+++ market trends - news - analysis - strategies and more! +++
Friday, April 20, 2012
20th of April 2012 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
20 April 2012 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD BEARISH Initial support lies at 1.3058, a move below would signal resumption of weakness towards 1.2974/54 area. Resistance is at 1.3213.
USDJPY NEUTRAL A clear break through 81.78 would be a bullish development signalling scope for further gains towards 82.24. Support is at 80.84.
GBPUSD BULLISH Key resistance is at 1.6090, a break above would open the doors for a move towards 1.6167. Support lies at 1.5950.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Initial resistance is at 0.9252, a move above would open 0.9335. Support lies at 0.9092 ahead of 0.9002.
AUDUSD BEARISH Trend conditions are bearish; there is scope for a move towards 1.0226. Resistance is at 1.0471.
USDCAD BEARISH Key support lies at 0.9842, a break here would be a bearish development. Next support is at 0.9766. Resistance is at 1.0053.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.2049 ahead of 1.2070, while support lies at 1.2000.
EURGBP BEARISH Focus is on support at 0.8142; a break here would extend weakness towards 0.8068. Resistance is at 0.8222.
EURJPY NEUTRAL The cross pressures 107.47, a break above would resume strength and opens 108.04. Support is at 106.11 ahead of 105.29.
SCHEDULE
Please visit our Economic Calendar for a for a schedule of market news and events: http://www.fibosignals.com/5585/calendar.html.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
20th of April 2012 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
20 April 2012 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
WORLD
USDJPY consolidated overnight with FOMC and BoJ policy meetings drawing closer. Our analysts are not concerned about yesterday's higher-than-expected initial jobless claims data. Instead, they point to distortions associated with Easter holidays and the cross over to a new quarter, which led to volatility and an upside bias. Economic data elsewhere also disappointed: existing home sales fell to an annual rate of 4.48 mn and April Philly Fed manufacturing index down to 8.5.
Meanwhile, Bank of Japan remains under intense political pressure to ease again. Economy Minister Furukawa urged the BoJ to take steps to achieve its 1% price goal for the second day in a row. He explicitly pointed to the option of buying JGBs with longer maturities, a possible policy outcome that could be particularly yen-negative. The key deciding factor could well be the growing political pressure on BoJ for more concessions as Noda administration battles to get the consumption tax hike passed in the Diet. Implicit here is the gradual Fed-BoJ policy divergence that should keep USDJPY risks tilted upwards to 85 in a three-month horizon amid a fading 'home currency bias' among Japanese investors.
While the Fed will be in no rush to categorically rule out QE3, we maintain the case for further easing is less convincing in the US than Japan. Ahead today, the focus will be on the IFO numbers in Germany and the G-20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors in the US. Canadian CPI numbers will be particularly noteworthy after the bank adopted an explicit tightening bias earlier this week.
EUR
The much anticipated Spanish auctions were largely uneventful. The Treasury managed to sell EUR1.2 bn of the 2014's and 1.42bn of the 2022's - at the upper end of targets. The bid-to-covers were also reasonable, coming in at 2.42x on the 10-year bond. The euro rallied after the results were released, but soon ran out of steam after breaking through 1.3150.
Japan's Finance Minister Azumi said there is a high chance the IMF will succeed in raising nearly $400 bn in funding pledges by the time the Spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank come to an end over the weekend.
JPY
Japan's Economy Minister Furukawa - for the second day in a row - said that the BoJ has the option of buying JGBs with longer maturities, and he expressed the hope that the bank will consider taking steps to achieve its 1% price goal. As such, political pressure on the central bank remains fierce and we would expect no respite ahead of next week's policy decision.
Though the tally was rather modest at JPY116 bn, the fact that the Japanese were net foreign bond buyers to the tune of JPY116 bn from April 8-14 reinforces our view that the large net sales (JPY1.9 trn) recorded in the first week of April reflected profit taking rather than the start of a sustained retreat from overseas markets. Bear in mind that Japanese investors have been better buyers in 12 of the past 15 weeks, chalking up cumulative net purchases of over JPY6 trn in the January-March quarter alone - defying seasonal fears of repatriation ahead of the fiscal year-end. Fed-BoJ policy divergence aside, our stronger USDJPY call hinges on our assumption that the strong 'home currency bias' evident in 2011 will gradually fade this year, as Japanese retail and institutional investors search for better returns abroad - complemented by increased direct investment flows overseas.
GBP
In a letter published in The Independent ("Why I changed my vote"), the BoE's Posen argued that his vote for no change at the latest MPC meeting "really should not have" surprised anyone, highlighting his belief that "the risks are largely balanced around inflation being below but close to target over the forecast horizon". Posen noted that he "never was an automatic vote for more QE" and "the latest data convinced me that for now an additional ?25 billion could be unnecessary". Posen concluded by saying "neither the MPC nor markets should overreact to one month's number, nor even to one vote. We will make a forecast that makes best sense of current conditions, and vote accordingly, whether that is for more QE or not".
Posen went on to echo a sentiment often expressed by Fed officials. He said that the degree of accommodation at a given moment depends on the stock of accumulated bond purchases to date, rather than on the flow of additional purchases. His point is that Bank of England policy settings will remain extremely accommodative even if fresh asset purchases do not continue beyond the end of April - when the existing asset purchase target is expected to be reached.
AUD
Australian export prices fell more sharply in Q1 than the consensus expected. They dropped -7% q/q in Australian dollar terms.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Thursday, April 19, 2012
19th of April 2012 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
19 April 2012 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURJPY 107.47 resistance
EURUSD BEARISH Focus on support at 1.2974/54 area, a break through which would signal extension of weakness. Resistance is at 1.3213.
USDJPY NEUTRAL A move above 81.78 would open the way to 82.24. Key support area is at 80.30/10.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Resistance area is marked at 1.6063/90, while support lies at 1.5895.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Initial resistance is at 0.9252, a move above would open 0.9335. Support lies at 0.9092 ahead of 0.9002.
AUDUSD BEARISH Trend conditions are bearish; a break below 1.0305 would extend the downtrend towards 1.0226. Resistance is at 1.0471.
USDCAD BEARISH Key support lies at 0.9842, a break here would be a bearish development and open the way towards 0.9766. Resistance is at 1.0053.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.2049 ahead of 1.2070, while support lies at 1.2000.
EURGBP BEARISH Support now lies at 0.8142; a break here would extend weakness towards 0.8068. Resistance is at 0.8279.
EURJPY NEUTRAL The recovery targets resistance at 107.47, a move above would open 108.04. Support is at 104.63/24 area.
SCHEDULE
Please visit our Economic Calendar for a for a schedule of market news and events: http://www.fibosignals.com/5585/calendar.html.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
19 April 2012 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURJPY 107.47 resistance
EURUSD BEARISH Focus on support at 1.2974/54 area, a break through which would signal extension of weakness. Resistance is at 1.3213.
USDJPY NEUTRAL A move above 81.78 would open the way to 82.24. Key support area is at 80.30/10.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Resistance area is marked at 1.6063/90, while support lies at 1.5895.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Initial resistance is at 0.9252, a move above would open 0.9335. Support lies at 0.9092 ahead of 0.9002.
AUDUSD BEARISH Trend conditions are bearish; a break below 1.0305 would extend the downtrend towards 1.0226. Resistance is at 1.0471.
USDCAD BEARISH Key support lies at 0.9842, a break here would be a bearish development and open the way towards 0.9766. Resistance is at 1.0053.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.2049 ahead of 1.2070, while support lies at 1.2000.
EURGBP BEARISH Support now lies at 0.8142; a break here would extend weakness towards 0.8068. Resistance is at 0.8279.
EURJPY NEUTRAL The recovery targets resistance at 107.47, a move above would open 108.04. Support is at 104.63/24 area.
SCHEDULE
Please visit our Economic Calendar for a for a schedule of market news and events: http://www.fibosignals.com/5585/calendar.html.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
19th of April 2012 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
19 April 2012 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
WORLD
Trading was subdued in Asia overnight given a light economic data calendar, but investor attention is noticeably turning to what next week's two policy meetings will bring. The FOMC and the BoJ policy decisions are likely to set the tone for USDJPY for months to come, and USDJPY is already creeping higher in anticipation. BoJ Governor Shirakawa fanned expectations overnight by saying he is 'committed' to continued monetary easing in order to meet the 1% inflation goal. He also sounded quite downbeat about the general economic outlook, noting Japan has "stagnated" and that growth in developed economies elsewhere is "anemic". There was nothing in these remarks to dampen our expectations of further easing at the next policy meeting on April 27.
The Bank of Canada has other intentions - it backed up Tuesday's warning that "some modest withdrawal of the present considerable monetary policy stimulus may become appropriate" with an upgraded 2012 GDP forecast of 2.4% (versus 2.0% previously) in its Monetary Policy Report. This underpins our generally bullish Canadian dollar view and three-month USDCAD target of 0.98. Together with the Bank of England turning considerably less dovish while the RBA signals a possible upcoming rate cut, central bank opinion has not been so diverse in quite some time.
Today, the euro is likely to be highly sensitive to any surprise emerging from today's sovereign bond auction in Spain. Our rates strategy colleagues think the small amount (EUR 1.5 bn-2.5 bn) of bonds being sold is likely to be comfortably absorbed by the market.
EUR
IMF Managing Director Lagarde said that member countries have so far committed $316 bn in additional lending capacity to the fund. We expect further news over the coming days as the Spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank come to an end.
Italy has followed Spain in pushing back its balanced budget goal, as it now expects a deficit of 0.5% for 2013 against a previous estimate of 0.1%. Prime Minister Monti announced that the economy is likely to shrink by 1.2% in 2012, far more than government's earlier forecast of -0.4%.
In its Global Financial Stability Report, IMF noted that European banks could shrink their balance sheets by $2.6 trn over the next 18 months, with the bulk of the deleveraging happening through the sale of non-core assets while credit supply drops by 1.7%. This will likely reawaken investor discussion about how repatriation flows from the sale of overseas subsidiaries could lend the euro some support, or at least result in a more gradual decline than would otherwise be the case.
Non-performing loans as a proportion of total lending in Spain jumped to 8.16% in February - the highest level since 1994, and up from 7.91% in January and less than 1% in 2007.
JPY
BoJ Governor Shirakawa said he is 'committed' to continued monetary easing to meet the 1% inflation goal. He also sounded quite downbeat about the general economic outlook, noting Japan has "stagnated" and that growth in developed economies elsewhere is "anemic". There was nothing in these remarks to dampen our expectations of further easing at the next policy meeting on April 27.
Japan's trade deficit continued into March. Imports grew faster than exports. Interestingly, exports to the US rose +23.9% y/y while exports bound for Europe fell -9.7% y/y. This is further evidence of a strengthening US recovery while Europe struggles under the weight of fiscal consolidation, and it supports our 1.25 3m forecast on EURUSD.
GBP
The April BoE minutes revealed that the MPC voted 8-1 to keep QE unchanged and 9-0 for an unchanged policy rate. Adam Posen , the staunch dove, changed his vote and voted in line with the majority. The sole voter for further QE was David Miles, who said that his was a "fine decision". This marks an important turnaround inside the BoE, with Posen having hinted about his change in stance yesterday. The initial market reaction was to buy GBPUSD and sell EURGBP - we would favour playing this change by selling EURGBP further.
The recent uptick in UK CPI was one of the main drivers behind the change in stance. In Q1, inflation averaged at 3.5% instead of the MPC forecast of 3.35%, and it is clear that the hawks inside the BoE are now having an increasing influence. Our UK economics team notes that the underlying drivers of inflation, such as money growth and wages, are expanding at a modest rate and inflation has very frequently overshot the BoE's forecast in the past. Overall, the minutes support our view that the BOE will not expand the QE programme in May.
In a separate interview, the BoE's Tucker suggested that the Bank is getting worried about inflation, a theme which was also clearly reflected in the meeting minutes.
AUD
Prime Minister Gillard looked ahead to the upcoming budget, noting that fiscal restraint on the part of the government would make room for the RBA to cut rates. AUD did not react.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
19 April 2012 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
WORLD
Trading was subdued in Asia overnight given a light economic data calendar, but investor attention is noticeably turning to what next week's two policy meetings will bring. The FOMC and the BoJ policy decisions are likely to set the tone for USDJPY for months to come, and USDJPY is already creeping higher in anticipation. BoJ Governor Shirakawa fanned expectations overnight by saying he is 'committed' to continued monetary easing in order to meet the 1% inflation goal. He also sounded quite downbeat about the general economic outlook, noting Japan has "stagnated" and that growth in developed economies elsewhere is "anemic". There was nothing in these remarks to dampen our expectations of further easing at the next policy meeting on April 27.
The Bank of Canada has other intentions - it backed up Tuesday's warning that "some modest withdrawal of the present considerable monetary policy stimulus may become appropriate" with an upgraded 2012 GDP forecast of 2.4% (versus 2.0% previously) in its Monetary Policy Report. This underpins our generally bullish Canadian dollar view and three-month USDCAD target of 0.98. Together with the Bank of England turning considerably less dovish while the RBA signals a possible upcoming rate cut, central bank opinion has not been so diverse in quite some time.
Today, the euro is likely to be highly sensitive to any surprise emerging from today's sovereign bond auction in Spain. Our rates strategy colleagues think the small amount (EUR 1.5 bn-2.5 bn) of bonds being sold is likely to be comfortably absorbed by the market.
EUR
IMF Managing Director Lagarde said that member countries have so far committed $316 bn in additional lending capacity to the fund. We expect further news over the coming days as the Spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank come to an end.
Italy has followed Spain in pushing back its balanced budget goal, as it now expects a deficit of 0.5% for 2013 against a previous estimate of 0.1%. Prime Minister Monti announced that the economy is likely to shrink by 1.2% in 2012, far more than government's earlier forecast of -0.4%.
In its Global Financial Stability Report, IMF noted that European banks could shrink their balance sheets by $2.6 trn over the next 18 months, with the bulk of the deleveraging happening through the sale of non-core assets while credit supply drops by 1.7%. This will likely reawaken investor discussion about how repatriation flows from the sale of overseas subsidiaries could lend the euro some support, or at least result in a more gradual decline than would otherwise be the case.
Non-performing loans as a proportion of total lending in Spain jumped to 8.16% in February - the highest level since 1994, and up from 7.91% in January and less than 1% in 2007.
JPY
BoJ Governor Shirakawa said he is 'committed' to continued monetary easing to meet the 1% inflation goal. He also sounded quite downbeat about the general economic outlook, noting Japan has "stagnated" and that growth in developed economies elsewhere is "anemic". There was nothing in these remarks to dampen our expectations of further easing at the next policy meeting on April 27.
Japan's trade deficit continued into March. Imports grew faster than exports. Interestingly, exports to the US rose +23.9% y/y while exports bound for Europe fell -9.7% y/y. This is further evidence of a strengthening US recovery while Europe struggles under the weight of fiscal consolidation, and it supports our 1.25 3m forecast on EURUSD.
GBP
The April BoE minutes revealed that the MPC voted 8-1 to keep QE unchanged and 9-0 for an unchanged policy rate. Adam Posen , the staunch dove, changed his vote and voted in line with the majority. The sole voter for further QE was David Miles, who said that his was a "fine decision". This marks an important turnaround inside the BoE, with Posen having hinted about his change in stance yesterday. The initial market reaction was to buy GBPUSD and sell EURGBP - we would favour playing this change by selling EURGBP further.
The recent uptick in UK CPI was one of the main drivers behind the change in stance. In Q1, inflation averaged at 3.5% instead of the MPC forecast of 3.35%, and it is clear that the hawks inside the BoE are now having an increasing influence. Our UK economics team notes that the underlying drivers of inflation, such as money growth and wages, are expanding at a modest rate and inflation has very frequently overshot the BoE's forecast in the past. Overall, the minutes support our view that the BOE will not expand the QE programme in May.
In a separate interview, the BoE's Tucker suggested that the Bank is getting worried about inflation, a theme which was also clearly reflected in the meeting minutes.
AUD
Prime Minister Gillard looked ahead to the upcoming budget, noting that fiscal restraint on the part of the government would make room for the RBA to cut rates. AUD did not react.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Wednesday, April 18, 2012
18th of April 2012 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
18 April 2012 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD BEARISH Support is at 1.2974/54 area, a break through which would signal extension of weakness. Resistance is at 1.3213.
USDJPY NEUTRAL The recovery targets resistance at 81.78, a break above would open 82.24. Key support area is at 80.30/10.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.5986 ahead of 1.6063, while a pull back through 1.5801 would resume weakness.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Initial resistance is at 0.9252, a move above would open 0.9335. Support lies at 0.9092 ahead of 0.9002.
AUDUSD BEARISH Resistance at 1.0471 is intact. Near-term support lies at 1.0299 ahead of 1.0226.
USDCAD BEARISH Focus is back on support at 0.9842, a break here would be a bearish development and open the way towards 0.9766. Resistance is at 1.0053.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.2049 ahead of 1.2070, while support lies at 1.2000.
EURGBP BEARISH Support focus is on 0.8210, a break below would open 0.8142. Resistance is at 0.8279.
EURJPY NEUTRAL The cross has resistance at 107.47 ahead of 108.04. Support is at 104.63/24 area.
SCHEDULE
Please visit our Economic Calendar for a for a schedule of market news and events: http://www.fibosignals.com/5585/calendar.html.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
18 April 2012 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD BEARISH Support is at 1.2974/54 area, a break through which would signal extension of weakness. Resistance is at 1.3213.
USDJPY NEUTRAL The recovery targets resistance at 81.78, a break above would open 82.24. Key support area is at 80.30/10.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.5986 ahead of 1.6063, while a pull back through 1.5801 would resume weakness.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Initial resistance is at 0.9252, a move above would open 0.9335. Support lies at 0.9092 ahead of 0.9002.
AUDUSD BEARISH Resistance at 1.0471 is intact. Near-term support lies at 1.0299 ahead of 1.0226.
USDCAD BEARISH Focus is back on support at 0.9842, a break here would be a bearish development and open the way towards 0.9766. Resistance is at 1.0053.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.2049 ahead of 1.2070, while support lies at 1.2000.
EURGBP BEARISH Support focus is on 0.8210, a break below would open 0.8142. Resistance is at 0.8279.
EURJPY NEUTRAL The cross has resistance at 107.47 ahead of 108.04. Support is at 104.63/24 area.
SCHEDULE
Please visit our Economic Calendar for a for a schedule of market news and events: http://www.fibosignals.com/5585/calendar.html.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)