM are set to raise funds for Portugal and Ireland on the market between May 23 and July 15. The EFSF already issued its maiden bond in January and it saw very strong demand, especially from overseas reserve managers.
Eurogroup's Juncker clarified comments made earlier this week and said that he is radically opposed to total restructuring of Greek debt.
The Dutch finance minister said that if Greece goes bankrupt, it would have a domino effect in the Eurozone.
A Spanish sovereign bond auction was quite mixed; the 2041 bonds had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.0 (prev. 2.1), but a higher yield of 6.002% (prev. 5.875%). The 10y bonds had a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.8 (prev. 2.1), with a yield of 5.395% (prev. 5.472%).
JPY
The BoJ kept the policy band unchanged at 0-0.1%. No changes were made to any of its unconventional policy measures either. USDJPY did not react to the headlines. Deputy Governor Nishimura, who had dissented at the April 28 meeting in favour of more easing, voted in line with the other board members this time. So no dissenting votes were cast, which suggests that the prospect of further near-term easing is now even more remote. Governor Shirakawa is due to give a press conference later today, but we do not expect any market-moving announcements.
GBP
UK April retail sales were firmer at +1.1% m/m (prev. +0.8%). The ONS attributed the strength in retail sales to the extra holiday and warm weather. We remain cautious on sterling as fiscal austerity bites.
CAD
We expect +3.4% y/y on headline CPI for April, +1.6% y/y on core, both in line with consensus. Higher gasoline prices should keep the y/y readings as they are, with the headline above the inflation target range but the core relatively well behaved within the 1-3% range.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
20 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
There was little in the way of market-moving headlines or economic data during the Asia session, which caused currencies to drift. The BoJ kept policy unchanged. EURUSD traded 1.4293-1.4337, USDJPY 81.47-81.79. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, index of leading economic indicators, and existing home sales all disappointed, although initial jobless claims managed to fall more than expected. The more dovish regional Fed presidents, New York's Dudley and Chicago's Evans, did not appear to shift from their dovish stances. Evans said policy would likely remain accommodative through 2011 though recent weak data is likely a "transitory hiccup." Dallas Fed president Fisher, meanwhile, sounded hawkish as usual. The Fed officials discussed exit options and tools but stressed there was no imminent sequence or timing, much in line with the neutral tone of the FOMC minutes. Recent data softness has caused some concern the soft patch could be prolonged but we maintain the view that the recovery will continue, albeit with some bumps on the way, and the dollar should benefit as the Fed seeks to normalize policy post-QE2.
EUR
The EFSF and ESM are set to raise funds for Portugal and Ireland on the market between May 23 and July 15. The EFSF already issued its maiden bond in January and it saw very strong demand, especially from overseas reserve managers.
Eurogroup's Juncker clarified comments made earlier this week and said that he is radically opposed to total restructuring of Greek debt.
The Dutch finance minister said that if Greece goes bankrupt, it would have a domino effect in the Eurozone.
A Spanish sovereign bond auction was quite mixed; the 2041 bonds had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.0 (prev. 2.1), but a higher yield of 6.002% (prev. 5.875%). The 10y bonds had a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.8 (prev. 2.1), with a yield of 5.395% (prev. 5.472%).
JPY
The BoJ kept the policy band unchanged at 0-0.1%. No changes were made to any of its unconventional policy measures either. USDJPY did not react to the headlines. Deputy Governor Nishimura, who had dissented at the April 28 meeting in favour of more easing, voted in line with the other board members this time. So no dissenting votes were cast, which suggests that the prospect of further near-term easing is now even more remote. Governor Shirakawa is due to give a press conference later today, but we do not expect any market-moving announcements.
GBP
UK April retail sales were firmer at +1.1% m/m (prev. +0.8%). The ONS attributed the strength in retail sales to the extra holiday and warm weather. We remain cautious on sterling as fiscal austerity bites.
CAD
We expect +3.4% y/y on headline CPI for April, +1.6% y/y on core, both in line with consensus. Higher gasoline prices should keep the y/y readings as they are, with the headline above the inflation target range but the core relatively well behaved within the 1-3% range.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
20th of May 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
20 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
AUDUSD 1.0717 caps recoveries.
EURUSD BEARISH The pair holds below 1.4389, focus is on the downside with initial support at 1.4121 ahead of 1.4048/21 support area.
USDJPY NEUTRAL The pair pulled back yesterday from 82.23 to close below the open. Break above the level would expose 82.55; near-term support is at 80.94.
GBPUSD BEARISH Stalled above 1.6091; break below this would lead to 1.6046 and 1.6000. Initial resistance is at 1.6288.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Only a break below 0.8706 would signal resumption of the bear trend. Near-term resistance is at 0.8951.
AUDUSD BEARISH While resistance at 1.0717 continues to cap recoveries, a break below 1.0506 would expose 1.0443,
USDCAD BULLISH If support at 0.9600 is intact, break through 0.9759 initial resistance would expose 0.9794.
EURCHF BEARISH Rise above 1.2702 would put odds in favor of a reversal. Initial support lies at 1.2534 ahead of 1.2485.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Violation of 0.8858 would favour upside, while a pullback through 0.8757 would open 0.8674.
EURJPY BEARISH Break of 117.60 would certainly hurt the ongoing bear trend. If the level holds, expect decline towards 115.23 and 114.29.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
20 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
AUDUSD 1.0717 caps recoveries.
EURUSD BEARISH The pair holds below 1.4389, focus is on the downside with initial support at 1.4121 ahead of 1.4048/21 support area.
USDJPY NEUTRAL The pair pulled back yesterday from 82.23 to close below the open. Break above the level would expose 82.55; near-term support is at 80.94.
GBPUSD BEARISH Stalled above 1.6091; break below this would lead to 1.6046 and 1.6000. Initial resistance is at 1.6288.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Only a break below 0.8706 would signal resumption of the bear trend. Near-term resistance is at 0.8951.
AUDUSD BEARISH While resistance at 1.0717 continues to cap recoveries, a break below 1.0506 would expose 1.0443,
USDCAD BULLISH If support at 0.9600 is intact, break through 0.9759 initial resistance would expose 0.9794.
EURCHF BEARISH Rise above 1.2702 would put odds in favor of a reversal. Initial support lies at 1.2534 ahead of 1.2485.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Violation of 0.8858 would favour upside, while a pullback through 0.8757 would open 0.8674.
EURJPY BEARISH Break of 117.60 would certainly hurt the ongoing bear trend. If the level holds, expect decline towards 115.23 and 114.29.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Thursday, May 19, 2011
19th of May 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
19 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk appetite rose steadily for most of the Asia trading session, but took a turn for the worse as the start of the European session drew near. USDJPY made some upward progress after the FOMC minutes helped keep US yields supported. EURUSD traded 1.4212-1.4306, USDJPY 81.38-81.81. The minutes themselves were not hugely surprising as Fed Chairman Bernanke had already laid out a less dovish stance at his first press conference. Officials remained cautious on growth, though they did note the recovery would "strengthen over time." But market participants may have been surprised at the extent to which exit strategies were discussed, as officials laid down several guiding principles for policy normalization, even though the minutes gave no indication that any decisions were imminent. Nevertheless, the dollar received a modest boost from the minutes and the S&P 500 closed up +0.88%. St Louis Fed president Bullard said the Fed is likely to stay on hold until at least late 2011. We now await comments from the more dovish members of the committee, regional Fed presidents Dudley and Evans. Upcoming data releases include jobless claims, existing home sales, leading indicators and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index.
EUR
ECB Governing Council member Constancio said a Greek debt restructuring is the last resort, which suggests he would not rule it out completely. Meanwhile, ECB Executive Board member Stark said it is an illusion to think Greek debt restructuring would help solve the problems the country faces. Rather, he said it would reduce Greek bank liquidity and wipe out bank capital. Greek Finance Minister Papaconstantinou does not see any magic restructuring scenarios that would take Greece out of a crisis situation but said that Greece will continue with its fiscal austerity plans.
ECB Executive Board member Bini Smaghi said that Greece faces a choice between tough consolidation measures and disaster like Argentine-style default. He added that a soft-restructuring concept is unclear, and that nobody knows what it means exactly. He also said the Fed and the BoE, unlike the ECB, are financing state deficits, which is postponing consolidation in the US and the UK.
JPY
Japan's Q1 GDP was much weaker than expected, falling -0.9% q/q (cons. -0.5%) and -3.7% y/y (cons. -1.9%). The tragic disaster on March 11 clearly played a role, although there is other underlying economic weakness too given this is the second successive quarterly contraction.
GBP
The minutes from the May 5 BoE policy meeting were more dovish than expected. There was no change in the vote split, which remained at 6-3 in favour of no hike. MPC member Sentance voted for a 50bp hike, and Weale and Dale for a 25bp hike. However, the minutes revealed that "Two of these members [Dale and Weale] regarded the matter as finely balanced and favoured only a small tightening in policy, given the weakness of the real economy and the uncertainty facing the outlook". So it is clear that even the hawks are turning more cautious. With rate expectations pushed back we remain cautious on sterling, although a rate hike in August remains the base case of our analysts.
UK April jobless claims increased by +12.4k, well ahead of expectations for no change. UK March ILO unemployment rate came in at 7.7%, just lower than expectations for 7.8%..
NZD
Consumer confidence for May fell -1.3%, and wages in Q1 grew by a slower pace than expected, rising only +0.8% q/q (cons. +1.1%). Our Australian economics team notes that today's data reduces the pressure for a near-term rate hike, but they stick to their view that the RBA will likely next hike in August.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
19 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk appetite rose steadily for most of the Asia trading session, but took a turn for the worse as the start of the European session drew near. USDJPY made some upward progress after the FOMC minutes helped keep US yields supported. EURUSD traded 1.4212-1.4306, USDJPY 81.38-81.81. The minutes themselves were not hugely surprising as Fed Chairman Bernanke had already laid out a less dovish stance at his first press conference. Officials remained cautious on growth, though they did note the recovery would "strengthen over time." But market participants may have been surprised at the extent to which exit strategies were discussed, as officials laid down several guiding principles for policy normalization, even though the minutes gave no indication that any decisions were imminent. Nevertheless, the dollar received a modest boost from the minutes and the S&P 500 closed up +0.88%. St Louis Fed president Bullard said the Fed is likely to stay on hold until at least late 2011. We now await comments from the more dovish members of the committee, regional Fed presidents Dudley and Evans. Upcoming data releases include jobless claims, existing home sales, leading indicators and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index.
EUR
ECB Governing Council member Constancio said a Greek debt restructuring is the last resort, which suggests he would not rule it out completely. Meanwhile, ECB Executive Board member Stark said it is an illusion to think Greek debt restructuring would help solve the problems the country faces. Rather, he said it would reduce Greek bank liquidity and wipe out bank capital. Greek Finance Minister Papaconstantinou does not see any magic restructuring scenarios that would take Greece out of a crisis situation but said that Greece will continue with its fiscal austerity plans.
ECB Executive Board member Bini Smaghi said that Greece faces a choice between tough consolidation measures and disaster like Argentine-style default. He added that a soft-restructuring concept is unclear, and that nobody knows what it means exactly. He also said the Fed and the BoE, unlike the ECB, are financing state deficits, which is postponing consolidation in the US and the UK.
JPY
Japan's Q1 GDP was much weaker than expected, falling -0.9% q/q (cons. -0.5%) and -3.7% y/y (cons. -1.9%). The tragic disaster on March 11 clearly played a role, although there is other underlying economic weakness too given this is the second successive quarterly contraction.
GBP
The minutes from the May 5 BoE policy meeting were more dovish than expected. There was no change in the vote split, which remained at 6-3 in favour of no hike. MPC member Sentance voted for a 50bp hike, and Weale and Dale for a 25bp hike. However, the minutes revealed that "Two of these members [Dale and Weale] regarded the matter as finely balanced and favoured only a small tightening in policy, given the weakness of the real economy and the uncertainty facing the outlook". So it is clear that even the hawks are turning more cautious. With rate expectations pushed back we remain cautious on sterling, although a rate hike in August remains the base case of our analysts.
UK April jobless claims increased by +12.4k, well ahead of expectations for no change. UK March ILO unemployment rate came in at 7.7%, just lower than expectations for 7.8%..
NZD
Consumer confidence for May fell -1.3%, and wages in Q1 grew by a slower pace than expected, rising only +0.8% q/q (cons. +1.1%). Our Australian economics team notes that today's data reduces the pressure for a near-term rate hike, but they stick to their view that the RBA will likely next hike in August.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
19th of May 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
19 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDJPY targets 81.85.
EURUSD BEARISH As long as resistance at 1.4389 holds, focus is on the downside with initial support at 1.4121 ahead of 1.4048/21 support area.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Recovery targets 81.85; a break here would trigger a positive tone. Support lies at 80.94.
GBPUSD BEARISH Momentum is negative with focus on 1.6091; break though the level would expose 1.6046 and 1.6000. Initial resistance is at 1.6288.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Near-term resistance is at 0.8951, while break of 0.8784 has exposed 0.8708.
AUDUSD BEARISH While resistance at 1.0717 holds, expect losses towards 1.0506 ahead of 1.0443.
USDCAD BULLISH Pullback through 0.9684 has exposed 0.9600. Initial resistance is at 0.9759 ahead of 0.9794.
EURCHF BEARISH Pressure builds on 1.2485/33 support zone. Near-term resistance lies at 1.2614.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Violation of 0.8858 would favour upside, while a pullback through 0.8757 would open 0.8674.
EURJPY BEARISH Recovery holds below 116.90, which keeps our focus on the downside. Initial support is at 115.23 ahead of 114.29.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
19 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDJPY targets 81.85.
EURUSD BEARISH As long as resistance at 1.4389 holds, focus is on the downside with initial support at 1.4121 ahead of 1.4048/21 support area.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Recovery targets 81.85; a break here would trigger a positive tone. Support lies at 80.94.
GBPUSD BEARISH Momentum is negative with focus on 1.6091; break though the level would expose 1.6046 and 1.6000. Initial resistance is at 1.6288.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Near-term resistance is at 0.8951, while break of 0.8784 has exposed 0.8708.
AUDUSD BEARISH While resistance at 1.0717 holds, expect losses towards 1.0506 ahead of 1.0443.
USDCAD BULLISH Pullback through 0.9684 has exposed 0.9600. Initial resistance is at 0.9759 ahead of 0.9794.
EURCHF BEARISH Pressure builds on 1.2485/33 support zone. Near-term resistance lies at 1.2614.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Violation of 0.8858 would favour upside, while a pullback through 0.8757 would open 0.8674.
EURJPY BEARISH Recovery holds below 116.90, which keeps our focus on the downside. Initial support is at 115.23 ahead of 114.29.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
18th of May 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
18 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDJPY bull trigger at 81.85.
EURUSD BEARISH Bounce off from 1.4048 targets 1.4340; while this is intact, expect decline towards 1.4048/21 support area ahead of 1.3903.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Model has turned neutral; 81.85 and 80.34 mark the near-term directional triggers.
GBPUSD BEARISH Focus is on 1.6147/28 support zone, move below which would open 1.6091. Resistance lies at 1.6308.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Pressure on 0.8784; a break here would favor resumption of the bear trend. Near-term resistance is at 0.8951.
AUDUSD BEARISH Clearance of 1.0513 has exposed 1.0443. Resistance is at 1.0717.
USDCAD BULLISH Upside potential held at 0.9794 ahead of 0.9828/49 resistance area. Near-term support lies at 0.9684.
EURCHF BEARISH Focus is on 1.2485 ahead of 1.2433. Near-term resistance lies at 1.2614.
EURGBP BEARISH Break through 0.8674/55 support zone would open 0.8618. Resistance lies at 0.8800.
EURJPY BEARISH Initial support is at 113.42, move below this level would expose 113.00 key Fibonacci level. Near-term resistance is at 116.90.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
18 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDJPY bull trigger at 81.85.
EURUSD BEARISH Bounce off from 1.4048 targets 1.4340; while this is intact, expect decline towards 1.4048/21 support area ahead of 1.3903.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Model has turned neutral; 81.85 and 80.34 mark the near-term directional triggers.
GBPUSD BEARISH Focus is on 1.6147/28 support zone, move below which would open 1.6091. Resistance lies at 1.6308.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Pressure on 0.8784; a break here would favor resumption of the bear trend. Near-term resistance is at 0.8951.
AUDUSD BEARISH Clearance of 1.0513 has exposed 1.0443. Resistance is at 1.0717.
USDCAD BULLISH Upside potential held at 0.9794 ahead of 0.9828/49 resistance area. Near-term support lies at 0.9684.
EURCHF BEARISH Focus is on 1.2485 ahead of 1.2433. Near-term resistance lies at 1.2614.
EURGBP BEARISH Break through 0.8674/55 support zone would open 0.8618. Resistance lies at 0.8800.
EURJPY BEARISH Initial support is at 113.42, move below this level would expose 113.00 key Fibonacci level. Near-term resistance is at 116.90.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
18th of May 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
18 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar weakened during the Asia session, despite the general absence of news. EU Council President Von Rompuy may have played a role in the dollar's weakness however. He reminded markets that the greenback will likely lose its supreme reserve currency status in the distant future, noting that there will be a big change in the global FX landscape over the coming decades. EURUSD traded 1.4166-1.4287, USDJPY 80.98-81.59. Housing starts, building permits and industrial production all missed consensus estimates. US equities closed slightly lower after a mostly subdued session and Treasury yields farther out on the curve moved lower as well. Industrial production weakness could persist through Q2 as weakness in auto manufacturing is being attributed to parts shortages resulting from the Japanese earthquake. But we think the weakness should reverse later in the year. The upcoming FOMC minutes should not surprise too much given Fed Chairman Bernanke's first press conference but the minutes will nevertheless bear watching to judge individual opinions.
EUR
As expected, no final decisions on Greece were announced at the end of Tuesday's EcoFin meeting. However, Eurogroup Chairman Juncker implied that a 'soft restructuring' of Greek debt might eventually be considered, on condition that Greece agrees to implement further reforms, particularly in the area of privatisation of state assets. EU Commissioner Rehn also took a similar view. This is the first time such prominent EU officials have explicitly raised the possibility of restructuring. It should be noted however that German Chancellor Merkel and French Finance Minister Lagarde are still publicly opposed to the idea, as is the ECB.
The German ZEW survey came in below expectations at 3.1 vs consensus of 5. The current conditions rose to 91.5 vs 87.5 cons, 87.1.
GBP
UK headline CPI was much firmer than expected at +4.5% y/y (cons. +4.1%). This is the fastest rate of inflation since October 2008. More significantly, core inflation at +3.7% y/y is now higher than it has been at any time since records began in January 1997. Cable rallied 50 pips after the numbers.
The minutes from the May 5 BoE policy meeting are due. The text is not likely to yield much in the way of surprises, given the quarterly inflation report has already revealed an increased level of hawkishness on the MPC. However, it will be of interest to hear the latest views on how a balance should be struck between addressing waning growth on one hand, and persistent inflation on the other. Clearly any shift in the voting breakdown is likely to impact sterling.
Labour data is also due though most metrics are expected relatively unchanged.
AUD
Consumer confidence for May fell -1.3%, and wages in Q1 grew by a slower pace than expected, rising only +0.8% q/q (cons. +1.1%). Our Australian economics team notes that today's data reduces the pressure for a near-term rate hike, but they stick to their view that the RBA will likely next hike in August.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
18 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar weakened during the Asia session, despite the general absence of news. EU Council President Von Rompuy may have played a role in the dollar's weakness however. He reminded markets that the greenback will likely lose its supreme reserve currency status in the distant future, noting that there will be a big change in the global FX landscape over the coming decades. EURUSD traded 1.4166-1.4287, USDJPY 80.98-81.59. Housing starts, building permits and industrial production all missed consensus estimates. US equities closed slightly lower after a mostly subdued session and Treasury yields farther out on the curve moved lower as well. Industrial production weakness could persist through Q2 as weakness in auto manufacturing is being attributed to parts shortages resulting from the Japanese earthquake. But we think the weakness should reverse later in the year. The upcoming FOMC minutes should not surprise too much given Fed Chairman Bernanke's first press conference but the minutes will nevertheless bear watching to judge individual opinions.
EUR
As expected, no final decisions on Greece were announced at the end of Tuesday's EcoFin meeting. However, Eurogroup Chairman Juncker implied that a 'soft restructuring' of Greek debt might eventually be considered, on condition that Greece agrees to implement further reforms, particularly in the area of privatisation of state assets. EU Commissioner Rehn also took a similar view. This is the first time such prominent EU officials have explicitly raised the possibility of restructuring. It should be noted however that German Chancellor Merkel and French Finance Minister Lagarde are still publicly opposed to the idea, as is the ECB.
The German ZEW survey came in below expectations at 3.1 vs consensus of 5. The current conditions rose to 91.5 vs 87.5 cons, 87.1.
GBP
UK headline CPI was much firmer than expected at +4.5% y/y (cons. +4.1%). This is the fastest rate of inflation since October 2008. More significantly, core inflation at +3.7% y/y is now higher than it has been at any time since records began in January 1997. Cable rallied 50 pips after the numbers.
The minutes from the May 5 BoE policy meeting are due. The text is not likely to yield much in the way of surprises, given the quarterly inflation report has already revealed an increased level of hawkishness on the MPC. However, it will be of interest to hear the latest views on how a balance should be struck between addressing waning growth on one hand, and persistent inflation on the other. Clearly any shift in the voting breakdown is likely to impact sterling.
Labour data is also due though most metrics are expected relatively unchanged.
AUD
Consumer confidence for May fell -1.3%, and wages in Q1 grew by a slower pace than expected, rising only +0.8% q/q (cons. +1.1%). Our Australian economics team notes that today's data reduces the pressure for a near-term rate hike, but they stick to their view that the RBA will likely next hike in August.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
17th of May 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
17 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
AUDUSD 1.0513 key support.
EURUSD BEARISH Break through 1.4048/21 support area would pave the way for a move towards 1.3903. Resistance is at 1.4340.
USDJPY BEARISH The pair holds below 81.34; while this level is intact focus is on the downside with initial support at 80.34 ahead of 80.00.
GBPUSD BEARISH Initial support is at 1.6128 Fibonacci level, break of this would expose 1.6091. Near-term resistance is at 1.6308.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Support lies at 0.8784, while resistance is at 0.8951 ahead of 0.9012.
AUDUSD BEARISH Pressure on initial support 1.0513, only a break here would confirm the bear trend and expose 1.0443. Resistance is at 1.0717.
USDCAD BULLISH Recovery pressures 0.9772, key retracement level; break of the level would expose 0.9800 and 0.9849. Near-term support lies at 0.9684.
EURCHF BEARISH Focus has shifted to 1.2485 ahead of key support at 1.2433. Resistance is at 1.2614.
EURGBP BEARISH Support is at 0.8674/55 zone; break through this would open 0.8618. Resistance lies at 0.8800.
EURJPY BEARISH Break below 113.42 would expose 113.00 key Fibonacci level. Near-term resistance is at 115.63.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
17 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
AUDUSD 1.0513 key support.
EURUSD BEARISH Break through 1.4048/21 support area would pave the way for a move towards 1.3903. Resistance is at 1.4340.
USDJPY BEARISH The pair holds below 81.34; while this level is intact focus is on the downside with initial support at 80.34 ahead of 80.00.
GBPUSD BEARISH Initial support is at 1.6128 Fibonacci level, break of this would expose 1.6091. Near-term resistance is at 1.6308.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Support lies at 0.8784, while resistance is at 0.8951 ahead of 0.9012.
AUDUSD BEARISH Pressure on initial support 1.0513, only a break here would confirm the bear trend and expose 1.0443. Resistance is at 1.0717.
USDCAD BULLISH Recovery pressures 0.9772, key retracement level; break of the level would expose 0.9800 and 0.9849. Near-term support lies at 0.9684.
EURCHF BEARISH Focus has shifted to 1.2485 ahead of key support at 1.2433. Resistance is at 1.2614.
EURGBP BEARISH Support is at 0.8674/55 zone; break through this would open 0.8618. Resistance lies at 0.8800.
EURJPY BEARISH Break below 113.42 would expose 113.00 key Fibonacci level. Near-term resistance is at 115.63.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
17th of May 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
17 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar had a mixed session in Asia, rising against the yen, but weakening against the euro. The AUD was supported by hawkish RBA minutes, which signalled another rate hike is likely in the coming months. EURUSD traded in the 1.4130-1.4244 range, while USDJPY traded between 80.70 and 81.46. The US debt ceiling was reached yesterday as expected, but Treasury Secretary Geithner announced a "debt issuance suspension period" in a bid to avoid breaching the debt limit until August 2. The term is a misnomer - in fact, normal Treasury auctions will continue during this time, as the Treasury will free up some issuance capacity by changing procedures at two government sponsored retirement funds.
US equities closed down about 0.5% and Treasury yields in the longer-end of the curve moved lower. Data releases were limited to a disappointing Empire Manufacturing print and the latest TIC flows. There are some housing prints ahead along with industrial production but the dollar will likely react to developments elsewhere and broader market participant sentiment in general in the interim.
EUR
Eurozone finance ministers agreed to a rescue package for Portugal worth ?78 bn. As expected, no agreement was reached on what to do about Greece, and several officials again reiterated their wish to see the results of the EU/IMF's latest quarterly assessment before deciding on a course of action. The wider group of EU finance ministers are due to meet today, so two-way headline risk for the euro will remain elevated for another day at least.
Eurogroup Chairman Juncker said that Eurozone finance ministers are now very close agreeing on the legal text required to implement the ESM - the proposed rescue vehicle that is due to take over from the EFSF in July 2013. He added that discussions on Greece will be concluded in June.
Eurozone headline CPI was in-line with previous estimates at +2.8% y/y, well above the ECB's target of below but close to 2.0%. A 25bp ECB rate hike in July remains the base case of our European economists.
ECB Governing Council member Nowotny said if the economy continues on its present recovery track, then the ECB will need to act accordingly. He said the ECB has made it clear it wants to pursue a strategy to exit from crisis mode policies, and it would be problematic to wait too long for a policy normalisation.
For today's German ZEW survey, we expect an improvement in both economic sentiment and the current situation. A strong start to 2011 with an above-consensus Q1 GDP print has already allayed concerns on slowing momentum in the Eurozone. Nevertheless, we remain cautious on the euro in the medium-term given the persistent sovereign concerns and the impending end of QE2.
GBP
Today, we expect an unchanged CPI at +4.0% y/y vs. consensus +4.1%. The BoE already raised its inflation forecasts in its latest quarterly inflation report but a surprise jump in the level should keep rate hike expectations alive and benefit sterling. Our analysts expect the first rate hike in August.
AUD
The RBA minutes from the May 3 meeting were more hawkish than the policy statement itself. This reconciles the tone with the hawkish quarterly statement of monetary policy published three days later. Board members judged that "if economic conditions continued to evolve as expected, higher interest rates were likely to be required at some point". Consequently, although our Australian economists stick to their call for two more 25 bp hikes this year (in August and November), they now acknowledge the risk that the next hike could come even sooner.
The minutes also referred again to the strong AUD being a useful aid to containing inflation, and noted that AUD inflows from overseas reserve managers were partly responsible for the strong exchange rate.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
17 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar had a mixed session in Asia, rising against the yen, but weakening against the euro. The AUD was supported by hawkish RBA minutes, which signalled another rate hike is likely in the coming months. EURUSD traded in the 1.4130-1.4244 range, while USDJPY traded between 80.70 and 81.46. The US debt ceiling was reached yesterday as expected, but Treasury Secretary Geithner announced a "debt issuance suspension period" in a bid to avoid breaching the debt limit until August 2. The term is a misnomer - in fact, normal Treasury auctions will continue during this time, as the Treasury will free up some issuance capacity by changing procedures at two government sponsored retirement funds.
US equities closed down about 0.5% and Treasury yields in the longer-end of the curve moved lower. Data releases were limited to a disappointing Empire Manufacturing print and the latest TIC flows. There are some housing prints ahead along with industrial production but the dollar will likely react to developments elsewhere and broader market participant sentiment in general in the interim.
EUR
Eurozone finance ministers agreed to a rescue package for Portugal worth ?78 bn. As expected, no agreement was reached on what to do about Greece, and several officials again reiterated their wish to see the results of the EU/IMF's latest quarterly assessment before deciding on a course of action. The wider group of EU finance ministers are due to meet today, so two-way headline risk for the euro will remain elevated for another day at least.
Eurogroup Chairman Juncker said that Eurozone finance ministers are now very close agreeing on the legal text required to implement the ESM - the proposed rescue vehicle that is due to take over from the EFSF in July 2013. He added that discussions on Greece will be concluded in June.
Eurozone headline CPI was in-line with previous estimates at +2.8% y/y, well above the ECB's target of below but close to 2.0%. A 25bp ECB rate hike in July remains the base case of our European economists.
ECB Governing Council member Nowotny said if the economy continues on its present recovery track, then the ECB will need to act accordingly. He said the ECB has made it clear it wants to pursue a strategy to exit from crisis mode policies, and it would be problematic to wait too long for a policy normalisation.
For today's German ZEW survey, we expect an improvement in both economic sentiment and the current situation. A strong start to 2011 with an above-consensus Q1 GDP print has already allayed concerns on slowing momentum in the Eurozone. Nevertheless, we remain cautious on the euro in the medium-term given the persistent sovereign concerns and the impending end of QE2.
GBP
Today, we expect an unchanged CPI at +4.0% y/y vs. consensus +4.1%. The BoE already raised its inflation forecasts in its latest quarterly inflation report but a surprise jump in the level should keep rate hike expectations alive and benefit sterling. Our analysts expect the first rate hike in August.
AUD
The RBA minutes from the May 3 meeting were more hawkish than the policy statement itself. This reconciles the tone with the hawkish quarterly statement of monetary policy published three days later. Board members judged that "if economic conditions continued to evolve as expected, higher interest rates were likely to be required at some point". Consequently, although our Australian economists stick to their call for two more 25 bp hikes this year (in August and November), they now acknowledge the risk that the next hike could come even sooner.
The minutes also referred again to the strong AUD being a useful aid to containing inflation, and noted that AUD inflows from overseas reserve managers were partly responsible for the strong exchange rate.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Monday, May 16, 2011
16th of May 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
16 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD targets 1.4021.
EURUSD BEARISH Momentum is negative; the pair targets 1.4021 with next support at 1.3903. Resistance is at 1.4340.
USDJPY BEARISH While 81.85 continue to cap recoveries, a break below 80.34 would expose 80.00 and 79.57.
GBPUSD BEARISH Break of 1.6166 has exposed 1.6128 Fibonacci level. Near-term resistance is at 1.6308.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Recovery through 0.9000/12 would put odds in favor of a bull trend. Support lies at 0.8798.
AUDUSD NEUTRAL Break of 1.0537 has shifted our focus to 1.0513; a break below the level would trigger a bear trend. Resistance is at 1.0717.
USDCAD BULLISH Recovery through 0.9722 favors reversal. Next resistance is at 0.9772, while support is at 0.9600.
EURCHF BEARISH Initial support is at 1.2551, break of this would expose 1.2485. Resistance is at 1.2694.
EURGBP BEARISH Pressure on 0.8674/55 support zone; break through this would open 0.8618. Resistance lies at 0.8800.
EURJPY BEARISH Decline through 114.16 and 113.56 has opened up the way towards 113.00 key Fibonacci level. Resistance is at 115.54.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
16 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD targets 1.4021.
EURUSD BEARISH Momentum is negative; the pair targets 1.4021 with next support at 1.3903. Resistance is at 1.4340.
USDJPY BEARISH While 81.85 continue to cap recoveries, a break below 80.34 would expose 80.00 and 79.57.
GBPUSD BEARISH Break of 1.6166 has exposed 1.6128 Fibonacci level. Near-term resistance is at 1.6308.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Recovery through 0.9000/12 would put odds in favor of a bull trend. Support lies at 0.8798.
AUDUSD NEUTRAL Break of 1.0537 has shifted our focus to 1.0513; a break below the level would trigger a bear trend. Resistance is at 1.0717.
USDCAD BULLISH Recovery through 0.9722 favors reversal. Next resistance is at 0.9772, while support is at 0.9600.
EURCHF BEARISH Initial support is at 1.2551, break of this would expose 1.2485. Resistance is at 1.2694.
EURGBP BEARISH Pressure on 0.8674/55 support zone; break through this would open 0.8618. Resistance lies at 0.8800.
EURJPY BEARISH Decline through 114.16 and 113.56 has opened up the way towards 113.00 key Fibonacci level. Resistance is at 115.54.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
16th of May 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
FYI: Due to problems of Blogger, we were unable to post our daily analysis on friday.
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
16 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar stayed firm during the Asia session, and continued its advance against the euro, the yen, the AUD, and the NZD. EURUSD traded 1.4048-1.4107, USDJPY 80.64-81.07. There was little in the way of news from the open, but the weekend arrest of IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn is not helping sentiment, given the possible implications for today's meeting of Eurozone finance ministers. Asian equities are down approximately -1% at the time of writing, and gold is hovering near $1490/oz. The S&P 500 closed down -0.81% on Friday. On the data front, the underlying trend in US core CPI is still accelerating, which reinforces the view that the Fed will likely not extend QE2 beyond June. Core CPI for April rose in line with consensus expectations at +1.3% y/y (prev. +1.2%), setting the fastest pace since Feb. 2010. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index beat expectations, rising to 72.4 in May (cons. 70.0). The NY Fed released details of US participation in the recent bout of coordinated FX intervention which was designed to weaken the yen. US monetary authorities bought "$1 billion against Japanese yen" on March 18. This is substantially less than the $8.5 bn worth of USDJPY the Bank of Japan bought on the same date. The ECB does not reveal the size of its intervention operations, but the US contribution is certainly much greater than the quantity of yen sold by the Bank of Canada ($0.124 bn), and the Bank of England (GBP0.15 bn).
EUR
IMF Managing Director Strauss-Kahn was arrested and detained in New York on Saturday, and charged with several serious offences. The euro is likely to react negatively as his arrest injects a degree of uncertainty at a critical moment in the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. Specifically, Strauss-Kahn had planned to attend Monday's meeting of Eurozone finance ministers, where the terms of the Portugal rescue were due to be finalised.
The IMF announced that Deputy Managing Director Shafik will attend Monday's Eurogroup meeting instead of Strauss-Kahn. German Finance Minister Schaueble said the arrest will not affect discussions on Eurozone rescues. Schaeuble added that if Greece cannot return to markets next year, then further measures must be discussed.
ECB Governing Council member Nowotny said that an exit by Greece from the Eurozone would be "economic madness". ECB President Trichet described the notion of a Eurozone exit as an "absurd hypothesis", adding that Greece has "no other way" out of the crisis apart from consolidating its fiscal affairs.
Ireland's Prime Minister Kenny said Ireland "has no intention of defaulting".
Q1 GDP numbers were released across the Eurozone and were generally firmer than expected. The composite number came in at +0.8% q/q (cons. +0.6%). The standout number came from Germany, where Q1 GDP growth rose to +1.5% q/q (cons. +0.9%). On the other hand, Portugal entered a technical recession in Q1, with GDP down -0.7% q/q (cons. -0.3%). Given the ECB focuses largely on the performance of 'core' Eurozone economies, these numbers support the view of our European economists that the ECB will likely hike again in July.
The EU Commission revised up its inflation forecast and now sees Eurozone CPI at +2.6% y/y in 2011 (prev. +2.2%).
EFSF CEO Regling conceded that there is a possibility of solvency problems for Ireland, Greece and Portugal. He said private investors should be involved if these risks materialise.
AUD
Excluding re-financing, the value of outstanding housing finance fell -0.2 m/m in March, taking levels back down to where they were in November 2008. Our Australian economists acknowledge that this latest release adds to the generally disappointing data flow recently, but they stick to their view that the RBA is next likely to hike in August.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
16 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar stayed firm during the Asia session, and continued its advance against the euro, the yen, the AUD, and the NZD. EURUSD traded 1.4048-1.4107, USDJPY 80.64-81.07. There was little in the way of news from the open, but the weekend arrest of IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn is not helping sentiment, given the possible implications for today's meeting of Eurozone finance ministers. Asian equities are down approximately -1% at the time of writing, and gold is hovering near $1490/oz. The S&P 500 closed down -0.81% on Friday. On the data front, the underlying trend in US core CPI is still accelerating, which reinforces the view that the Fed will likely not extend QE2 beyond June. Core CPI for April rose in line with consensus expectations at +1.3% y/y (prev. +1.2%), setting the fastest pace since Feb. 2010. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index beat expectations, rising to 72.4 in May (cons. 70.0). The NY Fed released details of US participation in the recent bout of coordinated FX intervention which was designed to weaken the yen. US monetary authorities bought "$1 billion against Japanese yen" on March 18. This is substantially less than the $8.5 bn worth of USDJPY the Bank of Japan bought on the same date. The ECB does not reveal the size of its intervention operations, but the US contribution is certainly much greater than the quantity of yen sold by the Bank of Canada ($0.124 bn), and the Bank of England (GBP0.15 bn).
EUR
IMF Managing Director Strauss-Kahn was arrested and detained in New York on Saturday, and charged with several serious offences. The euro is likely to react negatively as his arrest injects a degree of uncertainty at a critical moment in the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. Specifically, Strauss-Kahn had planned to attend Monday's meeting of Eurozone finance ministers, where the terms of the Portugal rescue were due to be finalised.
The IMF announced that Deputy Managing Director Shafik will attend Monday's Eurogroup meeting instead of Strauss-Kahn. German Finance Minister Schaueble said the arrest will not affect discussions on Eurozone rescues. Schaeuble added that if Greece cannot return to markets next year, then further measures must be discussed.
ECB Governing Council member Nowotny said that an exit by Greece from the Eurozone would be "economic madness". ECB President Trichet described the notion of a Eurozone exit as an "absurd hypothesis", adding that Greece has "no other way" out of the crisis apart from consolidating its fiscal affairs.
Ireland's Prime Minister Kenny said Ireland "has no intention of defaulting".
Q1 GDP numbers were released across the Eurozone and were generally firmer than expected. The composite number came in at +0.8% q/q (cons. +0.6%). The standout number came from Germany, where Q1 GDP growth rose to +1.5% q/q (cons. +0.9%). On the other hand, Portugal entered a technical recession in Q1, with GDP down -0.7% q/q (cons. -0.3%). Given the ECB focuses largely on the performance of 'core' Eurozone economies, these numbers support the view of our European economists that the ECB will likely hike again in July.
The EU Commission revised up its inflation forecast and now sees Eurozone CPI at +2.6% y/y in 2011 (prev. +2.2%).
EFSF CEO Regling conceded that there is a possibility of solvency problems for Ireland, Greece and Portugal. He said private investors should be involved if these risks materialise.
AUD
Excluding re-financing, the value of outstanding housing finance fell -0.2 m/m in March, taking levels back down to where they were in November 2008. Our Australian economists acknowledge that this latest release adds to the generally disappointing data flow recently, but they stick to their view that the RBA is next likely to hike in August.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Thursday, May 12, 2011
12th of May 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
12 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD 1.4158 support
EURUSD BEARISH Decline through 1.4205 has exposed 1.4158. Resistance comes in at 1.4423.
USDJPY BEARISH As long as resistance at 81.85 holds, focus is on 80.00 beak of which would expose 79.57 and 78.83 next.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.6517, yesterday's reaction high, while support lies at 1.6271.
USDCHF BEARISH The pair remains heavy below 0.8893, keeping our focus on the downside. Initial support is at 0.8677 ahead of 0.8554.
AUDUSD BULLISH The pair pulled back through 1.0697 to expose 1.0537. Initial resistance is at 1.0889.
USDCAD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 0.9722, while support lies at 0.9505
EURCHF BEARISH Break below 1.2485 would expose 1.2433/03 support area. Near-term resistance lies at 1.2702.
EURGBP BEARISH Sharp decline through 0.8714/00 zone has exposed support at 0.8655 ahead of 0.8618. Near-term resistance is at 0.8800.
EURJPY BEARISH Violation of 114.80 has exposed 114.16 and 113.56. Resistance is at 116.90.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
12 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD 1.4158 support
EURUSD BEARISH Decline through 1.4205 has exposed 1.4158. Resistance comes in at 1.4423.
USDJPY BEARISH As long as resistance at 81.85 holds, focus is on 80.00 beak of which would expose 79.57 and 78.83 next.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.6517, yesterday's reaction high, while support lies at 1.6271.
USDCHF BEARISH The pair remains heavy below 0.8893, keeping our focus on the downside. Initial support is at 0.8677 ahead of 0.8554.
AUDUSD BULLISH The pair pulled back through 1.0697 to expose 1.0537. Initial resistance is at 1.0889.
USDCAD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 0.9722, while support lies at 0.9505
EURCHF BEARISH Break below 1.2485 would expose 1.2433/03 support area. Near-term resistance lies at 1.2702.
EURGBP BEARISH Sharp decline through 0.8714/00 zone has exposed support at 0.8655 ahead of 0.8618. Near-term resistance is at 0.8800.
EURJPY BEARISH Violation of 114.80 has exposed 114.16 and 113.56. Resistance is at 116.90.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
12th of May 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
12 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk appetite remained fragile during the Asia session as commodities and stocks failed to bounce following yesterday's selloff. A much weaker-than-expected Australian employment report further soured the mood. EURUSD traded 1.4172-1.4335, USDJPY 80.74-81.34. Yesterday, crude, gasoline, and heating oil futures were temporarily halted after hitting trading limits following a bearish Department of Energy inventory report. The dollar benefited from the resulting safe-haven demand, and has consolidated those gains overnight. The S&P 500 closed down -1.1%. Regional Fed Presidents Lacker, Lockhart and Kocherlakota spoke but largely reiterated their well known policy positions. Kocherlakota, however said he thinks the "extended period" language would be removed in the 2-4 meetings preceding the first tightening. The US trade balance widened a bit more than expected. Initial jobless claims and retail sales are due and Fed Chairman Bernanke will be one of several officials to testify on systemic risk before the Senate.
EUR
European officials appear to be moving closer to granting aid for Portugal. German coalition party officials proposed that Germany should approve the Portuguese rescue. Finnish Finance Minister Katainen said Finland also supports the rescue.
Newswires reported that German Chancellor Merkel 'could back' the candidacy of ECB Executive Board member Draghi to succeed ECB President Trichet when Trichet's term of office expires later this year.
ECB Executive Board member Stark said markets may not have fully understood what the ECB communicated last week and said "using code words does not mean a commitment." He also said current euro levels may help to contain inflation and warned that any potential Greek debt restructuring would not be a panacea.
Germany's final April CPI numbers were confirmed at 2.4% y/y, though the EU-Harmonised figure was nudged higher to 2.7% y/y.
GBP
As expected, the BoE revised upwards its inflation forecast, and nudged lower its GDP revisions in the quarterly inflation report. Our economists note that their forecasts suggest inflation risks remain skewed to the upside. BoE Governor King said that although he cannot say when the bank rate will be increased, it would need to rise "at some point", and added that a rate hike rather than asset sales would be the first tightening move.
AUD
As expected, the BoE revised upwards its inflation forecast, and nudged lower its GDP revisions in the quarterly inflation report. Our economists note that their forecasts suggest inflation risks remain skewed to the upside. BoE Governor King said that although he cannot say when the bank rate will be increased, it would need to rise "at some point", and added that a rate hike rather than asset sales would be the first tightening move.
CAD
Finance Minister Flaherty said that interest rates are going to go up eventually and he does not believe in a weak Canadian currency.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
12 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk appetite remained fragile during the Asia session as commodities and stocks failed to bounce following yesterday's selloff. A much weaker-than-expected Australian employment report further soured the mood. EURUSD traded 1.4172-1.4335, USDJPY 80.74-81.34. Yesterday, crude, gasoline, and heating oil futures were temporarily halted after hitting trading limits following a bearish Department of Energy inventory report. The dollar benefited from the resulting safe-haven demand, and has consolidated those gains overnight. The S&P 500 closed down -1.1%. Regional Fed Presidents Lacker, Lockhart and Kocherlakota spoke but largely reiterated their well known policy positions. Kocherlakota, however said he thinks the "extended period" language would be removed in the 2-4 meetings preceding the first tightening. The US trade balance widened a bit more than expected. Initial jobless claims and retail sales are due and Fed Chairman Bernanke will be one of several officials to testify on systemic risk before the Senate.
EUR
European officials appear to be moving closer to granting aid for Portugal. German coalition party officials proposed that Germany should approve the Portuguese rescue. Finnish Finance Minister Katainen said Finland also supports the rescue.
Newswires reported that German Chancellor Merkel 'could back' the candidacy of ECB Executive Board member Draghi to succeed ECB President Trichet when Trichet's term of office expires later this year.
ECB Executive Board member Stark said markets may not have fully understood what the ECB communicated last week and said "using code words does not mean a commitment." He also said current euro levels may help to contain inflation and warned that any potential Greek debt restructuring would not be a panacea.
Germany's final April CPI numbers were confirmed at 2.4% y/y, though the EU-Harmonised figure was nudged higher to 2.7% y/y.
GBP
As expected, the BoE revised upwards its inflation forecast, and nudged lower its GDP revisions in the quarterly inflation report. Our economists note that their forecasts suggest inflation risks remain skewed to the upside. BoE Governor King said that although he cannot say when the bank rate will be increased, it would need to rise "at some point", and added that a rate hike rather than asset sales would be the first tightening move.
AUD
As expected, the BoE revised upwards its inflation forecast, and nudged lower its GDP revisions in the quarterly inflation report. Our economists note that their forecasts suggest inflation risks remain skewed to the upside. BoE Governor King said that although he cannot say when the bank rate will be increased, it would need to rise "at some point", and added that a rate hike rather than asset sales would be the first tightening move.
CAD
Finance Minister Flaherty said that interest rates are going to go up eventually and he does not believe in a weak Canadian currency.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
11th of May 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
11 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURGBP 0.8714/00 support.
EURUSD NEUTRAL Initial resistance is at 1.4442, while support comes in at 1.4205 ahead of 1.4158.
USDJPY BEARISH A break below 80.00 would expose 79.57 and 78.83 next. Resistance is at 81.28.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL While resistance at 1.6464 holds, focus on initial support at 1.6271.
USDCHF BEARISH The pair remains heavy below 0.8893, keeping our focus on the downside. Initial support is at 0.8677 ahead of 0.8554.
AUDUSD BULLISH Break above 1.0878 would expose 1.0953 next. Support lies at 1.0697.
USDCAD NEUTRAL Initial resistance is at 0.9654, while support lies at 0.9505.
EURCHF BEARISH The cross bounced back through 1.2653 to expose 1.2748. Initial support lies at 1.2485.
EURGBP BEARISH Support is at 0.8714/00 zone, break of which would open 0.8655. Near-term resistance is at 0.8818.
EURJPY BEARISH Break through 114.80/16 area would signal scope for further downside towards 113.56. Initial resistance is at 117.60.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
11 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURGBP 0.8714/00 support.
EURUSD NEUTRAL Initial resistance is at 1.4442, while support comes in at 1.4205 ahead of 1.4158.
USDJPY BEARISH A break below 80.00 would expose 79.57 and 78.83 next. Resistance is at 81.28.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL While resistance at 1.6464 holds, focus on initial support at 1.6271.
USDCHF BEARISH The pair remains heavy below 0.8893, keeping our focus on the downside. Initial support is at 0.8677 ahead of 0.8554.
AUDUSD BULLISH Break above 1.0878 would expose 1.0953 next. Support lies at 1.0697.
USDCAD NEUTRAL Initial resistance is at 0.9654, while support lies at 0.9505.
EURCHF BEARISH The cross bounced back through 1.2653 to expose 1.2748. Initial support lies at 1.2485.
EURGBP BEARISH Support is at 0.8714/00 zone, break of which would open 0.8655. Near-term resistance is at 0.8818.
EURJPY BEARISH Break through 114.80/16 area would signal scope for further downside towards 113.56. Initial resistance is at 117.60.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
11th of May 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
11 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Rising commodity prices and stronger equity markets gave risk appetite a boost during the Asia session. The combined effect was powerful enough to keep AUDUSD largely supported, despite some rather mixed Chinese data for April. Higher oil prices in particular helped the euro to recover some ground recently lost to the dollar, although speculation that a new Greece rescue package may eventually be announced also helped embolden euro bulls. EURUSD traded 1.4350-1.4423, USDJPY 80.72-81.09. Richmond Fed President Lacker, a 2012 FOMC voter, said it is too soon to determine whether the Fed should pause or rush to tighten after QE2 ends, but he did say that it is better to be ahead of the curve on inflation. US economic data releases were again minimal yesterday, but three Fed speakers are due later today, along with US trade data.
EUR
French Finance Minister Lagarde said it is difficult to envisage Greece returning to markets in 2012. This should be seen as an admission that Greece will likely need further financial assistance, as the original plan agreed in May 2010 assumed Greece would issue fresh debt from 2012. However, Lagarde stressed that no decision has yet been taken on the amount, or indeed the nature, of any supplementary aid for Greece. She also ruled out a restructuring of Greek debt "in all its forms".
EU Commissioner Rehn said any speculation on a new aid package for Greece is premature, though he did expect some discussions and decisions on the matter over the coming weeks. German Finance Minister Schaeuble reportedly said there would not be a decision on further Greek aid until the EU/IMF/ECB issue their latest quarterly assessment which is due to be published in June.
According to Reuters, an unnamed German government source said EU finance ministers are discussing a re-profiling of the Greek rescue loan. Slovakian Prime Minister Radicova said some form of debt restructuring is inevitable at some point for Greece.
Moving to Portugal, Rehn said he expects the interest rate applied to Portugal's rescue package would be between 5.5-6.0%. This is similar to that already charged on Ireland's loan agreement. Rehn added that he expects EU finance ministers, including the representative from Finland, to give their approval to a Portuguese program next week. A clearing house raised margin requirements on Portuguese sovereign bonds to 45% from 35% for long positions.
GBP
The BoE's quarterly inflation report is due. Our UK economist expects the MPC to lower its GDP growth forecast, to raise its forecast for inflation, and to keep alive the possibility of an August rate hike. However, the currency reaction is more likely to be driven by Governor King's interpretation of the report at this morning's press conference. In the past, his verbal assessment has tended to be more dovish than the projections in the report imply, and this has previously led to sterling weakness.
Chancellor Osborne said the government's fiscal strategy gives the BoE more leeway "to keep rates lower for longer," which caused a brief pullback in cable.
AUD
The AUD was briefly hurt by the latest batch of Chinese economic data, which showed April CPI a little stronger than expected at +5.3% y/y (cons. +5.2%). Investors took the view that this raises the risk of further policy tightening from the PBoC, potentially reducing the demand for Australian exports.
NZD
RBNZ Governor Bollard said the NZD is undesirably strong and that a fall in its value would assist in rebalancing the economy. Clearly the RBNZ remains wary of NZD strength, although the bank and the Finance Ministry have stopped short of threatening to take any corrective action.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
11 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Rising commodity prices and stronger equity markets gave risk appetite a boost during the Asia session. The combined effect was powerful enough to keep AUDUSD largely supported, despite some rather mixed Chinese data for April. Higher oil prices in particular helped the euro to recover some ground recently lost to the dollar, although speculation that a new Greece rescue package may eventually be announced also helped embolden euro bulls. EURUSD traded 1.4350-1.4423, USDJPY 80.72-81.09. Richmond Fed President Lacker, a 2012 FOMC voter, said it is too soon to determine whether the Fed should pause or rush to tighten after QE2 ends, but he did say that it is better to be ahead of the curve on inflation. US economic data releases were again minimal yesterday, but three Fed speakers are due later today, along with US trade data.
EUR
French Finance Minister Lagarde said it is difficult to envisage Greece returning to markets in 2012. This should be seen as an admission that Greece will likely need further financial assistance, as the original plan agreed in May 2010 assumed Greece would issue fresh debt from 2012. However, Lagarde stressed that no decision has yet been taken on the amount, or indeed the nature, of any supplementary aid for Greece. She also ruled out a restructuring of Greek debt "in all its forms".
EU Commissioner Rehn said any speculation on a new aid package for Greece is premature, though he did expect some discussions and decisions on the matter over the coming weeks. German Finance Minister Schaeuble reportedly said there would not be a decision on further Greek aid until the EU/IMF/ECB issue their latest quarterly assessment which is due to be published in June.
According to Reuters, an unnamed German government source said EU finance ministers are discussing a re-profiling of the Greek rescue loan. Slovakian Prime Minister Radicova said some form of debt restructuring is inevitable at some point for Greece.
Moving to Portugal, Rehn said he expects the interest rate applied to Portugal's rescue package would be between 5.5-6.0%. This is similar to that already charged on Ireland's loan agreement. Rehn added that he expects EU finance ministers, including the representative from Finland, to give their approval to a Portuguese program next week. A clearing house raised margin requirements on Portuguese sovereign bonds to 45% from 35% for long positions.
GBP
The BoE's quarterly inflation report is due. Our UK economist expects the MPC to lower its GDP growth forecast, to raise its forecast for inflation, and to keep alive the possibility of an August rate hike. However, the currency reaction is more likely to be driven by Governor King's interpretation of the report at this morning's press conference. In the past, his verbal assessment has tended to be more dovish than the projections in the report imply, and this has previously led to sterling weakness.
Chancellor Osborne said the government's fiscal strategy gives the BoE more leeway "to keep rates lower for longer," which caused a brief pullback in cable.
AUD
The AUD was briefly hurt by the latest batch of Chinese economic data, which showed April CPI a little stronger than expected at +5.3% y/y (cons. +5.2%). Investors took the view that this raises the risk of further policy tightening from the PBoC, potentially reducing the demand for Australian exports.
NZD
RBNZ Governor Bollard said the NZD is undesirably strong and that a fall in its value would assist in rebalancing the economy. Clearly the RBNZ remains wary of NZD strength, although the bank and the Finance Ministry have stopped short of threatening to take any corrective action.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
10th of May 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
10 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURCHF focus on 1.2433/03.
EURUSD NEUTRAL Focus on initial support at 1.4205, break of this would expose 1.4158/48 area. Initial resistance is at 1.4442.
USDJPY BEARISH The pair is consolidating above 80.00; break of this would expose 79.57 and 78.83 next. Resistance is at 81.28.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Initial support is at 1.6271, yesterday's reaction low, while resistance lies at 1.6464.
USDCHF BEARISH While resistance at 0.8893 holds, focus is on initial support 0.8677 ahead of 0.8554/00 area.
AUDUSD NEUTRAL Rise above 1.0878 would signal resumption of the bull trend and expose 1.0953. Support lies at 1.0697 ahead of 1.0537.
USDCAD NEUTRAL Stalled below 0.9722 resistance; a break here would trigger positive tone. Near-term support lies at 0.9569.
EURCHF BEARISH Momentum is negative; focus on 1.2433/03 support area, while resistance is at 1.2653.
EURGBP BEARISH Break through 0.8714/00 support zone would expose 0.8655. Near-term resistance is at 0.8818.
EURJPY BEARISH Sustained break through 115.00 would open up the way towards 114.16 and 113.56. Initial resistance is at 116.48.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
10 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURCHF focus on 1.2433/03.
EURUSD NEUTRAL Focus on initial support at 1.4205, break of this would expose 1.4158/48 area. Initial resistance is at 1.4442.
USDJPY BEARISH The pair is consolidating above 80.00; break of this would expose 79.57 and 78.83 next. Resistance is at 81.28.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Initial support is at 1.6271, yesterday's reaction low, while resistance lies at 1.6464.
USDCHF BEARISH While resistance at 0.8893 holds, focus is on initial support 0.8677 ahead of 0.8554/00 area.
AUDUSD NEUTRAL Rise above 1.0878 would signal resumption of the bull trend and expose 1.0953. Support lies at 1.0697 ahead of 1.0537.
USDCAD NEUTRAL Stalled below 0.9722 resistance; a break here would trigger positive tone. Near-term support lies at 0.9569.
EURCHF BEARISH Momentum is negative; focus on 1.2433/03 support area, while resistance is at 1.2653.
EURGBP BEARISH Break through 0.8714/00 support zone would expose 0.8655. Near-term resistance is at 0.8818.
EURJPY BEARISH Sustained break through 115.00 would open up the way towards 114.16 and 113.56. Initial resistance is at 116.48.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
10th of May 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
10 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Australian and Chinese trade data were focal points during the Asia session. Both sets of numbers were impressive, which proved to be mildly supportive of risk appetite. The euro struggled to make much headway though, still weighed down by the memory of yesterday's downgrade of Greece's rating by S&P. Comments by ECB policymakers warning of the dire consequences of any restructuring of Greek debt led the euro lower as the European session got underway. EURUSD traded 1.4297-1.4377, USDJPY 80.16-80.57. US stocks closed marginally ahead, and Asian equities are modestly stronger at the time of writing. There were no major US data releases yesterday and none are scheduled for today either. Richmond Fed President Lacker (a 2012 voter) said it is "conceivable" that the FOMC might need to raise the policy rate before the end of the year. He also seemed reluctant to continue asset purchases beyond the end of June, noting that monetary policy is not capable of enhancing employment growth in any further sustainable, and measurable way..
EUR
ECB Governing Council member Nowotny said the international community has underestimated Greece's problems, but that debt restructuring must still be ruled out.
ECB Executive Board member Bini-Smaghi said that a restructuring of Greek debt would bring the banking system to its knees, and that any Greek disaster would prove to be contagious for the whole Eurozone.
S&P downgraded its rating on Greece to B (from BB-) and kept it on watch negative, citing the risk that Greek debt might be restructured. However, S&P did say they did not believe any member of the Eurozone would leave the currency union.
Ireland's Prime Minister Kenny said the interest rate charged on EU/IMF rescue loans to Ireland might be cut at the next meeting of finance ministers.
The incoming central bank governor of Malta, Bonnici, said "at this stage I tend to lean a bit on the hawkish side". Bonnici also said that the elevated euro could become a hindrance for some industries.
CHF
April CPI is due in Switzerland. Eurozone sovereign woes pushed EURCHF lower in recent days and any upside surprise would likely add to pressure on the cross by ratcheting up SNB rate hike expectations.
AUD
Australia's trade surplus for March was over three times stronger than consensus, coming in at A$1.74 bn (cons. $0.5 bn). AUDUSD jumped 25 pips on the headline.
NZD
The NZD weakened after the IMF's Article IV review of the New Zealand economy noted that the NZD was 5-20% overvalued on a trade-weighted basis.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
10 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Australian and Chinese trade data were focal points during the Asia session. Both sets of numbers were impressive, which proved to be mildly supportive of risk appetite. The euro struggled to make much headway though, still weighed down by the memory of yesterday's downgrade of Greece's rating by S&P. Comments by ECB policymakers warning of the dire consequences of any restructuring of Greek debt led the euro lower as the European session got underway. EURUSD traded 1.4297-1.4377, USDJPY 80.16-80.57. US stocks closed marginally ahead, and Asian equities are modestly stronger at the time of writing. There were no major US data releases yesterday and none are scheduled for today either. Richmond Fed President Lacker (a 2012 voter) said it is "conceivable" that the FOMC might need to raise the policy rate before the end of the year. He also seemed reluctant to continue asset purchases beyond the end of June, noting that monetary policy is not capable of enhancing employment growth in any further sustainable, and measurable way..
EUR
ECB Governing Council member Nowotny said the international community has underestimated Greece's problems, but that debt restructuring must still be ruled out.
ECB Executive Board member Bini-Smaghi said that a restructuring of Greek debt would bring the banking system to its knees, and that any Greek disaster would prove to be contagious for the whole Eurozone.
S&P downgraded its rating on Greece to B (from BB-) and kept it on watch negative, citing the risk that Greek debt might be restructured. However, S&P did say they did not believe any member of the Eurozone would leave the currency union.
Ireland's Prime Minister Kenny said the interest rate charged on EU/IMF rescue loans to Ireland might be cut at the next meeting of finance ministers.
The incoming central bank governor of Malta, Bonnici, said "at this stage I tend to lean a bit on the hawkish side". Bonnici also said that the elevated euro could become a hindrance for some industries.
CHF
April CPI is due in Switzerland. Eurozone sovereign woes pushed EURCHF lower in recent days and any upside surprise would likely add to pressure on the cross by ratcheting up SNB rate hike expectations.
AUD
Australia's trade surplus for March was over three times stronger than consensus, coming in at A$1.74 bn (cons. $0.5 bn). AUDUSD jumped 25 pips on the headline.
NZD
The NZD weakened after the IMF's Article IV review of the New Zealand economy noted that the NZD was 5-20% overvalued on a trade-weighted basis.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
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