DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
30 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURCHF 1.2147 key resistance.
EURUSD BULLISH Clearance of 1.4498 signals potential for further gains towards 1.4697. Initial support is at 1.4333.
USDJPY BEARISH As long as resistance at 82.21 is intact, expect decline towards 79.70 and 79.57. Near-term resistance is at 81.27.
GBPUSD BEARISH Break of 1.5911 would expose 1.5881 Fibonacci support. Resistance is at 1.6263.
USDCHF BEARISH Watch support at 0.8276, a break below which would leave little support till 0.8165. Initial resistance is at 0.8439.
AUDUSD BULLISH Following the recovery through 1.0726, the pair now targets 1.0775. A break here would open 1.0889. Support lies at 1.0520.
USDCAD NEUTRAL Break of 0.9671 has exposed 0.9641, while near-0term resistance is at 0.9825.
EURCHF BEARISH Key resistance is at 1.2147; while this holds, expect decline towards 1.1925 and 1.1806.
EURGBP BULLISH Rise through 0.9000 has paved the way for gains to 0.9043, the key level. Support lies at 0.8928.
EURJPY NEUTRAL The near-term directional triggers are at 117.90 and 115.13.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
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Thursday, June 30, 2011
30th of June 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
30 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Asian equities and risk assets are trading higher as an improved risk environment continues from yesterday. EURUSD broke above the 1.45 mark, building on its gains following yesterday's Greek austerity vote, while the dollar was soft across the board. The news wires were quiet and markets continue to trade on wider risk appetite. EURUSD traded 1.4519-1.4416, USDJPY 80.93-80.31. The focus remains on the Eurozone where a strong CPI estimate is likely to keep the euro supported in the short term, as interest shifts to the upcoming ECB meeting, where around an 80% chance of a hike is priced into markets. In Greece, another parliamentary vote is due, to pass legislation to enact the austerity measures. We also expect this vote to pass.
EUR
The euro continues to push higher following yesterday's vote. Yesterday saw choppy trading conditions as the Greek parliament voted on the latest package of austerity measures. Individual votes were announced as soon as they were cast, and levels of concern rose sharply when one ruling party parliamentarian voted again the proposals. However, the vote was ultimately carried by 155 votes to 138.
Minutes later the euro fell after Germany's economy minister declared that the vote in itself would not be enough, and that appropriate private sector involvement may be needed.
German Chancellor Merkel said the positive vote outcome is an important step for stabilising the euro. ECB Governing Council member Orphanides however warned that the debt crisis still remains in "quite dangerous territory". ECB's Nowotny said that a Greek default would be much more painful than the austerity drive.
Another parliamentary vote is due to be held on Thursday. The aim of the second vote is to pass the legislation needed to enact the austerity measures which have just been voted through. We also expect this vote to pass, although we acknowledge that the risk of failure has grown after Prime Minister Papandreou's decision to expel the dissenting deputy from the parliamentary party, leaving Papandreou with an even slimmer majority of only 154/300.
EU Council President Von Rompuy, and EU Commission President Barroso declared that Thursday's vote would pave the way for the release of Greece's next quarterly tranche of cash.
GBP
UK GfK consumer confidence fell to -25 in June, slightly lower than consensus. The result in May was largely related to improved weather and extra bank holidays so this print is sa return to trend. The retail sector in the UK remains very subdued.
CHF
The Swiss Economy Minister Schneider-Ammann said that it is not the government's responsibility to deal with the strong franc, and that he is confident that exporters will be able to cope with the strong currency. He warned that the franc's strength is not a 'temporary phenomenon' and that the 'strong franc will persist'.
CAD
Canadian inflation numbers for May came in much stronger than expected. This piled additional downward pressure on USDCAD at a time when the pair had already been drifting lower due to the favourable risk-on environment. Headline CPI was +3.7% y/y (cons. +3.3% y/y), while the core number also printed well above consensus at +1.8% y/y (+1.5% y/y).
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
30 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Asian equities and risk assets are trading higher as an improved risk environment continues from yesterday. EURUSD broke above the 1.45 mark, building on its gains following yesterday's Greek austerity vote, while the dollar was soft across the board. The news wires were quiet and markets continue to trade on wider risk appetite. EURUSD traded 1.4519-1.4416, USDJPY 80.93-80.31. The focus remains on the Eurozone where a strong CPI estimate is likely to keep the euro supported in the short term, as interest shifts to the upcoming ECB meeting, where around an 80% chance of a hike is priced into markets. In Greece, another parliamentary vote is due, to pass legislation to enact the austerity measures. We also expect this vote to pass.
EUR
The euro continues to push higher following yesterday's vote. Yesterday saw choppy trading conditions as the Greek parliament voted on the latest package of austerity measures. Individual votes were announced as soon as they were cast, and levels of concern rose sharply when one ruling party parliamentarian voted again the proposals. However, the vote was ultimately carried by 155 votes to 138.
Minutes later the euro fell after Germany's economy minister declared that the vote in itself would not be enough, and that appropriate private sector involvement may be needed.
German Chancellor Merkel said the positive vote outcome is an important step for stabilising the euro. ECB Governing Council member Orphanides however warned that the debt crisis still remains in "quite dangerous territory". ECB's Nowotny said that a Greek default would be much more painful than the austerity drive.
Another parliamentary vote is due to be held on Thursday. The aim of the second vote is to pass the legislation needed to enact the austerity measures which have just been voted through. We also expect this vote to pass, although we acknowledge that the risk of failure has grown after Prime Minister Papandreou's decision to expel the dissenting deputy from the parliamentary party, leaving Papandreou with an even slimmer majority of only 154/300.
EU Council President Von Rompuy, and EU Commission President Barroso declared that Thursday's vote would pave the way for the release of Greece's next quarterly tranche of cash.
GBP
UK GfK consumer confidence fell to -25 in June, slightly lower than consensus. The result in May was largely related to improved weather and extra bank holidays so this print is sa return to trend. The retail sector in the UK remains very subdued.
CHF
The Swiss Economy Minister Schneider-Ammann said that it is not the government's responsibility to deal with the strong franc, and that he is confident that exporters will be able to cope with the strong currency. He warned that the franc's strength is not a 'temporary phenomenon' and that the 'strong franc will persist'.
CAD
Canadian inflation numbers for May came in much stronger than expected. This piled additional downward pressure on USDCAD at a time when the pair had already been drifting lower due to the favourable risk-on environment. Headline CPI was +3.7% y/y (cons. +3.3% y/y), while the core number also printed well above consensus at +1.8% y/y (+1.5% y/y).
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
29th of June 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
29 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDJPY 81.33 Resistance
EURUSD NEUTRAL The move above 1.4358 has turned the model to neutral and exposed resistance at 1.4442. Initial support is at 1.4237.
USDJPY BULLISH The break above 81.06 has paved the way for gains towards 81.33 ahead of 81.77. Initial support lies at 80.66.
GBPUSD BEARISH Initial support is at 1.5911; potential for further weakness towards 1.5881. Resistance is at 1.6075.
USDCHF BEARISH Momentum is negative; focus on support at 0.8165, while resistance holds at 0.8439.
AUDUSD BEARISH Focus is on initial support at 1.0436, a move below which would open 1.0390. Resistance is at 1.0601.
USDCAD BULLISH A break above 0.9885 would open up 0.9913, the key level. Initial support is at 0.9771.
EURCHF BEARISH Watch support at 1.1806, breach of which would signal further losses towards 1.1721 and 1.1684. Initial resistance lies at 1.2000.
EURGBP BULLISH Clearance of 0.8976 has put focus on 0.9000 ahead of 0.9043. Support lies at 0.8928.
EURJPY NEUTRAL The recovery through 116.47 has opened up resistance at 116.87 ahead of 117.47. Initial support lies at 115.13.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
29 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDJPY 81.33 Resistance
EURUSD NEUTRAL The move above 1.4358 has turned the model to neutral and exposed resistance at 1.4442. Initial support is at 1.4237.
USDJPY BULLISH The break above 81.06 has paved the way for gains towards 81.33 ahead of 81.77. Initial support lies at 80.66.
GBPUSD BEARISH Initial support is at 1.5911; potential for further weakness towards 1.5881. Resistance is at 1.6075.
USDCHF BEARISH Momentum is negative; focus on support at 0.8165, while resistance holds at 0.8439.
AUDUSD BEARISH Focus is on initial support at 1.0436, a move below which would open 1.0390. Resistance is at 1.0601.
USDCAD BULLISH A break above 0.9885 would open up 0.9913, the key level. Initial support is at 0.9771.
EURCHF BEARISH Watch support at 1.1806, breach of which would signal further losses towards 1.1721 and 1.1684. Initial resistance lies at 1.2000.
EURGBP BULLISH Clearance of 0.8976 has put focus on 0.9000 ahead of 0.9043. Support lies at 0.8928.
EURJPY NEUTRAL The recovery through 116.47 has opened up resistance at 116.87 ahead of 117.47. Initial support lies at 115.13.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
29th of June 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
29 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Greece's parliament is expected to vote on the austerity package later today (expected around 1200 GMT), with the implementation vote due tomorrow. Although there is still considerable uncertainty over the vote, markets expect it to pass and authorities are now trying to push for the private sector to finalise its participation plans. Overnight sentiment was hurt somewhat by talk of further China tightening but at this stage we believe most global central banks are in a more cautious mode. Yesterday, global equities had a good day, with the S&P 500 closing up 1.3% and Asian exchanges are also doing well in overnight trading. In other news, France's Finance Minister Lagarde was officially appointed IMF Managing Director, and is due to take up her new post on July 5. US consumer confidence came in significantly weaker than expected, falling to 58.5 in June (cons. 61.0). Yesterday, Dallas Fed President Fisher, a 2011 FOMC-voter and a well known hawk, did not seem to be in any hurry to tighten monetary policy. He said the current policy setting is 'just about right' but that some monetary accommodation would need to be removed once the economy picks up. He forecast that GDP growth would likely accelerate to an annualised rate of between 3 and 4% in the second half of the year. Ahead today, Canadian CPI is out, in addition to KoF leading indicator out of Switzerland.
EUR
The euro recovered much of its recent losses as optimism began to build ahead of Wednesday's parliamentary vote in Greece. Headlines were few, but it was reported that one of the wavering members of Greece's ruling party would now vote in favour of the austerity measures. The vote is expected to be completed at around 12:00 GMT.
ECB Executive Board member Stark said he sees an end to Greek aid after July if the austerity plan is not approved. He said there is only a 'Plan A' for Greece, and no alternative plan exists.
France's Finance Minister Lagarde said Greece leaving the euro would be the worst case scenario and it must be avoided.
Italian newspaper Repubblica reported that Italy's finance minister, Tremonti may quit over the national budget. The paper also says that ECB Executive Board member Bini Smaghi may replace him.
GBP
Several BoE policymakers testified before a parliamentary committee and the tone was very dovish. A resumption of the QE program was mentioned several times as a possible future policy option. Even MPC member Dale, who is a dissenting voter in the hawkish camp, did not rule out more QE. Governor King mentioned low wage pressures and an elevated spread in bank lending rates as justification for a continuation of the current policy of low rates.
Q1 GDP was revised down to +1.6% y/y from +1.8% y/y, after Q3 2010 GDP was downgraded. Ahead today, money supply data and other credit barometers will be out.
CAD
Canadian inflation numbers are due today and markets are looking for another 0.3%m/m jump to push the headline rate up to 3.3%. Core inflation is also expected to rise by 0.2% to 1.5%. These are indeed levels where the BoC may need to think about tightening again and we continue to expect CAD to find support on the crosses.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
29 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Greece's parliament is expected to vote on the austerity package later today (expected around 1200 GMT), with the implementation vote due tomorrow. Although there is still considerable uncertainty over the vote, markets expect it to pass and authorities are now trying to push for the private sector to finalise its participation plans. Overnight sentiment was hurt somewhat by talk of further China tightening but at this stage we believe most global central banks are in a more cautious mode. Yesterday, global equities had a good day, with the S&P 500 closing up 1.3% and Asian exchanges are also doing well in overnight trading. In other news, France's Finance Minister Lagarde was officially appointed IMF Managing Director, and is due to take up her new post on July 5. US consumer confidence came in significantly weaker than expected, falling to 58.5 in June (cons. 61.0). Yesterday, Dallas Fed President Fisher, a 2011 FOMC-voter and a well known hawk, did not seem to be in any hurry to tighten monetary policy. He said the current policy setting is 'just about right' but that some monetary accommodation would need to be removed once the economy picks up. He forecast that GDP growth would likely accelerate to an annualised rate of between 3 and 4% in the second half of the year. Ahead today, Canadian CPI is out, in addition to KoF leading indicator out of Switzerland.
EUR
The euro recovered much of its recent losses as optimism began to build ahead of Wednesday's parliamentary vote in Greece. Headlines were few, but it was reported that one of the wavering members of Greece's ruling party would now vote in favour of the austerity measures. The vote is expected to be completed at around 12:00 GMT.
ECB Executive Board member Stark said he sees an end to Greek aid after July if the austerity plan is not approved. He said there is only a 'Plan A' for Greece, and no alternative plan exists.
France's Finance Minister Lagarde said Greece leaving the euro would be the worst case scenario and it must be avoided.
Italian newspaper Repubblica reported that Italy's finance minister, Tremonti may quit over the national budget. The paper also says that ECB Executive Board member Bini Smaghi may replace him.
GBP
Several BoE policymakers testified before a parliamentary committee and the tone was very dovish. A resumption of the QE program was mentioned several times as a possible future policy option. Even MPC member Dale, who is a dissenting voter in the hawkish camp, did not rule out more QE. Governor King mentioned low wage pressures and an elevated spread in bank lending rates as justification for a continuation of the current policy of low rates.
Q1 GDP was revised down to +1.6% y/y from +1.8% y/y, after Q3 2010 GDP was downgraded. Ahead today, money supply data and other credit barometers will be out.
CAD
Canadian inflation numbers are due today and markets are looking for another 0.3%m/m jump to push the headline rate up to 3.3%. Core inflation is also expected to rise by 0.2% to 1.5%. These are indeed levels where the BoC may need to think about tightening again and we continue to expect CAD to find support on the crosses.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
28th of June 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
28 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURGBP clears 0.8952
EURUSD BEARISH Initial support is at 1.4103, a move below which would expose 1.4074, the key level. Resistance is at 1.4358.
USDJPY NEUTRAL A move above 81.06 would develop positive momentum and open the way to 81.33. Initial support lies at 80.29.
GBPUSD BEARISH While resistance at 1.6075 holds, there is potential for weakness towards 1.5914 and 1.5881.
USDCHF BEARISH Scope for further downside towards 0.8300 ahead of 0.8165. Resistance lies at 0.8463.
AUDUSD BEARISH Initial support lies at 1.0390, a decline through which would expose 1.0359. Resistance is at 1.0601.
USDCAD BULLISH A break above 0.9913 would open the way to 0.9953/74 area. Initial support is at 0.9771.
EURCHF BEARISH A move below 1.1806 would signal further losses towards 1.1721 and 1.1684. Initial resistance lies at 1.2000.
EURGBP BULLISH Momentum is positive; break of 0.8952 has paved the way for a climb to 0.8976 ahead of 0.9000. Support lies at 0.8848.
EURJPY BEARISH Initial support is at 113.78, break below which would open 113.42; a recovery through 115.83 is required to offset the losses and expose 116.47.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
28 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURGBP clears 0.8952
EURUSD BEARISH Initial support is at 1.4103, a move below which would expose 1.4074, the key level. Resistance is at 1.4358.
USDJPY NEUTRAL A move above 81.06 would develop positive momentum and open the way to 81.33. Initial support lies at 80.29.
GBPUSD BEARISH While resistance at 1.6075 holds, there is potential for weakness towards 1.5914 and 1.5881.
USDCHF BEARISH Scope for further downside towards 0.8300 ahead of 0.8165. Resistance lies at 0.8463.
AUDUSD BEARISH Initial support lies at 1.0390, a decline through which would expose 1.0359. Resistance is at 1.0601.
USDCAD BULLISH A break above 0.9913 would open the way to 0.9953/74 area. Initial support is at 0.9771.
EURCHF BEARISH A move below 1.1806 would signal further losses towards 1.1721 and 1.1684. Initial resistance lies at 1.2000.
EURGBP BULLISH Momentum is positive; break of 0.8952 has paved the way for a climb to 0.8976 ahead of 0.9000. Support lies at 0.8848.
EURJPY BEARISH Initial support is at 113.78, break below which would open 113.42; a recovery through 115.83 is required to offset the losses and expose 116.47.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
28th of June 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
28 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The euro drifted off its highs but managed to hold on to most of yesterday's gains ahead of the European session while risk appetite was fairly mixed. The S&P 500 closed up +0.9% on the day while the Nikkei was up +0.66% at the time of writing. EURUSD traded 1.4255-1.4330 and USDJPY 80.72-80.98. Our analysts is in line with consensus and expects the final estimate of Q1 GDP to be confirmed at 0.5% q/q. However, FX investors will likely focus more intently on parliamentary testimony by BoE Governor King and MPC members Tucker, Dale, Posen, and Miles, especially after the June minutes revealed the possibility that more QE is being entertained. The ECB's Trichet will also be on the wires and will likely sound hawkish ahead of the ECB meeting in two weeks..
EUR
The euro received a significant boost on signs of progress regarding private sector involvement in a second Greek rescue. France's Finance Minister Lagarde said that the government has arrived at a first draft for a deal with French banks on a Greek debt rollover. French President Sarkozy said that French banks are working on a 70% rollover of Greek debt. He described this as a 'voluntary' plan to avoid default, though it is unclear whether the ratings agencies or the ECB would agree.
ECB Executive Board member Stark sounded extremely hawkish, despite the recent decline in oil prices. He repeated key language that the ECB is exercising "strong vigilance", but he also went further noting that a refi rate of 1.25% is not appropriate any longer. Our economists expect the ECB to hike the policy rate by 25 bp in July. On Tuesday morning, Stark said he sees an end to Greek aid after July if the austerity plan is not met. He said there is only a 'Plan A' for Greece
The euro weakened briefly after Moody's said that deposit outflows from Greek banks accelerated in May and June, and that continued outflows are a key "credit negative" for Greek banks.
Italian newspaper Repubblica reports that Italy's finance minister, Tremonti may quit over the national budget. The paper also says that former ECB member, Bini Smaghi may replace him.
Sky News reported that an MP from Greece's ruling party, Alexandros Athanasiadis, intends to vote against the government's austerity measures unless concessions are made. The ruling Pasok party require a majority to get the austerity bill through parliament this week.
GBP
MPC policymaker Posen said that it would be "nonsense" for the BoE to raise interest rates now stressing that, unlike the 1970's, conditions for a wage-price spiral are not present.
Our analysts are inline with consensus and expects the final estimate of Q1 GDP to be confirmed at 0.5% q/q. However, FX investors will likely focus more intently on parliamentary testimony by Governor King and MPC members Tucker, Dale, Posen, and Miles, especially after the June minutes revealed the possibility of more QE is being entertained. Given Dale has voted for a hike while Posen wants more QE, a variety of opinions are likely to be expressed, leading to volatile trading conditions for sterling.
In conjunction with our economists, we lower our end-2011 sterling forecasts reflecting our belief that the BoE will wait until February before delivering their first hike. We now see cable at 1.50 (prev. 1.63) and EURGBP at 0.86 (prev. 0.80) by end-2011. Our 1m and 3m forecasts are unchanged.
CHF
We lower our EURCHF forecasts, acknowledging the reality that a comprehensive solution to the Greek debt crisis is not likely any time soon. Our 1m forecast now stands at 1.20 (prev. 1.25) and the 3m falls to 1.25 (prev. 1.32).
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
28 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The euro drifted off its highs but managed to hold on to most of yesterday's gains ahead of the European session while risk appetite was fairly mixed. The S&P 500 closed up +0.9% on the day while the Nikkei was up +0.66% at the time of writing. EURUSD traded 1.4255-1.4330 and USDJPY 80.72-80.98. Our analysts is in line with consensus and expects the final estimate of Q1 GDP to be confirmed at 0.5% q/q. However, FX investors will likely focus more intently on parliamentary testimony by BoE Governor King and MPC members Tucker, Dale, Posen, and Miles, especially after the June minutes revealed the possibility that more QE is being entertained. The ECB's Trichet will also be on the wires and will likely sound hawkish ahead of the ECB meeting in two weeks..
EUR
The euro received a significant boost on signs of progress regarding private sector involvement in a second Greek rescue. France's Finance Minister Lagarde said that the government has arrived at a first draft for a deal with French banks on a Greek debt rollover. French President Sarkozy said that French banks are working on a 70% rollover of Greek debt. He described this as a 'voluntary' plan to avoid default, though it is unclear whether the ratings agencies or the ECB would agree.
ECB Executive Board member Stark sounded extremely hawkish, despite the recent decline in oil prices. He repeated key language that the ECB is exercising "strong vigilance", but he also went further noting that a refi rate of 1.25% is not appropriate any longer. Our economists expect the ECB to hike the policy rate by 25 bp in July. On Tuesday morning, Stark said he sees an end to Greek aid after July if the austerity plan is not met. He said there is only a 'Plan A' for Greece
The euro weakened briefly after Moody's said that deposit outflows from Greek banks accelerated in May and June, and that continued outflows are a key "credit negative" for Greek banks.
Italian newspaper Repubblica reports that Italy's finance minister, Tremonti may quit over the national budget. The paper also says that former ECB member, Bini Smaghi may replace him.
Sky News reported that an MP from Greece's ruling party, Alexandros Athanasiadis, intends to vote against the government's austerity measures unless concessions are made. The ruling Pasok party require a majority to get the austerity bill through parliament this week.
GBP
MPC policymaker Posen said that it would be "nonsense" for the BoE to raise interest rates now stressing that, unlike the 1970's, conditions for a wage-price spiral are not present.
Our analysts are inline with consensus and expects the final estimate of Q1 GDP to be confirmed at 0.5% q/q. However, FX investors will likely focus more intently on parliamentary testimony by Governor King and MPC members Tucker, Dale, Posen, and Miles, especially after the June minutes revealed the possibility of more QE is being entertained. Given Dale has voted for a hike while Posen wants more QE, a variety of opinions are likely to be expressed, leading to volatile trading conditions for sterling.
In conjunction with our economists, we lower our end-2011 sterling forecasts reflecting our belief that the BoE will wait until February before delivering their first hike. We now see cable at 1.50 (prev. 1.63) and EURGBP at 0.86 (prev. 0.80) by end-2011. Our 1m and 3m forecasts are unchanged.
CHF
We lower our EURCHF forecasts, acknowledging the reality that a comprehensive solution to the Greek debt crisis is not likely any time soon. Our 1m forecast now stands at 1.20 (prev. 1.25) and the 3m falls to 1.25 (prev. 1.32).
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Monday, June 27, 2011
27th of June 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
27 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURJPY 113.42 support.
EURUSD BEARISH The pair's sell off continues; the break below 1.4127 has paved the way towards 1.4074 ahead of 1.4002. Resistance is at 1.4306.
USDJPY NEUTRAL The push above 80.80 has turned the model to neutral; resistance is at 81.06, followed by 81.33. Initial support lies at 80.14.
GBPUSD BEARISH Momentum is negative; break of 1.5937 has exposed 1.5881 ahead of 1.5822. Initial resistance is at 1.6075.
USDCHF BEARISH The break of 0.8327 has signaled scope for further downside towards 0.8300. Resistance lies at 0.8463.
AUDUSD BEARISH Decline through 1.0441 has opened the way for losses towards 1.0390/59 area. Resistance is at 1.0601.
USDCAD BULLISH Rise through 0.9899 has exposed resistance at 0.9974, the key level. Initial support is at 0.9771.
EURCHF BEARISH Break of 1.1832 has signaled potential for further losses towards 1.1600. Initial resistance lies at 1.1964.
EURGBP BULLISH Initial resistance is at 0.8926, a break here would open 0.8952/77 area. Support lies at 0.8826.
EURJPY BEARISH Focus is on initial support at 113.42, break of which would expose 113.00, Fibonacci level. Resistance lies at 114.90.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
27 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURJPY 113.42 support.
EURUSD BEARISH The pair's sell off continues; the break below 1.4127 has paved the way towards 1.4074 ahead of 1.4002. Resistance is at 1.4306.
USDJPY NEUTRAL The push above 80.80 has turned the model to neutral; resistance is at 81.06, followed by 81.33. Initial support lies at 80.14.
GBPUSD BEARISH Momentum is negative; break of 1.5937 has exposed 1.5881 ahead of 1.5822. Initial resistance is at 1.6075.
USDCHF BEARISH The break of 0.8327 has signaled scope for further downside towards 0.8300. Resistance lies at 0.8463.
AUDUSD BEARISH Decline through 1.0441 has opened the way for losses towards 1.0390/59 area. Resistance is at 1.0601.
USDCAD BULLISH Rise through 0.9899 has exposed resistance at 0.9974, the key level. Initial support is at 0.9771.
EURCHF BEARISH Break of 1.1832 has signaled potential for further losses towards 1.1600. Initial resistance lies at 1.1964.
EURGBP BULLISH Initial resistance is at 0.8926, a break here would open 0.8952/77 area. Support lies at 0.8826.
EURJPY BEARISH Focus is on initial support at 113.42, break of which would expose 113.00, Fibonacci level. Resistance lies at 114.90.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
27th of June 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
27 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar has generally kept a bid tone overnight as markets remain wary ahead of further Eurozone event risk this week. The Greek parliament is due to vote on last week's agreed austerity package on Wednesday/Thursday and many fear a repeat of last week's politically-induced volatility. Despite some positive headlines both from within Greece and the Eurozone, as well as pledges of further Chinese support from Premier Wen Jiabao - who arrives in Berlin this week for talks - the lack of a comprehensive solution continues to undermine the currency. On the US side, the Fed's relevant decisions last week have clearly given the dollar a boost, but there is still a material difference between ceasing fresh easing and tightening, and questions remain over the US' ability to weather more stringent monetary conditions. However, over the weekend the BIS warned that most central banks are behind the curve and called for interest rates to rise globally. Be that as it may, without the US leading the way, other minor central banks are clearly unwilling to risk moving ahead to exert upward pressure on their currencies, and also increase fiscal pressures. Ahead this week, apart from Eurozone event risk, CPI figures are due in the US, Eurozone and Canada, while more activity indicators are out in the US. Overnight EURUSD traded 1.4103-1.4224 and USDJPY 80.29-80.89. Equity markets in Asia traded on a soft tone.
EUR
China's Premier Wen made some euro-positive remarks during an ongoing visit to Europe. He said 'China has been a heavy investor in the euro sovereign-debt market&we have bought a lot of euro bonds over the past years, and we will continue to support Europe and the euro." We note however that the comments fall short of any specific commitment to buy additional Eurozone bonds, either from the periphery or the core.
The Greek parliament is due to vote on Wednesday and Thursday on the new program of austerity measures. Prime Minister Papandreou, Finance Minister Venizelos, and Deputy Prime Minister Pangalos have lately sounded optimistic that the measures will pass. German Finance Minister Schaeuble also sounded confident but, asked what the consequences of rejection might be, he said 'the stability of the entire euro zone would be in danger and we would need to quickly ensure that the risk of contagion for the financial system and other euro area countries would be contained'. Asked what would happen if Greece defaulted, ECB Governing Council member Mersch replied: 'Chaos'.
Greek Finance Minister Venizelos ruled out Greece leaving the Eurozone, noting that staying inside strengthens Greece's bargaining position. Greek Prime Minister Papandreou also again dismissed the idea of an exit noting that the 'cons outweigh the pros.'
Referring to the size of a possible new Greek rescue Papandreou described it as 'a mammoth loan', and said it could be as large as the first rescue which amounted to ?110 bn.
French President Sarkozy and Spanish Prime Minister Zapatero implied that their respective banks and insurance companies would be willing to participate in a voluntary rollover of their Greek sovereign debt holdings.
In data released last week, the German IFO current assessment was significantly above consensus at 123.3, but the expectations index was still relatively soft. Our European economists note that the gap between the current and expectations measures has been turning more negative, suggesting that German GDP growth will suffer later in the year. There are no major releases out of the Eurozone today.
GBP
The Observer newspaper reported that UK Treasury officials 'are working behind the scenes to persuade British banks holding Greek bonds to take a "haircut" now as the best way to avert a potential global crisis'. Reuters later quoted a Treasury spokesperson saying that the 'Treasury is monitoring the situation closely, but no specific proposals for private sector involvement have been tabled'.
On Friday BoE Governor King said the Eurozone's fiscal crisis is currently the single-biggest threat to U.K. financial stability. He warned that a failure to address the crisis could lead to a "generalized loss of confidence".
In figures released overnight, the Lloyds Business Barometer came in at 36 vs. 14 prior, and the Homestrack Housing Survey came in at -0.1%m/m, and -3.9%y/y. Ahead this week in the UK, the market will focus on the Q1 Final GDP release and further BoE comments at the U.K. Parliament's Treasury Select Committee testimonies and BoE Annual Report releases.
CHF
On Friday, the Swiss franc rose to new highs against both the euro and the dollar. Meanwhile, domestic calls for action on the currency front continue to grow louder. Over the weekend, Swiss Socialist Party President Levrat called for 'emergency measures now', and Hans Hess, President of Swiss industry group Swissmem urged the SNB to 'consider a temporary peg of the Swiss franc to the euro' if the Greece fiscal crisis escalates.
NZD
In figures released overnight, the New Zealand trade balance for May was far weaker than expected at N$605m (cons. N$1000m). Exports disappointed to the downside while imports jumped.
In general though, our economists note that there has been a run of better-than-expected data in recent weeks out of New Zealand and this may not end in the near future. Although there is still more doubt where business sentiment goes next it is already above average.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
27 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar has generally kept a bid tone overnight as markets remain wary ahead of further Eurozone event risk this week. The Greek parliament is due to vote on last week's agreed austerity package on Wednesday/Thursday and many fear a repeat of last week's politically-induced volatility. Despite some positive headlines both from within Greece and the Eurozone, as well as pledges of further Chinese support from Premier Wen Jiabao - who arrives in Berlin this week for talks - the lack of a comprehensive solution continues to undermine the currency. On the US side, the Fed's relevant decisions last week have clearly given the dollar a boost, but there is still a material difference between ceasing fresh easing and tightening, and questions remain over the US' ability to weather more stringent monetary conditions. However, over the weekend the BIS warned that most central banks are behind the curve and called for interest rates to rise globally. Be that as it may, without the US leading the way, other minor central banks are clearly unwilling to risk moving ahead to exert upward pressure on their currencies, and also increase fiscal pressures. Ahead this week, apart from Eurozone event risk, CPI figures are due in the US, Eurozone and Canada, while more activity indicators are out in the US. Overnight EURUSD traded 1.4103-1.4224 and USDJPY 80.29-80.89. Equity markets in Asia traded on a soft tone.
EUR
China's Premier Wen made some euro-positive remarks during an ongoing visit to Europe. He said 'China has been a heavy investor in the euro sovereign-debt market&we have bought a lot of euro bonds over the past years, and we will continue to support Europe and the euro." We note however that the comments fall short of any specific commitment to buy additional Eurozone bonds, either from the periphery or the core.
The Greek parliament is due to vote on Wednesday and Thursday on the new program of austerity measures. Prime Minister Papandreou, Finance Minister Venizelos, and Deputy Prime Minister Pangalos have lately sounded optimistic that the measures will pass. German Finance Minister Schaeuble also sounded confident but, asked what the consequences of rejection might be, he said 'the stability of the entire euro zone would be in danger and we would need to quickly ensure that the risk of contagion for the financial system and other euro area countries would be contained'. Asked what would happen if Greece defaulted, ECB Governing Council member Mersch replied: 'Chaos'.
Greek Finance Minister Venizelos ruled out Greece leaving the Eurozone, noting that staying inside strengthens Greece's bargaining position. Greek Prime Minister Papandreou also again dismissed the idea of an exit noting that the 'cons outweigh the pros.'
Referring to the size of a possible new Greek rescue Papandreou described it as 'a mammoth loan', and said it could be as large as the first rescue which amounted to ?110 bn.
French President Sarkozy and Spanish Prime Minister Zapatero implied that their respective banks and insurance companies would be willing to participate in a voluntary rollover of their Greek sovereign debt holdings.
In data released last week, the German IFO current assessment was significantly above consensus at 123.3, but the expectations index was still relatively soft. Our European economists note that the gap between the current and expectations measures has been turning more negative, suggesting that German GDP growth will suffer later in the year. There are no major releases out of the Eurozone today.
GBP
The Observer newspaper reported that UK Treasury officials 'are working behind the scenes to persuade British banks holding Greek bonds to take a "haircut" now as the best way to avert a potential global crisis'. Reuters later quoted a Treasury spokesperson saying that the 'Treasury is monitoring the situation closely, but no specific proposals for private sector involvement have been tabled'.
On Friday BoE Governor King said the Eurozone's fiscal crisis is currently the single-biggest threat to U.K. financial stability. He warned that a failure to address the crisis could lead to a "generalized loss of confidence".
In figures released overnight, the Lloyds Business Barometer came in at 36 vs. 14 prior, and the Homestrack Housing Survey came in at -0.1%m/m, and -3.9%y/y. Ahead this week in the UK, the market will focus on the Q1 Final GDP release and further BoE comments at the U.K. Parliament's Treasury Select Committee testimonies and BoE Annual Report releases.
CHF
On Friday, the Swiss franc rose to new highs against both the euro and the dollar. Meanwhile, domestic calls for action on the currency front continue to grow louder. Over the weekend, Swiss Socialist Party President Levrat called for 'emergency measures now', and Hans Hess, President of Swiss industry group Swissmem urged the SNB to 'consider a temporary peg of the Swiss franc to the euro' if the Greece fiscal crisis escalates.
NZD
In figures released overnight, the New Zealand trade balance for May was far weaker than expected at N$605m (cons. N$1000m). Exports disappointed to the downside while imports jumped.
In general though, our economists note that there has been a run of better-than-expected data in recent weeks out of New Zealand and this may not end in the near future. Although there is still more doubt where business sentiment goes next it is already above average.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Friday, June 24, 2011
24th of June 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
24 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
AUDUSD 1.0441 Support
EURUSD BEARISH A push below 1.4128 has exposed 1.4076 ahead of 1.3971 key support. Resistance is at 1.4358.
USDJPY BEARISH As long as resistance at 81.06 is intact, expect decline towards 80.00 ahead of 79.57 key support.
GBPUSD BEARISH Break of 1.5972 has paved the way for further losses towards 1.5937 and 1.5881. Initial resistance lies at 1.6075.
USDCHF BEARISH Initial support is at 0.8340, a break here would open key level at 0.8327. Resistance lies at 0.8517.
AUDUSD BEARISH A break below 1.0441 would open 1.0390. Resistance is at 1.0651.
USDCAD BULLISH Recovery through 0.9806 has exposed 0.9849 and 0.9898. Support lies at 0.9715.
EURCHF BEARISH Focus is on initial support at 1.1832, a break here would signal weakness towards 1.1600 . Initial resistance lies at 1.2072.
EURGBP BULLISH Resistance is at 0.8952/77, a rise through this would open way to 0.9043. Support lies at 0.8848.
EURJPY BEARISH Clearance of 113.85 would open up key support at 113.47. Resistance lies at 115.42.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
24 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
AUDUSD 1.0441 Support
EURUSD BEARISH A push below 1.4128 has exposed 1.4076 ahead of 1.3971 key support. Resistance is at 1.4358.
USDJPY BEARISH As long as resistance at 81.06 is intact, expect decline towards 80.00 ahead of 79.57 key support.
GBPUSD BEARISH Break of 1.5972 has paved the way for further losses towards 1.5937 and 1.5881. Initial resistance lies at 1.6075.
USDCHF BEARISH Initial support is at 0.8340, a break here would open key level at 0.8327. Resistance lies at 0.8517.
AUDUSD BEARISH A break below 1.0441 would open 1.0390. Resistance is at 1.0651.
USDCAD BULLISH Recovery through 0.9806 has exposed 0.9849 and 0.9898. Support lies at 0.9715.
EURCHF BEARISH Focus is on initial support at 1.1832, a break here would signal weakness towards 1.1600 . Initial resistance lies at 1.2072.
EURGBP BULLISH Resistance is at 0.8952/77, a rise through this would open way to 0.9043. Support lies at 0.8848.
EURJPY BEARISH Clearance of 113.85 would open up key support at 113.47. Resistance lies at 115.42.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
24th of June 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
24 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Trading during the Asia session was subdued after a volatile Thursday. Asian equity markets are up and there are no fresh signs of risk aversion. The Eurozone managed to make a recovery late into the US session as Greece, the EU and the IMF announced that a new deal had been reached regarding further austerity. The news was welcome respite for risk appetite, which had a very difficult today post-Fed and further softening in US data. Even though there is still significant implementation risk for Athens - beginning with the austerity vote next week, markets are now relatively confident that the worst has passed for now.
Nonetheless, this does not mean that crisis resolution is back on track as the new deal is spread over five years and questions will be asked at every single quarterly assessment. The new arrangement, should it be pushed through, ensures short-term financing but other details, such as private sector initiatives and the status of bond rollovers remain outstanding. Over the last two days relevant national banking authorities have disclosed talks are ongoing with banks regarding voluntary participation and event risk remains significant. Equity markets globally were weak, EURUSD traded at 1.4164-1.4277 and USDJPY at 80.39-80.64. On Friday, the US final Q1 GDP print plus durable goods data, core PCE and German IFO release for May are due.
EUR
Greek PM Papandreou announced that a new deal had been reached with the EU and IMF on further budget cuts and austerity measures. The measures mirror the 5-year plan approved by the Greek cabinet and the EU/IMF have ensured that it would do whatever it takes to keep Greece on track, especially meet the country's financing needs for July and avoid a disorderly default.
According to Bloomberg, Papandreou called the step a "positive sign for the future of Greece" and called for all parties to back the move. The Greek parliament will vote on the package next week. EU President Van Rompuy said this deal would address the fiscal slippages, while ECB President Trichet also said he would monitor developments in Athens closely. Crucially, the parties involved acknowledged the need for flexibility and EU sources reported that the current plan could be "reprogrammed to ensure Greece meets funding needs".
A German government advisor warned overnight that Greece needed 40%-50% debt forgiveness - this remains contrary to current Eurozone plans for the country.
Throughout Thursday, peripheral market spreads widened in European trading. Portuguese debt, that marks yet another record high. This is partly due to liquidity concerns but wider risk aversion has not helped things either.
The Financial Times reported that "Finance minister in tough talks with creditors after viability of EUR3.8bn in measures queried." A Greek socialist MP said that the Greek Finance Minister is discussing with EU/IMF steps to fill a EUR3.8 bn gap in the mid-term plan. The Greek cabinet approved the 5-year plan as expected, the parliament will vote on it June 28. But the credibility of the plan is being strongly questioned, so parliamentary approval may not give the euro the boost that some people are anticipating.
The German IFO is out on Friday and markets are still looking for a robust 113.4 print.
GBP
The head of the Institute for Fiscal studies has warned that the spending cuts needed for the government to achieve their deficit reduction plans may be 'impossible to achieve', largely because of the political cost of their implementation.. For a guideline to the impact of the measures on the UK retail sector, CBI reported sales printed the worst numbers for a year at -2 (consensus +13).
BoE Governor Sir Mervyn King is due to speak at a press conference at 9:30 GMT on Friday.
CHF
The franc rallied across the board yesterday as risk aversion took its toll. This came amid a strong trade balance showing, at CHF3.31bn for May. Nonetheless, one-offs accounted for a sharp drop in imports, which offset the 1.5% decline in exports.
AUD
RBA's Lowe says interest rates will probably have to be higher in future. Lowe is a known hawk however and the RBA on balance remains in data-watch mode, with the Q2 CPI print the key for a change in its neutral stance.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
24 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Trading during the Asia session was subdued after a volatile Thursday. Asian equity markets are up and there are no fresh signs of risk aversion. The Eurozone managed to make a recovery late into the US session as Greece, the EU and the IMF announced that a new deal had been reached regarding further austerity. The news was welcome respite for risk appetite, which had a very difficult today post-Fed and further softening in US data. Even though there is still significant implementation risk for Athens - beginning with the austerity vote next week, markets are now relatively confident that the worst has passed for now.
Nonetheless, this does not mean that crisis resolution is back on track as the new deal is spread over five years and questions will be asked at every single quarterly assessment. The new arrangement, should it be pushed through, ensures short-term financing but other details, such as private sector initiatives and the status of bond rollovers remain outstanding. Over the last two days relevant national banking authorities have disclosed talks are ongoing with banks regarding voluntary participation and event risk remains significant. Equity markets globally were weak, EURUSD traded at 1.4164-1.4277 and USDJPY at 80.39-80.64. On Friday, the US final Q1 GDP print plus durable goods data, core PCE and German IFO release for May are due.
EUR
Greek PM Papandreou announced that a new deal had been reached with the EU and IMF on further budget cuts and austerity measures. The measures mirror the 5-year plan approved by the Greek cabinet and the EU/IMF have ensured that it would do whatever it takes to keep Greece on track, especially meet the country's financing needs for July and avoid a disorderly default.
According to Bloomberg, Papandreou called the step a "positive sign for the future of Greece" and called for all parties to back the move. The Greek parliament will vote on the package next week. EU President Van Rompuy said this deal would address the fiscal slippages, while ECB President Trichet also said he would monitor developments in Athens closely. Crucially, the parties involved acknowledged the need for flexibility and EU sources reported that the current plan could be "reprogrammed to ensure Greece meets funding needs".
A German government advisor warned overnight that Greece needed 40%-50% debt forgiveness - this remains contrary to current Eurozone plans for the country.
Throughout Thursday, peripheral market spreads widened in European trading. Portuguese debt, that marks yet another record high. This is partly due to liquidity concerns but wider risk aversion has not helped things either.
The Financial Times reported that "Finance minister in tough talks with creditors after viability of EUR3.8bn in measures queried." A Greek socialist MP said that the Greek Finance Minister is discussing with EU/IMF steps to fill a EUR3.8 bn gap in the mid-term plan. The Greek cabinet approved the 5-year plan as expected, the parliament will vote on it June 28. But the credibility of the plan is being strongly questioned, so parliamentary approval may not give the euro the boost that some people are anticipating.
The German IFO is out on Friday and markets are still looking for a robust 113.4 print.
GBP
The head of the Institute for Fiscal studies has warned that the spending cuts needed for the government to achieve their deficit reduction plans may be 'impossible to achieve', largely because of the political cost of their implementation.. For a guideline to the impact of the measures on the UK retail sector, CBI reported sales printed the worst numbers for a year at -2 (consensus +13).
BoE Governor Sir Mervyn King is due to speak at a press conference at 9:30 GMT on Friday.
CHF
The franc rallied across the board yesterday as risk aversion took its toll. This came amid a strong trade balance showing, at CHF3.31bn for May. Nonetheless, one-offs accounted for a sharp drop in imports, which offset the 1.5% decline in exports.
AUD
RBA's Lowe says interest rates will probably have to be higher in future. Lowe is a known hawk however and the RBA on balance remains in data-watch mode, with the Q2 CPI print the key for a change in its neutral stance.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Thursday, June 23, 2011
23rd of June 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
23 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDCAD 0.9671 key support.
EURUSD BEARISH The pair pulled back through 1.4303 to turn bearish and expose support at 1.4215 ahead of 1.4161. Initial resistance lies at 1.4442.
USDJPY BEARISH Key support is at 80.00, decline through this level would open 79.57 next. Initial resistance is at 81.06.
GBPUSD BEARISH The sharp fall through 1.6079/58 has paved the way for further losses towards 1.5972 and 1.5937. Resistance lies at 1.6200.
USDCHF BEARISH The focus is on support at 0.8340, break of which would open key level at 0.8327. Initial resistance lies at 0.8517.
AUDUSD BEARISH A move below 1.0532 would expose 1.0478, while resistance is at 1.0651.
USDCAD NEUTRAL Support lies at 0.9671; while this level holds there's potential for a climb back to 0.9806.
EURCHF BEARISH Remains heavy below 1.2147, while the level holds focus is on downside. Initial support is at 1.2021 ahead of 1.1950.
EURGBP BULLISH The cross targets 0.8976, scope for 0.9041 next. Near-term support lies at 0.8854.
EURJPY BEARISH The break of initial support at 114.66 would open 113.52/47 area. Resistance lies at 116.00.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
23 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDCAD 0.9671 key support.
EURUSD BEARISH The pair pulled back through 1.4303 to turn bearish and expose support at 1.4215 ahead of 1.4161. Initial resistance lies at 1.4442.
USDJPY BEARISH Key support is at 80.00, decline through this level would open 79.57 next. Initial resistance is at 81.06.
GBPUSD BEARISH The sharp fall through 1.6079/58 has paved the way for further losses towards 1.5972 and 1.5937. Resistance lies at 1.6200.
USDCHF BEARISH The focus is on support at 0.8340, break of which would open key level at 0.8327. Initial resistance lies at 0.8517.
AUDUSD BEARISH A move below 1.0532 would expose 1.0478, while resistance is at 1.0651.
USDCAD NEUTRAL Support lies at 0.9671; while this level holds there's potential for a climb back to 0.9806.
EURCHF BEARISH Remains heavy below 1.2147, while the level holds focus is on downside. Initial support is at 1.2021 ahead of 1.1950.
EURGBP BULLISH The cross targets 0.8976, scope for 0.9041 next. Near-term support lies at 0.8854.
EURJPY BEARISH The break of initial support at 114.66 would open 113.52/47 area. Resistance lies at 116.00.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
23rd of June 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
23 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar found some consolidation in the wake of yesterday's FOMC decision. The statement itself confirmed that QE3 will finish on schedule at the end of June, and Fed Chairman Bernanke cited inflation as a reason why further stimulus would not be forthcoming. The key policy language pledging to keep the policy rate "exceptionally low&for an extended period" was unchanged. However, it is notable that no pledge was given to keep the balance sheet at its current elevated level for an extended period. Given that allowing the balance sheet to contract passively is likely to be the first normalisation step, this suggests at least some members of the FOMC want to maintain an ability to tighten should the need arise, and potentially at short notice. On the other hand, Bernanke warned any 'determined' central bank would do anything to fight deflation, so if conditions turn for the worse nothing can be ruled out, but the chances of QE3 are extremely small at this stage.
We expect this FOMC meeting to mark a turning point in the dollar's fortunes and look for EURUSD to end the year at 1.30. Indeed, supporting this view, the dollar gradually strengthened as Bernanke's press conference wore on, and we look for further gradual gains over the months to come. Overnight, EURUSD traded 1.4286-1.4358, USDJPY 80.26-80.64.
EUR
Newswires reported that talks have begun between Eurozone officials and banks in Greece, France, Germany, and the Netherlands on the subject of private sector involvement in the next phase of the Greek rescue.
Germany's Chancellor Merkel offered her views on a variety of topics, although most of the points have been made before. She said that she wants a voluntary, substantial, contribution from the private sector in the Greek aid deal but said that this is not possible unless the ECB are in agreement.
Bernanke emphasised time and time again during yesterday's press conference that a disorderly unravelling of the situation in the Eurozone would be very dangerous for the global economy. It was an indirect way of warning Europe to aim for a speedy resolution, consistent with recent comments from other G7 officials.
Ahead today German PMI and those for the Eurozone are due.
GBP
BBA loans for house purchases (cons. 30k) and CBI reported sales are due today. Activity indicators in the UK are crucial now to determine whether UK policy will make a turn to the dovish side.
The June minutes showed that the MPC voted 7-2 to keep rates on hold. As expected, Martin Weale and Spencer Dale voted for a hike, while new member Ben Broadbent voted to keep rates on hold. The dovish Adam Posen was once again the only voter for further QE although it was mentioned that 'some' members are in favour in principal, supporting Paul Fisher's comments yesterday. The overall tone was dovish which weighed on sterling as downside risks to growth were highlighted by the majority of the members. We remain bearish on sterling.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
23 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar found some consolidation in the wake of yesterday's FOMC decision. The statement itself confirmed that QE3 will finish on schedule at the end of June, and Fed Chairman Bernanke cited inflation as a reason why further stimulus would not be forthcoming. The key policy language pledging to keep the policy rate "exceptionally low&for an extended period" was unchanged. However, it is notable that no pledge was given to keep the balance sheet at its current elevated level for an extended period. Given that allowing the balance sheet to contract passively is likely to be the first normalisation step, this suggests at least some members of the FOMC want to maintain an ability to tighten should the need arise, and potentially at short notice. On the other hand, Bernanke warned any 'determined' central bank would do anything to fight deflation, so if conditions turn for the worse nothing can be ruled out, but the chances of QE3 are extremely small at this stage.
We expect this FOMC meeting to mark a turning point in the dollar's fortunes and look for EURUSD to end the year at 1.30. Indeed, supporting this view, the dollar gradually strengthened as Bernanke's press conference wore on, and we look for further gradual gains over the months to come. Overnight, EURUSD traded 1.4286-1.4358, USDJPY 80.26-80.64.
EUR
Newswires reported that talks have begun between Eurozone officials and banks in Greece, France, Germany, and the Netherlands on the subject of private sector involvement in the next phase of the Greek rescue.
Germany's Chancellor Merkel offered her views on a variety of topics, although most of the points have been made before. She said that she wants a voluntary, substantial, contribution from the private sector in the Greek aid deal but said that this is not possible unless the ECB are in agreement.
Bernanke emphasised time and time again during yesterday's press conference that a disorderly unravelling of the situation in the Eurozone would be very dangerous for the global economy. It was an indirect way of warning Europe to aim for a speedy resolution, consistent with recent comments from other G7 officials.
Ahead today German PMI and those for the Eurozone are due.
GBP
BBA loans for house purchases (cons. 30k) and CBI reported sales are due today. Activity indicators in the UK are crucial now to determine whether UK policy will make a turn to the dovish side.
The June minutes showed that the MPC voted 7-2 to keep rates on hold. As expected, Martin Weale and Spencer Dale voted for a hike, while new member Ben Broadbent voted to keep rates on hold. The dovish Adam Posen was once again the only voter for further QE although it was mentioned that 'some' members are in favour in principal, supporting Paul Fisher's comments yesterday. The overall tone was dovish which weighed on sterling as downside risks to growth were highlighted by the majority of the members. We remain bearish on sterling.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Monday, June 20, 2011
20th of June 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
20 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURGBP 0.8879 resistance.
EURUSD BEARISH Focus on initial support at 1.4128, break below this level would expose 1.4074. Initial resistance lies at 1.4339.
USDJPY BEARISH Pressure on key support at 80.00, move below this level would confirm the bearish conditions and open 79.57 next. Initial resistance is at 80.68.
GBPUSD BEARISH Support is at 1.6079/58 area, scope for further weakness towards 1.6000. Resistance at 1.6226 holds.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Move below 0.8443 would expose 0.8348, while resistance at 0.8565 remains intact.
AUDUSD BEARISH The pair targets initial support at 1.0478, break of this level would expose 1.0441. Resistance lies at 1.0662.
USDCAD BULLISH While support at 0.9773 remains intact, focus on resistance at 0.9869 ahead of 0.9899.
EURCHF BEARISH Break of initial support at 1.1985 would signal further weakness towards 1.1947. Initial resistance lies at 1.2255.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Move above resistance at 0.8879 would trigger the way for gains to 0.8919, while support lies at 0.8771.
EURJPY BEARISH Key support lies at 113.42, break of this level would pave the way to 113.00. Resistance lies at 114.97.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
20 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURGBP 0.8879 resistance.
EURUSD BEARISH Focus on initial support at 1.4128, break below this level would expose 1.4074. Initial resistance lies at 1.4339.
USDJPY BEARISH Pressure on key support at 80.00, move below this level would confirm the bearish conditions and open 79.57 next. Initial resistance is at 80.68.
GBPUSD BEARISH Support is at 1.6079/58 area, scope for further weakness towards 1.6000. Resistance at 1.6226 holds.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Move below 0.8443 would expose 0.8348, while resistance at 0.8565 remains intact.
AUDUSD BEARISH The pair targets initial support at 1.0478, break of this level would expose 1.0441. Resistance lies at 1.0662.
USDCAD BULLISH While support at 0.9773 remains intact, focus on resistance at 0.9869 ahead of 0.9899.
EURCHF BEARISH Break of initial support at 1.1985 would signal further weakness towards 1.1947. Initial resistance lies at 1.2255.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Move above resistance at 0.8879 would trigger the way for gains to 0.8919, while support lies at 0.8771.
EURJPY BEARISH Key support lies at 113.42, break of this level would pave the way to 113.00. Resistance lies at 114.97.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
20th of June 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
20 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar strengthened broadly during the Asia session after a weekend meeting of Eurozone finance ministers ended, unsurprisingly, without substantive agreement on how to solve the Greek debt crisis. The statement issued afterwards even suggested that the disbursement of the next quarterly instalment may have to wait until mid-July. EURUSD traded at 1.4218-1.4301, and USDJPY at 80.03-80.25.
On Friday, the S&P 500 closed up 0.3%. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 71.8 (cons. 74.0) in early June from 74.3 in May. Our US economists note that the survey shows inflation expectations remained contained, with longer-term expectations edging up 0.1pt to 3.0% and short-term expectations down 0.1pt to 4.0%.
EUR
Eurozone finance ministers have concluded their weekend meeting, and are due to begin a second meeting later this morning. A statement issued on Sunday night made it clear that the next quarterly instalment of cash for Greece may be delayed until mid-July. The statement also implied, but did not say so explicitly, that t he release of the next tranche would be conditional on the Greek parliament approving the new package of austerity measures.
Debate has begun in the Greek parliament on the question of confidence in the government. A parliamentary vote on the matter is due to be held on Tuesday. Prime Minister Papandreou appealed again for national unity to avoid a "catastrophic" default. He also pledged to "move to a referendum on this country's great reforms" in the Autumn.
Moody's put Italy's Aa2 rating on review for a possible downgrade, citing structural challenges which have existed for some time but which now "coexist with a scenario of rising interest rates and fragile market sentiment". The review is expected to conclude within 90 days. The euro's reaction to the news was quite muted, although the headlines did not hit the wires until after the London close.
Earlier on Friday the euro found support after German Chancellor Merkel appeared to back away from Germany's position that private sector Greek bondholders should be encouraged to participate in a voluntary bond exchange - an arrangement that could see the maturities of their bonds extended by up to seven years. Instead she seemed to voice her support for a softer approach - a Vienna-like initiative of the sort advocated by France which would only seek to encourage bondholders to roll their existing positions as they mature. She described this model as a "good foundation" for a deal on voluntary restructuring. This softer approach would likely reduce the risk of a credit event being triggered, but it still risks prompting ratings agency downgrades. The euro got a boost from the apparent change of heart, although we note the comments themselves are open to interpretation.
JPY
Japan's Finance Minister Noda revealed that a G7 conference call was held at the weekend, specifically to discuss Greece. Noda added that Tamaki, Japan's Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs, was also present on the call. We note that Tamaki has operational control over the implementation of Japan's FX intervention policy, and his presence suggests an awareness that a further escalation of the situation in Greece is likely to put additional downward pressure on USDJPY.
CHF
SNB Vice-Chairman Jordan referred to the vulnerabilities of the Swiss economy to the unfolding Eurozone debt crisis, noting that "via the exchange rate and demand for our exports we're very much affected by these developments." Nevertheless, he said he was "convinced" that "European institutions will take appropriate measures that will prevent an escalation of the crisis".
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
20 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar strengthened broadly during the Asia session after a weekend meeting of Eurozone finance ministers ended, unsurprisingly, without substantive agreement on how to solve the Greek debt crisis. The statement issued afterwards even suggested that the disbursement of the next quarterly instalment may have to wait until mid-July. EURUSD traded at 1.4218-1.4301, and USDJPY at 80.03-80.25.
On Friday, the S&P 500 closed up 0.3%. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 71.8 (cons. 74.0) in early June from 74.3 in May. Our US economists note that the survey shows inflation expectations remained contained, with longer-term expectations edging up 0.1pt to 3.0% and short-term expectations down 0.1pt to 4.0%.
EUR
Eurozone finance ministers have concluded their weekend meeting, and are due to begin a second meeting later this morning. A statement issued on Sunday night made it clear that the next quarterly instalment of cash for Greece may be delayed until mid-July. The statement also implied, but did not say so explicitly, that t he release of the next tranche would be conditional on the Greek parliament approving the new package of austerity measures.
Debate has begun in the Greek parliament on the question of confidence in the government. A parliamentary vote on the matter is due to be held on Tuesday. Prime Minister Papandreou appealed again for national unity to avoid a "catastrophic" default. He also pledged to "move to a referendum on this country's great reforms" in the Autumn.
Moody's put Italy's Aa2 rating on review for a possible downgrade, citing structural challenges which have existed for some time but which now "coexist with a scenario of rising interest rates and fragile market sentiment". The review is expected to conclude within 90 days. The euro's reaction to the news was quite muted, although the headlines did not hit the wires until after the London close.
Earlier on Friday the euro found support after German Chancellor Merkel appeared to back away from Germany's position that private sector Greek bondholders should be encouraged to participate in a voluntary bond exchange - an arrangement that could see the maturities of their bonds extended by up to seven years. Instead she seemed to voice her support for a softer approach - a Vienna-like initiative of the sort advocated by France which would only seek to encourage bondholders to roll their existing positions as they mature. She described this model as a "good foundation" for a deal on voluntary restructuring. This softer approach would likely reduce the risk of a credit event being triggered, but it still risks prompting ratings agency downgrades. The euro got a boost from the apparent change of heart, although we note the comments themselves are open to interpretation.
JPY
Japan's Finance Minister Noda revealed that a G7 conference call was held at the weekend, specifically to discuss Greece. Noda added that Tamaki, Japan's Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs, was also present on the call. We note that Tamaki has operational control over the implementation of Japan's FX intervention policy, and his presence suggests an awareness that a further escalation of the situation in Greece is likely to put additional downward pressure on USDJPY.
CHF
SNB Vice-Chairman Jordan referred to the vulnerabilities of the Swiss economy to the unfolding Eurozone debt crisis, noting that "via the exchange rate and demand for our exports we're very much affected by these developments." Nevertheless, he said he was "convinced" that "European institutions will take appropriate measures that will prevent an escalation of the crisis".
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Friday, June 17, 2011
17th of June 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
17 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURGBP 0.8825 resistance.
EURUSD BEARISH While resistance at 1.4300 remains intact; focus on initial support at 1.4074, break of which would open 1.4002.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Move below 80.38 would resume the bear trend and expose key level at 80.00. Initial resistance lies at 81.06.
GBPUSD BEARISH Focus on 1.6058, scope for further weakness towards 1.6000. Resistance at 1.6226 holds.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Move below 0.8443 would expose 0.8348, while a recovery through 0.8565 would open 0.8639.
AUDUSD BEARISH The pair targets initial support at 1.0478, break of this level would expose 1.0441. Initial resistance lies at 1.0591.
USDCAD BULLISH Sharp rise through 0.9852 has put the pair's focus on 0.9915 ahead of 0.9974. Near-term support lies at 0.9773.
EURCHF BEARISH Focus is on support at 1.1947, decline through this level would expose 1.1823. Initial resistance lies at 1.2126.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Downside trigger is at 0.8722, while resistance at 0.8825 holds.
EURJPY BEARISH Pressure on key support at 113.42, break of this level would expose 113.00. Resistance lies at 115.00.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
17 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURGBP 0.8825 resistance.
EURUSD BEARISH While resistance at 1.4300 remains intact; focus on initial support at 1.4074, break of which would open 1.4002.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Move below 80.38 would resume the bear trend and expose key level at 80.00. Initial resistance lies at 81.06.
GBPUSD BEARISH Focus on 1.6058, scope for further weakness towards 1.6000. Resistance at 1.6226 holds.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Move below 0.8443 would expose 0.8348, while a recovery through 0.8565 would open 0.8639.
AUDUSD BEARISH The pair targets initial support at 1.0478, break of this level would expose 1.0441. Initial resistance lies at 1.0591.
USDCAD BULLISH Sharp rise through 0.9852 has put the pair's focus on 0.9915 ahead of 0.9974. Near-term support lies at 0.9773.
EURCHF BEARISH Focus is on support at 1.1947, decline through this level would expose 1.1823. Initial resistance lies at 1.2126.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Downside trigger is at 0.8722, while resistance at 0.8825 holds.
EURJPY BEARISH Pressure on key support at 113.42, break of this level would expose 113.00. Resistance lies at 115.00.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
17th of June 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
17 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The euro weakened towards the end of the Asia session, having earlier found support after the IMF predicted a positive outcome from Monday's meeting of Eurozone finance ministers. Nevertheless, uncertainty prevails over whether Greece will receive the next quarterly instalment of funds, and whether parliamentary approval of the new austerity measures is still a prerequisite. EURUSD recovered and traded at 1.4128-1.4222, while USDJPY traded at 80.49-80.76.
Asian stocks were generally weaker, although the S&P500 earlier managed to close just inside positive territory.
EUR
The IMF said that they look for a positive outcome from the June 20 Eurogroup meeting. It is the first official news we have heard, following several news reports suggesting they would release their ?3.3bn portion of the next ?12bn loan tranche for Greece on the back of assurances form the EU on future financing. Their support is subject to the adoption of agreed Greek reforms so the final confirmation may not yet come.
The IMF has softened its stance and seems willing to release the next tranche based on a general statement of ongoing support for Greece by the EU heads of state on 24 June. This idea backs up earlier IMF comments in the European session as well as the earlier comments by Olli Rehn. This agreement will buy policymakers time and ensure that policy will not be rushed through. Clearly relevant parties do not want Greece to default on its debt and a longer-term solution is likely to be postponed until July. It is very much a case of postponing the solution.
The main conflict of interest is still the role of private sector involvement. Ratings agencies insist that any form of restructuring will trigger downgrades and the ECB insist that the measure must be entirely voluntary. While the German position has soften slightly, a solution still needs to both appease the Bundestag and the ratings agencies.
The role of the Greek parliament is less clear. It is not certain whether a full approval of the austerity package is required but political risk form this remains significant. Greek PM Papandreou is attempting to reshuffle his cabinet. The PM plans to cut the number of deputy ministers and add up to 4 non-elected officials. The confidence vote is expected to take several days and will therefore take place on Sunday at the earliest, although reports are conflicting. The candidate who was to become the new Greek finance minister resigned from parliament. However, the balance does not change as the member will be replaced directly. Greek officials warn that the Greek government is now facing a loss of confidence from its own MPs and that a third deputy may resign too.
Earlier, the EU Commission commented that Olli Rehn still expects a decision to be taken in June on the next tranche of funding for Greece, while an agreement on a continuation of the Greek program to come in July. The Commission said it is working very closely with the IMF.
EU May headline inflation confirmed at 0.0 m/m 2.7 y/y, down from 2.8 y/y in April. Core inflation nudges down to 1.5% y/y from 1.6 in April. The ECB is unlikely to change its stance on monetary policy due to this.
ECB's Liikanen says the ECB must avoid second-round effects from commodity prices by keeping inflation expectations well-anchored.
The details behind the Spanish bond auction were mixed. Spain sells EUR1.5bn of 15 year bonds at a rate of 6.027% and bid to cover 2.57x. They also sell EUR1.3bn of 2019 debt at 5.352% and a cover of 2.1x. Although the bid-to-cover rates are reasonable, it seems the Spanish authorities perhaps scaled back the offering due to high yields. Direct comparisons don't really exist but they sold EUR2.5 bn of 2021 bonds on 19/05 at a yield of 5.395%. The 2019 rate is hardly attractive, but unsurprising given movements in peripheral market spreads in recent weeks..
CHF
SNB kept its 3m Libor target rate unchanged at 0.25% as expected. It also held the 2011 GDP forecast at 2%. The inflation forecast for 2012 is marginally lower at 1.0% from 1.1% earlier and at +1.7% from +2.0% earlier for 2013. These are minor changes. Our Swiss economist notes that the SNB acknowledged increased capacity utilisation and mentioned the danger of an overheating housing market. The mention of an overheating construction sector is new.
Hildebrand says SNB is concerned about exchange rate developments; however his colleague Danthine says selling forex reserves for Swiss francs not option at moment. SNB's Danthine says concerned about CHF strength because monetary policy mix is not ideal. Says monetary policy concept not targeted to a given CHF level
As we expect risk aversion to be a key driver in the coming weeks the franc will likely stay in demand versus currencies such as the EUR..
CHF
Our analysts now think the Bank of England will not hike the policy rate until February 2012 - previously he had anticipated the first hike in August 2011.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
17 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The euro weakened towards the end of the Asia session, having earlier found support after the IMF predicted a positive outcome from Monday's meeting of Eurozone finance ministers. Nevertheless, uncertainty prevails over whether Greece will receive the next quarterly instalment of funds, and whether parliamentary approval of the new austerity measures is still a prerequisite. EURUSD recovered and traded at 1.4128-1.4222, while USDJPY traded at 80.49-80.76.
Asian stocks were generally weaker, although the S&P500 earlier managed to close just inside positive territory.
EUR
The IMF said that they look for a positive outcome from the June 20 Eurogroup meeting. It is the first official news we have heard, following several news reports suggesting they would release their ?3.3bn portion of the next ?12bn loan tranche for Greece on the back of assurances form the EU on future financing. Their support is subject to the adoption of agreed Greek reforms so the final confirmation may not yet come.
The IMF has softened its stance and seems willing to release the next tranche based on a general statement of ongoing support for Greece by the EU heads of state on 24 June. This idea backs up earlier IMF comments in the European session as well as the earlier comments by Olli Rehn. This agreement will buy policymakers time and ensure that policy will not be rushed through. Clearly relevant parties do not want Greece to default on its debt and a longer-term solution is likely to be postponed until July. It is very much a case of postponing the solution.
The main conflict of interest is still the role of private sector involvement. Ratings agencies insist that any form of restructuring will trigger downgrades and the ECB insist that the measure must be entirely voluntary. While the German position has soften slightly, a solution still needs to both appease the Bundestag and the ratings agencies.
The role of the Greek parliament is less clear. It is not certain whether a full approval of the austerity package is required but political risk form this remains significant. Greek PM Papandreou is attempting to reshuffle his cabinet. The PM plans to cut the number of deputy ministers and add up to 4 non-elected officials. The confidence vote is expected to take several days and will therefore take place on Sunday at the earliest, although reports are conflicting. The candidate who was to become the new Greek finance minister resigned from parliament. However, the balance does not change as the member will be replaced directly. Greek officials warn that the Greek government is now facing a loss of confidence from its own MPs and that a third deputy may resign too.
Earlier, the EU Commission commented that Olli Rehn still expects a decision to be taken in June on the next tranche of funding for Greece, while an agreement on a continuation of the Greek program to come in July. The Commission said it is working very closely with the IMF.
EU May headline inflation confirmed at 0.0 m/m 2.7 y/y, down from 2.8 y/y in April. Core inflation nudges down to 1.5% y/y from 1.6 in April. The ECB is unlikely to change its stance on monetary policy due to this.
ECB's Liikanen says the ECB must avoid second-round effects from commodity prices by keeping inflation expectations well-anchored.
The details behind the Spanish bond auction were mixed. Spain sells EUR1.5bn of 15 year bonds at a rate of 6.027% and bid to cover 2.57x. They also sell EUR1.3bn of 2019 debt at 5.352% and a cover of 2.1x. Although the bid-to-cover rates are reasonable, it seems the Spanish authorities perhaps scaled back the offering due to high yields. Direct comparisons don't really exist but they sold EUR2.5 bn of 2021 bonds on 19/05 at a yield of 5.395%. The 2019 rate is hardly attractive, but unsurprising given movements in peripheral market spreads in recent weeks..
CHF
SNB kept its 3m Libor target rate unchanged at 0.25% as expected. It also held the 2011 GDP forecast at 2%. The inflation forecast for 2012 is marginally lower at 1.0% from 1.1% earlier and at +1.7% from +2.0% earlier for 2013. These are minor changes. Our Swiss economist notes that the SNB acknowledged increased capacity utilisation and mentioned the danger of an overheating housing market. The mention of an overheating construction sector is new.
Hildebrand says SNB is concerned about exchange rate developments; however his colleague Danthine says selling forex reserves for Swiss francs not option at moment. SNB's Danthine says concerned about CHF strength because monetary policy mix is not ideal. Says monetary policy concept not targeted to a given CHF level
As we expect risk aversion to be a key driver in the coming weeks the franc will likely stay in demand versus currencies such as the EUR..
CHF
Our analysts now think the Bank of England will not hike the policy rate until February 2012 - previously he had anticipated the first hike in August 2011.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Thursday, June 16, 2011
16th of June 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
16 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURJPY 113.88 support
EURUSD BEARISH Sharp decline through 1.4248/1.4125 has turned the model bearish and exposed support at 1.4068 ahead of 1.4000. Resistance lies at 1.4300.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Move above 81.01 has exposed resistance at 81.26 ahead of 81.63. Support lies at 80.38.
GBPUSD BEARISH The pair pulled back through 1.6173 to put focus on 1.6132 ahead of 1.6058. Initial resistance is at 1.6383.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Break above 0.8547 has opened up 0.8639, while support lies at 0.8443.
AUDUSD BEARISH While resistance at 1.0726 holds, focus on support at 1.0510; break here would signal further losses towards 1.0441.
USDCAD BULLISH Sharp rise through 0.9772 has paved the way for gains towards 0.9829 and key level at 0.9852. Initial support lies at 0.9671.
EURCHF BEARISH Move below 1.2000 would open 1.1811. Initial resistance lies at 1.2126.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Support lies at 0.8697, while resistance at 0.8825 holds.
EURJPY BEARISH Momentum is negative; breach of 114.86/48 has signaled scope for weakness towards 113.88 and 113.42. Resistance lies at 116.47.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
16 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURJPY 113.88 support
EURUSD BEARISH Sharp decline through 1.4248/1.4125 has turned the model bearish and exposed support at 1.4068 ahead of 1.4000. Resistance lies at 1.4300.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Move above 81.01 has exposed resistance at 81.26 ahead of 81.63. Support lies at 80.38.
GBPUSD BEARISH The pair pulled back through 1.6173 to put focus on 1.6132 ahead of 1.6058. Initial resistance is at 1.6383.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Break above 0.8547 has opened up 0.8639, while support lies at 0.8443.
AUDUSD BEARISH While resistance at 1.0726 holds, focus on support at 1.0510; break here would signal further losses towards 1.0441.
USDCAD BULLISH Sharp rise through 0.9772 has paved the way for gains towards 0.9829 and key level at 0.9852. Initial support lies at 0.9671.
EURCHF BEARISH Move below 1.2000 would open 1.1811. Initial resistance lies at 1.2126.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Support lies at 0.8697, while resistance at 0.8825 holds.
EURJPY BEARISH Momentum is negative; breach of 114.86/48 has signaled scope for weakness towards 113.88 and 113.42. Resistance lies at 116.47.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
16th of June 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
16 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk aversion remained the main theme in Asian markets, mainly in reaction to falling global growth expectations and ongoing uncertainty with respect to Greece. Greek PM Papandreou is said to form a new cabinet today and will seek a vote of confidence from his socialist party in order to push through an austerity bill which is needed in order to receive the next EU/IMF aid trance. On a different note, ECB Governing Council member Wellink said that a doubling of the bailout fund could be needed in order to take into consideration contagion risk for Ireland and Portugal in the event of a new Greek aid package.
Ongoing political uncertainty in Greece and still no consensus with respect to a private sector involvement in a new bailout scheme is keeping demand for EUR-denominated assets low. Overnight, EURUSD traded 1.4191-1.4093 and USDJPY 81.93-80.85. Elsewhere weakening global growth momentum is also keeping the commodity sector under pressure which in turn will cap inflation expectations. Under above outlined conditions we keep a cautious stance on risk and anticipate further downside in pairs such as EURUSD or EURCHF.
EUR
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou will form a new government on Thursday and seek a vote of confidence from his party. Initial press reports had suggested that he had resigned to make way for 'national unity' government but this was denied and the focus will now be on tomorrows vote. Reports suggested that the opposition demand a renegotiation of the terms of the bailout as a condition for forming a coalition but these requests were deemed to severe for the PM.
Irish Finance minister Noonan says the government plans to impose losses on senior bondholder in Anglo Irish, and that it has support form the IMF.
The Greek parliament started to discuss the austerity measures. Two of the ruling Pasok party members, have defected, including the Deputy PM so the balance is very tight now with a majority of 4 at the moment. The vote is not scheduled for another 2 weeks but many more euro negative headlines likely to come out over this period.
ECBs Liikanen said that a Vienna style package "would not likely be opposed" and voluntary measures are recommended. The ECB has softened slightly in recent days but we will need further compromise from both sides in order to get a resolution. ECB's Constacio repeated the standard ECB line that they are against any sort of default with haircuts. He says a Vienna-style initiative could be 'conceived' but that any debt deal must avoid a credit event or rating agency downgrade.
ECB Governing Council member Wellink said that a doubling of the bailout fund could be needed in order to take into consideration contagion risk for Ireland and Portugal in the event of a new Greek aid package.
CHF
The SNB will decide on rates today. We expect them to keep the 3m Libor target rate unchanged at 0.25%. According to our economists and following the latest downward revision to '12 GDP and CPI inflation forecasts by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs earlier in the week the SNB is likely to revise accordingly.
At the same time this makes a case for them to keep a neutral monetary policy stance for now, in particular as monetary conditions have continued to tighten on the back of a stronger franc. As a result we expect the franc to remain driven by external factors such as risk sentiment.
As we expect risk aversion to be a key driver in the coming weeks the franc will likely stay in demand versus currencies such as the EUR.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
16 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk aversion remained the main theme in Asian markets, mainly in reaction to falling global growth expectations and ongoing uncertainty with respect to Greece. Greek PM Papandreou is said to form a new cabinet today and will seek a vote of confidence from his socialist party in order to push through an austerity bill which is needed in order to receive the next EU/IMF aid trance. On a different note, ECB Governing Council member Wellink said that a doubling of the bailout fund could be needed in order to take into consideration contagion risk for Ireland and Portugal in the event of a new Greek aid package.
Ongoing political uncertainty in Greece and still no consensus with respect to a private sector involvement in a new bailout scheme is keeping demand for EUR-denominated assets low. Overnight, EURUSD traded 1.4191-1.4093 and USDJPY 81.93-80.85. Elsewhere weakening global growth momentum is also keeping the commodity sector under pressure which in turn will cap inflation expectations. Under above outlined conditions we keep a cautious stance on risk and anticipate further downside in pairs such as EURUSD or EURCHF.
EUR
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou will form a new government on Thursday and seek a vote of confidence from his party. Initial press reports had suggested that he had resigned to make way for 'national unity' government but this was denied and the focus will now be on tomorrows vote. Reports suggested that the opposition demand a renegotiation of the terms of the bailout as a condition for forming a coalition but these requests were deemed to severe for the PM.
Irish Finance minister Noonan says the government plans to impose losses on senior bondholder in Anglo Irish, and that it has support form the IMF.
The Greek parliament started to discuss the austerity measures. Two of the ruling Pasok party members, have defected, including the Deputy PM so the balance is very tight now with a majority of 4 at the moment. The vote is not scheduled for another 2 weeks but many more euro negative headlines likely to come out over this period.
ECBs Liikanen said that a Vienna style package "would not likely be opposed" and voluntary measures are recommended. The ECB has softened slightly in recent days but we will need further compromise from both sides in order to get a resolution. ECB's Constacio repeated the standard ECB line that they are against any sort of default with haircuts. He says a Vienna-style initiative could be 'conceived' but that any debt deal must avoid a credit event or rating agency downgrade.
ECB Governing Council member Wellink said that a doubling of the bailout fund could be needed in order to take into consideration contagion risk for Ireland and Portugal in the event of a new Greek aid package.
CHF
The SNB will decide on rates today. We expect them to keep the 3m Libor target rate unchanged at 0.25%. According to our economists and following the latest downward revision to '12 GDP and CPI inflation forecasts by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs earlier in the week the SNB is likely to revise accordingly.
At the same time this makes a case for them to keep a neutral monetary policy stance for now, in particular as monetary conditions have continued to tighten on the back of a stronger franc. As a result we expect the franc to remain driven by external factors such as risk sentiment.
As we expect risk aversion to be a key driver in the coming weeks the franc will likely stay in demand versus currencies such as the EUR.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
15th of June 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
15 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURCHF 1.2318 resistance.
EURUSD NEUTRAL The pair pulled back from 1.4500, break above this level is required to signal resumption of bull trend and target 1.4551 next. Support lies at 1.4300.
USDJPY BEARISH Key support is at 80.00, break of this would expose 79.57. Resistance lies at 81.01.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Initial resistance is at 1.6442, reaction high, while support is at 1.6211.
USDCHF BEARISH Resistance at 0.8547 holds; a move below 0.8348 would open key support at 0.8327.
AUDUSD BULLISH Recovery through 1.0726 would confirm the bull trend and expose 1.0775 next. Initial support is at 1.0569.
USDCAD NEUTRAL Pull back through 0.9712 has exposed support at 0.9649/01 area. Initial resistance at 0.9772 holds.
EURCHF BEARISH Push above initial resistance at 1.2318 would negate the ongoing trend. Move below 1.2000 would open 1.1811.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Downside trigger is at 0.8750 as resistance lies at 0.8847.
EURJPY BEARISH Move below initial support at 115.27 would open 114.86 and 114.48. Resistance lies at 116.87.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
15 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURCHF 1.2318 resistance.
EURUSD NEUTRAL The pair pulled back from 1.4500, break above this level is required to signal resumption of bull trend and target 1.4551 next. Support lies at 1.4300.
USDJPY BEARISH Key support is at 80.00, break of this would expose 79.57. Resistance lies at 81.01.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Initial resistance is at 1.6442, reaction high, while support is at 1.6211.
USDCHF BEARISH Resistance at 0.8547 holds; a move below 0.8348 would open key support at 0.8327.
AUDUSD BULLISH Recovery through 1.0726 would confirm the bull trend and expose 1.0775 next. Initial support is at 1.0569.
USDCAD NEUTRAL Pull back through 0.9712 has exposed support at 0.9649/01 area. Initial resistance at 0.9772 holds.
EURCHF BEARISH Push above initial resistance at 1.2318 would negate the ongoing trend. Move below 1.2000 would open 1.1811.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Downside trigger is at 0.8750 as resistance lies at 0.8847.
EURJPY BEARISH Move below initial support at 115.27 would open 114.86 and 114.48. Resistance lies at 116.87.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
15th of June 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
15 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Although the dollar recovered some of yesterday's losses against the euro, risk appetite was modestly supported after a solid performance by US equities. EURUSD traded 1.4404-1.4497, USDJPY 80.38-80.64. The AUD in particular held onto Tuesday's gains, eventually helped higher by a hawkish RBA Governor Stevens. US industrial production and CPI are due later. These are always key numbers but assume an even greater significance on this occasion given the FOMC decision and subsequent press conference are scheduled for next week.
EUR
European finance ministers will hold an emergency meeting on Tuesday in an effort to speed up the implementation of the EUR172 bn rescue package for Greece. With few signs that the differences between policymakers have been resolved, it is unlikely to see any significant developments, the meeting is more of a pre-meeting for next week. Nonetheless, headline risk remains and price action in the euro could be volatile. We stay short EURUSD as a trade recommendation via a 3m EUR put/USD call option with a strike at 1.35
European finance ministers held an emergency meeting on Tuesday in an effort to speed up the implementation of the EUR172 bn rescue package for Greece. The meeting was more of a pre-meeting for next week. German Finance Minister Schaeuble reiterated that private sector involvement in the solution will be discussed and Finish Finance Minister Katainen offered his support to the proposals. Austrian Finance Minister Fekter said ministers still looking for Greek compromise, still differ on bailout model for the Greek bailout. Comments from the Luxembourg Finance Minister Luc Frieden that aid may be delayed until July hurt market sentiment. We stay short EURUSD as a trade recommendation via a 3m EUR put/USD call option with a strike at 1.35.
A headline saying that the Greek Finance Ministry finalises a EUR80bn loan extension gave some brief support to the euro. However, this is just a formal signing off by the Greek government on the agreement in March to extend the repayment term of Greece's EU loans.
The ECB remain hawkish. Governing Council member Jozef Makuch said a July hike is likely but not definite. This is similar to what Trichet has said in recent days and a 25bp hike in July remains the base case. ECB's Draghi began his testimony to the European parliament by describing monetary policy as still very accommodative. He said the ECB must adjust interest rates in a pre-emptive manner. He underlined the ECBs view on Greece, stating that the crisis could not force the bank to deviate from its mandate. Draghis assertion "Eurobonds may work in closer union" is similar to what Trichet started talking about last week. It's a longer-term focus and highly contingent on many factors.
ECB's Noyer says doubt over private sector involvement in bailout packages is raising market rates and risk of contagion. Noyer added that France's creditworthiness needs to be defended and safeguarded and it is "highly desirable" for France to step up the pace of deficit reduction. He underlined the ECBs stance though, saying that debt in default cannot be accepted as collateral by the ECB. IF a private sector solution can be found that avoids default, that would be appropriate.
Spain 12-month bid-to-cover 2.85 vs 2.5 at May auction, average yield 2.695% vs 2.546%. Spain 18-month bid-to cover 3.91 vs 4.12 at May auction, average yield 3.260% vs 3.095%. The focus will be on Thursday's bond auction, which is likely to be more significant for markets.
AUD
RBA Governor Stevens struck a hawkish note at his overnight speech. He referred again to the RBA's view that 'further tightening of monetary policy is likely to be required at some point for inflation to remain consistent with the 2-3 per cent medium-term target', and pointed to July's CPI data as a key piece of data that could be influential on the decision-making process.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
15 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Although the dollar recovered some of yesterday's losses against the euro, risk appetite was modestly supported after a solid performance by US equities. EURUSD traded 1.4404-1.4497, USDJPY 80.38-80.64. The AUD in particular held onto Tuesday's gains, eventually helped higher by a hawkish RBA Governor Stevens. US industrial production and CPI are due later. These are always key numbers but assume an even greater significance on this occasion given the FOMC decision and subsequent press conference are scheduled for next week.
EUR
European finance ministers will hold an emergency meeting on Tuesday in an effort to speed up the implementation of the EUR172 bn rescue package for Greece. With few signs that the differences between policymakers have been resolved, it is unlikely to see any significant developments, the meeting is more of a pre-meeting for next week. Nonetheless, headline risk remains and price action in the euro could be volatile. We stay short EURUSD as a trade recommendation via a 3m EUR put/USD call option with a strike at 1.35
European finance ministers held an emergency meeting on Tuesday in an effort to speed up the implementation of the EUR172 bn rescue package for Greece. The meeting was more of a pre-meeting for next week. German Finance Minister Schaeuble reiterated that private sector involvement in the solution will be discussed and Finish Finance Minister Katainen offered his support to the proposals. Austrian Finance Minister Fekter said ministers still looking for Greek compromise, still differ on bailout model for the Greek bailout. Comments from the Luxembourg Finance Minister Luc Frieden that aid may be delayed until July hurt market sentiment. We stay short EURUSD as a trade recommendation via a 3m EUR put/USD call option with a strike at 1.35.
A headline saying that the Greek Finance Ministry finalises a EUR80bn loan extension gave some brief support to the euro. However, this is just a formal signing off by the Greek government on the agreement in March to extend the repayment term of Greece's EU loans.
The ECB remain hawkish. Governing Council member Jozef Makuch said a July hike is likely but not definite. This is similar to what Trichet has said in recent days and a 25bp hike in July remains the base case. ECB's Draghi began his testimony to the European parliament by describing monetary policy as still very accommodative. He said the ECB must adjust interest rates in a pre-emptive manner. He underlined the ECBs view on Greece, stating that the crisis could not force the bank to deviate from its mandate. Draghis assertion "Eurobonds may work in closer union" is similar to what Trichet started talking about last week. It's a longer-term focus and highly contingent on many factors.
ECB's Noyer says doubt over private sector involvement in bailout packages is raising market rates and risk of contagion. Noyer added that France's creditworthiness needs to be defended and safeguarded and it is "highly desirable" for France to step up the pace of deficit reduction. He underlined the ECBs stance though, saying that debt in default cannot be accepted as collateral by the ECB. IF a private sector solution can be found that avoids default, that would be appropriate.
Spain 12-month bid-to-cover 2.85 vs 2.5 at May auction, average yield 2.695% vs 2.546%. Spain 18-month bid-to cover 3.91 vs 4.12 at May auction, average yield 3.260% vs 3.095%. The focus will be on Thursday's bond auction, which is likely to be more significant for markets.
AUD
RBA Governor Stevens struck a hawkish note at his overnight speech. He referred again to the RBA's view that 'further tightening of monetary policy is likely to be required at some point for inflation to remain consistent with the 2-3 per cent medium-term target', and pointed to July's CPI data as a key piece of data that could be influential on the decision-making process.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
14th of June 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
14 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURGBP 0.8750 support.
EURUSD BULLISH Recovery from 1.4300, initial support has put focus on resistance at 1.4500 ahead of 1.4551.
USDJPY BEARISH Scope for further losses towards 79.84 and 79.57, key level. Resistance lies at 80.69.
GBPUSD BULLISH Rise through 1.6384 exposed resistance at 1.6473 ahead of 1.6496. Initial support is at 1.6211.
USDCHF BEARISH Move below initial support at 0.8327 would pave the way for losses towards 0.8300 next. Resistance lies at 0.8500.
AUDUSD BEARISH Break of support at 1.0510 would expose 1.0441 next. Near-term resistance is at 1.0726.
USDCAD NEUTRAL 0.9799 and 0.9712 mark the near term directional triggers.
EURCHF BEARISH Break below 1.2000 would open 1.1811. Initial resistance lies at 1.2139.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Decline through 0.8793 has turned the model to neutral and exposed support at 0.8750. Upside trigger is at 0.8847.
EURJPY BEARISH Initial support is at 114.86, move below the level would open 114.47 and 113.88. Resistance lies at 116.87
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
14 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURGBP 0.8750 support.
EURUSD BULLISH Recovery from 1.4300, initial support has put focus on resistance at 1.4500 ahead of 1.4551.
USDJPY BEARISH Scope for further losses towards 79.84 and 79.57, key level. Resistance lies at 80.69.
GBPUSD BULLISH Rise through 1.6384 exposed resistance at 1.6473 ahead of 1.6496. Initial support is at 1.6211.
USDCHF BEARISH Move below initial support at 0.8327 would pave the way for losses towards 0.8300 next. Resistance lies at 0.8500.
AUDUSD BEARISH Break of support at 1.0510 would expose 1.0441 next. Near-term resistance is at 1.0726.
USDCAD NEUTRAL 0.9799 and 0.9712 mark the near term directional triggers.
EURCHF BEARISH Break below 1.2000 would open 1.1811. Initial resistance lies at 1.2139.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Decline through 0.8793 has turned the model to neutral and exposed support at 0.8750. Upside trigger is at 0.8847.
EURJPY BEARISH Initial support is at 114.86, move below the level would open 114.47 and 113.88. Resistance lies at 116.87
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
14th of June 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
14 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk appetite was sell supported during the Asia session after Chinese economic data was more or less inline with Bloomberg consensus expectations but, crucially, was more benign than the market had feared going into the numbers. The Bank of Japan kept the policy rate range unchanged at 0-0.1% and changed neither the size of its monthly JGB intake, nor the size of its asset purchase facility. EURUSD traded 1.4346-1.4445, USDJPY 80.09-80.37.
Greece was downgraded by S&P, during the US session, but the euro soon recovered. The Fed's Lacker was on the wires saying that recent data should prompt a 'rethink' on the outlook for growth. He remains in the hawkish camp though, saying the Fed should be wary of additional QE, and sees tightening in 2011 as a possibility.
EUR
S&P downgraded Greek Government debt 3 notches to CCC. They said that any sort of restructuring would likely "result in one or more defaults under our criteria." The move followed Moodys and investors are unlikely to be surprised by further downgrades ahead. We stay short EURUSD as a trade recommendation via a 3m EUR put/USD call option with a strike at 1.35.
Dutch finance minister De Jager says the private sector must offer 'substantial' contribution if the Dutch are to agree to further Greek aid. This could take the form of extending debt maturities, he added. The Dutch view falls in line with the German Government and is further sign that northern European Governments are not willing to budge on private sector involvement in return for the new rescue package.
ECB's Trichet said that the existence of non-standard measures don't restrict the ability of the ECB to tighten monetary policy. April's hike demonstrated the separation between the two. Trichet said while Eurozone unemployment was too high, inflation expectations must be anchored, which is no change in his overall tone.
A major London clearing house raised the extra margin requirements for Portuguese and Irish bonds to 65% and 75% respectively.
GBP
Martin Weale showed he has no intention of changing his hawkish stance. In a speech he said that "the reality is that any policy of holding the interest rate constant is likely to be unstable. The MPC must be prepared eventually to address above-target inflation by higher nominal and real interest rates&.[this is] why the Bank Rate should increase now". The departure of Andrew Sentance from policymaking circles is unlikely to alter much at the BoE, as the hawks remain hawkish. However, the balance of power lies with Mervyn King and the (relative) doves and we are unlikely to see any changes in rates over the next few months.
Headline CPI is due and we are above consensus looking for 4.8% versus consensus of a slight fall to 4.4% from last months reading of 4.5%. We don't look to buy GBP on an above-consensus number however, as the prospects of the BOE hiking remain stretched, even if the number does surprise to the upside.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
14 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk appetite was sell supported during the Asia session after Chinese economic data was more or less inline with Bloomberg consensus expectations but, crucially, was more benign than the market had feared going into the numbers. The Bank of Japan kept the policy rate range unchanged at 0-0.1% and changed neither the size of its monthly JGB intake, nor the size of its asset purchase facility. EURUSD traded 1.4346-1.4445, USDJPY 80.09-80.37.
Greece was downgraded by S&P, during the US session, but the euro soon recovered. The Fed's Lacker was on the wires saying that recent data should prompt a 'rethink' on the outlook for growth. He remains in the hawkish camp though, saying the Fed should be wary of additional QE, and sees tightening in 2011 as a possibility.
EUR
S&P downgraded Greek Government debt 3 notches to CCC. They said that any sort of restructuring would likely "result in one or more defaults under our criteria." The move followed Moodys and investors are unlikely to be surprised by further downgrades ahead. We stay short EURUSD as a trade recommendation via a 3m EUR put/USD call option with a strike at 1.35.
Dutch finance minister De Jager says the private sector must offer 'substantial' contribution if the Dutch are to agree to further Greek aid. This could take the form of extending debt maturities, he added. The Dutch view falls in line with the German Government and is further sign that northern European Governments are not willing to budge on private sector involvement in return for the new rescue package.
ECB's Trichet said that the existence of non-standard measures don't restrict the ability of the ECB to tighten monetary policy. April's hike demonstrated the separation between the two. Trichet said while Eurozone unemployment was too high, inflation expectations must be anchored, which is no change in his overall tone.
A major London clearing house raised the extra margin requirements for Portuguese and Irish bonds to 65% and 75% respectively.
GBP
Martin Weale showed he has no intention of changing his hawkish stance. In a speech he said that "the reality is that any policy of holding the interest rate constant is likely to be unstable. The MPC must be prepared eventually to address above-target inflation by higher nominal and real interest rates&.[this is] why the Bank Rate should increase now". The departure of Andrew Sentance from policymaking circles is unlikely to alter much at the BoE, as the hawks remain hawkish. However, the balance of power lies with Mervyn King and the (relative) doves and we are unlikely to see any changes in rates over the next few months.
Headline CPI is due and we are above consensus looking for 4.8% versus consensus of a slight fall to 4.4% from last months reading of 4.5%. We don't look to buy GBP on an above-consensus number however, as the prospects of the BOE hiking remain stretched, even if the number does surprise to the upside.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Monday, June 13, 2011
13th of June 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
13 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURGBP 0.8793 support.
EURUSD NEUTRAL Pull back through 1.4308 has turned the model to neutral and exposed support at 1.4248. Resistance lies at 1.4500.
USDJPY BEARISH While resistance at 81.01 holds, look for weakness towards 79.97, a break of which would open 79.57.
GBPUSD BEARISH Focus is on initial support at 1.6173, break of this level would open up 1.6132. Initial resistance lies at 1.6384.
USDCHF BEARISH Support is at 0.8327, break below this level would open 0.8300 next. Resistance lies at 0.8500.
AUDUSD BEARISH The pair targets 1.0510, break of which would confirm the bear trend and expose 1.0441 next. Near-term resistance is at 1.0664.
USDCAD BULLISH Break through 0.9821 would open key resistance at 0.9852. Initial support lies at 0.9712.
EURCHF BEARISH Initial support is at 1.2053, intraday low, break below this would expose 1.2000. Near-term resistance is at 1.2234.
EURGBP BULLISH While support at 0.8793 holds, potential for a climb towards 0.8919 and 0.8976 next.
EURJPY BEARISH Move below 115.21 has exposed support at 114.47. Near-term resistance is at 116.87.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
13 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURGBP 0.8793 support.
EURUSD NEUTRAL Pull back through 1.4308 has turned the model to neutral and exposed support at 1.4248. Resistance lies at 1.4500.
USDJPY BEARISH While resistance at 81.01 holds, look for weakness towards 79.97, a break of which would open 79.57.
GBPUSD BEARISH Focus is on initial support at 1.6173, break of this level would open up 1.6132. Initial resistance lies at 1.6384.
USDCHF BEARISH Support is at 0.8327, break below this level would open 0.8300 next. Resistance lies at 0.8500.
AUDUSD BEARISH The pair targets 1.0510, break of which would confirm the bear trend and expose 1.0441 next. Near-term resistance is at 1.0664.
USDCAD BULLISH Break through 0.9821 would open key resistance at 0.9852. Initial support lies at 0.9712.
EURCHF BEARISH Initial support is at 1.2053, intraday low, break below this would expose 1.2000. Near-term resistance is at 1.2234.
EURGBP BULLISH While support at 0.8793 holds, potential for a climb towards 0.8919 and 0.8976 next.
EURJPY BEARISH Move below 115.21 has exposed support at 114.47. Near-term resistance is at 116.87.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
13th of June 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
13 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
It was a relatively quiet Asia session with Australia on holiday. This allowed the euro to stabilise after Friday's heavy fall. But the euro is clearly not out of the woods yet. Even if fresh cash for Greece is forthcoming concern is running high over how ratings agencies will respond to any private sector involvement. Whether the ECB may be forced to exclude Greek bonds as eligible collateral is another unknown. Finally there is continued anxiety over whether a credit event might be triggered accidentally. EURUSD traded 1.4300-1.4358 and USDJPY 80.19-80.69.
The NZD fell sharply after Christchurch was struck by another large aftershock which Prime Minister Key announced would 'almost certainly' qualify as a new insurance event. The dollar strengthened moderately on Friday after the New York Fed published its latest monthly "tentative" plan for outright Treasury purchases, confirming that QE2 purchases are due to end on June 30. We note however that this schedule is subject to change before then should the FOMC issue new instructions - an outcome that our US economists do not anticipate. New York Fed President Dudley stuck to the view that the US economic recovery will likely pick up speed in the second half of the year, but that it would appear to be "painfully slow" for the unemployed. Referring to fiscal matters he said that "aggressive" near-term spending cuts or tax increases could also lead to slower growth, but that "a credible plan for long-term fiscal consolidation is sorely needed".
EUR
Although key elements of a new rescue package for Greece seemed to be slowly falling into place over the weekend, much uncertainty remains over the reaction of the ratings agencies to any private sector involvement. There is doubt too over whether the Greek parliament will approve another package of austerity measures - and parliamentary approval is a prerequisite for additional financial assistance. We expect the euro to remain under downside pressure while all this uncertainty persists.
Signs are emerging that some private sector holders of Greek sovereign bonds might be willing to participate in a new rescue program for Greece. Saturday's Financial Times reported that French banks have agreed in principle to rollover any Greek sovereign bonds as those bonds mature, on condition that other bondholders do the same. Meanwhile, Managing Director Kemmer of Germany's bank association (BdB) described the desire for private sector involvement in a further Greek rescue as "not unreasonable", adding that "our members would also participate".
ECB Executive Board member Stark said it is "not very likely" that a "totally voluntary" scheme would see a "substantial involvement of the private sector". Stark added that it is pretty clear that a credit event or a "selective default" rating would prevent the ECB from accepting Greek bonds as collateral. In our view, any decision by the ECB to exclude Greek bonds as collateral would be highly euro-negative.
Echoing comments made by ECB President Trichet on Thursday, Bundesbank President Weidmann said the ECB would not rollover its stock of Greek debt purchased under the Securities Markets Program, as to do so would transform the program from a temporary measure into a "lasting institution".
Eurogroup Chairman Juncker repeated his preference for "voluntary, soft restructuring" but cautioned that he would not push for private sector participation against the wishes of the ECB.
The ECB issued a statement on Friday clarifying its position on private sector involvement in Greece noting its opposition to any schemes that "are not purely voluntary or have any element of compulsion, that entail any credit event or that entail any default or selective default".
On the subject of monetary policy, Stark went on to strike a hawkish note. Consistent with Trichet's remarks on Thursday, he said it was a "high probability" that the ECB would hike again in July but that the decision would ultimately be conditional on "the developments of the next three to four weeks".
S&P said that France's AAA credit rating would likely be downgraded by 2020 unless reforms are implemented.
The German parliament voted in favour of Germany's participation in a new rescue for Greece provided "adequate participation" of private sector creditors would also occur. The vote is symbolic but strengthens Finance Minister Schaeuble's negotiating position as he pushes his European counterparts for private sector involvement that goes above and beyond a rollover of maturing debt.
The EFSF announced its intention to issue two bonds in support of Portugal's financial assistance program: a €5bn 10y bond "later this month, subject to market conditions", to be followed by a €3bn 5y bond "before the summer break". The EFSF last came to market in January to raise funds for Ireland's assistance program, and the €5bn 5y bond issued then saw exceptionally strong demand. Further successful placements could be seen as marginally euro positive especially if international reserve managers publicly declare their intention to take a share of the issue.
A Bundesbank report issued on Friday sees German GDP expanding by +3.1% in 2011 and by +1.8% in 2012. German CPI for May was in-line with consensus expectations.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
13 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
It was a relatively quiet Asia session with Australia on holiday. This allowed the euro to stabilise after Friday's heavy fall. But the euro is clearly not out of the woods yet. Even if fresh cash for Greece is forthcoming concern is running high over how ratings agencies will respond to any private sector involvement. Whether the ECB may be forced to exclude Greek bonds as eligible collateral is another unknown. Finally there is continued anxiety over whether a credit event might be triggered accidentally. EURUSD traded 1.4300-1.4358 and USDJPY 80.19-80.69.
The NZD fell sharply after Christchurch was struck by another large aftershock which Prime Minister Key announced would 'almost certainly' qualify as a new insurance event. The dollar strengthened moderately on Friday after the New York Fed published its latest monthly "tentative" plan for outright Treasury purchases, confirming that QE2 purchases are due to end on June 30. We note however that this schedule is subject to change before then should the FOMC issue new instructions - an outcome that our US economists do not anticipate. New York Fed President Dudley stuck to the view that the US economic recovery will likely pick up speed in the second half of the year, but that it would appear to be "painfully slow" for the unemployed. Referring to fiscal matters he said that "aggressive" near-term spending cuts or tax increases could also lead to slower growth, but that "a credible plan for long-term fiscal consolidation is sorely needed".
EUR
Although key elements of a new rescue package for Greece seemed to be slowly falling into place over the weekend, much uncertainty remains over the reaction of the ratings agencies to any private sector involvement. There is doubt too over whether the Greek parliament will approve another package of austerity measures - and parliamentary approval is a prerequisite for additional financial assistance. We expect the euro to remain under downside pressure while all this uncertainty persists.
Signs are emerging that some private sector holders of Greek sovereign bonds might be willing to participate in a new rescue program for Greece. Saturday's Financial Times reported that French banks have agreed in principle to rollover any Greek sovereign bonds as those bonds mature, on condition that other bondholders do the same. Meanwhile, Managing Director Kemmer of Germany's bank association (BdB) described the desire for private sector involvement in a further Greek rescue as "not unreasonable", adding that "our members would also participate".
ECB Executive Board member Stark said it is "not very likely" that a "totally voluntary" scheme would see a "substantial involvement of the private sector". Stark added that it is pretty clear that a credit event or a "selective default" rating would prevent the ECB from accepting Greek bonds as collateral. In our view, any decision by the ECB to exclude Greek bonds as collateral would be highly euro-negative.
Echoing comments made by ECB President Trichet on Thursday, Bundesbank President Weidmann said the ECB would not rollover its stock of Greek debt purchased under the Securities Markets Program, as to do so would transform the program from a temporary measure into a "lasting institution".
Eurogroup Chairman Juncker repeated his preference for "voluntary, soft restructuring" but cautioned that he would not push for private sector participation against the wishes of the ECB.
The ECB issued a statement on Friday clarifying its position on private sector involvement in Greece noting its opposition to any schemes that "are not purely voluntary or have any element of compulsion, that entail any credit event or that entail any default or selective default".
On the subject of monetary policy, Stark went on to strike a hawkish note. Consistent with Trichet's remarks on Thursday, he said it was a "high probability" that the ECB would hike again in July but that the decision would ultimately be conditional on "the developments of the next three to four weeks".
S&P said that France's AAA credit rating would likely be downgraded by 2020 unless reforms are implemented.
The German parliament voted in favour of Germany's participation in a new rescue for Greece provided "adequate participation" of private sector creditors would also occur. The vote is symbolic but strengthens Finance Minister Schaeuble's negotiating position as he pushes his European counterparts for private sector involvement that goes above and beyond a rollover of maturing debt.
The EFSF announced its intention to issue two bonds in support of Portugal's financial assistance program: a €5bn 10y bond "later this month, subject to market conditions", to be followed by a €3bn 5y bond "before the summer break". The EFSF last came to market in January to raise funds for Ireland's assistance program, and the €5bn 5y bond issued then saw exceptionally strong demand. Further successful placements could be seen as marginally euro positive especially if international reserve managers publicly declare their intention to take a share of the issue.
A Bundesbank report issued on Friday sees German GDP expanding by +3.1% in 2011 and by +1.8% in 2012. German CPI for May was in-line with consensus expectations.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Friday, June 10, 2011
10th of June 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
10 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD BULLISH Resistance is at 1.4653/97 area, break above which would expose 1.4711. Pull back through 1.4419 would open next support at 1.4333.
USDJPY BEARISH Focus on the initial support at 79.70, break of this would expose key support at 79.57. Resistance lies at 81.01.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Decline through 1.6325 has turned the model to neutral and exposed support at 1.6286/68 area. Initial resistance is at 1.6473.
USDCHF BEARISH Support is at 0.8327, break below this level would open 0.8300 next. Resistance lies at 0.8500.
AUDUSD BEARISH Break below 1.0510 is required to confirm the bear trend. Initial resistance is at 1.0726.
USDCAD BULLISH Key resistance is at 0.9852, break here would open 0.9910. Initial support is at 0.9697.
EURCHF BEARISH Clearance of initial resistance at 1.2318 is required for a short-term recovery, while support lies at 1.2161 ahead of 1.2108.
EURGBP BULLISH Focus is on 0.8918, move above this level would pave way for gains towards 0.8976. Support lies at 0.8846.
EURJPY NEUTRAL 117.47 and 115.21 mark the near-term directional triggers.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
10 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD BULLISH Resistance is at 1.4653/97 area, break above which would expose 1.4711. Pull back through 1.4419 would open next support at 1.4333.
USDJPY BEARISH Focus on the initial support at 79.70, break of this would expose key support at 79.57. Resistance lies at 81.01.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Decline through 1.6325 has turned the model to neutral and exposed support at 1.6286/68 area. Initial resistance is at 1.6473.
USDCHF BEARISH Support is at 0.8327, break below this level would open 0.8300 next. Resistance lies at 0.8500.
AUDUSD BEARISH Break below 1.0510 is required to confirm the bear trend. Initial resistance is at 1.0726.
USDCAD BULLISH Key resistance is at 0.9852, break here would open 0.9910. Initial support is at 0.9697.
EURCHF BEARISH Clearance of initial resistance at 1.2318 is required for a short-term recovery, while support lies at 1.2161 ahead of 1.2108.
EURGBP BULLISH Focus is on 0.8918, move above this level would pave way for gains towards 0.8976. Support lies at 0.8846.
EURJPY NEUTRAL 117.47 and 115.21 mark the near-term directional triggers.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
10th of June 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
10 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The euro eventually came under pressure towards the end of the Asia session. But traffic was not all one-way - earlier, an unexpected rate hike from the Bank of Korea along with better-than-expected import data from China briefly kept risk appetite supported. EURUSD traded 1.4484-1.4551 and USDJPY 80.03-80.47. At yesterday's ECB press conference the need for strong vigilance was duly noted, but apart from a few hawkish hints and minor upward revisions to 2011 CPI, there was precious little on offer to suggest that the ECB is ready to embark on an aggressive tightening cycle. As such, the euro's reaction was not far off that seen in the aftermath of May's policy meeting, and given the problems with Greece remain far from resolved, the currency may yet be able to have a look at 1.40 fairly soon. In the US, the US trade balance narrowed to $43.7 bn to reflect weaker imports in the aftermath of the earthquake in Japan. Our economists note that this may boost GDP, but could be offset by weaker domestic consumption. Jobless claims gained to 427k, showing that the US unemployment situation remains challenging.
EUR
Trichet uttered the key "vigilance" word, signalling a hike in July but there was no further ammunition for euro bulls to press their case. He said inflation would likely stay above the 2% target in the coming months and noted that 2011 inflation forecasts now stood at 2.5%-2.7% versus 2.0%-2.6% previously.
However, the midpoint of 2012 inflation forecasts was unchanged. Trichet warned that economic activity would be dampened somewhat due to balance sheet adjustment. This implies that the household, but in particular the banking sector may face challenges ahead, impacting both consumption and credit creation in the near future.
On the sovereign crisis, Trichet said the ECB's holdings of Greek debt would not be rolled over (and they are legally prevented from doing so), while warning that any form of credit event or selective default would not be acceptable.
Greece Q1 GDP was revised sharply lower to just +0.2% q/q from the flash estimate of +0.8%. That meant that the y/y rate was shifted down to -5.5% from -4.8%. This provides further evidence that the downturn in Greece is more severe than initial expectations.
Different sources continue to give details on the new plans for Greece, with new figures putting the total cost at well above EUR100 bn. In addition, the German Constitutional Court would hear a challenge on the bailout on July 5, according to reports in the German media.
Ahead on Friday, key data include German CPI, and markets are looking for a print of 2.3%.
GBP
As expected, the BoE did not shift policy. We believe Ben Broadbent's presence on the MPC will not change the vote balance too much. June data on growth and price pressures will be crucial as the MPC weighs the necessity of a near-term move to pre-empt inflation expectations. Industrial and manufacturing production figures are due.
CAD
Canadian labour market data is due today and markets will be looking for a strong print to confirm expectations of outperformance in the domestic economy. We expect the jobless rate to stay at 7.6% while the economy should generate 15k jobs, vs. consensus for 20k.
NZD
RBNZ Governor Bollard spoke again overnight, warning markets had over-interpreted the latest policy statement. He added that he was surprised by the current strength of the NZD.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
10 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The euro eventually came under pressure towards the end of the Asia session. But traffic was not all one-way - earlier, an unexpected rate hike from the Bank of Korea along with better-than-expected import data from China briefly kept risk appetite supported. EURUSD traded 1.4484-1.4551 and USDJPY 80.03-80.47. At yesterday's ECB press conference the need for strong vigilance was duly noted, but apart from a few hawkish hints and minor upward revisions to 2011 CPI, there was precious little on offer to suggest that the ECB is ready to embark on an aggressive tightening cycle. As such, the euro's reaction was not far off that seen in the aftermath of May's policy meeting, and given the problems with Greece remain far from resolved, the currency may yet be able to have a look at 1.40 fairly soon. In the US, the US trade balance narrowed to $43.7 bn to reflect weaker imports in the aftermath of the earthquake in Japan. Our economists note that this may boost GDP, but could be offset by weaker domestic consumption. Jobless claims gained to 427k, showing that the US unemployment situation remains challenging.
EUR
Trichet uttered the key "vigilance" word, signalling a hike in July but there was no further ammunition for euro bulls to press their case. He said inflation would likely stay above the 2% target in the coming months and noted that 2011 inflation forecasts now stood at 2.5%-2.7% versus 2.0%-2.6% previously.
However, the midpoint of 2012 inflation forecasts was unchanged. Trichet warned that economic activity would be dampened somewhat due to balance sheet adjustment. This implies that the household, but in particular the banking sector may face challenges ahead, impacting both consumption and credit creation in the near future.
On the sovereign crisis, Trichet said the ECB's holdings of Greek debt would not be rolled over (and they are legally prevented from doing so), while warning that any form of credit event or selective default would not be acceptable.
Greece Q1 GDP was revised sharply lower to just +0.2% q/q from the flash estimate of +0.8%. That meant that the y/y rate was shifted down to -5.5% from -4.8%. This provides further evidence that the downturn in Greece is more severe than initial expectations.
Different sources continue to give details on the new plans for Greece, with new figures putting the total cost at well above EUR100 bn. In addition, the German Constitutional Court would hear a challenge on the bailout on July 5, according to reports in the German media.
Ahead on Friday, key data include German CPI, and markets are looking for a print of 2.3%.
GBP
As expected, the BoE did not shift policy. We believe Ben Broadbent's presence on the MPC will not change the vote balance too much. June data on growth and price pressures will be crucial as the MPC weighs the necessity of a near-term move to pre-empt inflation expectations. Industrial and manufacturing production figures are due.
CAD
Canadian labour market data is due today and markets will be looking for a strong print to confirm expectations of outperformance in the domestic economy. We expect the jobless rate to stay at 7.6% while the economy should generate 15k jobs, vs. consensus for 20k.
NZD
RBNZ Governor Bollard spoke again overnight, warning markets had over-interpreted the latest policy statement. He added that he was surprised by the current strength of the NZD.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Thursday, June 09, 2011
9th of June 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
9 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD BULLISH The pair is stalled ahead of 1.4711; a break here would open 1.4900. Initial support lies at 1.4500.
USDJPY BEARISH Focus on the key support at 79.57 where a break would open 78.83. Resistance is at 80.40.
GBPUSD BULLISH Recovery through 1.6473 would expose 1.6496 and 1.6547 next. Near-term support lies at 1.6286.
USDCHF BEARISH Downside pressure is held above 0.8300, break below this would leave little support till 0.8165. Resistance lies at 0.8453.
AUDUSD NEUTRAL Near-term directional parameters defined at 1.0775 and 1.0441.
USDCAD BULLISH Violation of 0.9852 would expose 0.9910, while support comes in at 0.9697.
EURCHF BEARISH Focus is on the downside with initial support at 1.2161 ahead of the key low at 1.2054. Near-term resistance is at 1.2318.
EURGBP BULLISH Momentum is positive; a break above 0.8976 would expose 0.9000. Support lies at 0.8884.
EURJPY BULLISH Break of 117.90 would open 118.38/52 resistance zone. Near-term support lies at 115.77.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
9 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD BULLISH The pair is stalled ahead of 1.4711; a break here would open 1.4900. Initial support lies at 1.4500.
USDJPY BEARISH Focus on the key support at 79.57 where a break would open 78.83. Resistance is at 80.40.
GBPUSD BULLISH Recovery through 1.6473 would expose 1.6496 and 1.6547 next. Near-term support lies at 1.6286.
USDCHF BEARISH Downside pressure is held above 0.8300, break below this would leave little support till 0.8165. Resistance lies at 0.8453.
AUDUSD NEUTRAL Near-term directional parameters defined at 1.0775 and 1.0441.
USDCAD BULLISH Violation of 0.9852 would expose 0.9910, while support comes in at 0.9697.
EURCHF BEARISH Focus is on the downside with initial support at 1.2161 ahead of the key low at 1.2054. Near-term resistance is at 1.2318.
EURGBP BULLISH Momentum is positive; a break above 0.8976 would expose 0.9000. Support lies at 0.8884.
EURJPY BULLISH Break of 117.90 would open 118.38/52 resistance zone. Near-term support lies at 115.77.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
9th of June 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
9 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar gave back some of yesterday's gains against the euro, but losses were most pronounced against the New Zealand dollar. Although the RBNZ kept policy unchanged, the policy statement contained a reference to future rate hikes, which propelled NZDUSD about 80 pips higher. EURUSD traded 1.4564-1.4632, USDJPY 79.79-80.30. US Yields remain soft and equities ended the day lower across the board. The Beige Book, which covered activity through May 27, according to our economists offered a very marginally softer tone than the prior report. However, "labour market conditions continued to improve gradually," another sign that at present growth moderation rather than outright economic contraction is the main theme for the US. Today, the ECB and BoE are due to hold policy meetings, and although benchmark rates are expected to remain unchanged for both, the ECB is expected to signal a hike in July, which has largely been priced in. We believe current EUR levels are hard to justify given the economic and implementation risk in crisis resolution.
EUR
Further comments surrounding Greece put downward pressure on the euro earlier during the US session. Details emerged from 'sources' about the proposed new Greek rescue package. The EU/IMF is expected to lend Greece around EUR40 bn and calls for up to EUR30 bn from privatisations, and about EUR30 bn from private bondholders. The EUR30 bn private sector involvement could be bad news for the market as it could provoke ratings downgrades.
The European Commission/IMF/ECB troika finally released details of their assessment on Greece and the country's current predicament is clearly troubling. In no uncertain terms, the current adjustment programme was deemed insufficiently funded, and Greece would not be able to return to markets to finance itself next year.
The report also warned that current uncertainty was aggravating tension in international markets, and warned of a lack of consensus within Greece's political establishment. Although the lack of domestic accord on further austerity is not though to be a deal-breaker, it is desired by the troika as implementation risk would remain strong without broad cross-party consensus.
German industrial production in April was softer at +9.6% y/y vs +10.0% consensus, a further sign of a slowdown Our European economists note that IP is still well above its long-term average 2.4% growth, and expect it to stay above it for at least the rest of the year. Eurozone Q1 GDP was unrevised at 0.8% q/q and 2.5% y/y, in line with expectations
The ECB decision is the focus of the day and the market has broadly priced in a hike for July, which would be signalled with "vigilance" as usual. Our analysts note that the market continues to underprice the risk of aggressive tightening by the ECB, but if Trichet doesn't signal a continuation in the cycle the EUR risks reacting adversely in the same manner as a month ago, while sovereign concerns are arguably more severe.
GBP
The BoE decides on policy today but the market is anticipating no change in policy. Nor should Ben Broadbent's presence on the MPC change the vote balance too much. June data on growth and price pressures will be crucial as the MPC weighs the necessity of a near-term move to pre-empt inflation expectations.
Sterling came under pressure after an interview with a Moody's analyst hit the wires. The analyst was quoted as saying that weak growth and fiscal slippage could see UK lose its AAA status. However, these are not official comments from the ratings agency and indeed it is not a warning from Moody's that it's thinking about a downgrade. The comments do not tell us anything new and are referring to the issue of policy implementation. We remain cautious on sterling however and look to sell at these levels.
AUD
In Australia, labour market data disappointed again, and the AUD took the news badly dropping approximately 50 pips.
NZD
The RBNZ kept rates on hold at 2.50%, as expected. The overall assessment was cautiously optimistic as the central bank noted recovery in the economy is continuing, but rates should be "on hold for now". Although the statement noted that hikes in the next two years are needed to counter inflation, there isn't a pressing case as stimulus is needed. Nevertheless the NZD got a strong boost from the policy statement.
RBNZ Governor Bollard, speaking later before a parliamentary committee declared that the market's interpretation of the policy statement was 'over-hawkish', and added that he can be patient on rates. He said the kiwi strength overnight was an over-reaction and that the NZD should be significantly lower that where it is.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
9 June 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar gave back some of yesterday's gains against the euro, but losses were most pronounced against the New Zealand dollar. Although the RBNZ kept policy unchanged, the policy statement contained a reference to future rate hikes, which propelled NZDUSD about 80 pips higher. EURUSD traded 1.4564-1.4632, USDJPY 79.79-80.30. US Yields remain soft and equities ended the day lower across the board. The Beige Book, which covered activity through May 27, according to our economists offered a very marginally softer tone than the prior report. However, "labour market conditions continued to improve gradually," another sign that at present growth moderation rather than outright economic contraction is the main theme for the US. Today, the ECB and BoE are due to hold policy meetings, and although benchmark rates are expected to remain unchanged for both, the ECB is expected to signal a hike in July, which has largely been priced in. We believe current EUR levels are hard to justify given the economic and implementation risk in crisis resolution.
EUR
Further comments surrounding Greece put downward pressure on the euro earlier during the US session. Details emerged from 'sources' about the proposed new Greek rescue package. The EU/IMF is expected to lend Greece around EUR40 bn and calls for up to EUR30 bn from privatisations, and about EUR30 bn from private bondholders. The EUR30 bn private sector involvement could be bad news for the market as it could provoke ratings downgrades.
The European Commission/IMF/ECB troika finally released details of their assessment on Greece and the country's current predicament is clearly troubling. In no uncertain terms, the current adjustment programme was deemed insufficiently funded, and Greece would not be able to return to markets to finance itself next year.
The report also warned that current uncertainty was aggravating tension in international markets, and warned of a lack of consensus within Greece's political establishment. Although the lack of domestic accord on further austerity is not though to be a deal-breaker, it is desired by the troika as implementation risk would remain strong without broad cross-party consensus.
German industrial production in April was softer at +9.6% y/y vs +10.0% consensus, a further sign of a slowdown Our European economists note that IP is still well above its long-term average 2.4% growth, and expect it to stay above it for at least the rest of the year. Eurozone Q1 GDP was unrevised at 0.8% q/q and 2.5% y/y, in line with expectations
The ECB decision is the focus of the day and the market has broadly priced in a hike for July, which would be signalled with "vigilance" as usual. Our analysts note that the market continues to underprice the risk of aggressive tightening by the ECB, but if Trichet doesn't signal a continuation in the cycle the EUR risks reacting adversely in the same manner as a month ago, while sovereign concerns are arguably more severe.
GBP
The BoE decides on policy today but the market is anticipating no change in policy. Nor should Ben Broadbent's presence on the MPC change the vote balance too much. June data on growth and price pressures will be crucial as the MPC weighs the necessity of a near-term move to pre-empt inflation expectations.
Sterling came under pressure after an interview with a Moody's analyst hit the wires. The analyst was quoted as saying that weak growth and fiscal slippage could see UK lose its AAA status. However, these are not official comments from the ratings agency and indeed it is not a warning from Moody's that it's thinking about a downgrade. The comments do not tell us anything new and are referring to the issue of policy implementation. We remain cautious on sterling however and look to sell at these levels.
AUD
In Australia, labour market data disappointed again, and the AUD took the news badly dropping approximately 50 pips.
NZD
The RBNZ kept rates on hold at 2.50%, as expected. The overall assessment was cautiously optimistic as the central bank noted recovery in the economy is continuing, but rates should be "on hold for now". Although the statement noted that hikes in the next two years are needed to counter inflation, there isn't a pressing case as stimulus is needed. Nevertheless the NZD got a strong boost from the policy statement.
RBNZ Governor Bollard, speaking later before a parliamentary committee declared that the market's interpretation of the policy statement was 'over-hawkish', and added that he can be patient on rates. He said the kiwi strength overnight was an over-reaction and that the NZD should be significantly lower that where it is.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
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