DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
6 July 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURJPY focus on 117.90
EURUSD BULLISH While support at 1.4333 holds, focus on initial resistance at 1.4578; a break here would expose 1.4653 and 1.4697, the key high from June 7.
USDJPY BULLISH A move above 81.27 would open up the way towards 81.77 and 82.23. Support lies at 80.27.
GBPUSD BEARISH Decline through 1.5970 would favor extension of losses towards 1.5911. Resistance is at 1.6154.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Key resistance is at 0.8551, while support lies at 0.8306 ahead of 0.8276, the key low.
AUDUSD BULLISH Clearance of 1.0790 would signal scope for further gains towards 1.0889. Initial support lies at 1.0520.
USDCAD BEARISH A push through 0.9580 would expose key support at 0.9513. Resistance is at 0.9705.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Sharp fall below 1.2186 has turned the model to neutral; resistance is at 1.2346 and support lies at 1.2030.
EURGBP BULLISH As long as 0.8903 holds, expect a recovery towards 0.9049 and 0.9095, the Fibonacci resistance.
EURJPY BULLISH Focus is on 117.90 break of which would be an important bullish development to expose 118.38 next. Support holds at 115.91.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
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Wednesday, July 06, 2011
6th of July 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
6 July 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The euro managed to stage a minor recovery overnight as markets digested the Moody's downgrade of Portugal, which jolted an otherwise sleepy US session. The four-notch move, with hints of more to go, served as a reminder that even though Greece has passed its near-term tests, problems within other economies persist, not to mention contagion risk. As the ECB meets and growth momentum starts to wobble, the sustainability of current plans will be further scrutinised. Nevertheless Asian equities are taking the news in their stride. On Tuesday the S&P 500 closed down -0.13% on a mixed day for global equities. US President Obama said a deal on raising the debt limit must be reached in the next 2 weeks, but that he is opposed to any deal that would only provide a short-term increase. There were no US data releases on Tuesday, but the non-manufacturing ISM is likely to be the centre of attention today ahead of payrolls on Friday.
EUR
Moody's cut Portugal's sovereign rating by 4 notches to Ba2, becoming the first agency to take the sovereign into non-investment grade territory (S&P and Fitch still rate Portugal two notches higher at BBB-). By way of rationale, Moody's cited the "growing risk that Portugal will require a second round of official financing" and, significantly, the "increasing possibility that private sector creditor participation will be required as a pre-condition". Moody's also had additional concerns that Portugal's deficit reduction and debt stabilisation targets may not be met. Eurozone bond markets had closed before the news broke, suggesting there is scope for renewed euro downside at the European open on Wednesday.
Moody's outlook on Portugal's rating is still "negative", but this does not mean another downgrade is inevitable - indeed the euro partially recovered later when Moody's confirmed this, saying the outlook would most likely be revised to "stable".
The Financial Times reported that the ECB may still continue to accept Greek debt as collateral provided at least one out of the three ratings agencies does not judge any bond rollover to amount to 'selective default'.
According to newswires, the Greek and German finance ministers are going to have a working dinner on July 6.
On the data front, composite PMI in Eurozone surprised to the downside at 53.3, while services PMI dropped to 53.7 (cons. 54.2). Eurozone retail sales weakened by 1.1% in May, more than expected. Clearly the economy is showing more signs of a soft patch and the ECB may choose to factor this in ahead of the policy decision on Thursday.
GBP
The BRC Shop Price Index came in better than expected at 2.9%, though concerns over the retail sector remain. Ahead today more housing numbers are out but market attention will shift to the BoE decision.
Sterling managed a small rally as the services PMI unexpectedly rose slightly to 53.9 (cons. 53.5). We would fade the move as the details of the survey were far less robust, warning of below trend activity expansion and job creation.
We continue to target weakness in GBP, the BoE decision this week is not expected to yield any changes though some investors still believe a fresh round of QE is possible.
AUD
The RBA kept rates on hold at 4.75% yesterday. The result was in line with expectations though our economists note the overall tone of the decision release was less certain on growth. Nevertheless, their medium-term forecast of trend growth was intact.
On inflation the RBA noted loose global policy settings were leading to global inflation and the high AUD was seen as having a 'noticeable dampening effect', suggesting conditions are tightening.
In other data, the trade surplus was much higher at $2.3bn (cons. 1.9bn), the best since October 2010 as export values rebounded.
We continue to expect an RBA move in October as inflation pressures compel the central bank to act.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
6 July 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The euro managed to stage a minor recovery overnight as markets digested the Moody's downgrade of Portugal, which jolted an otherwise sleepy US session. The four-notch move, with hints of more to go, served as a reminder that even though Greece has passed its near-term tests, problems within other economies persist, not to mention contagion risk. As the ECB meets and growth momentum starts to wobble, the sustainability of current plans will be further scrutinised. Nevertheless Asian equities are taking the news in their stride. On Tuesday the S&P 500 closed down -0.13% on a mixed day for global equities. US President Obama said a deal on raising the debt limit must be reached in the next 2 weeks, but that he is opposed to any deal that would only provide a short-term increase. There were no US data releases on Tuesday, but the non-manufacturing ISM is likely to be the centre of attention today ahead of payrolls on Friday.
EUR
Moody's cut Portugal's sovereign rating by 4 notches to Ba2, becoming the first agency to take the sovereign into non-investment grade territory (S&P and Fitch still rate Portugal two notches higher at BBB-). By way of rationale, Moody's cited the "growing risk that Portugal will require a second round of official financing" and, significantly, the "increasing possibility that private sector creditor participation will be required as a pre-condition". Moody's also had additional concerns that Portugal's deficit reduction and debt stabilisation targets may not be met. Eurozone bond markets had closed before the news broke, suggesting there is scope for renewed euro downside at the European open on Wednesday.
Moody's outlook on Portugal's rating is still "negative", but this does not mean another downgrade is inevitable - indeed the euro partially recovered later when Moody's confirmed this, saying the outlook would most likely be revised to "stable".
The Financial Times reported that the ECB may still continue to accept Greek debt as collateral provided at least one out of the three ratings agencies does not judge any bond rollover to amount to 'selective default'.
According to newswires, the Greek and German finance ministers are going to have a working dinner on July 6.
On the data front, composite PMI in Eurozone surprised to the downside at 53.3, while services PMI dropped to 53.7 (cons. 54.2). Eurozone retail sales weakened by 1.1% in May, more than expected. Clearly the economy is showing more signs of a soft patch and the ECB may choose to factor this in ahead of the policy decision on Thursday.
GBP
The BRC Shop Price Index came in better than expected at 2.9%, though concerns over the retail sector remain. Ahead today more housing numbers are out but market attention will shift to the BoE decision.
Sterling managed a small rally as the services PMI unexpectedly rose slightly to 53.9 (cons. 53.5). We would fade the move as the details of the survey were far less robust, warning of below trend activity expansion and job creation.
We continue to target weakness in GBP, the BoE decision this week is not expected to yield any changes though some investors still believe a fresh round of QE is possible.
AUD
The RBA kept rates on hold at 4.75% yesterday. The result was in line with expectations though our economists note the overall tone of the decision release was less certain on growth. Nevertheless, their medium-term forecast of trend growth was intact.
On inflation the RBA noted loose global policy settings were leading to global inflation and the high AUD was seen as having a 'noticeable dampening effect', suggesting conditions are tightening.
In other data, the trade surplus was much higher at $2.3bn (cons. 1.9bn), the best since October 2010 as export values rebounded.
We continue to expect an RBA move in October as inflation pressures compel the central bank to act.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Tuesday, July 05, 2011
5th of July 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
5 July 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURCHF 1.2405 next resistance.
EURUSD BULLISH A move above 1.4578 would expose 1.4653 and 1.4697, the key high from June 7. Support lies at 1.4427.
USDJPY BULLISH Clearance of 81.27 would open up the way towards 81.77 and 82.21. Support comes in at 80.27.
GBPUSD BEARISH Focus is on support at 1.5970, a move below which would expose 1.5911. Initial resistance is at 1.6141.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Targets 0.8551 key resistance; a break here would open 0.8663. Near-term support lies at 0.8400.
AUDUSD BULLISH Recovery stalled in front of 1.0790; clearance of the level would signal scope for further gains towards 1.0889. Initial support lies at 1.0520.
USDCAD BEARISH Break below 0.9580 would expose key support at 0.9513. Resistance is at 0.9651.
EURCHF BULLISH Next hurdle for the bulls is at 1.2405, the Dec 30 low. A break here would open 1.2500. Support lies at 1.2186.
EURGBP BULLISH Initial resistance is at 0.9098 ahead of 0.9095 Fibonacci level. A move above these levels would expose 0.9150 key high. Support is at 0.8976 previous high.
EURJPY BULLISH Rise through key high at 117.90 would open 118.38, while support holds at 115.91.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
5 July 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURCHF 1.2405 next resistance.
EURUSD BULLISH A move above 1.4578 would expose 1.4653 and 1.4697, the key high from June 7. Support lies at 1.4427.
USDJPY BULLISH Clearance of 81.27 would open up the way towards 81.77 and 82.21. Support comes in at 80.27.
GBPUSD BEARISH Focus is on support at 1.5970, a move below which would expose 1.5911. Initial resistance is at 1.6141.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Targets 0.8551 key resistance; a break here would open 0.8663. Near-term support lies at 0.8400.
AUDUSD BULLISH Recovery stalled in front of 1.0790; clearance of the level would signal scope for further gains towards 1.0889. Initial support lies at 1.0520.
USDCAD BEARISH Break below 0.9580 would expose key support at 0.9513. Resistance is at 0.9651.
EURCHF BULLISH Next hurdle for the bulls is at 1.2405, the Dec 30 low. A break here would open 1.2500. Support lies at 1.2186.
EURGBP BULLISH Initial resistance is at 0.9098 ahead of 0.9095 Fibonacci level. A move above these levels would expose 0.9150 key high. Support is at 0.8976 previous high.
EURJPY BULLISH Rise through key high at 117.90 would open 118.38, while support holds at 115.91.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
5th of July 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
5 July 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Overnight, the RBA left rates on hold at 4.75% but our economists note that the media release signalled less certainty on growth, both domestic and globally. As a more cautious tone was largely priced in, the AUD was not hit hard, nor was risk in general as there were bright spots elsewhere, but we note that increased uncertainty within policymaking is denting risk:reward generally. Yesterday, the July 4 Independence Day holiday closed US equity and Treasury markets, and ensured an exceptionally quiet session in FX. Ahead today, our European economists expect the Riksbank to deliver another 25bp of tightening. This week's ECB press conference and Friday's payrolls report are likely to be the main events. On the data side, German PMI services and composite Eurozone PMIs will be released. It's a quite session in the US as factory orders are the only release of note due. EURUSD traded 1.4466-1.4553 and USDJPY 80.71-81.11.
EUR
With investors having fully digested the weekend news that the EU is to release the next quarterly tranche of cash to Greece, attention is already starting to focus on the next hurdle. A second Greek rescue program is clearly in the pipeline, but questions remain over the scale and nature of any private sector participation, the timing of any final announcement on this, and the likely reaction of ratings agencies.
As far as timing is concerned, the latest official remarks suggest that nothing imminent should be expected. Greek Finance Minister Venizelos suggested details would be available before mid-September. The German Finance Ministry said a new Greek aid package could be finalised by the Autumn. Slovakia's Finance Minister Miklos said it "would be ideal" to have agreement by August 20.
The euro got a scare when S&P warned that a Greek debt rollover might cause Greece's rating to be cut to "selective default" if the plan was implemented along the lines proposed by French banks last week. However ISDA's General Counsel Geen said that a voluntary rollover or an exchange of Greek bonds would not "typically" lead to the triggering of CDS.
Ahead today German and pan-Eurozone service PMIs are due. We expect a hike at the Thursday ECB meeting but the post-meeting press conference may air greater caution if data momentum continues to disappoint.
JPY
BoJ Governor Shirakawa repeated his view that the Japanese economy is showing signs of picking up and will eventually resume a moderate recovery. The comments suggest that another round of monetary easing is still a somewhat distant prospect.
AUD
The RBA kept rates on hold overnight at 4.75%, in line with expectations. Our economists note, however, that the overall tone of the accompanying release was less certain on growth, with the RBA saying 2011 economic expansion is "now unlikely to be as strong as earlier forecast". Nevertheless, their medium-term forecast of trend growth remained intact. On inflation the RBA noted loose global policy settings were leading to global inflation and the high AUD was seen as having a 'noticeable dampening effect', suggesting conditions are tightening.
We continue to expect an RBA move in October as inflation pressures compel the central bank to act.
In other data, the May trade surplus was much higher at $2.3 bn (conssensus $1.9 bn), the best since October 2010 as export values rebounded.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
5 July 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Overnight, the RBA left rates on hold at 4.75% but our economists note that the media release signalled less certainty on growth, both domestic and globally. As a more cautious tone was largely priced in, the AUD was not hit hard, nor was risk in general as there were bright spots elsewhere, but we note that increased uncertainty within policymaking is denting risk:reward generally. Yesterday, the July 4 Independence Day holiday closed US equity and Treasury markets, and ensured an exceptionally quiet session in FX. Ahead today, our European economists expect the Riksbank to deliver another 25bp of tightening. This week's ECB press conference and Friday's payrolls report are likely to be the main events. On the data side, German PMI services and composite Eurozone PMIs will be released. It's a quite session in the US as factory orders are the only release of note due. EURUSD traded 1.4466-1.4553 and USDJPY 80.71-81.11.
EUR
With investors having fully digested the weekend news that the EU is to release the next quarterly tranche of cash to Greece, attention is already starting to focus on the next hurdle. A second Greek rescue program is clearly in the pipeline, but questions remain over the scale and nature of any private sector participation, the timing of any final announcement on this, and the likely reaction of ratings agencies.
As far as timing is concerned, the latest official remarks suggest that nothing imminent should be expected. Greek Finance Minister Venizelos suggested details would be available before mid-September. The German Finance Ministry said a new Greek aid package could be finalised by the Autumn. Slovakia's Finance Minister Miklos said it "would be ideal" to have agreement by August 20.
The euro got a scare when S&P warned that a Greek debt rollover might cause Greece's rating to be cut to "selective default" if the plan was implemented along the lines proposed by French banks last week. However ISDA's General Counsel Geen said that a voluntary rollover or an exchange of Greek bonds would not "typically" lead to the triggering of CDS.
Ahead today German and pan-Eurozone service PMIs are due. We expect a hike at the Thursday ECB meeting but the post-meeting press conference may air greater caution if data momentum continues to disappoint.
JPY
BoJ Governor Shirakawa repeated his view that the Japanese economy is showing signs of picking up and will eventually resume a moderate recovery. The comments suggest that another round of monetary easing is still a somewhat distant prospect.
AUD
The RBA kept rates on hold overnight at 4.75%, in line with expectations. Our economists note, however, that the overall tone of the accompanying release was less certain on growth, with the RBA saying 2011 economic expansion is "now unlikely to be as strong as earlier forecast". Nevertheless, their medium-term forecast of trend growth remained intact. On inflation the RBA noted loose global policy settings were leading to global inflation and the high AUD was seen as having a 'noticeable dampening effect', suggesting conditions are tightening.
We continue to expect an RBA move in October as inflation pressures compel the central bank to act.
In other data, the May trade surplus was much higher at $2.3 bn (conssensus $1.9 bn), the best since October 2010 as export values rebounded.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Monday, July 04, 2011
4th of July 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
4 July 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
GBPUSD 1.6119 resistance.
EURUSD BULLISH The break of initial resistance at 1.4653 would open the key level at 1.4697. Support lies at 1.4427.
USDJPY BULLISH A clear break above 81.33 would confirm the bullish conditions and expose 81.77. Initial support lies at 80.27.
GBPUSD BEARISH While resistance at 1.6119 remains intact; focus on support at 1.5970 ahead of 1.5911.
USDCHF NEUTRAL The pair's recovery has turned the model to neutral; key resistance is at 0.8551, while support lies at 0.8400.
AUDUSD BULLISH A break of 1.0775 has exposed resistance at 1.0889 ahead of 1.0953, while support lies at 1.0668.
USDCAD BEARISH Decline through 0.9600 has signaled scope for further losses towards 0.9556 and 0.9505. Near-term resistance is at 0.9651.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Rise through 1.2318 has exposed resistance at 1.2415 ahead of 1.2469. Support lies at 1.2186.
EURGBP BULLISH A break above resistance at 0.9095 would open the way to 0.9150. Support lies at 0.8985.
EURJPY BULLISH Watch resistance at 117.90, a break above which is required to confirm the bull trend and open up 118.38. Support lies at 115.91.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
4 July 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
GBPUSD 1.6119 resistance.
EURUSD BULLISH The break of initial resistance at 1.4653 would open the key level at 1.4697. Support lies at 1.4427.
USDJPY BULLISH A clear break above 81.33 would confirm the bullish conditions and expose 81.77. Initial support lies at 80.27.
GBPUSD BEARISH While resistance at 1.6119 remains intact; focus on support at 1.5970 ahead of 1.5911.
USDCHF NEUTRAL The pair's recovery has turned the model to neutral; key resistance is at 0.8551, while support lies at 0.8400.
AUDUSD BULLISH A break of 1.0775 has exposed resistance at 1.0889 ahead of 1.0953, while support lies at 1.0668.
USDCAD BEARISH Decline through 0.9600 has signaled scope for further losses towards 0.9556 and 0.9505. Near-term resistance is at 0.9651.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Rise through 1.2318 has exposed resistance at 1.2415 ahead of 1.2469. Support lies at 1.2186.
EURGBP BULLISH A break above resistance at 0.9095 would open the way to 0.9150. Support lies at 0.8985.
EURJPY BULLISH Watch resistance at 117.90, a break above which is required to confirm the bull trend and open up 118.38. Support lies at 115.91.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
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