DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
9 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURCHF 1.2433/03 support.
EURUSD NEUTRAL Break through 1.4457 and 1.4343 has exposed 1.4158/48 support area; need a break below this to trigger bear trend. Initial resistance is at 1.4500.
USDJPY BEARISH Initial support is at 80.00, break of this would expose 79.57 and 78.83 next. Resistance is at 81.28.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Move below 1.6342 would expose 1.6246 Fibonacci level. Resistance lies at 1.6464
USDCHF BEARISH Support is at 0.8554/00 area, break of which would expose 0.8416. Initial resistance is at 0.8893.
AUDUSD NEUTRAL Rise above 1.0878 would signal resumption of the bull trend and expose 1.0953. Support lies at 1.0579.
USDCAD NEUTRAL Initial resistance is at 0.9722, while support lies at 0.9569.
EURCHF BEARISH Violation of 1.2624 and 1.2571 has opened up the way towards 1.2433/03. Resistance is at 1.2749.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Decline through 0.8800 and 0.8780 has exposed 0.8714/00. Initial resistance is at 0.8800.
EURJPY BEARISH Pressure on 115.00; break below this would expose 114.16 and 113.56.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
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Monday, May 09, 2011
9th of May 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
9 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The euro partially recovered during the Asia session after Friday's selloff. Friday's moves were triggered by a report in a German newspaper claiming Greece was considering withdrawing from the Eurozone, and that an emergency meeting of European officials had been called to discuss the issue. A special meeting did take place on Friday night, but participants emphasised that the topic of a potential Greek exit was not discussed. EURUSD traded 1.4341-1.4407, USDJPY 80.52-80.85 on Friday. The April payrolls report showed job growth continued at a healthy pace and was broad-based. Non-farm payrolls easily beat consensus estimates, rising by +244k (cons. +185k). The relief was palpable after a succession of other employment indicators had pointed to a weaker outcome. US yields surged in response, propelling USDJPY towards 81.00 before developments in Europe caused the pair to reverse course again on safe-haven demand. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 9.0% (cons. 8.8%, prev. 8.8%). However, our US economists see little cause for alarm, noting that this was likely due to poor weather delaying farm hiring.
EUR
Eurogroup Chairman Juncker confirmed that ministers from Germany, France, Italy and Spain attended a special meeting on Friday, but said that the possible exit of Greece from the Eurozone was not raised. He dismissed it as a "stupid idea&it is an avenue we would never take. We don't want to have the euro area exploding without reason." However, he conceded that participants thought Greece might need another adjustment program and that this would be discussed in detail at the May 16 meeting of Eurogroup finance ministers.
The Greek Finance Ministry confirmed that Finance Minister Papaconstantinou was also present at the meeting, but that "it was never discussed or posed as an issue whether Greece would remain in the euro zone". Papaconstantinou said talks centred around what would happen in 2012 when Greece, under the terms of the current rescue plan, is due to return to markets. He said Greece would either return to markets as planned, or use the EFSF to buy Greek bonds.
ECB Governing Council member Liikanen said that "no Eurozone country wants to leave the euro", and that a restructuring of Greece's debt would not be a permanent solution to Greece's plight.
Irish Central Bank Governor Honohan said the growth of Irish debt is an issue, and that the sustainability of that debt depends on Irish growth rates. He stressed however that Ireland would manage to avoid a doomsday scenario. Irish Minister for Energy Rabbitte, said he would like to see an extension in the term of the loans offered to Ireland under the EU/IMF/ECB rescue package. Currently, the average term of maturity of these loans is 7.5 years.
GBP
Chancellor Osborne said that Greece may need additional help from the Eurozone, but that the UK did not want to participate in any second rescue attempt.
JPY
The minutes of the BoJ's April 6-7 policy meeting revealed that members felt there was a very high level of uncertainty over the economic impact of the March 11 earthquake. The Ministry of Finance's representative who was present at the meeting said the government has no plans to ask the BoJ to underwrite JGB issuance.
AUD
Market expectations for future RBA tightening continue to build. Friday's hawkish quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy is largely responsible for this, although a steady stream of hawkish articles from local RBA-watching journalists has also played its part. Our Australian economists stick to their view that the RBA's next rate hike will likely come in August. We expect AUDUSD to move back up to our 1m forecast of 1.10, and remain long AUDNZD from 1.3545, targeting 1.4200.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
9 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The euro partially recovered during the Asia session after Friday's selloff. Friday's moves were triggered by a report in a German newspaper claiming Greece was considering withdrawing from the Eurozone, and that an emergency meeting of European officials had been called to discuss the issue. A special meeting did take place on Friday night, but participants emphasised that the topic of a potential Greek exit was not discussed. EURUSD traded 1.4341-1.4407, USDJPY 80.52-80.85 on Friday. The April payrolls report showed job growth continued at a healthy pace and was broad-based. Non-farm payrolls easily beat consensus estimates, rising by +244k (cons. +185k). The relief was palpable after a succession of other employment indicators had pointed to a weaker outcome. US yields surged in response, propelling USDJPY towards 81.00 before developments in Europe caused the pair to reverse course again on safe-haven demand. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 9.0% (cons. 8.8%, prev. 8.8%). However, our US economists see little cause for alarm, noting that this was likely due to poor weather delaying farm hiring.
EUR
Eurogroup Chairman Juncker confirmed that ministers from Germany, France, Italy and Spain attended a special meeting on Friday, but said that the possible exit of Greece from the Eurozone was not raised. He dismissed it as a "stupid idea&it is an avenue we would never take. We don't want to have the euro area exploding without reason." However, he conceded that participants thought Greece might need another adjustment program and that this would be discussed in detail at the May 16 meeting of Eurogroup finance ministers.
The Greek Finance Ministry confirmed that Finance Minister Papaconstantinou was also present at the meeting, but that "it was never discussed or posed as an issue whether Greece would remain in the euro zone". Papaconstantinou said talks centred around what would happen in 2012 when Greece, under the terms of the current rescue plan, is due to return to markets. He said Greece would either return to markets as planned, or use the EFSF to buy Greek bonds.
ECB Governing Council member Liikanen said that "no Eurozone country wants to leave the euro", and that a restructuring of Greece's debt would not be a permanent solution to Greece's plight.
Irish Central Bank Governor Honohan said the growth of Irish debt is an issue, and that the sustainability of that debt depends on Irish growth rates. He stressed however that Ireland would manage to avoid a doomsday scenario. Irish Minister for Energy Rabbitte, said he would like to see an extension in the term of the loans offered to Ireland under the EU/IMF/ECB rescue package. Currently, the average term of maturity of these loans is 7.5 years.
GBP
Chancellor Osborne said that Greece may need additional help from the Eurozone, but that the UK did not want to participate in any second rescue attempt.
JPY
The minutes of the BoJ's April 6-7 policy meeting revealed that members felt there was a very high level of uncertainty over the economic impact of the March 11 earthquake. The Ministry of Finance's representative who was present at the meeting said the government has no plans to ask the BoJ to underwrite JGB issuance.
AUD
Market expectations for future RBA tightening continue to build. Friday's hawkish quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy is largely responsible for this, although a steady stream of hawkish articles from local RBA-watching journalists has also played its part. Our Australian economists stick to their view that the RBA's next rate hike will likely come in August. We expect AUDUSD to move back up to our 1m forecast of 1.10, and remain long AUDNZD from 1.3545, targeting 1.4200.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Wednesday, May 04, 2011
4th of May 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
4 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURGBP 0.9039/45 resistance.
EURUSD BULLISH Upside potential held at 1.4905; a break here would expose 1.5000. Initial support is at 1.4633.
USDJPY BEARISH Pressure on 80.69; move below this would expose 80.00. Initial resistance lies at 81.69.
GBPUSD BULLISH Pullback targets 1.6438 support; if the level holds, expect recovery towards 1.6661 and 1.6747.
USDCHF BEARISH Bear trend extends; initial support is at 0.8569 ahead of 0.8500. Resistance lies at 0.8761.
AUDUSD BULLISH Break of 1.0953 would expose 1.1012/23 area. Support lies at 1.0775.
USDCAD BEARISH Focus is on 0.9446, break below this would signal potential for weakness towards 0.9400. Resistance is at 0.9576.
EURCHF BEARISH A break of 1.2751/30 support zone would open 1.2624. Near-term resistance is at 1.2880.
EURGBP BULLISH Abrupt recovery yesterday has exposed 0.9039/45 area; a break through this would expose 0.9067. Initial support is at 0.8942, previous high.
EURJPY BULLISH While support at 118.50 holds, expect recovery towards 121.14 and 121.84.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
4 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURGBP 0.9039/45 resistance.
EURUSD BULLISH Upside potential held at 1.4905; a break here would expose 1.5000. Initial support is at 1.4633.
USDJPY BEARISH Pressure on 80.69; move below this would expose 80.00. Initial resistance lies at 81.69.
GBPUSD BULLISH Pullback targets 1.6438 support; if the level holds, expect recovery towards 1.6661 and 1.6747.
USDCHF BEARISH Bear trend extends; initial support is at 0.8569 ahead of 0.8500. Resistance lies at 0.8761.
AUDUSD BULLISH Break of 1.0953 would expose 1.1012/23 area. Support lies at 1.0775.
USDCAD BEARISH Focus is on 0.9446, break below this would signal potential for weakness towards 0.9400. Resistance is at 0.9576.
EURCHF BEARISH A break of 1.2751/30 support zone would open 1.2624. Near-term resistance is at 1.2880.
EURGBP BULLISH Abrupt recovery yesterday has exposed 0.9039/45 area; a break through this would expose 0.9067. Initial support is at 0.8942, previous high.
EURJPY BULLISH While support at 118.50 holds, expect recovery towards 121.14 and 121.84.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
4th of May 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
4 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
FX risk appetite declined a little further during the Asia session as silver weakened again. News that Portugal had agreed the terms of a financial aid package with the EU/IMF/ECB did little to shore up sentiment. EURUSD traded in a range of 1.4755-1.4861, and USDJPY 80.82-81.11. Asian equities are down over 1% at the time of writing while the S&P 500 closed -0.34% lower. On the data front, US factory orders were stronger than expected at +3.0% in March, and vehicle sales also surprised to the upside, coming in at 10.2 mn for domestic sales and 13.14 mn for total sales (vs. 9.9 mn and 13 mn respectively). Ahead on Wednesday, European PMI figures are due, while the US gears up for the Friday payrolls print, beginning with the ADP survey and ISM non-manufacturing report for April.
EUR
Our European economists have tweaked their ECB rate hike forecast. They still see two further hikes this year, but now expect them to come sooner - in July and October, instead of September and December previously.
Portugal announced that a bailout deal had been agreed with the IMF and EU. Sources reported the total size of the bailout at EUR78 bn, with a maturity of three years. No details on the interest rate have yet been released.
Eurozone PPI came in at +0.7% m/m and +6.7% y/y, the latter slightly higher than expected. Our economists expect no policy change at this week's ECB policy meeting but recent elevated inflation prints suggest that there is a high chance President Trichet will stick to an assertive stance.
GBP
Manufacturing PMI in the UK was softer at 54.6 (cons. 57), providing further evidence that the index has peaked. With softer trends in core data releases recently, the likelihood of a BoE hike has receded and our UK economist expects rates will remain on hold on Thursday.
CAD
The ruling Conservative Party finally won a majority of parliamentary seats in Monday's Federal elections - the fourth election in seven years. Canada is now one of the few G7 economies which is likely to have a stable, majority government. This should allow the CAD to enjoy a strong political premium and outperform on the crosses.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
4 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
FX risk appetite declined a little further during the Asia session as silver weakened again. News that Portugal had agreed the terms of a financial aid package with the EU/IMF/ECB did little to shore up sentiment. EURUSD traded in a range of 1.4755-1.4861, and USDJPY 80.82-81.11. Asian equities are down over 1% at the time of writing while the S&P 500 closed -0.34% lower. On the data front, US factory orders were stronger than expected at +3.0% in March, and vehicle sales also surprised to the upside, coming in at 10.2 mn for domestic sales and 13.14 mn for total sales (vs. 9.9 mn and 13 mn respectively). Ahead on Wednesday, European PMI figures are due, while the US gears up for the Friday payrolls print, beginning with the ADP survey and ISM non-manufacturing report for April.
EUR
Our European economists have tweaked their ECB rate hike forecast. They still see two further hikes this year, but now expect them to come sooner - in July and October, instead of September and December previously.
Portugal announced that a bailout deal had been agreed with the IMF and EU. Sources reported the total size of the bailout at EUR78 bn, with a maturity of three years. No details on the interest rate have yet been released.
Eurozone PPI came in at +0.7% m/m and +6.7% y/y, the latter slightly higher than expected. Our economists expect no policy change at this week's ECB policy meeting but recent elevated inflation prints suggest that there is a high chance President Trichet will stick to an assertive stance.
GBP
Manufacturing PMI in the UK was softer at 54.6 (cons. 57), providing further evidence that the index has peaked. With softer trends in core data releases recently, the likelihood of a BoE hike has receded and our UK economist expects rates will remain on hold on Thursday.
CAD
The ruling Conservative Party finally won a majority of parliamentary seats in Monday's Federal elections - the fourth election in seven years. Canada is now one of the few G7 economies which is likely to have a stable, majority government. This should allow the CAD to enjoy a strong political premium and outperform on the crosses.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Tuesday, May 03, 2011
3rd of May 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
3 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The price action during the Asia session was choppy and stop-loss driven. The RBA's policy statement was slightly more hawkish than the previous one, but there was not enough of a rhetorical shift to materially affect AUDUSD. EURUSD traded 1.4772-1.4882, USDJPY 80.98-81.29. Risk appetite was more or less unchanged. The Nikkei-225 was closed for the Golden Week holiday, but US stocks closed fractionally lower. Manufacturing ISM edged down slightly to a still better-than-expected 60.4. The survey components that most directly indicate output trends remained strong, on balance, although were down slightly from March. Our analysts think the strong reading reinforces their view that the economy is not losing momentum, despite the slower Q1 GDP report. As a result of recent dollar underperformance and the Fed continuing with QE2 through June, we lower our short-term dollar forecasts. We now see EURUSD at 1.48 in 1m and at 1.40 in 3m, up from 1.40 and 1.30, respectively. Our 1m USDCHF target drops to 0.89 and the 3m falls to 0.96. We mark to market our 1m commodity currency forecasts, putting USDCAD at 0.95, AUDUSD at 1.10 and NZDUSD at 0.81. We keep our USDJPY and EURCHF forecasts unchanged. Our UK economist recently revised his forecast for the first BoE rate hike, postponing it until August at the earliest. In line with his view, we now raise our 1m and 3m EURGBP targets to 0.90 from 0.85.
EUR
Eurogroup President Juncker said they would give a full response to Portugal by mid-May and reiterated that Greek debt restructuring is not an option at this stage. Juncker also said he thought Bank of Italy Governor Draghi appears to have strong support to be the next ECB president, once Trichet's term ends in October.
Greek Finance Minister Papaconstantinou repeated that Greece does not need to restructure its debt, but that an extension to the repayment schedule on the EU/IMF loans could be beneficial. EU's Rehn says the EU strategy to rescue Greece isn't 'failing'; and that the EU has 'largely contained' bond market distress.
The ECB's Constancio reiterated that risks to the inflation outlook have moved to the upside and said officials have not decided to rush into a series of rate hikes. Constancio also said that non-standard measures are temporary by nature.
There was a series of upward revisions to European PMIs. German manufacturing PMI was revised up to 62.0, while the Eurozone-wide number was revised up to 58.0.
AUD
The RBA kept policy unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting, but allowed slightly more hawkish language to creep into the policy statement. Our Australian economics team sees this as an attempt to reintroduce a near-term tightening bias, which was virtually absent in the previous statement. Specifically, the RBA noted the terms of trade were reaching higher levels than assumed a few months ago, and that the 'marked decline' in core inflation had now 'run its course'. It was again noted that the strong AUD was useful in the fight against inflation, but the board questioned the currency's ability to control inflation single-handedly. Our economists stick to their view that the next hike will likely come in August.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
3 May 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The price action during the Asia session was choppy and stop-loss driven. The RBA's policy statement was slightly more hawkish than the previous one, but there was not enough of a rhetorical shift to materially affect AUDUSD. EURUSD traded 1.4772-1.4882, USDJPY 80.98-81.29. Risk appetite was more or less unchanged. The Nikkei-225 was closed for the Golden Week holiday, but US stocks closed fractionally lower. Manufacturing ISM edged down slightly to a still better-than-expected 60.4. The survey components that most directly indicate output trends remained strong, on balance, although were down slightly from March. Our analysts think the strong reading reinforces their view that the economy is not losing momentum, despite the slower Q1 GDP report. As a result of recent dollar underperformance and the Fed continuing with QE2 through June, we lower our short-term dollar forecasts. We now see EURUSD at 1.48 in 1m and at 1.40 in 3m, up from 1.40 and 1.30, respectively. Our 1m USDCHF target drops to 0.89 and the 3m falls to 0.96. We mark to market our 1m commodity currency forecasts, putting USDCAD at 0.95, AUDUSD at 1.10 and NZDUSD at 0.81. We keep our USDJPY and EURCHF forecasts unchanged. Our UK economist recently revised his forecast for the first BoE rate hike, postponing it until August at the earliest. In line with his view, we now raise our 1m and 3m EURGBP targets to 0.90 from 0.85.
EUR
Eurogroup President Juncker said they would give a full response to Portugal by mid-May and reiterated that Greek debt restructuring is not an option at this stage. Juncker also said he thought Bank of Italy Governor Draghi appears to have strong support to be the next ECB president, once Trichet's term ends in October.
Greek Finance Minister Papaconstantinou repeated that Greece does not need to restructure its debt, but that an extension to the repayment schedule on the EU/IMF loans could be beneficial. EU's Rehn says the EU strategy to rescue Greece isn't 'failing'; and that the EU has 'largely contained' bond market distress.
The ECB's Constancio reiterated that risks to the inflation outlook have moved to the upside and said officials have not decided to rush into a series of rate hikes. Constancio also said that non-standard measures are temporary by nature.
There was a series of upward revisions to European PMIs. German manufacturing PMI was revised up to 62.0, while the Eurozone-wide number was revised up to 58.0.
AUD
The RBA kept policy unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting, but allowed slightly more hawkish language to creep into the policy statement. Our Australian economics team sees this as an attempt to reintroduce a near-term tightening bias, which was virtually absent in the previous statement. Specifically, the RBA noted the terms of trade were reaching higher levels than assumed a few months ago, and that the 'marked decline' in core inflation had now 'run its course'. It was again noted that the strong AUD was useful in the fight against inflation, but the board questioned the currency's ability to control inflation single-handedly. Our economists stick to their view that the next hike will likely come in August.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
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