DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
29 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURGBP stalled at 0.8724/42.
EURUSD BULLISH Rise above 1.4905 would pave the way towards 1.5000 and 1.5038. Support lies at 1.4633.
USDJPY BEARISH Losses held at 81.27, move below this would expose 80.89/69 area. Initial resistance is at 82.79.
GBPUSD BULLISH Initial resistance is at 1.6747, yesterday's reaction high; move above the level would expose 1.6878. Support is at 1.6432.
USDCHF BEARISH While resistance at 0.8893 holds, there is scope for weakness towards 0.8671/65 area.
AUDUSD BULLISH Momentum is positive; break of initial resistance at 1.1000 would expose 1.1017. Near-term support is at 1.0775.
USDCAD BEARISH Focus on 0.9455/46 support area, break of which would open 0.9400 next. Resistance lies at 0.9576.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Model has turned neutral; break of 1.2974 would favor upside, while a move below 1.2730 would signal continuation of the bear trend.
EURGBP BULLISH Stalled ahead of 0.8924/42 resistance area, break through this would open 0.9000 next. Support lies at 0.8847.
EURJPY BULLISH A break above 122.41 would clear the way for a bull run towards 123.33 key resistance. Support lies at 120.00.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
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Friday, April 29, 2011
29th of April 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
29 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
With Japan on holiday, and the FOMC statement fully digested, the price action during the Asia session was relatively subdued. EURUSD traded 1.4773-1.4848, USDJPY 81.47-81.71. Earlier, US equities closed modestly positive and Treasury yields moved lower across the curve. Gold made no further gains and is trading at $1532.52 at the time of writing. US real GDP rose at a +1.8% annual rate in Q1, below consensus estimates. However, given Fed Chairman Bernanke's warning that the number could be weak, the US dollar was not unduly affected. The deceleration mainly reflected a slowing of consumer spending growth and a drag from the government sector. In other data, jobless claims jumped, which probably reflected Easter distortions. Having said that, the downtrend in claims does appear to have paused for now. Chicago PMI and the University of Michigan confidence index are due but are not likely on their own to revive the dollar's fortunes.
EUR
Sovereign CDS spreads in the Eurozone finally tightened and bond yields moved lower. Talks on the proposed program of external assistance for Portugal continue, but have not yet reached a conclusion. There were further headlines from Eurozone officials, denying a Greek debt restructuring.
ECB Governing Council member Mersch said the ECB will continue its gradual exit from its non-standard measures at an appropriate pace, and said the ECB never takes measures aimed at supporting banks in one particular country.
The flash estimate for Eurozone April CPI is due and is expected to remain in line with the March level at 2.7% y/y.
Germany's seasonally adjusted jobless rate for April was unchanged at 7.1% (cons. 7.0%). Unemployment numbers fell 37k.
The Swiss KoF print is likely to remain broadly stable, dipping marginally to 2.12 from the last reading of 2.24 but at the moment the CHF is driven by external factors and we question whether current gains are sustainable.
CAD
Our analysts expect -0.1% m/m for GDP in February, versus consensus 0.0%. Even if growth does slip, this would only be the third monthly decline in the past 21 months. The BoC has recently upped its 2011 GDP forecast, which means a weak monthly print today could be shrugged off.
NZD
The NZD was briefly boosted by a larger than expected trade surplus, which came in at NZ$464 mn (consensus NZ$200 mn).
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
29 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
With Japan on holiday, and the FOMC statement fully digested, the price action during the Asia session was relatively subdued. EURUSD traded 1.4773-1.4848, USDJPY 81.47-81.71. Earlier, US equities closed modestly positive and Treasury yields moved lower across the curve. Gold made no further gains and is trading at $1532.52 at the time of writing. US real GDP rose at a +1.8% annual rate in Q1, below consensus estimates. However, given Fed Chairman Bernanke's warning that the number could be weak, the US dollar was not unduly affected. The deceleration mainly reflected a slowing of consumer spending growth and a drag from the government sector. In other data, jobless claims jumped, which probably reflected Easter distortions. Having said that, the downtrend in claims does appear to have paused for now. Chicago PMI and the University of Michigan confidence index are due but are not likely on their own to revive the dollar's fortunes.
EUR
Sovereign CDS spreads in the Eurozone finally tightened and bond yields moved lower. Talks on the proposed program of external assistance for Portugal continue, but have not yet reached a conclusion. There were further headlines from Eurozone officials, denying a Greek debt restructuring.
ECB Governing Council member Mersch said the ECB will continue its gradual exit from its non-standard measures at an appropriate pace, and said the ECB never takes measures aimed at supporting banks in one particular country.
The flash estimate for Eurozone April CPI is due and is expected to remain in line with the March level at 2.7% y/y.
Germany's seasonally adjusted jobless rate for April was unchanged at 7.1% (cons. 7.0%). Unemployment numbers fell 37k.
The Swiss KoF print is likely to remain broadly stable, dipping marginally to 2.12 from the last reading of 2.24 but at the moment the CHF is driven by external factors and we question whether current gains are sustainable.
CAD
Our analysts expect -0.1% m/m for GDP in February, versus consensus 0.0%. Even if growth does slip, this would only be the third monthly decline in the past 21 months. The BoC has recently upped its 2011 GDP forecast, which means a weak monthly print today could be shrugged off.
NZD
The NZD was briefly boosted by a larger than expected trade surplus, which came in at NZ$464 mn (consensus NZ$200 mn).
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Thursday, April 28, 2011
28th of April 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
28 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD 1.5000 resistance
EURUSD BULLISH Rise through 1.4736/76 resistance area has exposed 1.5000. Support lies at 1.4769 intraday low.
USDJPY BEARISH Move below initial support 81.27 would expose 80.89. Initial resistance is at 82.79.
GBPUSD BULLISH The pair gained through 1.6599 and 1.6672 to expose 1.6878 key resistance. Support is at 1.6621 intraday low.
USDCHF BEARISH While resistance at 0.8893 holds, there is scope for weakness towards 0.8671/65 area.
AUDUSD BULLISH The pair targets 1.1000 with scope for 1.1017 next. Near-term support is at 1.0852.
USDCAD BEARISH Break of 0.9488 has exposed 0.9455/46 area, while resistance lies at 0.9576.
EURCHF BEARISH Key support is at 1.2730, move below this would pave the way towards 1.2624, while resistance lies at 1.2974.
EURGBP BULLISH Upside pressure on 0.8924/42 area, break through this would open 0.9000 next. Support lies at 0.8800.
EURJPY BULLISH Break of 121.48 has exposed 122.41 ahead of 123.33. Support lies at 120.00.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
28 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD 1.5000 resistance
EURUSD BULLISH Rise through 1.4736/76 resistance area has exposed 1.5000. Support lies at 1.4769 intraday low.
USDJPY BEARISH Move below initial support 81.27 would expose 80.89. Initial resistance is at 82.79.
GBPUSD BULLISH The pair gained through 1.6599 and 1.6672 to expose 1.6878 key resistance. Support is at 1.6621 intraday low.
USDCHF BEARISH While resistance at 0.8893 holds, there is scope for weakness towards 0.8671/65 area.
AUDUSD BULLISH The pair targets 1.1000 with scope for 1.1017 next. Near-term support is at 1.0852.
USDCAD BEARISH Break of 0.9488 has exposed 0.9455/46 area, while resistance lies at 0.9576.
EURCHF BEARISH Key support is at 1.2730, move below this would pave the way towards 1.2624, while resistance lies at 1.2974.
EURGBP BULLISH Upside pressure on 0.8924/42 area, break through this would open 0.9000 next. Support lies at 0.8800.
EURJPY BULLISH Break of 121.48 has exposed 122.41 ahead of 123.33. Support lies at 120.00.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
28th of April 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
28 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar remained on the defensive throughout the Asia session as risk appetite continued to improve in the wake of the latest FOMC policy statement. EURUSD traded 1.4683-1.4882, USDJPY 81.62-82.50. The S&P 500 closed up +0.62% at another multi-year high, and Asian equities are moderately ahead at the time of writing. The BoJ made no material change to policy. The FOMC statement was similar to that issued in March, but crucially, committed to continuing QE2 until June. The text kept the key "exceptionally low&for an extended period" language, and no dissenting votes were cast. Fed officials acknowledged recent weakness and lowered their 2011 central tendency GDP projections and raised core inflation projections. At his inaugural press conference, Chairman Bernanke said there would be no need to taper QE2 purchases. He said, after June, the next possible step in policy normalisation might be to no longer reinvest cash flows from maturing balance sheet assets. However, he appeared to be in no hurry to take this additional step. Although he accepted inflation and inflation expectations had pushed higher, he continues to see these as "transitory". Bernanke added that a strong dollar is in the interests of the US. Our US economists expect today's Q1 GDP estimate to come in well below consensus.
EUR
The euro again shrugged off widening yields and spreads on Greek debt instruments and CDS on the back of broader-based dollar concerns. The yield on 2-year notes climbed to around 25% for the first time in Eurozone history. The press reported that Portugal's EU/IMF bailout package could be handed to the government by the end of the week.
Eurozone new industrial orders in February rose 21.3% y/y vs 21.8% consensus.
JPY
The BoJ kept policy unchanged at their latest meeting. The target range for the policy rate remains at 0-0.1%. JGB purchases will continue at a pace of approximately JPY1.8 trn per month, and the ceiling on the new asset purchase facility is to remain at JPY10 trn. Deputy Governor Nishimura dissented in favour of expanding the facility's maximum size to JPY15 trn.
GBP
UK Q1 GDP came in at 0.5% q/q and 1.8% y/y vs -0.5% q/q and +1.5% y/y in Q4. While the number is in line with expectations, the market had expected a slightly weaker print and sterling rallied as a consequence. Our economist has pushed back his first rate hike forecast from May to August of this year.
NZD
The RBNZ kept the policy rate unchanged and in the press release officials noted that "the current level of the OCR is likely to remain appropriate for some time." They also mentioned that "higher oil prices and the elevated level of the New Zealand dollar are both unwelcome."
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
28 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar remained on the defensive throughout the Asia session as risk appetite continued to improve in the wake of the latest FOMC policy statement. EURUSD traded 1.4683-1.4882, USDJPY 81.62-82.50. The S&P 500 closed up +0.62% at another multi-year high, and Asian equities are moderately ahead at the time of writing. The BoJ made no material change to policy. The FOMC statement was similar to that issued in March, but crucially, committed to continuing QE2 until June. The text kept the key "exceptionally low&for an extended period" language, and no dissenting votes were cast. Fed officials acknowledged recent weakness and lowered their 2011 central tendency GDP projections and raised core inflation projections. At his inaugural press conference, Chairman Bernanke said there would be no need to taper QE2 purchases. He said, after June, the next possible step in policy normalisation might be to no longer reinvest cash flows from maturing balance sheet assets. However, he appeared to be in no hurry to take this additional step. Although he accepted inflation and inflation expectations had pushed higher, he continues to see these as "transitory". Bernanke added that a strong dollar is in the interests of the US. Our US economists expect today's Q1 GDP estimate to come in well below consensus.
EUR
The euro again shrugged off widening yields and spreads on Greek debt instruments and CDS on the back of broader-based dollar concerns. The yield on 2-year notes climbed to around 25% for the first time in Eurozone history. The press reported that Portugal's EU/IMF bailout package could be handed to the government by the end of the week.
Eurozone new industrial orders in February rose 21.3% y/y vs 21.8% consensus.
JPY
The BoJ kept policy unchanged at their latest meeting. The target range for the policy rate remains at 0-0.1%. JGB purchases will continue at a pace of approximately JPY1.8 trn per month, and the ceiling on the new asset purchase facility is to remain at JPY10 trn. Deputy Governor Nishimura dissented in favour of expanding the facility's maximum size to JPY15 trn.
GBP
UK Q1 GDP came in at 0.5% q/q and 1.8% y/y vs -0.5% q/q and +1.5% y/y in Q4. While the number is in line with expectations, the market had expected a slightly weaker print and sterling rallied as a consequence. Our economist has pushed back his first rate hike forecast from May to August of this year.
NZD
The RBNZ kept the policy rate unchanged and in the press release officials noted that "the current level of the OCR is likely to remain appropriate for some time." They also mentioned that "higher oil prices and the elevated level of the New Zealand dollar are both unwelcome."
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
27th of April 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
27 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar continued to weaken during the Asia session, ahead of today's FOMC decision and the much anticipated inaugural post-meeting press conference. EURUSD traded 1.4626-1.4714, USDJPY 81.27-81.78. We think the most likely outcome is one where the FOMC and Chairman Bernanke more or less reiterate the March statement, and postpone any final decision on QE2 until the June 22 meeting. The latest Fed central tendency projections should also be released with the decision. Asian equities pushed higher after earlier gains in the US session following a series of mostly positive corporate earnings reports. Gold continues to recover and US Treasury notes are higher too, suggesting the market sees little risk that QE2 will be cut short at today's meeting.
The S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index were largely as expected, though the Richmond Fed manufacturing index was the latest regional index to unexpectedly dip. Durable goods are due ahead of the Fed's decision and the 5y Treasury auction has been moved to 1530 GMT. Treasury Secretary Geithner said the US will never seek to weaken the dollar and that a strong dollar is in the US' interests, echoing recent sentiments by ECB President Trichet.
EUR
The euro shrugged off Eurostat's latest upward revision to Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio, which took the 2010 debt level up to 142.8% of GDP from 127.1% in 2009. Clearly Fed policy remains firmly in focus and Eurozone sovereign risk is, for the moment at least, a matter of secondary importance.
German Government advisor Feld said that Greece cannot avoid debt restructuring. Feld is a member of the council of economic advisors, and not a member of the government, so his view does not reflect an official German position.
Spanish T-bill auctions were generally well received but the yield increased compared to previous auctions with the 3-month increasing to 1.371% and the 6-month to 1.867%.
JPY
S&P affirmed Japan's rating at AA-, but lowered the outlook on the rating to negative from stable, citing fiscal concerns over the cost of the post-earthquake rebuild. USDJPY pushed about 35 pips higher on the news, before partially settling back down as the session wore on.
Post-earthquake economic data continues to deteriorate. Retail sales in March fell -8.5% y/y (cons. -6.1%), the biggest annualised drop since 1998.
GBP
The advance Q1 GDP figure is due and our UK economist is looking for +0.4% q/q, +1.70% y/y, slightly below consensus but higher than Q4. A print below +0.7% q/q could put a potential May rate hike in jeopardy. Rate expectations have already come off but sterling could be further disappointed should GDP push out rate hikes.
The UK CBI manufacturing data was softer with the order book balance -11 (cons. +3) in April vs +5 in March. Export optimism, one of the key markets helping UK manufacturers according to the BoE came in at 6, weaker than March's 18.
AUD
AUDUSD shot through 1.0850 after Q1 CPI came in much stronger than expected, rising +1.6% q/q (cons. 1.2%) and +3.3% y/y (cons. 3.0%). Our Australian economists do not think the upside surprise will alarm the RBA unduly, and they maintain their view that the next rate hike will probably come in August.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
27 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar continued to weaken during the Asia session, ahead of today's FOMC decision and the much anticipated inaugural post-meeting press conference. EURUSD traded 1.4626-1.4714, USDJPY 81.27-81.78. We think the most likely outcome is one where the FOMC and Chairman Bernanke more or less reiterate the March statement, and postpone any final decision on QE2 until the June 22 meeting. The latest Fed central tendency projections should also be released with the decision. Asian equities pushed higher after earlier gains in the US session following a series of mostly positive corporate earnings reports. Gold continues to recover and US Treasury notes are higher too, suggesting the market sees little risk that QE2 will be cut short at today's meeting.
The S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index were largely as expected, though the Richmond Fed manufacturing index was the latest regional index to unexpectedly dip. Durable goods are due ahead of the Fed's decision and the 5y Treasury auction has been moved to 1530 GMT. Treasury Secretary Geithner said the US will never seek to weaken the dollar and that a strong dollar is in the US' interests, echoing recent sentiments by ECB President Trichet.
EUR
The euro shrugged off Eurostat's latest upward revision to Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio, which took the 2010 debt level up to 142.8% of GDP from 127.1% in 2009. Clearly Fed policy remains firmly in focus and Eurozone sovereign risk is, for the moment at least, a matter of secondary importance.
German Government advisor Feld said that Greece cannot avoid debt restructuring. Feld is a member of the council of economic advisors, and not a member of the government, so his view does not reflect an official German position.
Spanish T-bill auctions were generally well received but the yield increased compared to previous auctions with the 3-month increasing to 1.371% and the 6-month to 1.867%.
JPY
S&P affirmed Japan's rating at AA-, but lowered the outlook on the rating to negative from stable, citing fiscal concerns over the cost of the post-earthquake rebuild. USDJPY pushed about 35 pips higher on the news, before partially settling back down as the session wore on.
Post-earthquake economic data continues to deteriorate. Retail sales in March fell -8.5% y/y (cons. -6.1%), the biggest annualised drop since 1998.
GBP
The advance Q1 GDP figure is due and our UK economist is looking for +0.4% q/q, +1.70% y/y, slightly below consensus but higher than Q4. A print below +0.7% q/q could put a potential May rate hike in jeopardy. Rate expectations have already come off but sterling could be further disappointed should GDP push out rate hikes.
The UK CBI manufacturing data was softer with the order book balance -11 (cons. +3) in April vs +5 in March. Export optimism, one of the key markets helping UK manufacturers according to the BoE came in at 6, weaker than March's 18.
AUD
AUDUSD shot through 1.0850 after Q1 CPI came in much stronger than expected, rising +1.6% q/q (cons. 1.2%) and +3.3% y/y (cons. 3.0%). Our Australian economists do not think the upside surprise will alarm the RBA unduly, and they maintain their view that the next rate hike will probably come in August.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
27th of April 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
27 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD heads towards 1.4736/76
EURUSD BULLISH Following the break of 1.4685 the pair now heads towards 1.4736/76 area. Support lies at 1.4500.
USDJPY BEARISH Push below 81.55 has exposed 80.89, while resistance is at 82.43.
GBPUSD BULLISH Look for gains towards 1.6553/99 area ahead of 1.6672, while support at 1.6387 is intact.
USDCHF BEARISH The decline today took out 0.8700, support level, to expose 0.8665. Near-term resistance is at 0.8893.
AUDUSD BULLISH Climb through 1.0845 has exposed 1.1000. Near-term support is at 1.0677.
USDCAD BEARISH Support is at 0.9455/46 area, while resistance at 0.9600 holds.
EURCHF BEARISH Targets 1.2730 key support; a break here would pave the way for weakness towards 1.2624. Initial resistance is at 1.2880.
EURGBP BULLISH Focus is on 0.8924/42 area; next resistance at 0.9000. Support lies at 0.8800.
EURJPY NEUTRAL 120.39 and 118.27 mark the short-term directional triggers.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
27 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD heads towards 1.4736/76
EURUSD BULLISH Following the break of 1.4685 the pair now heads towards 1.4736/76 area. Support lies at 1.4500.
USDJPY BEARISH Push below 81.55 has exposed 80.89, while resistance is at 82.43.
GBPUSD BULLISH Look for gains towards 1.6553/99 area ahead of 1.6672, while support at 1.6387 is intact.
USDCHF BEARISH The decline today took out 0.8700, support level, to expose 0.8665. Near-term resistance is at 0.8893.
AUDUSD BULLISH Climb through 1.0845 has exposed 1.1000. Near-term support is at 1.0677.
USDCAD BEARISH Support is at 0.9455/46 area, while resistance at 0.9600 holds.
EURCHF BEARISH Targets 1.2730 key support; a break here would pave the way for weakness towards 1.2624. Initial resistance is at 1.2880.
EURGBP BULLISH Focus is on 0.8924/42 area; next resistance at 0.9000. Support lies at 0.8800.
EURJPY NEUTRAL 120.39 and 118.27 mark the short-term directional triggers.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
26th of April 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
26 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
GBPUSD 1.6387 support
EURUSD BULLISH Focus is on 1.4649/85 resistance zone, break of this would open 1.4776 next. Support is at 1.4500.
USDJPY BEARISH Move below 81.62/55 support area would open the way towards 80.69. Resistance is at 82.60.
GBPUSD BULLISH As long as support at 1.6387 holds, look for gains towards 1.6553/99 area ahead of 1.6672.
USDCHF BEARISH While resistance at 0.9000 holds, look for further weakness towards 0.8769/00 area.
AUDUSD BULLISH Move above initial resistance at 1.0845 would expose 1.1000. Near-term support is at 1.0584.
USDCAD BEARISH Break through 0.9600 would trigger a short term reversal, while support is at 0.9455/46.
EURCHF BEARISH Focus is on initial support at 1.2801, break of this would expose 1.2730. Resistance is at 1.2974.
EURGBP BULLISH Momentum is positive; focus on initial resistance 0.8879, break of this would expose 0.8924/42 area. Support lies at 0.8780.
EURJPY NEUTRAL Resistance is at 120.39/71 zone, while support is at 118.27.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
26 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
GBPUSD 1.6387 support
EURUSD BULLISH Focus is on 1.4649/85 resistance zone, break of this would open 1.4776 next. Support is at 1.4500.
USDJPY BEARISH Move below 81.62/55 support area would open the way towards 80.69. Resistance is at 82.60.
GBPUSD BULLISH As long as support at 1.6387 holds, look for gains towards 1.6553/99 area ahead of 1.6672.
USDCHF BEARISH While resistance at 0.9000 holds, look for further weakness towards 0.8769/00 area.
AUDUSD BULLISH Move above initial resistance at 1.0845 would expose 1.1000. Near-term support is at 1.0584.
USDCAD BEARISH Break through 0.9600 would trigger a short term reversal, while support is at 0.9455/46.
EURCHF BEARISH Focus is on initial support at 1.2801, break of this would expose 1.2730. Resistance is at 1.2974.
EURGBP BULLISH Momentum is positive; focus on initial resistance 0.8879, break of this would expose 0.8924/42 area. Support lies at 0.8780.
EURJPY NEUTRAL Resistance is at 120.39/71 zone, while support is at 118.27.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
26th of April 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
26 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar got a boost when a major futures exchange raised silver margin requirements, prompting a wave of profit taking in gold and silver, which soon spread to FX markets, though ECB President Trichet also exerted an influence when he said a strong dollar is in the interests of the US. EURUSD traded 1.4494-1.4588, USDJPY 81.57-81.98. Gold is trading just below $1501/oz at the time of writing. US new home sales were roughly in line with estimates at 11.1% m/m (consensus 12.0%). The February decline was revised higher to -13.5% m/m. The Dallas Fed manufacturing index was unexpectedly soft, in line with some weakening across other regional manufacturing indexes in April. Housing remains a concern and confidence measures are being scrutinized to gauge the effect of higher oil and gasoline prices on the consumer. But neither the upcoming S&P/Case Shiller index nor the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index will be conclusive enough to affect the dollar, given the looming FOMC decision and Q1 GDP advance estimate.
EUR
ECB Governing Council member Liikanen said inflation expectations are well-anchored but the ECB will work to prevent any second-round effects. He said that inflation pressures in emerging countries could complicate monetary policy in the ECB. Liikanen also mentioned that any potential restructuring of Greek debt would not solve any fundamental economic problems.
JPY
BoJ Governor Shirakawa said the bank could reassess a recently introduce lending program, which keeps the possibility of some changes at this week's policy meeting. Shirakawa also said that it is undesirable for the BoJ to underwrite government debt, which was in line with comments by DPJ member Nakagawa, who leads a committee tasked with drafting a bill to facilitate Japan's reconstruction. Nakagawa ruled out asking the BoJ to directly underwrite bonds issued to fund the programm.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
26 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar got a boost when a major futures exchange raised silver margin requirements, prompting a wave of profit taking in gold and silver, which soon spread to FX markets, though ECB President Trichet also exerted an influence when he said a strong dollar is in the interests of the US. EURUSD traded 1.4494-1.4588, USDJPY 81.57-81.98. Gold is trading just below $1501/oz at the time of writing. US new home sales were roughly in line with estimates at 11.1% m/m (consensus 12.0%). The February decline was revised higher to -13.5% m/m. The Dallas Fed manufacturing index was unexpectedly soft, in line with some weakening across other regional manufacturing indexes in April. Housing remains a concern and confidence measures are being scrutinized to gauge the effect of higher oil and gasoline prices on the consumer. But neither the upcoming S&P/Case Shiller index nor the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index will be conclusive enough to affect the dollar, given the looming FOMC decision and Q1 GDP advance estimate.
EUR
ECB Governing Council member Liikanen said inflation expectations are well-anchored but the ECB will work to prevent any second-round effects. He said that inflation pressures in emerging countries could complicate monetary policy in the ECB. Liikanen also mentioned that any potential restructuring of Greek debt would not solve any fundamental economic problems.
JPY
BoJ Governor Shirakawa said the bank could reassess a recently introduce lending program, which keeps the possibility of some changes at this week's policy meeting. Shirakawa also said that it is undesirable for the BoJ to underwrite government debt, which was in line with comments by DPJ member Nakagawa, who leads a committee tasked with drafting a bill to facilitate Japan's reconstruction. Nakagawa ruled out asking the BoJ to directly underwrite bonds issued to fund the programm.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Monday, April 25, 2011
25th of April 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
25 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURJPY 120.71 resistance
EURUSD BULLISH Break of 1.4685 would expose 1.4776 ahead of 1.4905. Support lies at 1.4328.
USDJPY BEARISH Move below 81.55/31 support area would open the way to 80.69. Resistance is at 82.60 ahead of 83.10.
GBPUSD BULLISH Focus is on 1.6672, break here would expose 1.6722. Initial support is at 1.6386.
USDCHF BEARISH Decline through 0.8852/23 has exposed support at 0.8769. Near-term resistance lies at 0.9012.
AUDUSD BULLISH Momentum is positive; initial resistance is at 1.0845, while support lies at 1.0519.
USDCAD BEARISH Support is at 0.9446/00 area. Resistance is at 0.9600.
EURCHF BEARISH Break of 1.2730 would expose 1.2624; while resistance holds at 1.3000.
EURGBP BULLISH Move below 0.8741 would hurt the bull trend and expose 0.8714. Resistance is 0.8882 ahead of 0.8924/42 area.
EURJPY NEUTRAL Climb through 120.71 would signal potential for gains to 121.48 and 122.41 next. Support is at 118.00.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
25 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURJPY 120.71 resistance
EURUSD BULLISH Break of 1.4685 would expose 1.4776 ahead of 1.4905. Support lies at 1.4328.
USDJPY BEARISH Move below 81.55/31 support area would open the way to 80.69. Resistance is at 82.60 ahead of 83.10.
GBPUSD BULLISH Focus is on 1.6672, break here would expose 1.6722. Initial support is at 1.6386.
USDCHF BEARISH Decline through 0.8852/23 has exposed support at 0.8769. Near-term resistance lies at 0.9012.
AUDUSD BULLISH Momentum is positive; initial resistance is at 1.0845, while support lies at 1.0519.
USDCAD BEARISH Support is at 0.9446/00 area. Resistance is at 0.9600.
EURCHF BEARISH Break of 1.2730 would expose 1.2624; while resistance holds at 1.3000.
EURGBP BULLISH Move below 0.8741 would hurt the bull trend and expose 0.8714. Resistance is 0.8882 ahead of 0.8924/42 area.
EURJPY NEUTRAL Climb through 120.71 would signal potential for gains to 121.48 and 122.41 next. Support is at 118.00.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
25th of April 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
25 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar managed to recoup some of its recent losses amid a quiet, pre-holiday session as risk sentiment was not as boisterous as earlier in the week. The Australian and New Zealand dollars held their ground versus the dollar but the other G10 currencies ceded ground as the session progressed. Equities finished modestly positive and longer-dated Treasury yields were moving up before the session ended early per the holiday. WTI and gold are $112.28 and $1505.23 at the time of writing. EURUSD traded 1.4533-1.4619, USDJPY 81.63-82.06. The economic releases were disappointing but the extent of the dollar sell-off overshadowed them, which allowed the dollar some breathing room. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey fell to 18.5, well below consensus, but the level still indicates sold growth. The leading economic index rose 0.4% and jobless claims was above expectations at +403k. The claims data will be watched closely to see if the trend turns sideways or perhaps edges up. There are no releases given the holiday but there is event risk in the weekend surrounding hopes of CNY appreciation and speedy resolution to Eurozone issues. The week ahead will be active, with the FOMC decision, Fed Chairman Bernanke's first press conference and the advance Q1 GDP estimate. But until then, the dollar could remain under pressure.
EUR
The euro weakened and several of the crosses returned to levels seen at the beginning of the week. Event risk related to sovereign worries remains for the euro but it seems today's weakening, along with the gains earlier in the week, were largely driven by external factors and overall risk sentiment.
ECB President Trichet noted that he did not see any significant second round effects at present, and said the ECB had not decided on a series of rate rises. He also noted that a strong dollar is also in the interest of the international community. The market is to some degree trading off yield expectations and these comments could have contributed to the broader euro moves.
The IFO business climate index came down to 110.4 from 111.1. However, our economists note the slight decline means more confirmation that lead indicators are turning, so growth has probably peaked. Yet it does not provide a reason for the ECB to postpone further rates hikes. The absolute level of the IFO index is still close to all-time highs, and the German economy is still growing strongly, so there is little reason for the ECB to turn more cautious.
GBP
The BoE's Weale said the fall in March inflation was surprising but it is just one month's data. He said the division between policymakers is smaller than generally portrayed but then he also said the he wouldn't be surprised to see Q1 GDP q/q growth below 0.7%. Weale's comments are interesting as he was one of the hawkish voters and his weaker GDP comment again puts the focus on Wed's GDP print - out UK economist says that something below 0.7% q/q could make a May rate hike less likely
Retail sales figures overnight were better than expected, showing a 0.2%m/m gain for the core number vs. expectations of a decline of -0.4%. Policy expectations have likely recovered somewhat but sterling's performance up ahead would remain data-dependent.
CAD
Canadian retail sales advanced slightly less than expected at 0.4% m/m but the ex-autos figure beat expectations at 0.7% m/m. The Canadian dollar, though, weakened versus the dollar as risk sentiment was more muted than previous sessions.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
25 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar managed to recoup some of its recent losses amid a quiet, pre-holiday session as risk sentiment was not as boisterous as earlier in the week. The Australian and New Zealand dollars held their ground versus the dollar but the other G10 currencies ceded ground as the session progressed. Equities finished modestly positive and longer-dated Treasury yields were moving up before the session ended early per the holiday. WTI and gold are $112.28 and $1505.23 at the time of writing. EURUSD traded 1.4533-1.4619, USDJPY 81.63-82.06. The economic releases were disappointing but the extent of the dollar sell-off overshadowed them, which allowed the dollar some breathing room. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey fell to 18.5, well below consensus, but the level still indicates sold growth. The leading economic index rose 0.4% and jobless claims was above expectations at +403k. The claims data will be watched closely to see if the trend turns sideways or perhaps edges up. There are no releases given the holiday but there is event risk in the weekend surrounding hopes of CNY appreciation and speedy resolution to Eurozone issues. The week ahead will be active, with the FOMC decision, Fed Chairman Bernanke's first press conference and the advance Q1 GDP estimate. But until then, the dollar could remain under pressure.
EUR
The euro weakened and several of the crosses returned to levels seen at the beginning of the week. Event risk related to sovereign worries remains for the euro but it seems today's weakening, along with the gains earlier in the week, were largely driven by external factors and overall risk sentiment.
ECB President Trichet noted that he did not see any significant second round effects at present, and said the ECB had not decided on a series of rate rises. He also noted that a strong dollar is also in the interest of the international community. The market is to some degree trading off yield expectations and these comments could have contributed to the broader euro moves.
The IFO business climate index came down to 110.4 from 111.1. However, our economists note the slight decline means more confirmation that lead indicators are turning, so growth has probably peaked. Yet it does not provide a reason for the ECB to postpone further rates hikes. The absolute level of the IFO index is still close to all-time highs, and the German economy is still growing strongly, so there is little reason for the ECB to turn more cautious.
GBP
The BoE's Weale said the fall in March inflation was surprising but it is just one month's data. He said the division between policymakers is smaller than generally portrayed but then he also said the he wouldn't be surprised to see Q1 GDP q/q growth below 0.7%. Weale's comments are interesting as he was one of the hawkish voters and his weaker GDP comment again puts the focus on Wed's GDP print - out UK economist says that something below 0.7% q/q could make a May rate hike less likely
Retail sales figures overnight were better than expected, showing a 0.2%m/m gain for the core number vs. expectations of a decline of -0.4%. Policy expectations have likely recovered somewhat but sterling's performance up ahead would remain data-dependent.
CAD
Canadian retail sales advanced slightly less than expected at 0.4% m/m but the ex-autos figure beat expectations at 0.7% m/m. The Canadian dollar, though, weakened versus the dollar as risk sentiment was more muted than previous sessions.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Thursday, April 21, 2011
21st of April 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
21 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar continued to weaken during the Asia session. Some positive US earnings reports were a factor in this, helping to keep risk appetite supported. However, given that USDJPY and USDCHF remained heavy too, a certain amount of general dollar negativity is also driving the price action. EURUSD traded 1.4486-1.4603, USDJPY 81.97-82.60. AUDUSD set a new post-flotation high, while USDCHF fell to a new record low. Gold hit a new all-time high at $1508.88/oz, and is trading just below this level at the time of writing. Asian and US equities closed 1-2% higher. Existing home sales were better than consensus expectations at +3.7% m/m. Although initial jobless claims, leading indicators, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index due, it is unlikely these releases will be sufficiently surprising to cause a dramatic shift in investor sentiment.
EUR
The euro again shrugged off wider sovereign spreads to continue pushing higher. Rate expectations remain supportive, along with the belief that any further sovereign problems will be contained, but the broader dollar move was also a large component.
German producer prices rose 0.4% m/m, softer than expectations. Portugal and Spain held government bill/bond auctions - which passed without incident but average yields remain high. The euro at present is not responding to individual sovereign issues, and we still believe it would take a reversal in ECB expectations for any material downside in the currency
GBP
The BoE minutes showed a 6-3 vote split on interest rates - with MPC member Sentance voting for a 50bp hike and Dale, Spencer both voting for a 25bp hike. On asset purchases MPC member Posen voted for ?50 bn in quantitative easing. The unchanged vote is keeping BoE rate expectations in check for now, though sterling shrugged off the initial disappointment.
Our UK economist notes our May rate hike view is certainly being challenged by construction and industrial production data. In our view the timing of any rate hike is now heavily dependent on the Q1 GDP growth print. If, for instance, the outturn is in excess of 0.7% q/q, we believe the MPC will embark hike rates in May. If instead, the economy expanded by only around 0.5% and the economy subsequently strengthens in Q2, as we expect, the MPC may start raising the policy rate in August
AUD
Foreign Minister Rudd said Australia will not "manipulate" its currency, observing that countries that do "pay a price". We see little prospect of intervention to weaken the AUD at these levels, especially given the RBA has repeatedly pointed to the advantages of a strong AUD in helping to curtail inflationary forces.
PPI inflation for Q1 beat consensus estimates, rising by +1.2% q/q (cons. +1.0%) and +2.9% y/y (cons. +2.7%)
CAD
Prime Minister Harper is concerned about the recent increase in inflation though he seemed to be framing inflation concerns amid the need to avoid tax increases. The higher Q2 inflation is roughly what the BoC expected though it might be a little higher/earlier than they had anticipated.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
21 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar continued to weaken during the Asia session. Some positive US earnings reports were a factor in this, helping to keep risk appetite supported. However, given that USDJPY and USDCHF remained heavy too, a certain amount of general dollar negativity is also driving the price action. EURUSD traded 1.4486-1.4603, USDJPY 81.97-82.60. AUDUSD set a new post-flotation high, while USDCHF fell to a new record low. Gold hit a new all-time high at $1508.88/oz, and is trading just below this level at the time of writing. Asian and US equities closed 1-2% higher. Existing home sales were better than consensus expectations at +3.7% m/m. Although initial jobless claims, leading indicators, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index due, it is unlikely these releases will be sufficiently surprising to cause a dramatic shift in investor sentiment.
EUR
The euro again shrugged off wider sovereign spreads to continue pushing higher. Rate expectations remain supportive, along with the belief that any further sovereign problems will be contained, but the broader dollar move was also a large component.
German producer prices rose 0.4% m/m, softer than expectations. Portugal and Spain held government bill/bond auctions - which passed without incident but average yields remain high. The euro at present is not responding to individual sovereign issues, and we still believe it would take a reversal in ECB expectations for any material downside in the currency
GBP
The BoE minutes showed a 6-3 vote split on interest rates - with MPC member Sentance voting for a 50bp hike and Dale, Spencer both voting for a 25bp hike. On asset purchases MPC member Posen voted for ?50 bn in quantitative easing. The unchanged vote is keeping BoE rate expectations in check for now, though sterling shrugged off the initial disappointment.
Our UK economist notes our May rate hike view is certainly being challenged by construction and industrial production data. In our view the timing of any rate hike is now heavily dependent on the Q1 GDP growth print. If, for instance, the outturn is in excess of 0.7% q/q, we believe the MPC will embark hike rates in May. If instead, the economy expanded by only around 0.5% and the economy subsequently strengthens in Q2, as we expect, the MPC may start raising the policy rate in August
AUD
Foreign Minister Rudd said Australia will not "manipulate" its currency, observing that countries that do "pay a price". We see little prospect of intervention to weaken the AUD at these levels, especially given the RBA has repeatedly pointed to the advantages of a strong AUD in helping to curtail inflationary forces.
PPI inflation for Q1 beat consensus estimates, rising by +1.2% q/q (cons. +1.0%) and +2.9% y/y (cons. +2.7%)
CAD
Prime Minister Harper is concerned about the recent increase in inflation though he seemed to be framing inflation concerns amid the need to avoid tax increases. The higher Q2 inflation is roughly what the BoC expected though it might be a little higher/earlier than they had anticipated.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
21st of April 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
21 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD 1.4685 resistance.
EURUSD BULLISH Clearance of 1.4579 has exposed 1.4685. Support lies at 1.4328.
USDJPY BEARISH Initial support is at 82.00 ahead of 81.55; break through the levels would confirm the bear trend. Resistance is at 83.10.
GBPUSD BULLISH Upper boundary of the 1.6428/58 resistance area holds; a break here would expose 1.6500. Initial support is at 1.6308.
USDCHF BEARISH Pressure on 0.8852/23 support zone. Near-term resistance lies at 0.9012.
AUDUSD BULLISH Rise through 1.0705 has opened up the way towards 1.0845. Support lies at 1.0519.
USDCAD BEARISH Move below 0.9500 signals scope for further losses towards 0.9446. Resistance lies at 0.9600.
EURCHF BEARISH Break of 1.2730 would expose 1.2624; while resistance holds at 1.3000.
EURGBP BULLISH Momentum is positive; expect the cross to target 0.8924/42 area. Initial support is at 0.8780.
EURJPY NEUTRAL Climb through 120.71 would signal potential for gains to 121.48 and 122.41 next. Support is at 118.27.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
21 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD 1.4685 resistance.
EURUSD BULLISH Clearance of 1.4579 has exposed 1.4685. Support lies at 1.4328.
USDJPY BEARISH Initial support is at 82.00 ahead of 81.55; break through the levels would confirm the bear trend. Resistance is at 83.10.
GBPUSD BULLISH Upper boundary of the 1.6428/58 resistance area holds; a break here would expose 1.6500. Initial support is at 1.6308.
USDCHF BEARISH Pressure on 0.8852/23 support zone. Near-term resistance lies at 0.9012.
AUDUSD BULLISH Rise through 1.0705 has opened up the way towards 1.0845. Support lies at 1.0519.
USDCAD BEARISH Move below 0.9500 signals scope for further losses towards 0.9446. Resistance lies at 0.9600.
EURCHF BEARISH Break of 1.2730 would expose 1.2624; while resistance holds at 1.3000.
EURGBP BULLISH Momentum is positive; expect the cross to target 0.8924/42 area. Initial support is at 0.8780.
EURJPY NEUTRAL Climb through 120.71 would signal potential for gains to 121.48 and 122.41 next. Support is at 118.27.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
20th of April 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
20 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
AUDUSD clears 1.0584
EURUSD NEUTRAL With the break of 1.4382 bull trend continues. Next resistance levels are at 1.4450 and 1.4520. Support is at 1.4158/52.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Initial support is at 82.00, followed by 81.55; resistance is at 83.27/78 area.
GBPUSD BULLISH The pair regains momentum; a move above 1.6385 would expose 1.6428, while support lies at 1.6230.
USDCHF BEARISH Focus is on 0.8852/23 support area. Near-term resistance lies at 0.9076.
AUDUSD BULLISH Climb through 1.0584 has opened up the way towards 1.0600/40 area. Support lies at 1.0443.
USDCAD BEARISH Outlook is bearish with focus on 0.9527/00 support zone. Resistance lies at 0.9667.
EURCHF BEARISH Break of initial support 1.2730 would expose 1.2624. Near-term resistance is at 1.2987.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Break through 0.8714/07 area would trigger a bearish tone, while resistance lies at 0.8849.
EURJPY NEUTRAL 120.00 and 116.48 mark the near-term directional triggers.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
20 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
AUDUSD clears 1.0584
EURUSD NEUTRAL With the break of 1.4382 bull trend continues. Next resistance levels are at 1.4450 and 1.4520. Support is at 1.4158/52.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Initial support is at 82.00, followed by 81.55; resistance is at 83.27/78 area.
GBPUSD BULLISH The pair regains momentum; a move above 1.6385 would expose 1.6428, while support lies at 1.6230.
USDCHF BEARISH Focus is on 0.8852/23 support area. Near-term resistance lies at 0.9076.
AUDUSD BULLISH Climb through 1.0584 has opened up the way towards 1.0600/40 area. Support lies at 1.0443.
USDCAD BEARISH Outlook is bearish with focus on 0.9527/00 support zone. Resistance lies at 0.9667.
EURCHF BEARISH Break of initial support 1.2730 would expose 1.2624. Near-term resistance is at 1.2987.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Break through 0.8714/07 area would trigger a bearish tone, while resistance lies at 0.8849.
EURJPY NEUTRAL 120.00 and 116.48 mark the near-term directional triggers.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
20th of April 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
20 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk appetite steadily improved during the Asia session, as investors brushed aside S&P's recent decision to lower the outlook on the US rating. Asian and US equities pushed higher, helped along by some solid US earnings reports. The dollar lost ground to all its G10 peers, except the yen. Japanese exports for March fell on an annualised basis for the first time in 16 months, largely a consequence of the recent earthquake and tsunami. Gold finally traded through $1500/oz. EURUSD traded 1.4314-1.4414, USDJPY 82.39-83.10. US housing data improved, although the rebound was easier to achieve given the size of previous monthly declines. Housing starts were slightly below consensus at +7.2% m/m, but building permits comfortably exceeded market expectations. Despite the better housing data, the focus for the dollar remains the April 27 FOMC decision.
EUR
ECB Governing Council member Bini Smaghi said European officials must assure market participants that debt restructurings are not looming.
Prior to Bini Smaghi's comments, a Greek newspaper quoted an EU 'source' as accepting that a mild restructuring of Greek debt is unavoidable. This was later denied by the European Commission. German Finance Ministry advisor Fuest said that a restructuring is 'inevitable'.
A series of PMI readings were released across Germany and the Eurozone. German data was mixed: April flash manufacturing PMI rose to 61.7 vs 60.0 cons, while the services index fell to 57.7 vs 59.8 cons. Eurozone estimates were broadly in line with expectations: manufacturing rose to 57.7 (cons 57), services fell to 56.9 (cons 57). Our European economists note that the Eurozone prints are consistent with above-trend growth until at least 2012.
GBP
The minutes from the BoE's April 7 policy meeting are due. Our analysts expect another 6-3 vote split in favour of keeping the policy rate unchanged. Rate expectations have drifted lower in recent weeks and, unless we see some hawkish comments, the minutes will likely have a neutral to negative impact on sterling as they keep expectations in check.
CAD
Headline CPI jumped more than expected to +3.3% y/y. Core prices were also surprisingly firm, rising by +1.7% y/y from a low of +0.9% y/y in February. Our economists note the BoC had expected CPI to temporarily rise to "around 3%" in Q2, but this might be a little higher/earlier than they had anticipated.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
20 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk appetite steadily improved during the Asia session, as investors brushed aside S&P's recent decision to lower the outlook on the US rating. Asian and US equities pushed higher, helped along by some solid US earnings reports. The dollar lost ground to all its G10 peers, except the yen. Japanese exports for March fell on an annualised basis for the first time in 16 months, largely a consequence of the recent earthquake and tsunami. Gold finally traded through $1500/oz. EURUSD traded 1.4314-1.4414, USDJPY 82.39-83.10. US housing data improved, although the rebound was easier to achieve given the size of previous monthly declines. Housing starts were slightly below consensus at +7.2% m/m, but building permits comfortably exceeded market expectations. Despite the better housing data, the focus for the dollar remains the April 27 FOMC decision.
EUR
ECB Governing Council member Bini Smaghi said European officials must assure market participants that debt restructurings are not looming.
Prior to Bini Smaghi's comments, a Greek newspaper quoted an EU 'source' as accepting that a mild restructuring of Greek debt is unavoidable. This was later denied by the European Commission. German Finance Ministry advisor Fuest said that a restructuring is 'inevitable'.
A series of PMI readings were released across Germany and the Eurozone. German data was mixed: April flash manufacturing PMI rose to 61.7 vs 60.0 cons, while the services index fell to 57.7 vs 59.8 cons. Eurozone estimates were broadly in line with expectations: manufacturing rose to 57.7 (cons 57), services fell to 56.9 (cons 57). Our European economists note that the Eurozone prints are consistent with above-trend growth until at least 2012.
GBP
The minutes from the BoE's April 7 policy meeting are due. Our analysts expect another 6-3 vote split in favour of keeping the policy rate unchanged. Rate expectations have drifted lower in recent weeks and, unless we see some hawkish comments, the minutes will likely have a neutral to negative impact on sterling as they keep expectations in check.
CAD
Headline CPI jumped more than expected to +3.3% y/y. Core prices were also surprisingly firm, rising by +1.7% y/y from a low of +0.9% y/y in February. Our economists note the BoC had expected CPI to temporarily rise to "around 3%" in Q2, but this might be a little higher/earlier than they had anticipated.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
19th of April 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
19 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD 1.4152 support
EURUSD NEUTRAL Abrupt fall through 1.4291 has turned the model neutral with initial support at 1.4152. Resistance is at 1.4450.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Move below 82.55 has exposed 82.00 and 81.55. Resistance is at 83.27 ahead of 83.78.
GBPUSD BULLISH Move below 1.6227 has exposed 1.6125; while this level holds expect the pair to gain towards 1.6385 and 1.6428.
USDCHF BEARISH Focus is on 0.8852/23 support area. Near-term resistance lies at 0.9076.
AUDUSD BULLISH Resistance is at 1.0584, break of this would expose 1.0600/40 area. Support lies at 1.0390.
USDCAD BEARISH Break of initial resistance 0.9698 has exposed 0.9750, but overall outlook is bearish with focus on 0.9557/27 support area.
EURCHF BEARISH Extension of losses through 1.2736 has opened up the way towards 1.2624. Initial resistance is at 1.2891.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Pull back through 0.8714/07 area would favour negative tone. Near-term resistance lies at 0.8800
EURJPY NEUTRAL Following the break of 118.00 and 116.94, model has turned neutral. Break of 116.00 would trigger negative tone, while resistance is at 119.10.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
19 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD 1.4152 support
EURUSD NEUTRAL Abrupt fall through 1.4291 has turned the model neutral with initial support at 1.4152. Resistance is at 1.4450.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Move below 82.55 has exposed 82.00 and 81.55. Resistance is at 83.27 ahead of 83.78.
GBPUSD BULLISH Move below 1.6227 has exposed 1.6125; while this level holds expect the pair to gain towards 1.6385 and 1.6428.
USDCHF BEARISH Focus is on 0.8852/23 support area. Near-term resistance lies at 0.9076.
AUDUSD BULLISH Resistance is at 1.0584, break of this would expose 1.0600/40 area. Support lies at 1.0390.
USDCAD BEARISH Break of initial resistance 0.9698 has exposed 0.9750, but overall outlook is bearish with focus on 0.9557/27 support area.
EURCHF BEARISH Extension of losses through 1.2736 has opened up the way towards 1.2624. Initial resistance is at 1.2891.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Pull back through 0.8714/07 area would favour negative tone. Near-term resistance lies at 0.8800
EURJPY NEUTRAL Following the break of 118.00 and 116.94, model has turned neutral. Break of 116.00 would trigger negative tone, while resistance is at 119.10.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
19th of April 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
19 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk sentiment began to stabilise towards the end of the Asia session as the market fully digested the news of S&P's decision to lower the outlook on the US AAA rating to negative. EURUSD traded 1.4206-1.4247, USDJPY 82.32-82.71. The agency sees a 1-in-3 chance of a downgrade in two years' time. It cited ongoing deficit concerns, particularly that an agreement might not be implemented by 2013 to reduce US fiscal pressures in a meaningful way. Treasurys initially sold off on the news, but soon recovered fully. Regional Fed presidents Bullard, Fisher and Lockhart spoke. Both Lockhart and Bullard said Q1 growth could be softer, in line with our US economists, who shifted their Q1 annualized GDP forecast from 3.0% to 1.0%. Bullard thinks it might make sense to curtail QE2 early and Fisher remained hawkish. Building permits and housing starts are expected to be weaker but risk sentiment remains the main driver, especially with no scheduled Fed speakers ahead of the April 27 FOMC decision..
EUR
Several officials, including a Greek government spokesman and ECB Governing Council member Wellink, denied the possibility of a Greek debt restructuring. Earlier remarks attributed to unnamed German government sources suggested that Greece might not make it through the summer without restructuring its debt. The latest data showed no bond purchases under the ECB's Securities Market Programme.
A 12m and 18m Spanish T-bill auction was poorly received by the market. The 12m T-bill average yield was 2.770% vs 2.128% at the previous auction, while the 18m T-bill average yield was 3.364% vs 2.436% previously.
ECB Governing Council member Bonello urged caution on the pace of policy rate normalisation in light of the debt crisis. Bonello added that the ECB may re-widen the rate corridor `quite soon'. This refers to the fact that the spread between the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility has to widen by 25bp to bring it back to pre-crisis levels. This would be another step towards policy normalisation.
JPY
Japan's economy minister Yosano said US Treasury bonds would remain in demand even if the US was ultimately downgraded, and that short-term Treasury securities are the best debt investment.
AUD
The minutes of the RBA's April 5 policy meeting provided little further insight into the RBA's current thinking. Referring to the recent events in Japan, the board concluded that "the effects on the Japanese economy were likely to be significantly larger than those of the Kobe earthquake" in 1995. But the impacts on "global activity were likely to be relatively limited". This was expected to cause disruption to Australia's exports to Japan in the near term but, beyond this, the reconstruction effort along with greater energy demands "could provide a boost to Australian exports". Our Australian economists stick to their view that the next RBA rate hike is likely to be in August.
CAD
Our analysts expect headline CPI for March to come in at +0.4% m/m, and +2.6% y/y (prev. +2.2%). Bank of Canada core CPI figures are also due and we expect the annualised reading to tick higher to +1.2% y/y. A CPI surprise could bolster rate expectations for the BoC and help the Canadian dollar. However given core CPI is likely to stay well below the midpoint of the BoC's 1-3% target range, we do not think there is a sense of urgency to tighten policy.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
19 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk sentiment began to stabilise towards the end of the Asia session as the market fully digested the news of S&P's decision to lower the outlook on the US AAA rating to negative. EURUSD traded 1.4206-1.4247, USDJPY 82.32-82.71. The agency sees a 1-in-3 chance of a downgrade in two years' time. It cited ongoing deficit concerns, particularly that an agreement might not be implemented by 2013 to reduce US fiscal pressures in a meaningful way. Treasurys initially sold off on the news, but soon recovered fully. Regional Fed presidents Bullard, Fisher and Lockhart spoke. Both Lockhart and Bullard said Q1 growth could be softer, in line with our US economists, who shifted their Q1 annualized GDP forecast from 3.0% to 1.0%. Bullard thinks it might make sense to curtail QE2 early and Fisher remained hawkish. Building permits and housing starts are expected to be weaker but risk sentiment remains the main driver, especially with no scheduled Fed speakers ahead of the April 27 FOMC decision..
EUR
Several officials, including a Greek government spokesman and ECB Governing Council member Wellink, denied the possibility of a Greek debt restructuring. Earlier remarks attributed to unnamed German government sources suggested that Greece might not make it through the summer without restructuring its debt. The latest data showed no bond purchases under the ECB's Securities Market Programme.
A 12m and 18m Spanish T-bill auction was poorly received by the market. The 12m T-bill average yield was 2.770% vs 2.128% at the previous auction, while the 18m T-bill average yield was 3.364% vs 2.436% previously.
ECB Governing Council member Bonello urged caution on the pace of policy rate normalisation in light of the debt crisis. Bonello added that the ECB may re-widen the rate corridor `quite soon'. This refers to the fact that the spread between the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility has to widen by 25bp to bring it back to pre-crisis levels. This would be another step towards policy normalisation.
JPY
Japan's economy minister Yosano said US Treasury bonds would remain in demand even if the US was ultimately downgraded, and that short-term Treasury securities are the best debt investment.
AUD
The minutes of the RBA's April 5 policy meeting provided little further insight into the RBA's current thinking. Referring to the recent events in Japan, the board concluded that "the effects on the Japanese economy were likely to be significantly larger than those of the Kobe earthquake" in 1995. But the impacts on "global activity were likely to be relatively limited". This was expected to cause disruption to Australia's exports to Japan in the near term but, beyond this, the reconstruction effort along with greater energy demands "could provide a boost to Australian exports". Our Australian economists stick to their view that the next RBA rate hike is likely to be in August.
CAD
Our analysts expect headline CPI for March to come in at +0.4% m/m, and +2.6% y/y (prev. +2.2%). Bank of Canada core CPI figures are also due and we expect the annualised reading to tick higher to +1.2% y/y. A CPI surprise could bolster rate expectations for the BoC and help the Canadian dollar. However given core CPI is likely to stay well below the midpoint of the BoC's 1-3% target range, we do not think there is a sense of urgency to tighten policy.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Monday, April 18, 2011
18th of April 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
18 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD BULLISH Focus is on 1.4520; a break here would expose 1.4579 and 1.4685. Initial support is at 1.4291.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Break of 82.55 would put odds in favour of a bear trend. Initial resistance is at 83.78 ahead of 84.26.
GBPUSD BULLISH Focus is on 1.6428/58 resistance zone. Near-term support is at 1.6227.
USDCHF BEARISH Outlook is bearish with focus on 0.8852/23 support area. Near-term resistance lies at 0.9076.
AUDUSD BULLISH Pressures 1.0584, break here would expose 1.0600/40 area. Support lies at 1.0458.
USDCAD BEARISH Momentum is negative; the pair targets 0.9557/27 support area. Near-term resistance is at 0.9670.
EURCHF BEARISH A move below 1.2837 would expose 1.2788, resistance is at 1.2958.
EURGBP BULLISH Violation of 0.8882 would open up the way towards 0.8924/42 zone, while support lies at 0.8793.
EURJPY BULLISH As long as support at 118.00 holds, pullback is seen as a correction. Initial resistance is at 120.35 ahead of 121.48.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA
Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
18 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD BULLISH Focus is on 1.4520; a break here would expose 1.4579 and 1.4685. Initial support is at 1.4291.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Break of 82.55 would put odds in favour of a bear trend. Initial resistance is at 83.78 ahead of 84.26.
GBPUSD BULLISH Focus is on 1.6428/58 resistance zone. Near-term support is at 1.6227.
USDCHF BEARISH Outlook is bearish with focus on 0.8852/23 support area. Near-term resistance lies at 0.9076.
AUDUSD BULLISH Pressures 1.0584, break here would expose 1.0600/40 area. Support lies at 1.0458.
USDCAD BEARISH Momentum is negative; the pair targets 0.9557/27 support area. Near-term resistance is at 0.9670.
EURCHF BEARISH A move below 1.2837 would expose 1.2788, resistance is at 1.2958.
EURGBP BULLISH Violation of 0.8882 would open up the way towards 0.8924/42 zone, while support lies at 0.8793.
EURJPY BULLISH As long as support at 118.00 holds, pullback is seen as a correction. Initial resistance is at 120.35 ahead of 121.48.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA
Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
18th of April 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
18 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The euro weakened after the euro-sceptic True Finns party won third place in Finland's weekend election, raising doubts about whether a financial rescue of Portugal can go ahead as planned. EURUSD traded 1.4350-1.4450, and USDJPY 82.86-83.27. A series of weekend policy meetings passed without incident - the G7 did not even issue a communiqu?. The G20 reached agreement on indicative guidelines for various economic variables. These will eventually be used to assess whether a given economy is contributing to global economic imbalances, and whether corrective action is needed. However, it was stressed again that these were not numerical targets, suggesting plenty of leeway exists. US core CPI rose by only +0.1% m/m (cons. +0.2%). However the annualised figure ticked higher and was in line with consensus expectations at +1.2% y/y. Chicago Fed President Evans, a current FOMC voter and a well-known dove, said "as long as core inflation year over year is 1.5 percent or lower, I'd be surprised if I'm advocating a tightening in policy" in 2011. He said he was "more comfortable" with the idea that $600 bn is a "good sized program" for QE2, implying that he is less likely to support an extension beyond June. Philadelphia Fed President Plosser, also an FOMC voter in the current year, said "inflation is not imminent", but he worried about inflation "a year, a year-and-a-half down the road". This is entirely in tune with his recent hawkish commentary.
EUR
Eurozone CPI for March was revised upwards to +2.7% y/y from the earlier flash estimate, helping to keep ECB rate hike expectations supported. However, this was not enough to prevent euro downside as concern over Eurozone sovereign risk intensified once again. Irish and Portuguese spreads over bunds widened significantly. Greek spreads in particular closed above 1000bp - a new high since Greece joined the euro. CDS spreads also blew out.
Ireland was downgraded by Moody's from Baa1 to Baa3 on Friday, but this was not the key driver. What has changed in recent days is that FX investors now see a greater risk of a Greek debt restructuring event before the new ESM rescue facility becomes operational in July 2013.
The origin of the latest bout of nervousness can be traced back to Wednesday's comments by German Finance Minister Schaeuble. He revealed that Greece's debt position is currently being assessed, and that "something must be done about it" if doubts over debt sustainability arise. On Friday, Schaeuble tried to downplay these remarks saying that they had been interpreted "somewhat erroneously", and he implied that restructuring was not necessarily what he had in mind. Nevertheless, Germany's deputy foreign minister Hoyer, said that a voluntary debt restructuring would "not be a disaster". EFSF CEO Regling also did not rule out the possibility, saying that the possible need for restructuring will depend on Greece's ability to execute reforms and on the performance of the global economy.
EU Commissioner Rehn elaborated further, confirming that a "sustainability review" of Greece's debt is currently underway and should be completed by late spring or early summer. He said the study was a normal part of the quarterly review process, but that "this time it is of particular importance".
A weekend Financial Times article kept the story alive, reporting that Germany is drawing up plans to restructure Greek debt, a claim which a German Finance Ministry spokesperson later said was "without any basis in reality". Greek Prime Minister Papandreou again denied speculation that Greece might one day default, saying that Greece's problems would be solved "not by restructuring the debt, but by restructuring the country". Finance Minister Papaconstantinou repeated that "restructuring is simply not on the cards" and that the pain and cost of restructuring is bigger than the benefit.
Portugal repaid on schedule a maturing bond worth approximately EUR4.2 bn. FX investors are now likely to focus on the next major bond redemption on June 15. The principal sum, along with associated coupon payments, comes to approximately EUR5 bn. Portuguese officials have already implied that external assistance through the EFSF may be needed to meet that repayment.
Ireland's Finance Minister Noonan said he has made significant progress in getting his European counterparts to agree on lowering the interest rate charged on loans advanced by the EFSF. He said he would like to see the interest rate lowered when Portugal's rescue package is agreed.
JPY
The G20 communique released over the weekend did not mention currency intervention specifically but expressed a "readiness to provide any needed cooperation" to Japan to help deal with the aftermath of the earthquake.
Japanese Finance Minister Noda and US Treasury Geithner met. Afterwards, Noda said the recent G7 FX intervention was "very significant and effective". Geithner expressed satisfaction that the G7 were able to come together "in exceptional circumstances&to help Japan contain the risk that a sharp appreciation of the yen would damage the recovery". Neither Noda nor Geithner revealed whether Japan is seeking another round of intervention, or whether the G7 might be willing to act on any such request.
Noda repeated that the disaster-relief budget currently being framed would not require any additional JGB issuance. However, he said that a second supplementary budget which is also in the pipeline would require "significant amounts of funding".
NZD
NZDUSD hit a new three-year high on Friday night, briefly breaking above 0.8000. New Zealand's Finance Minister English said the pair is likely to trend back towards the mid-0.60s in the near future.
The RBNZ announced the creation of a 3-year swap facility with the PBoC worth CNY25 bn. The new facility allows the RBNZ to borrow in CNY if markets were to become disrupted to the point where NZ businesses were unable to borrow in CNY directly. The move marks another step in the internationalisation of the CNY.
NZ Q1 CPI came in softer than expected at +0.8% q/q (cons. 1.0%). This supports our analyts’s view that the RBNZ will wait until March 2012 before delivering the next rate hike.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
18 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The euro weakened after the euro-sceptic True Finns party won third place in Finland's weekend election, raising doubts about whether a financial rescue of Portugal can go ahead as planned. EURUSD traded 1.4350-1.4450, and USDJPY 82.86-83.27. A series of weekend policy meetings passed without incident - the G7 did not even issue a communiqu?. The G20 reached agreement on indicative guidelines for various economic variables. These will eventually be used to assess whether a given economy is contributing to global economic imbalances, and whether corrective action is needed. However, it was stressed again that these were not numerical targets, suggesting plenty of leeway exists. US core CPI rose by only +0.1% m/m (cons. +0.2%). However the annualised figure ticked higher and was in line with consensus expectations at +1.2% y/y. Chicago Fed President Evans, a current FOMC voter and a well-known dove, said "as long as core inflation year over year is 1.5 percent or lower, I'd be surprised if I'm advocating a tightening in policy" in 2011. He said he was "more comfortable" with the idea that $600 bn is a "good sized program" for QE2, implying that he is less likely to support an extension beyond June. Philadelphia Fed President Plosser, also an FOMC voter in the current year, said "inflation is not imminent", but he worried about inflation "a year, a year-and-a-half down the road". This is entirely in tune with his recent hawkish commentary.
EUR
Eurozone CPI for March was revised upwards to +2.7% y/y from the earlier flash estimate, helping to keep ECB rate hike expectations supported. However, this was not enough to prevent euro downside as concern over Eurozone sovereign risk intensified once again. Irish and Portuguese spreads over bunds widened significantly. Greek spreads in particular closed above 1000bp - a new high since Greece joined the euro. CDS spreads also blew out.
Ireland was downgraded by Moody's from Baa1 to Baa3 on Friday, but this was not the key driver. What has changed in recent days is that FX investors now see a greater risk of a Greek debt restructuring event before the new ESM rescue facility becomes operational in July 2013.
The origin of the latest bout of nervousness can be traced back to Wednesday's comments by German Finance Minister Schaeuble. He revealed that Greece's debt position is currently being assessed, and that "something must be done about it" if doubts over debt sustainability arise. On Friday, Schaeuble tried to downplay these remarks saying that they had been interpreted "somewhat erroneously", and he implied that restructuring was not necessarily what he had in mind. Nevertheless, Germany's deputy foreign minister Hoyer, said that a voluntary debt restructuring would "not be a disaster". EFSF CEO Regling also did not rule out the possibility, saying that the possible need for restructuring will depend on Greece's ability to execute reforms and on the performance of the global economy.
EU Commissioner Rehn elaborated further, confirming that a "sustainability review" of Greece's debt is currently underway and should be completed by late spring or early summer. He said the study was a normal part of the quarterly review process, but that "this time it is of particular importance".
A weekend Financial Times article kept the story alive, reporting that Germany is drawing up plans to restructure Greek debt, a claim which a German Finance Ministry spokesperson later said was "without any basis in reality". Greek Prime Minister Papandreou again denied speculation that Greece might one day default, saying that Greece's problems would be solved "not by restructuring the debt, but by restructuring the country". Finance Minister Papaconstantinou repeated that "restructuring is simply not on the cards" and that the pain and cost of restructuring is bigger than the benefit.
Portugal repaid on schedule a maturing bond worth approximately EUR4.2 bn. FX investors are now likely to focus on the next major bond redemption on June 15. The principal sum, along with associated coupon payments, comes to approximately EUR5 bn. Portuguese officials have already implied that external assistance through the EFSF may be needed to meet that repayment.
Ireland's Finance Minister Noonan said he has made significant progress in getting his European counterparts to agree on lowering the interest rate charged on loans advanced by the EFSF. He said he would like to see the interest rate lowered when Portugal's rescue package is agreed.
JPY
The G20 communique released over the weekend did not mention currency intervention specifically but expressed a "readiness to provide any needed cooperation" to Japan to help deal with the aftermath of the earthquake.
Japanese Finance Minister Noda and US Treasury Geithner met. Afterwards, Noda said the recent G7 FX intervention was "very significant and effective". Geithner expressed satisfaction that the G7 were able to come together "in exceptional circumstances&to help Japan contain the risk that a sharp appreciation of the yen would damage the recovery". Neither Noda nor Geithner revealed whether Japan is seeking another round of intervention, or whether the G7 might be willing to act on any such request.
Noda repeated that the disaster-relief budget currently being framed would not require any additional JGB issuance. However, he said that a second supplementary budget which is also in the pipeline would require "significant amounts of funding".
NZD
NZDUSD hit a new three-year high on Friday night, briefly breaking above 0.8000. New Zealand's Finance Minister English said the pair is likely to trend back towards the mid-0.60s in the near future.
The RBNZ announced the creation of a 3-year swap facility with the PBoC worth CNY25 bn. The new facility allows the RBNZ to borrow in CNY if markets were to become disrupted to the point where NZ businesses were unable to borrow in CNY directly. The move marks another step in the internationalisation of the CNY.
NZ Q1 CPI came in softer than expected at +0.8% q/q (cons. 1.0%). This supports our analyts’s view that the RBNZ will wait until March 2012 before delivering the next rate hike.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Thursday, April 14, 2011
14th of April 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
14 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD held at 1.4520.
EURUSD BULLISH Upside potential held at 1.4520 ahead of 1.4579, break of these levels would expose 1.4685. Initial support is at 1.4377.
USDJPY BULLISH As long as support at 83.13 is intact, a move above 84.79 would open way to 85.53/93 resistance area.
GBPUSD BULLISH Rise above 1.6349 would expose 1.6428. Initial support is at 1.6227.
USDCHF BEARISH The pair targets 0.8852/23 support area; near-term resistance lies at 0.9076.
AUDUSD BULLISH Focus is on 1.0584 ahead of 1.0600/40 area, while support lies at 1.0390.
USDCAD BEARISH Break of 0.9557 would open the way towards 0.9527/00 area, while resistance at 0.9698 holds.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Move below 1.2933 exposes 1.2837 putting odds in favor of reversal. Recovery through 1.3044 required to regain momentum.
EURGBP BULLISH Focus is on key high 0.8942, break of this would open way to 0.9001. Near-term support lies at 0.8823.
EURJPY BULLISH Remains constructive above 120.00; a break above 123.33 would expose 125.00.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
14 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD held at 1.4520.
EURUSD BULLISH Upside potential held at 1.4520 ahead of 1.4579, break of these levels would expose 1.4685. Initial support is at 1.4377.
USDJPY BULLISH As long as support at 83.13 is intact, a move above 84.79 would open way to 85.53/93 resistance area.
GBPUSD BULLISH Rise above 1.6349 would expose 1.6428. Initial support is at 1.6227.
USDCHF BEARISH The pair targets 0.8852/23 support area; near-term resistance lies at 0.9076.
AUDUSD BULLISH Focus is on 1.0584 ahead of 1.0600/40 area, while support lies at 1.0390.
USDCAD BEARISH Break of 0.9557 would open the way towards 0.9527/00 area, while resistance at 0.9698 holds.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Move below 1.2933 exposes 1.2837 putting odds in favor of reversal. Recovery through 1.3044 required to regain momentum.
EURGBP BULLISH Focus is on key high 0.8942, break of this would open way to 0.9001. Near-term support lies at 0.8823.
EURJPY BULLISH Remains constructive above 120.00; a break above 123.33 would expose 125.00.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
14th of April 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
14 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar initially strengthened against the EUR and the AUD after the Monetary Authority of Singapore tightened policy by less than expected. However, the dollar's gains were quickly erased at the end of the Asia session when local media sources unofficially released a batch of China data ahead of time. CPI was slightly stronger than expected which raises the risk of further policy tightening. However, new loan growth and retail sales were strong, suggesting little sign of a slowdown in China and helping to boost global risk appetite.
EURUSD traded 1.4408-1.4497, USDJPY 83.28-83.94. Earlier in the US session, the Beige Book and retail sales data helped the dollar briefly. The Beige Book noted the economy is expanding, with widespread gains in February and March along with upbeat reports on the near-term outlook. Retail sales rose +0.4% in March, slightly below consensus, but details were stronger and prior months were revised up somewhat. G7 finance chiefs meet ahead of G20, and IMF/World Bank meetings and are expected to discuss the economic impact of the tragedy in Japan, but no communiqu? is expected.
China's FX reserves likely reached $3 trn at end-March - and look set to continue climbing.To curb yuan appreciation and sterilize the liquidity generated by its FX accumulation, the central bank has had to issue more than $400 bn worth of bills and raise bank reserve requirement ratios to record highs. Such measures will become less effective in time. Adjusting relative factor prices and allowing greater yuan appreciation are crucial to reducing China's external surplus.
EUR
ECB rhetoric levels seemed to increase a notch over the past 24 hours. Belgium's Central Bank Governor Coene, referring to the recent ECB press conference, said that "Trichet gave a signal that the ECB hike was not a one-off" and it should "not be seen as a totally isolated decision". The ECB Governing Council member Draghi said monetary policy remains very accommodative and that the ECB is assessing how to withdraw from this expansionary monetary policy. ECB Executive Board member Stark said that raising short term interest rates would not have much of an effect on economies in the Eurozone's periphery, implying once again that the economic difficulties on the periphery are no obstacle to future hikes.
Greek Finance Minister Papaconstantinou said a debt restructuring would shut Greece out of the debt markets for a long time and would trigger some contagion. German Finance Minister Schaeuble said he is awaiting "a detailed analysis on the debt sustainability of Greece" and that if this report concludes that sustainability is in doubt "something must be done about it."
GBP
Employment data was mixed with jobless claims unexpectedly rising by 700 (versus consensus at -3k) but the unemployment rate ticked down to 7.8%. Also, wage data was softer, as pay growth slowed in February to 2.0% from 2.3% in January.
CAD
The Bank of Canada's Monetary Policy Report largely echoed the comments and changes from the recent policy decision. Officials noted the Japan earthquake could curb Canada's Q3 growth rate by 0.5% and again mentioned Canadian dollar strength as a concern. But BoC Governor Carney later said what Finance Minister Flaherty and others have been saying for some time now - officials are essentially accepting that CAD will remain relatively strong and are encouraging local corporations to take advantage of that for imports and capex purchases.
AUD
RBA Governor Stevens did not deviate from his neutral stance and many of his comments focused on economic developments outside of Australia. He said it is risky to keep the price of money very low for a very long time and suggested that EM countries that are concerned with capital flows could let their exchange rates move. Stevens also said it is "highly unlikely" that Australia would adopt capital controls.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
14 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar initially strengthened against the EUR and the AUD after the Monetary Authority of Singapore tightened policy by less than expected. However, the dollar's gains were quickly erased at the end of the Asia session when local media sources unofficially released a batch of China data ahead of time. CPI was slightly stronger than expected which raises the risk of further policy tightening. However, new loan growth and retail sales were strong, suggesting little sign of a slowdown in China and helping to boost global risk appetite.
EURUSD traded 1.4408-1.4497, USDJPY 83.28-83.94. Earlier in the US session, the Beige Book and retail sales data helped the dollar briefly. The Beige Book noted the economy is expanding, with widespread gains in February and March along with upbeat reports on the near-term outlook. Retail sales rose +0.4% in March, slightly below consensus, but details were stronger and prior months were revised up somewhat. G7 finance chiefs meet ahead of G20, and IMF/World Bank meetings and are expected to discuss the economic impact of the tragedy in Japan, but no communiqu? is expected.
China's FX reserves likely reached $3 trn at end-March - and look set to continue climbing.To curb yuan appreciation and sterilize the liquidity generated by its FX accumulation, the central bank has had to issue more than $400 bn worth of bills and raise bank reserve requirement ratios to record highs. Such measures will become less effective in time. Adjusting relative factor prices and allowing greater yuan appreciation are crucial to reducing China's external surplus.
EUR
ECB rhetoric levels seemed to increase a notch over the past 24 hours. Belgium's Central Bank Governor Coene, referring to the recent ECB press conference, said that "Trichet gave a signal that the ECB hike was not a one-off" and it should "not be seen as a totally isolated decision". The ECB Governing Council member Draghi said monetary policy remains very accommodative and that the ECB is assessing how to withdraw from this expansionary monetary policy. ECB Executive Board member Stark said that raising short term interest rates would not have much of an effect on economies in the Eurozone's periphery, implying once again that the economic difficulties on the periphery are no obstacle to future hikes.
Greek Finance Minister Papaconstantinou said a debt restructuring would shut Greece out of the debt markets for a long time and would trigger some contagion. German Finance Minister Schaeuble said he is awaiting "a detailed analysis on the debt sustainability of Greece" and that if this report concludes that sustainability is in doubt "something must be done about it."
GBP
Employment data was mixed with jobless claims unexpectedly rising by 700 (versus consensus at -3k) but the unemployment rate ticked down to 7.8%. Also, wage data was softer, as pay growth slowed in February to 2.0% from 2.3% in January.
CAD
The Bank of Canada's Monetary Policy Report largely echoed the comments and changes from the recent policy decision. Officials noted the Japan earthquake could curb Canada's Q3 growth rate by 0.5% and again mentioned Canadian dollar strength as a concern. But BoC Governor Carney later said what Finance Minister Flaherty and others have been saying for some time now - officials are essentially accepting that CAD will remain relatively strong and are encouraging local corporations to take advantage of that for imports and capex purchases.
AUD
RBA Governor Stevens did not deviate from his neutral stance and many of his comments focused on economic developments outside of Australia. He said it is risky to keep the price of money very low for a very long time and suggested that EM countries that are concerned with capital flows could let their exchange rates move. Stevens also said it is "highly unlikely" that Australia would adopt capital controls.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
13th of April 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
13 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURGBP focus on 0.8942.
EURUSD BULLISH Break of 1.4500/12 has signaled further gains towards 1.4579 and 1.4685. Initial support is at 1.4377.
USDJPY BULLISH Rise above 84.79 and 85.00 would expose 85.53/93 resistance area, while support holds at 83.13.
GBPUSD BULLISH Focus is on 1.6428, break above this would expose 1.6458 ahead of 1.6516. Initial support is at 1.6183.
USDCHF BEARISH Following the break of 0.8964, the pair targets 0.8852/23 support area. Resistance is at 0.9105.
AUDUSD BULLISH Initial resistance is at 1.0584 ahead of 1.0600/40 area, while support lies at 1.0315.
USDCAD BEARISH As long as resistance at 0.9698 holds, expect the pair to target 0.9527/00 support zone.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Move below 1.2933 would trigger a reversal and expose 1.2889; initial resistance is at 1.3097 ahead of 1.3166.
EURGBP BULLISH Focus is on key high 0.8942, break of this would open way to 0.9001. Near-term support lies at 0.8823.
EURJPY BULLISH A break above 123.33 would signal scope for further gains towards 125.00. Support lies at 120.00.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
13 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURGBP focus on 0.8942.
EURUSD BULLISH Break of 1.4500/12 has signaled further gains towards 1.4579 and 1.4685. Initial support is at 1.4377.
USDJPY BULLISH Rise above 84.79 and 85.00 would expose 85.53/93 resistance area, while support holds at 83.13.
GBPUSD BULLISH Focus is on 1.6428, break above this would expose 1.6458 ahead of 1.6516. Initial support is at 1.6183.
USDCHF BEARISH Following the break of 0.8964, the pair targets 0.8852/23 support area. Resistance is at 0.9105.
AUDUSD BULLISH Initial resistance is at 1.0584 ahead of 1.0600/40 area, while support lies at 1.0315.
USDCAD BEARISH As long as resistance at 0.9698 holds, expect the pair to target 0.9527/00 support zone.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Move below 1.2933 would trigger a reversal and expose 1.2889; initial resistance is at 1.3097 ahead of 1.3166.
EURGBP BULLISH Focus is on key high 0.8942, break of this would open way to 0.9001. Near-term support lies at 0.8823.
EURJPY BULLISH A break above 123.33 would signal scope for further gains towards 125.00. Support lies at 120.00.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
13th of April 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
13 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
FX price action was relatively subdued during the Asia session, given the lack of news and data flow. EURUSD traded 1.4455-1.4498, USDJPY 83.51-84.20. Asian equities were modestly stronger after the S&P 500 fell -0.78%. New York Fed President Dudley said QE2 is not designed to influence the dollar and the risk of deflation is now "greatly diminished." But until market participants get more clarity on the Fed's next steps, the dollar will be prone to weakness when risk sentiment is positive. Its safe-haven status could also remain unclear, judging by recent performance vs. the Swiss franc and the yen. Retail sales and the Fed Beige Book are due.
EUR
The ZEW surveys in Germany were mixed, with the current situation indicator rising to 87.10 (cons. 85.2), while the economic growth sentiment indicator fell back to 7.60 (cons. 11.30). The report suggests that Germany is probably at the upper point of its current economic cycle and there were concerns over second-round price effects from higher commodity prices.
German CPI was in line with consensus, staying unchanged at 2.1% y/y.
GBP
Sterling weakened after headline CPI for March came in well below consensus at +4.0% y/y (cons. +4.4%). With an uncertain growth outlook and deep internal divisions on the MPC, we remain cautious on sterling. Our UK economist points towards the April 27 Q1 GDP print for an indication of whether the middle-ground voters will join the hawks.
UK retail sales for March were disappointing, falling by -3.5% y/y. The drop in total sales is the worst since the BRC started collecting data in 1995. This is convincing evidence that austerity measures are feeding through into consumer demand.
CAD
The Bank of Canada kept policy unchanged as expected and adjusted its 2011 GDP forecasts to 2.9% (from 2.4% in January MPR) and to 2.6% (from 2.8%) for 2012. Officials said recent growth, though stronger than anticipated, is still largely consistent with their January projections and they reiterated that any further reduction of stimulus would need to be carefully considered. The BoC cited CAD strength as a challenge again and said it sees the emergence of broader global inflationary pressures due to commodity prices.
AUD
The upcoming speech by RBA Governor Stevens could provide some useful insight into current RBA thinking after recent mixed data releases. Stevens is expected to maintain his neutral stance and signal that the RBA is on hold for now.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
13 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
FX price action was relatively subdued during the Asia session, given the lack of news and data flow. EURUSD traded 1.4455-1.4498, USDJPY 83.51-84.20. Asian equities were modestly stronger after the S&P 500 fell -0.78%. New York Fed President Dudley said QE2 is not designed to influence the dollar and the risk of deflation is now "greatly diminished." But until market participants get more clarity on the Fed's next steps, the dollar will be prone to weakness when risk sentiment is positive. Its safe-haven status could also remain unclear, judging by recent performance vs. the Swiss franc and the yen. Retail sales and the Fed Beige Book are due.
EUR
The ZEW surveys in Germany were mixed, with the current situation indicator rising to 87.10 (cons. 85.2), while the economic growth sentiment indicator fell back to 7.60 (cons. 11.30). The report suggests that Germany is probably at the upper point of its current economic cycle and there were concerns over second-round price effects from higher commodity prices.
German CPI was in line with consensus, staying unchanged at 2.1% y/y.
GBP
Sterling weakened after headline CPI for March came in well below consensus at +4.0% y/y (cons. +4.4%). With an uncertain growth outlook and deep internal divisions on the MPC, we remain cautious on sterling. Our UK economist points towards the April 27 Q1 GDP print for an indication of whether the middle-ground voters will join the hawks.
UK retail sales for March were disappointing, falling by -3.5% y/y. The drop in total sales is the worst since the BRC started collecting data in 1995. This is convincing evidence that austerity measures are feeding through into consumer demand.
CAD
The Bank of Canada kept policy unchanged as expected and adjusted its 2011 GDP forecasts to 2.9% (from 2.4% in January MPR) and to 2.6% (from 2.8%) for 2012. Officials said recent growth, though stronger than anticipated, is still largely consistent with their January projections and they reiterated that any further reduction of stimulus would need to be carefully considered. The BoC cited CAD strength as a challenge again and said it sees the emergence of broader global inflationary pressures due to commodity prices.
AUD
The upcoming speech by RBA Governor Stevens could provide some useful insight into current RBA thinking after recent mixed data releases. Stevens is expected to maintain his neutral stance and signal that the RBA is on hold for now.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
12th of April 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
12 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD 1.4500 resistance.
EURUSD BULLISH Initial resistance is at 1.4500, break of this level would open way to 1.4512/79 area. Support is at 1.4291.
USDJPY BULLISH Pullback through 84.03 has exposed 83.13; initial resistance is at 84.79 ahead of 85.53/93 area.
GBPUSD BULLISH Rise above 1.6458 would open up the way towards 1.6516, while initial support is at 1.6257.
USDCHF BEARISH Bear trend extends; break of 0.9038 exposes 0.8964 and 0.8852. Resistance is at 0.9200.
AUDUSD BULLISH The pair pulls back through 1.0412 for a minor correction to expose 1.0289; broader focus is on 1.0600/40 resistance zone.
USDCAD BEARISH Focus is on 0.9513/00 support area, while resistance lies at 0.9642.
EURCHF BULLISH As long as support at 1.2933 holds, expect recovery towards 1.3188 and 1.3243.
EURGBP BULLISH Resistance is at 0.8885 ahead of key high 0.8942, while support lies at 0.8759.
EURJPY BULLISH Sell-off holds above 120.00 keeping our focus on the upside where a break above 122.41 and 123.33 would signal further gains towards 125.00.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
12 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD 1.4500 resistance.
EURUSD BULLISH Initial resistance is at 1.4500, break of this level would open way to 1.4512/79 area. Support is at 1.4291.
USDJPY BULLISH Pullback through 84.03 has exposed 83.13; initial resistance is at 84.79 ahead of 85.53/93 area.
GBPUSD BULLISH Rise above 1.6458 would open up the way towards 1.6516, while initial support is at 1.6257.
USDCHF BEARISH Bear trend extends; break of 0.9038 exposes 0.8964 and 0.8852. Resistance is at 0.9200.
AUDUSD BULLISH The pair pulls back through 1.0412 for a minor correction to expose 1.0289; broader focus is on 1.0600/40 resistance zone.
USDCAD BEARISH Focus is on 0.9513/00 support area, while resistance lies at 0.9642.
EURCHF BULLISH As long as support at 1.2933 holds, expect recovery towards 1.3188 and 1.3243.
EURGBP BULLISH Resistance is at 0.8885 ahead of key high 0.8942, while support lies at 0.8759.
EURJPY BULLISH Sell-off holds above 120.00 keeping our focus on the upside where a break above 122.41 and 123.33 would signal further gains towards 125.00.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
12th of April 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
12 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk appetite was scaled back during the Asia session after another Japanese earthquake and news that Japanese officials had upgraded the severity of the nuclear disaster to a "7" - this is the highest possible level on the scale and puts the tragedy in Fukushima on a par with Chernobyl. The yen and the Swiss franc were bought on safe-haven demand, and AUDJPY in particular fell sharply. EURUSD traded 1.4377-1.4446, USDJPY 83.47-84.79. Crude also dropped amid hopes of a ceasefire in Libya, which helped to support the dollar. More dovish FOMC members stuck to their well-known views overnight. New York Fed President Dudley said the economy is in better shape than it was last summer, partly due to QE2, but cautioned that higher oil prices are curtailing some of the momentum. He also said it is important not to overreact to rising inflation, especially as inflation expectations remain anchored. Vice Chair Yellen said rising commodity prices do not warrant a policy shift, though she agreed officials cannot be complacent on inflation expectations, and said current accommodative policy is appropriate. Neither set of comments surprised, though their focus on inflation puts more emphasis on Friday's CPI release.
EUR
With rate expectations remaining a driver of the euro, market participants are likely to keep a closer eye on growth figures and leading indicators for any potential changes in the economic backdrop. German and Eurozone ZEW figures are due.
Irish Central Bank Governor Honohan declined to offer a forecast timeline for Ireland's return to the bond markets.
GBP
Our analysts expect March CPI to dip to 4.2% y/y (cons. 4.4%). Market participants have recently pared back expectations for BoE tightening, and a weaker CPI print today could further undermine sterling.
For the BoC, we expect no change in policy, in line with the other 27 institutions surveyed by Bloomberg as there seems to be little urgency to tighten especially as core inflation (0.9% y/y) is well below the mid-point of the bank's 1%-3% inflation target range. Officials will probably cite ongoing uncertainty regarding the global recovery.
NZD
RBNZ Governor Bollard said New Zealand's agricultural export prices are likely to remain strong for some time, which is likely to keep the NZD supported. Bollard warned that monetary policy would need to counteract any rise in inflation expectations if households and firms "use the income boost from higher commodity prices and exchange rates to bring forward consumption and investment".
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
12 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk appetite was scaled back during the Asia session after another Japanese earthquake and news that Japanese officials had upgraded the severity of the nuclear disaster to a "7" - this is the highest possible level on the scale and puts the tragedy in Fukushima on a par with Chernobyl. The yen and the Swiss franc were bought on safe-haven demand, and AUDJPY in particular fell sharply. EURUSD traded 1.4377-1.4446, USDJPY 83.47-84.79. Crude also dropped amid hopes of a ceasefire in Libya, which helped to support the dollar. More dovish FOMC members stuck to their well-known views overnight. New York Fed President Dudley said the economy is in better shape than it was last summer, partly due to QE2, but cautioned that higher oil prices are curtailing some of the momentum. He also said it is important not to overreact to rising inflation, especially as inflation expectations remain anchored. Vice Chair Yellen said rising commodity prices do not warrant a policy shift, though she agreed officials cannot be complacent on inflation expectations, and said current accommodative policy is appropriate. Neither set of comments surprised, though their focus on inflation puts more emphasis on Friday's CPI release.
EUR
With rate expectations remaining a driver of the euro, market participants are likely to keep a closer eye on growth figures and leading indicators for any potential changes in the economic backdrop. German and Eurozone ZEW figures are due.
Irish Central Bank Governor Honohan declined to offer a forecast timeline for Ireland's return to the bond markets.
GBP
Our analysts expect March CPI to dip to 4.2% y/y (cons. 4.4%). Market participants have recently pared back expectations for BoE tightening, and a weaker CPI print today could further undermine sterling.
For the BoC, we expect no change in policy, in line with the other 27 institutions surveyed by Bloomberg as there seems to be little urgency to tighten especially as core inflation (0.9% y/y) is well below the mid-point of the bank's 1%-3% inflation target range. Officials will probably cite ongoing uncertainty regarding the global recovery.
NZD
RBNZ Governor Bollard said New Zealand's agricultural export prices are likely to remain strong for some time, which is likely to keep the NZD supported. Bollard warned that monetary policy would need to counteract any rise in inflation expectations if households and firms "use the income boost from higher commodity prices and exchange rates to bring forward consumption and investment".
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Monday, April 11, 2011
11th of April 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
11th of April 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
11 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar failed to claw back ground lost on Friday, even though US politicians averted a "shutdown" of the Federal government by reaching an eleventh-hour compromise deal on spending plans. EURUSD traded 1.4441-1.4484, USDJPY 84.63-85.16. China trade data released over the weekend showed a sharp rebound in March, a result that is likely to support risk appetite today.
Fed Vice-Chair Yellen stuck to her dovish stance, noting that current "economic conditions do not yet call for the Fed to exit from unconventional policies". She also acknowledged that a "host of challenges" would need to be faced when the time comes to reverse the Fed's loose monetary policy. Dallas Fed President Fisher (2011 voter) continued to sound hawkish, and called on the Fed to stop "spiking the punch bowl" with accommodative policy. He warned that inflationary pressures are rising but "they are not out of hand yet". He entertained the idea of cutting asset purchases short before June, noting "it may well be that we should consider curtailing what remains of QE2". Atlanta Fed President Lockhart (2011 non-voter) said that the ECB's interest rate hike on Thursday has no effect on the Fed's policy posture.
EUR
The IMF confirmed that Portugal has asked for assistance and that the IMF is "prepared to move expeditiously". Germany's Finance Minister Schaeuble implied that Portugal would need to introduce further austerity measures and structural reforms in return for external financial assistance. The UK's Chancellor Osborne said that, unlike what had been offered to Ireland, on this occasion the UK would not extend a bilateral loan to Portugal. Portugal's Finance Minister Teixeira dos Santos said that the country was not applying for a short-term EU bridging loan and was instead focusing on negotiating a "full program" of external assistance.
Reuters, citing a German magazine article, reported that several EU finance ministers are now in favour of a Greek debt restructuring. However, EU Commissioner Rehn again excluded the possibility over the weekend. ECB President Trichet again invited all parties to stick to the terms of the EU/IMF/ECB rescue plan for Greece. Former Greek Central Bank Governor Papademos, and now advisor to the Greek government, said his first preference on the question of debt restructuring is to "do nothing and implement the program".
GBP
Bank of England MPC member Sentance again called for an interest rate hike, and noted that the possibility of early hikes is supporting sterling. Sentance is due to leave the MPC by the end of May.
UK PPI figures were well ahead of consensus expectations: output prices rose +5.4% y/y (cons. +5.1%) and input prices climbed +14.6% y/y (cons. +12.5%). These data provide further evidence of significant pipeline price pressures and bolster the case of MPC hawks. Our UK economist continues to expect an initial BoE hike in May.
CAD
Canadian headline employment levels were largely unchanged in March, disappointing consensus expectations. However, the full-time/part-time mix was far more encouraging. Full-time jobs registered their biggest monthly increase since Sept. 2009.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
11 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar failed to claw back ground lost on Friday, even though US politicians averted a "shutdown" of the Federal government by reaching an eleventh-hour compromise deal on spending plans. EURUSD traded 1.4441-1.4484, USDJPY 84.63-85.16. China trade data released over the weekend showed a sharp rebound in March, a result that is likely to support risk appetite today.
Fed Vice-Chair Yellen stuck to her dovish stance, noting that current "economic conditions do not yet call for the Fed to exit from unconventional policies". She also acknowledged that a "host of challenges" would need to be faced when the time comes to reverse the Fed's loose monetary policy. Dallas Fed President Fisher (2011 voter) continued to sound hawkish, and called on the Fed to stop "spiking the punch bowl" with accommodative policy. He warned that inflationary pressures are rising but "they are not out of hand yet". He entertained the idea of cutting asset purchases short before June, noting "it may well be that we should consider curtailing what remains of QE2". Atlanta Fed President Lockhart (2011 non-voter) said that the ECB's interest rate hike on Thursday has no effect on the Fed's policy posture.
EUR
The IMF confirmed that Portugal has asked for assistance and that the IMF is "prepared to move expeditiously". Germany's Finance Minister Schaeuble implied that Portugal would need to introduce further austerity measures and structural reforms in return for external financial assistance. The UK's Chancellor Osborne said that, unlike what had been offered to Ireland, on this occasion the UK would not extend a bilateral loan to Portugal. Portugal's Finance Minister Teixeira dos Santos said that the country was not applying for a short-term EU bridging loan and was instead focusing on negotiating a "full program" of external assistance.
Reuters, citing a German magazine article, reported that several EU finance ministers are now in favour of a Greek debt restructuring. However, EU Commissioner Rehn again excluded the possibility over the weekend. ECB President Trichet again invited all parties to stick to the terms of the EU/IMF/ECB rescue plan for Greece. Former Greek Central Bank Governor Papademos, and now advisor to the Greek government, said his first preference on the question of debt restructuring is to "do nothing and implement the program".
GBP
Bank of England MPC member Sentance again called for an interest rate hike, and noted that the possibility of early hikes is supporting sterling. Sentance is due to leave the MPC by the end of May.
UK PPI figures were well ahead of consensus expectations: output prices rose +5.4% y/y (cons. +5.1%) and input prices climbed +14.6% y/y (cons. +12.5%). These data provide further evidence of significant pipeline price pressures and bolster the case of MPC hawks. Our UK economist continues to expect an initial BoE hike in May.
CAD
Canadian headline employment levels were largely unchanged in March, disappointing consensus expectations. However, the full-time/part-time mix was far more encouraging. Full-time jobs registered their biggest monthly increase since Sept. 2009.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
11th of April 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
11 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURGBP targets 0.8853.
EURUSD BULLISH Upside potential holds below 1.4500 ahead of the 1.4512/79 resistance area. Support is at 1.4291.
USDJPY BULLISH Push through the 85.53/93 resistance zone would expose 86.38. Initial support is at 84.51.
GBPUSD BULLISH Next resistance above 1.6458 lies at 1.6516, while initial support is at 1.6257.
USDCHF BEARISH Break of 0.9038 would expose 0.8964 and 0.8852. Resistance is at 0.9200.
AUDUSD BULLISH Outlook remains bullish; the pair targets 1.0600/40 resistance zone. Support is at 1.0412.
USDCAD BEARISH Downtrend is intact; support is at 0.9513/00 area. Resistance lies at 0.9642.
EURCHF BULLISH While support at 1.3055 holds, expect gains towards 1.3243 and 1.3287 next.
EURGBP BULLISH Following the break of 0.8820, the cross targets 0.8853. Support is at 0.8759.
EURJPY BULLISH Clearance of 123.33 would signal further gains towards 125.00. Support lies at 121.34.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
11 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURGBP targets 0.8853.
EURUSD BULLISH Upside potential holds below 1.4500 ahead of the 1.4512/79 resistance area. Support is at 1.4291.
USDJPY BULLISH Push through the 85.53/93 resistance zone would expose 86.38. Initial support is at 84.51.
GBPUSD BULLISH Next resistance above 1.6458 lies at 1.6516, while initial support is at 1.6257.
USDCHF BEARISH Break of 0.9038 would expose 0.8964 and 0.8852. Resistance is at 0.9200.
AUDUSD BULLISH Outlook remains bullish; the pair targets 1.0600/40 resistance zone. Support is at 1.0412.
USDCAD BEARISH Downtrend is intact; support is at 0.9513/00 area. Resistance lies at 0.9642.
EURCHF BULLISH While support at 1.3055 holds, expect gains towards 1.3243 and 1.3287 next.
EURGBP BULLISH Following the break of 0.8820, the cross targets 0.8853. Support is at 0.8759.
EURJPY BULLISH Clearance of 123.33 would signal further gains towards 125.00. Support lies at 121.34.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Friday, April 08, 2011
8th of April 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
8 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDCHF clears 0.9127.
EURUSD BULLISH A break through 1.4414 would pave the way for a run towards 1.4512/79 area. Initial support is at 1.4243.
USDJPY BULLISH Break above resistance 85.93 would expose 86.38. Initial support is at 84.51.
GBPUSD BULLISH Pressure on key resistance 1.6401 to hold, break of which would expose 1.6458. Support lies at 1.6257.
USDCHF BEARISH Move below 0.9127 has triggered a bearish tone and exposed 0.9096/38 area. Resistance is at 0.9296.
AUDUSD BULLISH Uptrend is intact; break of 1.0500 has exposed 1.0600/40 resistance zone. Support is at 1.0412.
USDCAD BEARISH Focus is on 0.9513/00 support area. Resistance lies at 0.9642.
EURCHF BULLISH Support at 1.3055 needs to hold to maintain the bullish trend. Resistance is at 1.3243/87 area.
EURGBP BULLISH Break of 0.8820 is required to confirm resumption of bull trend, next resistance is at 0.8853. Support is at 0.8714.
EURJPY BULLISH While support at 120.69 holds, look for gains towards 123.32 and 125.00 next.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
8 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDCHF clears 0.9127.
EURUSD BULLISH A break through 1.4414 would pave the way for a run towards 1.4512/79 area. Initial support is at 1.4243.
USDJPY BULLISH Break above resistance 85.93 would expose 86.38. Initial support is at 84.51.
GBPUSD BULLISH Pressure on key resistance 1.6401 to hold, break of which would expose 1.6458. Support lies at 1.6257.
USDCHF BEARISH Move below 0.9127 has triggered a bearish tone and exposed 0.9096/38 area. Resistance is at 0.9296.
AUDUSD BULLISH Uptrend is intact; break of 1.0500 has exposed 1.0600/40 resistance zone. Support is at 1.0412.
USDCAD BEARISH Focus is on 0.9513/00 support area. Resistance lies at 0.9642.
EURCHF BULLISH Support at 1.3055 needs to hold to maintain the bullish trend. Resistance is at 1.3243/87 area.
EURGBP BULLISH Break of 0.8820 is required to confirm resumption of bull trend, next resistance is at 0.8853. Support is at 0.8714.
EURJPY BULLISH While support at 120.69 holds, look for gains towards 123.32 and 125.00 next.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
8th of April 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
8 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk sentiment has been supported overnight, mainly in response to the confirmation that the Fukushima nuclear plant has not suffered damage on the back of yesterday's sizeable aftershock in northeast Japan. Hence most Asian stock market indices are trading firmly in the black. Elsewhere, US President Obama and Congressional leaders have so far failed to reach a budget deal to avoid a government shutdown. President Obama said less than 30 hours are left to reach an agreement, though he added that an agreement is still expected during the day. EURUSD traded 1.4292-1.4405 and USDJPY traded 84.97-85.39.
EUR
The ECB hiked the refinancing rate by 25bp as expected but the tone of the press conference was not enough to push market participants' expectations too far in either direction. Although ECB President Trichet did not indicate that yesterday's rate hike was the first in a series, he did once again say that the ECB will act as needed and that interest rates remain exceptionally low. He added that it is paramount to avoid second-round effects and that the ECB will do all in order to ensure price stability. Rate expectations have stayed stable following his comments. Along with stable risk sentiment, this is keeping the euro supported.
Eurozone finance ministers are holding an informal meeting in Hungary and they are expected to discuss the pending aid package for Portugal, though a formal request still needs to be extended by Portugal. The meeting should not yield much, as the package will take a couple of weeks to craft, and the press cited a senior EU source saying that the plan will be agreed before the June 5 election.
German Deputy Finance Minister Hoyer said that the Portugal decision to take EU aid is right and responsible, and that without the EFSF, Portugal and Eurozone could have been very much at risk
GBP
Yesterday, the BoE kept policy unchanged as expected, which shifts the focus to the BoE minutes on April 20. Our economist expects the first hike in May but pricing based on overnight indexed swaps showed some paring back of market expectations for future BoE policy.
CAD
In Canada, we expect a modest gain in employment of 20.0k and an unchanged unemployment rate at 7.8%. A positive reading should benefit the Canadian dollar and elevated oil prices also continue to support the currency.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
8 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk sentiment has been supported overnight, mainly in response to the confirmation that the Fukushima nuclear plant has not suffered damage on the back of yesterday's sizeable aftershock in northeast Japan. Hence most Asian stock market indices are trading firmly in the black. Elsewhere, US President Obama and Congressional leaders have so far failed to reach a budget deal to avoid a government shutdown. President Obama said less than 30 hours are left to reach an agreement, though he added that an agreement is still expected during the day. EURUSD traded 1.4292-1.4405 and USDJPY traded 84.97-85.39.
EUR
The ECB hiked the refinancing rate by 25bp as expected but the tone of the press conference was not enough to push market participants' expectations too far in either direction. Although ECB President Trichet did not indicate that yesterday's rate hike was the first in a series, he did once again say that the ECB will act as needed and that interest rates remain exceptionally low. He added that it is paramount to avoid second-round effects and that the ECB will do all in order to ensure price stability. Rate expectations have stayed stable following his comments. Along with stable risk sentiment, this is keeping the euro supported.
Eurozone finance ministers are holding an informal meeting in Hungary and they are expected to discuss the pending aid package for Portugal, though a formal request still needs to be extended by Portugal. The meeting should not yield much, as the package will take a couple of weeks to craft, and the press cited a senior EU source saying that the plan will be agreed before the June 5 election.
German Deputy Finance Minister Hoyer said that the Portugal decision to take EU aid is right and responsible, and that without the EFSF, Portugal and Eurozone could have been very much at risk
GBP
Yesterday, the BoE kept policy unchanged as expected, which shifts the focus to the BoE minutes on April 20. Our economist expects the first hike in May but pricing based on overnight indexed swaps showed some paring back of market expectations for future BoE policy.
CAD
In Canada, we expect a modest gain in employment of 20.0k and an unchanged unemployment rate at 7.8%. A positive reading should benefit the Canadian dollar and elevated oil prices also continue to support the currency.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Thursday, April 07, 2011
7th of April 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
7 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar drifted higher against most G10 currencies during the Asia session. AUDUSD was the exception however, hitting a new post-float high after a stronger-than-expected employment report. The euro showed no obvious ill effects from Portugal's decision to request external financial assistance. Clearly, rate expectations continue to be the key driver of currencies, as market participants look ahead to the ECB meeting. EURUSD traded 1.4297-1.4343, USDJPY 85.11-85.50. There were no major releases in the US and the upcoming initial jobless claims could be overshadowed by the ECB press conference. Atlanta Fed President Lockhart, an alternate FOMC voter this year, did not rule out policy tightening this year though he said he himself is not leaning in the direction of that just yet as he supports finishing QE2 as planned. Lockhart said inflation had firmed up, as the Fed had expected, and he is comfortable with current inflation numbers.
EUR
Portugal formally requested EU assistance following a bill auction that showed borrowing costs continue to rise. Prime Minister Socrates said the country needs help to guarantee its financing needs and the Portuguese opposition leader supported the request for aid. No details were announced but EU officials said the request was "responsible" and would be processed quickly.
The ECB's policy announcement is due, and our European economists are with the consensus looking for a 25bp hike to the refi rate. They also expect the corridor between the deposit and marginal lending facilities to be extended back to its pre-crisis width of 100bp. This would take the marginal lending facility +50bp higher to 2.25%.
At the ECB press conference due 45 minutes after the policy announcement, our economists expect President Trichet will say this is not the start of a series of rate hikes, a claim he has also made during a previous tightening cycle. However, his other remarks will be closely followed to see if current market expectations of future rate hikes are justified.
Final numbers for GDP in the Eurozone were in line with consensus at 2.0% y/y, while German factory orders accelerated to 20.1% y/y from 16.0 in January.
JPY
The BoJ kept the policy rate range unchanged at 0-0.1%. However, it has decided to create a new loan facility with a maximum size of JPY1 trn, for banks located in the earthquake-affected region.
We raised our long-term USDJPY forecasts, and now see the pair at 90 at end-2011 (prev. 85), and at 100 at end-2012 (prev. 90).
GBP
UK manufacturing and industrial production numbers were disappointing.
Canada's Ivey PMI surprised to the upside and benefited the Canadian dollar before it gave up some gains later in the session. Even though the data series is volatile, it is worth nothing this reading was the highest since May 2006.
CHF
The CPI print for March was significantly higher than expectations at +1.0 y/y (cons. +0.5%). The increase was broad-based with clothing and fuel-related prices rising substantially. However, some of the surprise can be attributed to methodological changes in the estimates. CHF rallied strongly on the number.
We remain long EURCHF from 1.2825 as a trade recommendation, targeting a move up to 1.3500. Our stop sits at 1.3020. We expect the cross to push even higher on the back of solid risk appetite, rising ECB tightening expectations, and a dovish SNB.
AUD
AUDUSD hit a new post-float high of 1.0482 after another stronger-than-expected employment report. Employment in March grew by +37.8k (cons. +24.0k), while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.9% (prev. 5.0%). Our Australia economists stick to their view that the next RBA hike will come in August.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
7 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The dollar drifted higher against most G10 currencies during the Asia session. AUDUSD was the exception however, hitting a new post-float high after a stronger-than-expected employment report. The euro showed no obvious ill effects from Portugal's decision to request external financial assistance. Clearly, rate expectations continue to be the key driver of currencies, as market participants look ahead to the ECB meeting. EURUSD traded 1.4297-1.4343, USDJPY 85.11-85.50. There were no major releases in the US and the upcoming initial jobless claims could be overshadowed by the ECB press conference. Atlanta Fed President Lockhart, an alternate FOMC voter this year, did not rule out policy tightening this year though he said he himself is not leaning in the direction of that just yet as he supports finishing QE2 as planned. Lockhart said inflation had firmed up, as the Fed had expected, and he is comfortable with current inflation numbers.
EUR
Portugal formally requested EU assistance following a bill auction that showed borrowing costs continue to rise. Prime Minister Socrates said the country needs help to guarantee its financing needs and the Portuguese opposition leader supported the request for aid. No details were announced but EU officials said the request was "responsible" and would be processed quickly.
The ECB's policy announcement is due, and our European economists are with the consensus looking for a 25bp hike to the refi rate. They also expect the corridor between the deposit and marginal lending facilities to be extended back to its pre-crisis width of 100bp. This would take the marginal lending facility +50bp higher to 2.25%.
At the ECB press conference due 45 minutes after the policy announcement, our economists expect President Trichet will say this is not the start of a series of rate hikes, a claim he has also made during a previous tightening cycle. However, his other remarks will be closely followed to see if current market expectations of future rate hikes are justified.
Final numbers for GDP in the Eurozone were in line with consensus at 2.0% y/y, while German factory orders accelerated to 20.1% y/y from 16.0 in January.
JPY
The BoJ kept the policy rate range unchanged at 0-0.1%. However, it has decided to create a new loan facility with a maximum size of JPY1 trn, for banks located in the earthquake-affected region.
We raised our long-term USDJPY forecasts, and now see the pair at 90 at end-2011 (prev. 85), and at 100 at end-2012 (prev. 90).
GBP
UK manufacturing and industrial production numbers were disappointing.
Canada's Ivey PMI surprised to the upside and benefited the Canadian dollar before it gave up some gains later in the session. Even though the data series is volatile, it is worth nothing this reading was the highest since May 2006.
CHF
The CPI print for March was significantly higher than expectations at +1.0 y/y (cons. +0.5%). The increase was broad-based with clothing and fuel-related prices rising substantially. However, some of the surprise can be attributed to methodological changes in the estimates. CHF rallied strongly on the number.
We remain long EURCHF from 1.2825 as a trade recommendation, targeting a move up to 1.3500. Our stop sits at 1.3020. We expect the cross to push even higher on the back of solid risk appetite, rising ECB tightening expectations, and a dovish SNB.
AUD
AUDUSD hit a new post-float high of 1.0482 after another stronger-than-expected employment report. Employment in March grew by +37.8k (cons. +24.0k), while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.9% (prev. 5.0%). Our Australia economists stick to their view that the next RBA hike will come in August.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
7th of April 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
7 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURJPY 122.61 resistance.
EURUSD BULLISH Traded above 1.4282 and focus is now on 1.4373 ahead of 1.4414 and 1.4512 next. Support lies at 1.4208 ahead of 1.4152.
USDJPY BULLISH Focus is on 85.93, a break here would expose 86.38. Near-term support is at 84.84.
GBPUSD BULLISH Key resistance lies at 1.6401; a move above the level would expose 1.6458. Support lies at 1.6091.
USDCHF NEUTRAL 0.9369 and 0.9127 have become the key near-term directional triggers.
AUDUSD BULLISH Bull trend extends; rise above 1.0425 has exposed 1.0500. Support is at 1.0289.
USDCAD BEARISH With the break of 0.9584 bear trend continues; focus is now on 0.9513/00 support area. Resistance is at 0.9693.
EURCHF BULLISH Break of 1.3287 would expose 1.3401 next. Support is at 1.3055/11 zone.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Initial resistance is at 0.8820; break of this would favour resumption of bull trend and expose 0.8853. Support is at 0.8714.
EURJPY BULLISH Gains found resistance at 122.61 Fibonacci level; break of this would lead to 125.00. Initial support is at 120.69.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
7 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURJPY 122.61 resistance.
EURUSD BULLISH Traded above 1.4282 and focus is now on 1.4373 ahead of 1.4414 and 1.4512 next. Support lies at 1.4208 ahead of 1.4152.
USDJPY BULLISH Focus is on 85.93, a break here would expose 86.38. Near-term support is at 84.84.
GBPUSD BULLISH Key resistance lies at 1.6401; a move above the level would expose 1.6458. Support lies at 1.6091.
USDCHF NEUTRAL 0.9369 and 0.9127 have become the key near-term directional triggers.
AUDUSD BULLISH Bull trend extends; rise above 1.0425 has exposed 1.0500. Support is at 1.0289.
USDCAD BEARISH With the break of 0.9584 bear trend continues; focus is now on 0.9513/00 support area. Resistance is at 0.9693.
EURCHF BULLISH Break of 1.3287 would expose 1.3401 next. Support is at 1.3055/11 zone.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Initial resistance is at 0.8820; break of this would favour resumption of bull trend and expose 0.8853. Support is at 0.8714.
EURJPY BULLISH Gains found resistance at 122.61 Fibonacci level; break of this would lead to 125.00. Initial support is at 120.69.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Wednesday, April 06, 2011
6th of April 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
6 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The FOMC minutes from the March 15 meeting confirmed what recent Fed speeches have suggested - a mild divergence of opinion is starting to emerge on the FOMC. Australian economic data continues to turn over, and home loan lending declined again in February. EURUSD traded 1.4208-1.4267, USDJPY 84.58-85.53. The FOMC minutes revealed that some members felt the risks to inflation had shifted to the upside, although "almost all" Fed officials saw no need to taper asset purchases as QE2 nears an end. The minutes repeated that the recovery is gaining traction and overall reflected the recent shift in views from several Fed officials. No members dissented. In US data, the non-manufacturing ISM index fell more than expected to 57.3 in March. Before the latest drop the index had increased in each of the prior six reports. Some of the softening in March appears to have reflected anxiety about the natural disaster in Japan than a meaningful change in activity. With attention focused on relative central bank policies for now, upcoming releases ahead may not be enough to spark a meaningful move in the near term.
EUR
Portugal's sovereign debt was cut to Baa1 from A3 by Moody's. Fitch and S&P rate the sovereign two notches lower. Moody's kept Portugal on review for further downgrades, citing upward revisions of Portugal's deficit and concerns over fiscal consolidation and structural reform. The euro retreated on the announcement, but remains largely driven by ECB rate hike anticipations for the moment.
EU service PMI was revised up to 57.2 from 56.9, pointing towards an acceleration of growth in Q1.
GBP
Services PMI in the UK was strongly above consensus at 57.1. While the firm print is unlikely to alter the decision of the MPC members at this week's meeting, the data support the view of our UK economist who is calling for a May hike.
CHF
SNB Governing Board member Danthine again referred to the SNB's current policy dilemma. He repeated that, if the SNB only had to consider the real estate market and the domestic economy, then it would certainly hike interest rates. But given that different conditions are being experienced by Switzerland's exporters, there is limited scope for monetary policy adjustment. Taking the whole economy (domestic and export) into account, Danthine said the current setting of monetary policy is appropriate.
We expect Swiss CPI to show a further fading of deflationary risks, and expect the annualized reading to rise to +0.6% y/y (cons. +0.5%, prev. +0.5%).
CAD
Canada's Department of Finance revealed that the size of Canada's contribution to the coordinated yen intervention announced on March 18 was US$0.124 bn.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
6 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The FOMC minutes from the March 15 meeting confirmed what recent Fed speeches have suggested - a mild divergence of opinion is starting to emerge on the FOMC. Australian economic data continues to turn over, and home loan lending declined again in February. EURUSD traded 1.4208-1.4267, USDJPY 84.58-85.53. The FOMC minutes revealed that some members felt the risks to inflation had shifted to the upside, although "almost all" Fed officials saw no need to taper asset purchases as QE2 nears an end. The minutes repeated that the recovery is gaining traction and overall reflected the recent shift in views from several Fed officials. No members dissented. In US data, the non-manufacturing ISM index fell more than expected to 57.3 in March. Before the latest drop the index had increased in each of the prior six reports. Some of the softening in March appears to have reflected anxiety about the natural disaster in Japan than a meaningful change in activity. With attention focused on relative central bank policies for now, upcoming releases ahead may not be enough to spark a meaningful move in the near term.
EUR
Portugal's sovereign debt was cut to Baa1 from A3 by Moody's. Fitch and S&P rate the sovereign two notches lower. Moody's kept Portugal on review for further downgrades, citing upward revisions of Portugal's deficit and concerns over fiscal consolidation and structural reform. The euro retreated on the announcement, but remains largely driven by ECB rate hike anticipations for the moment.
EU service PMI was revised up to 57.2 from 56.9, pointing towards an acceleration of growth in Q1.
GBP
Services PMI in the UK was strongly above consensus at 57.1. While the firm print is unlikely to alter the decision of the MPC members at this week's meeting, the data support the view of our UK economist who is calling for a May hike.
CHF
SNB Governing Board member Danthine again referred to the SNB's current policy dilemma. He repeated that, if the SNB only had to consider the real estate market and the domestic economy, then it would certainly hike interest rates. But given that different conditions are being experienced by Switzerland's exporters, there is limited scope for monetary policy adjustment. Taking the whole economy (domestic and export) into account, Danthine said the current setting of monetary policy is appropriate.
We expect Swiss CPI to show a further fading of deflationary risks, and expect the annualized reading to rise to +0.6% y/y (cons. +0.5%, prev. +0.5%).
CAD
Canada's Department of Finance revealed that the size of Canada's contribution to the coordinated yen intervention announced on March 18 was US$0.124 bn.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
6th of April 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
6 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURCHF clears 1.3205.
EURUSD BULLISH Upside potential pressures 1.4282 remains intact, next resistance is at 1.4373. Near-term support lies at 1.4152.
USDJPY BULLISH The pair gained through 84.73 and 85.40 exposes 85.93. Support at 84.86 intraday low.
GBPUSD BULLISH Sharp recovery through 1.6291 has triggered positive tone and exposed 1.6401 key high. Support lies at 1.6091.
USDCHF NEUTRAL A break through 0.9340/69 would signal further gains towards 0.9423. Support lies at 0.9127 ahead of 0.9096.
AUDUSD BULLISH As long as support at 1.0202 holds, look for resistance at 1.0425 ahead of 1.0500.
USDCAD BEARISH Focus is on initial support at 0.9600 ahead of 0.9584. Resistance is at 0.9707/54 area.
EURCHF BULLISH Rise above 1.3205 has exposed 1.3287. Support is at 1.3055.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Sudden decline through 0.8776 has opened up the way towards 0.8663//55 support area. Recovery through 0.8820 would expose 0.8853 key high.
EURJPY BULLISH Momentum is positive; focus is on 122.33/61 resistance area, move above this would open 125.00. Support lies at 117.68.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
6 April 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURCHF clears 1.3205.
EURUSD BULLISH Upside potential pressures 1.4282 remains intact, next resistance is at 1.4373. Near-term support lies at 1.4152.
USDJPY BULLISH The pair gained through 84.73 and 85.40 exposes 85.93. Support at 84.86 intraday low.
GBPUSD BULLISH Sharp recovery through 1.6291 has triggered positive tone and exposed 1.6401 key high. Support lies at 1.6091.
USDCHF NEUTRAL A break through 0.9340/69 would signal further gains towards 0.9423. Support lies at 0.9127 ahead of 0.9096.
AUDUSD BULLISH As long as support at 1.0202 holds, look for resistance at 1.0425 ahead of 1.0500.
USDCAD BEARISH Focus is on initial support at 0.9600 ahead of 0.9584. Resistance is at 0.9707/54 area.
EURCHF BULLISH Rise above 1.3205 has exposed 1.3287. Support is at 1.3055.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Sudden decline through 0.8776 has opened up the way towards 0.8663//55 support area. Recovery through 0.8820 would expose 0.8853 key high.
EURJPY BULLISH Momentum is positive; focus is on 122.33/61 resistance area, move above this would open 125.00. Support lies at 117.68.
SCHEDULE
Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
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