Monday, September 05, 2011

5th of September 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview

DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
5 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday

_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________


TECHNICAL DATA

EURUSD BEARSIH Sell-off continues; near-term support lies at 1.4104 ahead of the Aug. 5 key low of 1.4055. Resistance is at 1.4288.

USDJPY BEARISH Support lies at 75.95, the low from Aug 19 and resistance is at 77.70.

GBPUSD BEARISH The pair targets 1.6111, where a break would expose 1.6101, the Fibonacci level. Initial resistance is at 1.6261.

USDCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 0.8088, while support lies at 0.7712.

AUDUSD BULLISH Recent pullback is seen as a correction; A move above 1.0765 would open 1.0809. Support comes in at 1.0419.

USDCAD BULLISH Clearance of 0.9901 would expose 0.9939. Support lies at 0.9754.

EURCHF NEUTRAL Near-term directional triggers are at 1.0799, a Fibonacci level, and 1.1621.

EURGBP NEUTRAL Resistance is at 0.8822 and support at 0.8697.

EURJPY BEARISH Focus is on initial support at 108.52, a break here would open key low at 108.03. Initial resistance is at 109.89.


A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com

DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.

5th of September 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview

DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
5 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday

____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________


FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT

USD
Risk sentiment was muted in Asia, mainly due to disappointing US labour data and intact uncertainty about the Eurozone. According to Friday's payrolls report US employers added no new jobs in August. The unemployment rate was stuck at 9.1%. With the labour market remaining weak, there is no indication for a quick rebound in consumer sentiment and hence domestic demand. Elsewhere, according to S&P, eurobonds, if becoming reality, would be rated according to the weakest member state. In Germany Chancellor Merkel's party lost regional elections in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. This also comes in response to voters' discontent with Merkel's handling of the debt crisis. As a result to above outlined conditions, most Asian stock markets indices are trading in the red, with the Nikkei down by 1.9%. EURUSD traded 1.4137 -1.4195 and USDJPY 76.72-76.96.

EUR
According to EU Commission President Barroso it is premature to make an assessment on Greece and its performance against agreed targets. He added that he still expects modest growth in Europe and that all is done in order to improve the situation.

German Chancellor Merkel's party lost state elections in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. This was also du to increasing discontent about her handling of the debt crisis. This was the fifth election loss this year.

According to S&P's Moritz Kraemer, Head of European Sovereign Ratings, the rating of a common euro-area bond would reflect the rating of the weakest country if jointly guaranteed.

Italian 10y bond yields continued to rise on Friday, and are now significantly higher than those of Spain. Italy's Foreign Minister Frattini on Saturday ruled out the ECB ceasing to buy Italian debt saying "I think we will press the ECB to continue with its very wise policy to sustain the efforts of countries such as Italy and Spain". He later clarified the remarks noting that the ECB is an independent institution, and said there are "no requests, pressures".

EU Council President von Rompuy is due to meet Finland's Prime Minister Katainen on Monday, and then to confer with Germany's Chancellor Merkel that evening in Berlin. The question of how to handle Finland's request for Greek collateral seems likely to dominate the agenda.

France's Budget Minister Pecresse warned about the consequences if France were to lose her triple-A rating. "The triple A... if we lost it then immediately we would borrow more expensively, our interest rates would rise and it would cost us nearly 5 billion euros per year... so I really think that we need to be careful". We note that all three of the main ratings agencies affirmed France's Aaa/AAA rating in the aftermath of the US rating downgrade.

The EU approved the release of the next tranches of aid to Ireland and Portugal. The IMF stated that Ireland had shown "resolute implementation" of the program.

The Spanish parliament approved constitutional amendments for budget deficit limits, as expected.
JPY
Prime Minister Noda gave his support to the principle of FX intervention, stating that it tends to curb excessive, disorderly FX moves. Given he presided over the past three interventions, his views are not surprising. He added that steps to counter yen rise is an urgent issue for government and that the yen's rise has already had a negative impact on the economy.

Azumi made his first policy announcement in his capacity as the newly-appointed Japanese finance minister. It would appear that as far as exchange rate policy is concerned, policy continuity is the intention. He repeated the well-worn phrase that domestic industry would suffer if the government does not take measures against the strong yen. He said he was opposed to the BoJ underwriting JGB issuance - again a central policy plank of the Kan administration.

Newly-appointed Economy Minister Furukawa said he wants the BoJ to consider further monetary easing to cope with the yen's rise. He did not specify which method of easing he had in mind.

CHF
The SNB is due to announce the average level of sight deposits held at the SNB last week. We expect the announcement shortly before 07:00 GMT on Monday. The SNB's stated policy intention is to increase sight deposits to CHF 200 bn, and we believe that target has already been reached. Last week's announcement showed deposits at CHF 189 bn.


A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com


DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.

Friday, September 02, 2011

2nd of September 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview

DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
2 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday

_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________


TECHNICAL DATA

EURJPY 110.95 resistance.

EURUSD NEUTRAL Initial support lies at 1.4150, a break here would open 1.4104 ahead of 1.4055. While a recovery through 1.4386 would expose 1.4469.

USDJPY BEARISH Break below 76.34 would reinforce the bearish conditions and open the way for a move towards 75.95, the key low. Resistance is at 77.70.

GBPUSD BEARISH Sharp sell-off broke through 1.6167 to expose support at the Aug 11 low of 1.6111 ahead of 1.6041. Initial resistance is at 1.6334.

USDCHF BULLISH Resistance is at 0.8209 ahead of 0.8278, while a pull back through 0.7893 would hurt the short-term bull trend and open up 0.7744.

AUDUSD BULLISH Focus is on resistance at 1.0786, a break of which would expose the Fibonacci level of 1.0809 ahead of 1.1007. Initial support lies at 1.0561.

USDCAD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 0.9839 and support lies at 0.9708, a Fibonacci level.

EURCHF BULLISH Initial resistance is at 1.1852, a break above which would open 1.1973. Support lies at 1.1248, a Fibonacci level.

EURGBP BULLISH A clear break above the key high from Aug 10 of 0.8886 would be an important bull trigger to expose 0.8915. Support lies at 0.8742.

EURJPY BEARISH Key support lies at 109.02, next level comes in at 108.52. Initial resistance is at 110.95.


A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com

DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.

2nd of September 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview

DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
2 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday

____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________


FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT

USD
Price action was subdued in Asia overnight, with market focus centered on today's US payrolls release. The S&P 500 closed down 1.2% despite a stronger ISM number yesterday and softer risk appetite worked its way into the Asian session. Yesterday's August ISM number came in well ahead of expectations. Not only did it force some market participants to reassess their expectations for further Fed monetary easing, it also contrasted sharply with a batch of weak European PMIs released earlier in the day. The dollar got a significant boost for both reasons. However, the upswing was brief against most currencies, although the dollar held onto the gains it made against the euro. The Swiss franc continued to advance, driven by risk-off flows on the disappointing Eurozone PMI numbers, and also due to silence from the SNB regarding its policy intentions. Fed Governor Duke said that the US housing market is "so severely out of balance" that it is hampering the economic recovery. Our US economists are slightly above consensus for today's non-farm payrolls print, looking for a headline number of +80k and an unemployment rate of 9.1%. EURUSD traded 1.4229-1.4242 and USDJPY 76.79-76.97.

EUR
Reuters, citing an unnamed source close to the inspection team, reported that EU/IMF inspectors have serious doubts about whether Greece can meet its targets for the privatisation of state assets, but that it is much too soon to say if September's quarterly instalment of aid is at risk. Dow Jones, citing an official, reported that the Troika has suspended the Greece inspection and is set to resume in ten days.

ECB Governing Council member Nowotny said he doesn't share any concerns about France losing her triple-A rating.

German Chancellor Merkel repeated her opposition to Eurobonds, describing them again as the 'wrong answer'. Interestingly, Portugal's Prime Minister Coelho also said Eurobonds are not the solution, given the deeper political union that would first be required for their introduction.

Eurozone PMIs disappointed. Flash estimates in Germany and France were both revised down to 50.9 and 49.1 respectively while the Italian estimate for August was below consensus at 47.0. As expected, composite European PMI was revised down to 49 from 49.7 preliminary. These prints (particularly the ones below 50) are concerning and pushed markets into risk-off mode.

Irish Finance Minister Noonan said that it looks as if Ireland will have to revise down projected growth figures for 2012. He added that he understands that the Finland-Greece collateral deal is now off the table.

Bundesbank President Weidmann said that the policy response to the Eurozone crisis has strained its framework and blurred the line between fiscal and monetary policy. He said that in the long term this blurring puts a strain on the confidence in central banks. He believes some Eurozone states taking on risk for the whole bloc is not the way to curtail uncertainty, as this only puts more pressure on monetary policy to be loose.
JPY
New Japanese Prime Minister Noda has appointed Jun Azumi as finance minister. Not much is known about him yet, but Noda is likely to maintain some influence over policy.

AUD
Prime Minister Gillard said she has not been approached about stepping down, despite some speculation. She said she is determined to keep doing what she has been doing as PM and is not considering replacing the immigration minister

Retail sales rose by 0.5% m/m in July; a strong print after months of weakness. Q2 capex was also robust at +4.9%, in line with UBS, above consensus.


A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com


DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.

Wednesday, August 31, 2011

31st of August 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview

DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
31 August 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday

_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________


TECHNICAL DATA

EURGBP 0.8886 key resistance.

EURUSD BULLISH Initial resistance is at 1.4549 ahead of 1.4578; a break above this level would open up 1.4697, the key high from June 7. Near-term support lies at 1.4328.

USDJPY BEARISH Break below 76.34 would signal extension of losses towards the key low at 75.95 ahead of the psychological 75.00 level. Resistance is at 77.02.

GBPUSD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.6420 and support lies at 1.6255 ahead of 1.6208.

USDCHF BULLISH Focus is on initial resistance at 0.8278, a move above which would expose 0.8398. Support lies at 0.8041.

AUDUSD BULLISH There is potential for gains towards 1.0786 ahead of 1.0809. Initial support lies at 1.0621.

USDCAD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 0.9817 ahead of 0.9839, while a move below 0.9741 would trigger a bear trend.

EURCHF BULLISH Clearance of initial resistance at 1.1897 would open the way for a move towards 1.1973 ahead of 1.2172. Support lies at 1.1630.

EURGBP BULLISH Resistance at 0.8886 remains intact, a rise through this level would signal further gains towards 0.8915, a Fibonacci level. Initial support is at 0.8795.

EURJPY NEUTRAL Near-term directional triggers are at 111.94 and 110.11.


A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com

DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.