DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
5 October 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk sentiment was mixed in Asia as investors weighed yesterday's positive close in US stock markets against uncertainty about policymakers' ability to solve the European debt crisis. At the time of writing the Nikkei is down by 0.82% and S&P futures are broadly flat. Despite the mixed performance of Asian equity markets, sentiment does appear to have stabilised. EURUSD traded 1.3260-1.3358 and USDJPY 76.61-76.95. In Australia, retail sales rose more than expected, suggesting that consumers are proving resilient to uncertain growth prospects.
Moody's downgraded Italy, mainly on the back of weak growth prospects and increased financing costs and funding risks. The rating agency had warned in June that a downgrade was increasingly likely, so the impact on markets was rather limited, especially as S&P had already downgraded Italy several weeks ago. Moody's also noted that future policy action within the Eurozone could stabilize funding markets again. Separately, press reports suggest that European politicians may have finally accepted the need to recapitalise the banking system.
In the US, Fed Chairman Bernanke said yesterday that the economy is faltering and the Fed is ready to take further action if needed. With inflation expectations falling again, such comments, even if a repetition, are gaining importance and helped US markets close on a positive note yesterday. Ahead of tomorrow's ECB meeting, investors will stay focused on headlines regarding the Eurozone periphery. The US ISM non-manufacturing index will also be closely watched as a gauge of the services sector and hence the standing of the consumer.
EUR
Moody's cut Italy's sovereign rating three notches to A2, outlook negative. This brings Moody's into line with S&P, while Fitch still rates Italy two notches higher. By way of justification Moody's cited implementation risks to Italy's fiscal consolidation program, downside risks to Italian growth, and general funding risks for sovereigns with high levels of debt. The rating agency has already warned in June that a downgrade was increasingly likely. As such impact on markets was rather limited, in particular as S&P already acted several weeks ago. With risk sentiment stabilizing once again and dollar positioning extreme we would advise against shorting the euro ahead of tomorrow's ECB meeting, especially as the risk for disappointing expectations for a rate cut of more than 25bn appears to be high. With risk sentiment appearing to stabilize again and speculative long US dollar positioning extreme, we would advise against shorting the euro ahead of tomorrow's ECB meeting, especially as there is a high risk that expectations of a bigger rate cut may not be borne out.
The Financial Times reported that EU finance ministers have finally accepted the need for bank recapitalizations, and are working on a plan to co-ordinate this effort. This fits with comments by Austrian Finance Minister Fekter who said Eurozone countries now want to evaluate the capital position of their banks. This should be considered a euro positive as it would help banks withstand the impact of a Greek default.
ECB President Trichet said that banking system liquidity is ample, and that liquidity hoarding on precautionary grounds may have already begun. He added that denying the gravity of the situation would be the worst possible mistake.
German Finance Minister Schaeuble said that his 'great worry' is that a banking crisis may develop, and hinted that government-sponsored bank recapitalizations might be used if the crisis escalates.
German Chancellor Merkel said that Germany offering solidarity in Europe is cheaper than for Germany to march on alone.
The Belgian and French finance ministries released a joint statement to the effect that they will guarantee a troubled bank's financing. They said the respective central banks will take all necessary measures to safeguard the bank's account holders and creditors..
GBP
UK September construction PMI was revised lower to 50.1 vs 51.6 consensus. Construction is a minor sector in the UK however, and Wednesday's services PMI will be of greater interest to the BoE.
AUD
Retail sales in August rose by 0.6%, above an expected increase of 0.2%. This suggests that still favourable labour market conditions and hence stable income growth are keeping consumers resilient to uncertain economic growth prospects.
Although the latest data has no impact on the RBA's neutral monetary policy stance, it may help sentiment for the AUD, especially if risk sentiment stabilises again.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
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Wednesday, October 05, 2011
Tuesday, October 04, 2011
4th of October 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
4 October 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD BEARISH Break below 1.3245 has opened support at 1.3089 ahead of the key low at 1.2867. Near-term resistance is at 1.3389.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Initial resistance is at 77.28, while support lies at 76.11.
GBPUSD BEARISH Decline through 1.5433 has opened the key low of 1.5328. Next support is at 1.5251. Resistance is at 1.5666.
USDCHF BULLISH Clearance of 0.9183 has paved the way for 0.9340 and 0.9506. Support lies at 0.8919.
AUDUSD BEARISH Break below 0.9537 has opened 0.9406, channel lower drawn off Aug 1 high, ahead of 0.9331. Initial resistance is at 0.9701.
USDCAD BULLISH Initial resistance is at 1.0569 ahead of 1.0680. Support lies at 1.0352.
EURCHF BULLISH Near-term resistance is at 1.2283 ahead of key resistance area of 1.2346/1.2403. Support lies at 1.2051.
EURGBP BEARISH Pressure is on 0.8530, a key low from Sep. 12; a move below this level would expose 0.8456. Resistance is at 0.8632.
EURJPY BEARISH Clear break below 100.85, channel lower drawn off July 5 high, would open 100.00, a psychological level, ahead of 98.95. Resistance is at 103.23.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
4 October 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD BEARISH Break below 1.3245 has opened support at 1.3089 ahead of the key low at 1.2867. Near-term resistance is at 1.3389.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Initial resistance is at 77.28, while support lies at 76.11.
GBPUSD BEARISH Decline through 1.5433 has opened the key low of 1.5328. Next support is at 1.5251. Resistance is at 1.5666.
USDCHF BULLISH Clearance of 0.9183 has paved the way for 0.9340 and 0.9506. Support lies at 0.8919.
AUDUSD BEARISH Break below 0.9537 has opened 0.9406, channel lower drawn off Aug 1 high, ahead of 0.9331. Initial resistance is at 0.9701.
USDCAD BULLISH Initial resistance is at 1.0569 ahead of 1.0680. Support lies at 1.0352.
EURCHF BULLISH Near-term resistance is at 1.2283 ahead of key resistance area of 1.2346/1.2403. Support lies at 1.2051.
EURGBP BEARISH Pressure is on 0.8530, a key low from Sep. 12; a move below this level would expose 0.8456. Resistance is at 0.8632.
EURJPY BEARISH Clear break below 100.85, channel lower drawn off July 5 high, would open 100.00, a psychological level, ahead of 98.95. Resistance is at 103.23.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
4th of October 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
4 October 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk aversion persisted in Asia on continued worries about the Eurozone periphery. Eurozone finance ministers agreed yesterday that Greece could wait until mid-November until it receives the next aid tranche. Greece was said to be able to run without additional cash until the second week of November. Separately, Eurogroup Chairman Juncker confirmed that discussions are underway to revise the July 21 agreement on private sector participation in a second Greek rescue. Yesterday's meeting produced little in terms of additional steps to enhance the size of the stability fund. The latest reports indicate that the next finance ministers' meeting, which was scheduled for Oct. 13, has been postponed. Elsewhere, the RBA kept rates unchanged in line with market expectations, mainly due to increased uncertainty about global growth prospects. The US ISM was above expectations yesterday but had a short-lived impact on risk sentiment. Most equity market indices are trading lower, with the Nikkei down by 1.44% after declines in US equities. EURUSD traded 1.3163-1.3217 and USDJPY 76.53-76.74. Ahead today investors will remain focused on headlines with respect to Greece. Fed Chairman Bernanke is also due to testify on the economic outlook..
EUR
Eurozone finance ministers met on Monday and as expected, no final decision was taken on whether Greece would receive its next tranche of cash. Greek officials indicated the country will not run out of cash before mid-November.
Juncker repeated that the ambition is to use the EFSF's available funding in a more efficient manner but, in a new development, he stressed that there would be no extra burden for the German taxpayer. He did not elaborate on the leveraging options under consideration, which suggests that a leveraged EFSF is still some way off, if indeed it ever sees the light of day.
Agreement was reached on how collateral arrangements will be handled. As newswires reports had previously suggested, EFSF CEO Regling confirmed that although all countries would be eligible to demand Greek collateral as part of any future contributions to Greece, only Finland was likely to do so. Regling added that countries who receive collateral would have to forego some of the profit earned by lending to Greece. The emergence of agreement on this point is euro-positive at the margin.
The series of manufacturing PMIs were generally revised higher across the Eurozone. German numbers were revised to 50.3 from 50.0, French to 48.2 from 47.3 and Italian 48.3 from 47.0. The composite indicator was inevitably revised higher to 48.5.
GBP
UK September manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 51.1 vs 48.5 consensus. New export orders fell to 45.0 from 46.9 though. Our analyst notes that the underlying UK PMI data series also paint a positive picture - new orders and output are higher, but export volumes have eased - consistent with the slowdown in manufacturing output in the Eurozone and elsewhere.
AUD
The RBA left the overnight cash rate unchanged at 4.75%, in line with market expectations. Rising uncertainty on global growth prospects along with weaker domestic conditions kept the central bank in a wait-and-see mode. The bank also said that the pace of near-term growth will be weaker than previously assumed and that there is less risk of an acceleration in labour costs. Hence the RBA is taking a more relaxed stance with respect to inflation risk.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
4 October 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk aversion persisted in Asia on continued worries about the Eurozone periphery. Eurozone finance ministers agreed yesterday that Greece could wait until mid-November until it receives the next aid tranche. Greece was said to be able to run without additional cash until the second week of November. Separately, Eurogroup Chairman Juncker confirmed that discussions are underway to revise the July 21 agreement on private sector participation in a second Greek rescue. Yesterday's meeting produced little in terms of additional steps to enhance the size of the stability fund. The latest reports indicate that the next finance ministers' meeting, which was scheduled for Oct. 13, has been postponed. Elsewhere, the RBA kept rates unchanged in line with market expectations, mainly due to increased uncertainty about global growth prospects. The US ISM was above expectations yesterday but had a short-lived impact on risk sentiment. Most equity market indices are trading lower, with the Nikkei down by 1.44% after declines in US equities. EURUSD traded 1.3163-1.3217 and USDJPY 76.53-76.74. Ahead today investors will remain focused on headlines with respect to Greece. Fed Chairman Bernanke is also due to testify on the economic outlook..
EUR
Eurozone finance ministers met on Monday and as expected, no final decision was taken on whether Greece would receive its next tranche of cash. Greek officials indicated the country will not run out of cash before mid-November.
Juncker repeated that the ambition is to use the EFSF's available funding in a more efficient manner but, in a new development, he stressed that there would be no extra burden for the German taxpayer. He did not elaborate on the leveraging options under consideration, which suggests that a leveraged EFSF is still some way off, if indeed it ever sees the light of day.
Agreement was reached on how collateral arrangements will be handled. As newswires reports had previously suggested, EFSF CEO Regling confirmed that although all countries would be eligible to demand Greek collateral as part of any future contributions to Greece, only Finland was likely to do so. Regling added that countries who receive collateral would have to forego some of the profit earned by lending to Greece. The emergence of agreement on this point is euro-positive at the margin.
The series of manufacturing PMIs were generally revised higher across the Eurozone. German numbers were revised to 50.3 from 50.0, French to 48.2 from 47.3 and Italian 48.3 from 47.0. The composite indicator was inevitably revised higher to 48.5.
GBP
UK September manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 51.1 vs 48.5 consensus. New export orders fell to 45.0 from 46.9 though. Our analyst notes that the underlying UK PMI data series also paint a positive picture - new orders and output are higher, but export volumes have eased - consistent with the slowdown in manufacturing output in the Eurozone and elsewhere.
AUD
The RBA left the overnight cash rate unchanged at 4.75%, in line with market expectations. Rising uncertainty on global growth prospects along with weaker domestic conditions kept the central bank in a wait-and-see mode. The bank also said that the pace of near-term growth will be weaker than previously assumed and that there is less risk of an acceleration in labour costs. Hence the RBA is taking a more relaxed stance with respect to inflation risk.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Monday, October 03, 2011
3rd of October 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
3 October 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD BEARISH Break below 1.3356 has opened 1.3245 ahead of 1.3089. Near-term resistance is at 1.3601.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Initial support lies at 76.11 ahead of 75.95, the key low. Key resistance is at 77.86.
GBPUSD BEARISH Decline through 1.5526 has opened 1.5433 ahead of 1.5328, key low from Sep. 22. Resistance is at 1.5597.
USDCHF BULLISH Key resistance is at 0.9183 ahead of 0.9340. Support lies at 0.8919.
AUDUSD BEARISH Fall through 0.9537 would open 0.9463 next. Initial resistance is at 0.9810.
USDCAD BULLISH Clear break above 1.0512 would open 1.0569 ahead of 1.0680. Support lies at 1.0352.
EURCHF BULLISH Initial resistance is at 1.2283 ahead of key resistance area of 1.2346/1.2403. Support lies at 1.2051.
EURGBP BEARISH Key support lies at 0.8530; a break below this level would open 0.8474 next. Resistance is at 0.8579.
EURJPY BEARISH Move below 102.85 has opened the way towards 101.94 ahead of the psychological level of 100.00. Resistance is at 104.48.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
3 October 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD BEARISH Break below 1.3356 has opened 1.3245 ahead of 1.3089. Near-term resistance is at 1.3601.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Initial support lies at 76.11 ahead of 75.95, the key low. Key resistance is at 77.86.
GBPUSD BEARISH Decline through 1.5526 has opened 1.5433 ahead of 1.5328, key low from Sep. 22. Resistance is at 1.5597.
USDCHF BULLISH Key resistance is at 0.9183 ahead of 0.9340. Support lies at 0.8919.
AUDUSD BEARISH Fall through 0.9537 would open 0.9463 next. Initial resistance is at 0.9810.
USDCAD BULLISH Clear break above 1.0512 would open 1.0569 ahead of 1.0680. Support lies at 1.0352.
EURCHF BULLISH Initial resistance is at 1.2283 ahead of key resistance area of 1.2346/1.2403. Support lies at 1.2051.
EURGBP BEARISH Key support lies at 0.8530; a break below this level would open 0.8474 next. Resistance is at 0.8579.
EURJPY BEARISH Move below 102.85 has opened the way towards 101.94 ahead of the psychological level of 100.00. Resistance is at 104.48.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
3rd of October 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
3 October 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk sentiment weakened in Asia mainly on lingering worries about the Eurozone periphery and global growth prospects. Greek government draft budget figures show the country is facing larger deficits than previously assumed. This comes as no surprise as published figures were in line with most recent estimations by the IMF. Nevertheless, the government has said additional spending cuts will be undertaken in order to get closer to agreed targets. EU finance ministers will meet today to discuss responses to the debt crisis. Any comments with respect to leveraging the stability fund will be closely followed. In Japan, the BoJ's Q3 Tankan was below expectations, suggesting that the strong yen and uncertainty about global growth prospects are keeping sentiment depressed among the largest manufacturers. Most Asian stock market indices are trading in the red, with the Nikkei down by 2.5%. EURUSD traded 1.3314-1.3380 and USDJPY 76.97-77.26.
On Friday, St Louis Fed President Bullard (non-voter) said that if the economy deteriorates, "monetary policy will respond", adding that the Fed is not "out of ammunition". Dallas Fed President Fisher, a dissenting hawk, continued to sound increasingly concerned about the state of the economy. Although he did not think current weakness would develop into a double-dip, he said the economy was "on an edge here". Apart from the EU finance ministers' meeting, markets will be watching the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for indications of US growth conditions and prospects.
EUR
Government draft budget figures show Greece is facing larger deficits than previously assumed. GDP is now predicted to fall by 5.5% this year and by 2-2.5 % in 2012. A deficit of 8.5% of GDP is expected for 2011, well above the previously agreed target of 7.6%. Although those numbers are worse than assumed, they are in line with most recent calculations by the IMF. Hence they do not come as a major surprise and should not derail Greece's current negotiations with the troika. Greece pledged to undertake additional spending cuts in order to secure the next aid tranche. We remain of the view that Greece will ultimately receive its current bailout tranche.
The ECB's Noyer said that it is unrealistic to expect an increase in size of the EFSF. This is in line with comments from German Finance Minister Schaeuble last week. However, Noyer also said that he is open to any scheme that would allow existing commitments to be leveraged.
The monthly Eurogroup meeting of Eurozone finance ministers is due to get underway at 1600GMT on Monday. Press reports suggest that the question of how to leverage the EFSF will dominate the agenda. An additional Eurogroup meeting (to be scheduled later in October) is due to decide if Greece is to receive its next quarterly instalment. Greek news reports indicate that the troika will remain in Greece until Friday, continuing their quarterly inspection.
Irish Prime Minister Kenny said that he was opposed to changing the Lisbon Treaty to enable deeper European fiscal integration. Irish sovereign bonds continue to advance and yields are now below where they traded when the EU/IMF rescue was agreed in Q4 2010.
CHF
According to ECB's Noyer the SNB's decision to set a floor in EURCHF confirms the optimistic future of the euro.
The KOF leading indicator was much weaker than consensus expectations, with the headline number coming in at 1.21 (cons. 1.30), down from 1.61 last month. Our Swiss economist notes that this indicates a significant slowdown in the Swiss economy, but that the print was taken at the height of CHF strength and so we would expect a slight improvement going forward.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
3 October 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk sentiment weakened in Asia mainly on lingering worries about the Eurozone periphery and global growth prospects. Greek government draft budget figures show the country is facing larger deficits than previously assumed. This comes as no surprise as published figures were in line with most recent estimations by the IMF. Nevertheless, the government has said additional spending cuts will be undertaken in order to get closer to agreed targets. EU finance ministers will meet today to discuss responses to the debt crisis. Any comments with respect to leveraging the stability fund will be closely followed. In Japan, the BoJ's Q3 Tankan was below expectations, suggesting that the strong yen and uncertainty about global growth prospects are keeping sentiment depressed among the largest manufacturers. Most Asian stock market indices are trading in the red, with the Nikkei down by 2.5%. EURUSD traded 1.3314-1.3380 and USDJPY 76.97-77.26.
On Friday, St Louis Fed President Bullard (non-voter) said that if the economy deteriorates, "monetary policy will respond", adding that the Fed is not "out of ammunition". Dallas Fed President Fisher, a dissenting hawk, continued to sound increasingly concerned about the state of the economy. Although he did not think current weakness would develop into a double-dip, he said the economy was "on an edge here". Apart from the EU finance ministers' meeting, markets will be watching the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for indications of US growth conditions and prospects.
EUR
Government draft budget figures show Greece is facing larger deficits than previously assumed. GDP is now predicted to fall by 5.5% this year and by 2-2.5 % in 2012. A deficit of 8.5% of GDP is expected for 2011, well above the previously agreed target of 7.6%. Although those numbers are worse than assumed, they are in line with most recent calculations by the IMF. Hence they do not come as a major surprise and should not derail Greece's current negotiations with the troika. Greece pledged to undertake additional spending cuts in order to secure the next aid tranche. We remain of the view that Greece will ultimately receive its current bailout tranche.
The ECB's Noyer said that it is unrealistic to expect an increase in size of the EFSF. This is in line with comments from German Finance Minister Schaeuble last week. However, Noyer also said that he is open to any scheme that would allow existing commitments to be leveraged.
The monthly Eurogroup meeting of Eurozone finance ministers is due to get underway at 1600GMT on Monday. Press reports suggest that the question of how to leverage the EFSF will dominate the agenda. An additional Eurogroup meeting (to be scheduled later in October) is due to decide if Greece is to receive its next quarterly instalment. Greek news reports indicate that the troika will remain in Greece until Friday, continuing their quarterly inspection.
Irish Prime Minister Kenny said that he was opposed to changing the Lisbon Treaty to enable deeper European fiscal integration. Irish sovereign bonds continue to advance and yields are now below where they traded when the EU/IMF rescue was agreed in Q4 2010.
CHF
According to ECB's Noyer the SNB's decision to set a floor in EURCHF confirms the optimistic future of the euro.
The KOF leading indicator was much weaker than consensus expectations, with the headline number coming in at 1.21 (cons. 1.30), down from 1.61 last month. Our Swiss economist notes that this indicates a significant slowdown in the Swiss economy, but that the print was taken at the height of CHF strength and so we would expect a slight improvement going forward.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
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