DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
12 March 2012 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD BEARISH Break below 1.3096 has opened 1.2974, the Feb. 16 key low, a move below which would signal scope for deeper pull back. Resistance is at 1.3291.
USDJPY BULLISH Focus is now on 82.79, a break here would open 83.13 next. Support lies at 81.87.
GBPUSD BEARISH Decline through 1.5697 has turned the model bearish and opened 1.5645 ahead of 1.5614. Resistance is at 1.5884.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Initial support lies at 0.9072 ahead of 0.9022. Key resistances are at 0.9300 and 0.9342.
AUDUSD BEARISH Pressure is on 1.0509, a move below which would open 1.0476. Resistance is at 1.0691.
USDCAD BEARISH Support lies at 0.9873 ahead of 0.9842, the year-to-date low. Resistance is at 0.9991.
EURCHF NEUTRAL The cross continues to trade choppy in a narrow range. Resistance is at 1.2084 and support is at 1.2040.
EURGBP BULLISH Resistance is at 0.8410; a recovery through this would signal extension of gains towards 0.8433. Support lies at 0.8343.
EURJPY BULLISH A break above 108.74 would open 109.93, the year-to-date high. Support is at 106.60.
SCHEDULE
Please visit our Economic Calendar for a for a schedule of market news and events: http://www.fibosignals.com/5585/calendar.html.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
+++ market trends - news - analysis - strategies and more! +++
Monday, March 12, 2012
12th of March 2012 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
12 March 2012 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
WORLD
The dollar-positive afterglow from Friday's strong US payrolls report lasted into the Asia session on Monday. EURUSD is now firmly back on the 1.30 handle, and both AUD and NZD are struggling. This is partly due to the absence of overnight drivers given the empty calendar. But there are forces at work too - it is becoming increasingly clear that the psychology around the US dollar is changing. The dollar no longer strengthens only in the presence of risk aversion and now stronger US economic data is just as likely to do the trick. This change in character paves the way for further dollar gains over the coming months as market expectations for further Fed easing recede.
Friday's IMM positioning data shows that a longer term structural change seems to be taking hold: net dollar positioning has now been in long territory for 25 consecutive weeks - a pattern we have not witnessed since 1999. USDJPY did slip a little overnight but only after hitting fresh ten-month highs on Friday which confirm that the month-old uptrend is still very much intact. The headline payrolls number itself came in at +227k (cons. 210k) in February, while January's and December's data were revised up by a net 61k jobs. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.3% - in line with expectations despite a 476k increase in the labour force.
Four policy meetings lie ahead this week: we expect no change in the Fed's policy stance on Tuesday, and nothing material from the BoJ either. Norges bank meets on Wednesday and, although we look for no change to the policy rate, Governor Olsen is not likely to waste an opportunity to try to talk down NOK. On Thursday, the SNB is very likely to keep the EURCHF floor unchanged at 1.20. Eurozone finance ministers and the IMF will likely need to sign off on the entire second Greek bailout plan this week - the finance ministers meet today, and the IMF executive board on Thursday.
EUR
ISDA formally declared a credit event in Greece on Friday. There was no immediate currency reaction even though the news came an hour before FX markets closed. An auction will be held on March 19 to determine how much holders of CDS contracts will be paid.
ISDA's CEO Pickel, said he does not expect payments to CDS holders to be a disruptive market event. He said the Greek default is just the latest of many of such events, and that the process for settling contracts has 'has worked well' previously. Pickel noted that 93% of the CDS contracts are already backed by collateral, and so suggested that the risk of a failure to pay is very small. He predicted that payouts will be even smaller than the $3.2 bn in net CDS exposure outstanding, given that a small recovery value should be expected.
Austria's Finance Minister Fekter said losses to Austrian banks arising from the triggering of Greek CDS can be 'accommodated'.
Politicians and policymakers across Europe seemed generally pleased with Friday's developments in Greece. A German Government spokesperson said German Chancellor Merkel was 'encouraged' by the result of the swap deal. France's President Sarkozy said the Greek problem has now been solved and said a page has been turned in the financial crisis. Germany's Finance Minister Schaueble said Greece is now 'on the road to recovery'. ECB Governing Council member Nowotny declared the restructuring 'a clear success', but apparently made no reference to the ECB's long-standing public opposition to a sovereign credit event occurring inside the Eurozone.
Eurozone finance ministers are due to meet again in person on Monday to discuss remaining issues around the release of funds for Greece from the second bailout fund.
IMF Managing Director Lagarde said she will recommend that the IMF Executive Board approves a four-year EUR 28 bn contribution to Greece's second rescue. The Board is tentatively due to meet on Wednesday to formally decide. Of the proposed EUR 28 bn, EUR 10 bn has been carried over unused from the original Greece rescue. Lagarde said the 'scale and length of the Fund's support is a reflection of our determination to remain engaged'.
Greece has not yet set a date for the upcoming general election. Late on Friday, government spokesman Kapsis said that the general election would happen on April 29 at the earliest, but could be delayed until May..
JPY
Ex-Finance Minister Fujii (who held the post until January 2010) said the yen's strength is odd given Japan's 'extremely precarious' public finances.
The BoJ are due to meet again on March 12-13 but local press reports suggest the only policy manoeuvre will be a one-year extension of the special JPY 3.5 trn lending facility designed to encourage financial institutions to lend to growth industries. The programme is due to end this month, and roughly JPY 400 bn remains untapped. Of greater significance is the risk of an expansion, extension and/or amendment of the BoJ's Asset Purchase Programme next month, perhaps in conjunction with the publication of the Outlook Report on April 27.
CHF
The Swiss government said it would stick to the current schedule for appointments to the SNB Board. As such, the third board member and next President of the SNB will be elected by the Federal Council in April.
AUD
China's February trade data released over the weekend showed imports up sharply by +39.6% y/y (cons. +31.8%). Total iron ore and concentrates imported were up 5.7% y/y by volume. Overall imports from Australia were up +8.0% y/y.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
12 March 2012 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
WORLD
The dollar-positive afterglow from Friday's strong US payrolls report lasted into the Asia session on Monday. EURUSD is now firmly back on the 1.30 handle, and both AUD and NZD are struggling. This is partly due to the absence of overnight drivers given the empty calendar. But there are forces at work too - it is becoming increasingly clear that the psychology around the US dollar is changing. The dollar no longer strengthens only in the presence of risk aversion and now stronger US economic data is just as likely to do the trick. This change in character paves the way for further dollar gains over the coming months as market expectations for further Fed easing recede.
Friday's IMM positioning data shows that a longer term structural change seems to be taking hold: net dollar positioning has now been in long territory for 25 consecutive weeks - a pattern we have not witnessed since 1999. USDJPY did slip a little overnight but only after hitting fresh ten-month highs on Friday which confirm that the month-old uptrend is still very much intact. The headline payrolls number itself came in at +227k (cons. 210k) in February, while January's and December's data were revised up by a net 61k jobs. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.3% - in line with expectations despite a 476k increase in the labour force.
Four policy meetings lie ahead this week: we expect no change in the Fed's policy stance on Tuesday, and nothing material from the BoJ either. Norges bank meets on Wednesday and, although we look for no change to the policy rate, Governor Olsen is not likely to waste an opportunity to try to talk down NOK. On Thursday, the SNB is very likely to keep the EURCHF floor unchanged at 1.20. Eurozone finance ministers and the IMF will likely need to sign off on the entire second Greek bailout plan this week - the finance ministers meet today, and the IMF executive board on Thursday.
EUR
ISDA formally declared a credit event in Greece on Friday. There was no immediate currency reaction even though the news came an hour before FX markets closed. An auction will be held on March 19 to determine how much holders of CDS contracts will be paid.
ISDA's CEO Pickel, said he does not expect payments to CDS holders to be a disruptive market event. He said the Greek default is just the latest of many of such events, and that the process for settling contracts has 'has worked well' previously. Pickel noted that 93% of the CDS contracts are already backed by collateral, and so suggested that the risk of a failure to pay is very small. He predicted that payouts will be even smaller than the $3.2 bn in net CDS exposure outstanding, given that a small recovery value should be expected.
Austria's Finance Minister Fekter said losses to Austrian banks arising from the triggering of Greek CDS can be 'accommodated'.
Politicians and policymakers across Europe seemed generally pleased with Friday's developments in Greece. A German Government spokesperson said German Chancellor Merkel was 'encouraged' by the result of the swap deal. France's President Sarkozy said the Greek problem has now been solved and said a page has been turned in the financial crisis. Germany's Finance Minister Schaueble said Greece is now 'on the road to recovery'. ECB Governing Council member Nowotny declared the restructuring 'a clear success', but apparently made no reference to the ECB's long-standing public opposition to a sovereign credit event occurring inside the Eurozone.
Eurozone finance ministers are due to meet again in person on Monday to discuss remaining issues around the release of funds for Greece from the second bailout fund.
IMF Managing Director Lagarde said she will recommend that the IMF Executive Board approves a four-year EUR 28 bn contribution to Greece's second rescue. The Board is tentatively due to meet on Wednesday to formally decide. Of the proposed EUR 28 bn, EUR 10 bn has been carried over unused from the original Greece rescue. Lagarde said the 'scale and length of the Fund's support is a reflection of our determination to remain engaged'.
Greece has not yet set a date for the upcoming general election. Late on Friday, government spokesman Kapsis said that the general election would happen on April 29 at the earliest, but could be delayed until May..
JPY
Ex-Finance Minister Fujii (who held the post until January 2010) said the yen's strength is odd given Japan's 'extremely precarious' public finances.
The BoJ are due to meet again on March 12-13 but local press reports suggest the only policy manoeuvre will be a one-year extension of the special JPY 3.5 trn lending facility designed to encourage financial institutions to lend to growth industries. The programme is due to end this month, and roughly JPY 400 bn remains untapped. Of greater significance is the risk of an expansion, extension and/or amendment of the BoJ's Asset Purchase Programme next month, perhaps in conjunction with the publication of the Outlook Report on April 27.
CHF
The Swiss government said it would stick to the current schedule for appointments to the SNB Board. As such, the third board member and next President of the SNB will be elected by the Federal Council in April.
AUD
China's February trade data released over the weekend showed imports up sharply by +39.6% y/y (cons. +31.8%). Total iron ore and concentrates imported were up 5.7% y/y by volume. Overall imports from Australia were up +8.0% y/y.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Thursday, March 08, 2012
8th of March 2012 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
8 March 2012 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD BEARISH Decline through 1.3056 would expose 1.2974. Resistance is at 1.3241.
USDJPY BULLISH Clearance of 81.59 would open 81.87, the month-to-date high. Support lies at 80.59.
GBPUSD BULLISH Our focus remains on upside with resistances at 1.5790 and 1.5883. Support lies at 1.5697.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is now at 0.9213 ahead of 0.9300, the February rejection high. Support lies at 0.9106 ahead of 0.9022.
AUDUSD NEUTRAL Support is at 1.0509 ahead of 1.0476. Resistance is at 1.0691 ahead of 1.0744.
USDCAD BEARISH As long as the resistance at 1.0052 holds we expect the pair to move below 0.9937 to open 0.9886.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.2084 and support is at 1.2041.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Support lies at 0.8314, the trendline support drawn off the Jan. 9 low, ahead of 0.8265. Resistance is at 0.8383 ahead of 0.8410.
EURJPY BULLISH Break above 107.02 would open 108.04 ahead of 108.74. Support is at 105.65.
SCHEDULE
Please visit our Economic Calendar for a for a schedule of market news and events: http://www.fibosignals.com/5585/calendar.html.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
8 March 2012 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD BEARISH Decline through 1.3056 would expose 1.2974. Resistance is at 1.3241.
USDJPY BULLISH Clearance of 81.59 would open 81.87, the month-to-date high. Support lies at 80.59.
GBPUSD BULLISH Our focus remains on upside with resistances at 1.5790 and 1.5883. Support lies at 1.5697.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is now at 0.9213 ahead of 0.9300, the February rejection high. Support lies at 0.9106 ahead of 0.9022.
AUDUSD NEUTRAL Support is at 1.0509 ahead of 1.0476. Resistance is at 1.0691 ahead of 1.0744.
USDCAD BEARISH As long as the resistance at 1.0052 holds we expect the pair to move below 0.9937 to open 0.9886.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.2084 and support is at 1.2041.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Support lies at 0.8314, the trendline support drawn off the Jan. 9 low, ahead of 0.8265. Resistance is at 0.8383 ahead of 0.8410.
EURJPY BULLISH Break above 107.02 would open 108.04 ahead of 108.74. Support is at 105.65.
SCHEDULE
Please visit our Economic Calendar for a for a schedule of market news and events: http://www.fibosignals.com/5585/calendar.html.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
8th of March 2012 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
8 March 2012 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
WORLD
For the second day running, Australian dollar bulls were temporarily knocked back by weaker than expected domestic data, with a 15.4k decline in employment and an uptick in the unemployment rate to 5.2% in February, coming on the heels of weak Q4 GDP data yesterday. The Australian dollar recovered its poise as risk sentiment improved amid the rise in the major equity indices. USDJPY remained well supported in Asia, aided by confirmation of a current account deficit for January (non-seasonally adjusted), the first since January 2009 and the deepest on record. To be sure, this does not herald a shift to a sustained current account deficit position yet, as exports were distorted by the Chinese New Year and the large income surplus will continue to provide a buffer against the trade deficit.
However, today's figures serve reminder of Japan's increased sensitivity to volume and price spikes for imported energy that could progressively eat into the current account balance and heighten 'twin deficit' fears - a worrisome prospect for the yen. MoF data released today showed that the Japanese remained net buyers of foreign bonds last week to the tune of Y276 bn, following the hefty Y1.4 trn tally recorded the previous week. Net foreign bond purchases have been chalked up in 8 of the past 9 weeks, underlining our view that repatriation will not be a major yen-supportive factor. The market spotlight now shifts to the upcoming policy decisions from the BoE, ECB and Bank of Canada. In line with the consensus, our economists expect 'no change' verdicts from all three central banks. Beyond the ECB decision, euro risks will hinge heavily on the headlines out of Greece, in the run-up to the 2000 GMT PSI deadline for bondholders to confirm their involvement. It still looks as if the CACs will be invoked and a credit event will be triggered by early next week, an outcome that markets should be well prepared for at this stage. Overnight ranges for EURUSD and USDJPY were 1.3135-1.3162 and 81.08-81.36, respectively.
EUR
Germany's Finance Minister Schaeuble said he discussed very openly with Greece's finance minister whether it would be better for Greece to leave the euro, but that Greek authorities were 100% committed to remaining within it.
Ahead of the deadline for bondholders to declare their involvement in Greece's debt restructuring, Greek media said participation levels are approaching 77%. We note that consent from only two-thirds of participants (who express a preference) would open the door for the Greek authorities to actually invoke the CAC clauses - likely triggering a credit event by early next week. A Greek government official said that six Greek pension funds with holdings of EUR3.4 bn of Greek sovereign debt continue to oppose the deal.
Schaeuble said a teleconference of Eurozone finance ministers has been scheduled for 1300 GMT on Friday.
JPY
Weekly MoF statistics revealed that cumulative net Japanese purchases of foreign bonds have amounted to Y5.5 trn in the current quarter to date, tempering any lingering fears of repatriation ahead of the book closing on March 31. Separate monthly data indicated that the net foreign bond investment tally for Japanese insurers in February was the highest since October 2010 - another sign of the greater overseas diversification we expect to see from yield-hungry Japanese institutions into the new fiscal year. Please refer to our March 1 FX Comment ("Repatriation Games") for a more detailed analysis of the drivers underpinning our bullish USDJPY call.
The upward revision to Japan's Q4 2011 GDP was well telegraphed and had little FX impact. The headline print was 'less negative' at -0.2% q/q compared to the first preliminary estimate of -0.6% q/q, thanks in large part to the improvement in private capex flagged by the MoF's Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry. Real GDP growth is expected to turn positive from Q1 2012, helped by reconstruction demand.
AUD
The unemployment rate ticked up in February to 5.2%, after unexpectedly falling in January to 5.1% - though it has been holding around 5.25% since Q3 2011. The participation rate ticked down to 65.2% from 65.3%, matching the lowest since mid-2007. Employment was weaker than expected, retracing by 15k m/m in February, albeit after a 46k m/m rebound in January. The trend of jobs growth remains weak, with the y/y pace moderating to 0.2% from 0.3%.
Together with the weaker than expected Q4 2011 GDP result (0.4% q/q), slack employment conditions should open the door for an RBA rate cut, if the rise in the jobless rate continues. While our Australian economics team (and the RBA) continue to expect a modest increase in the unemployment rate towards 5.5%, it has been broadly steady for a number of months around 5.25%. With leading indicators suggesting a better trend in jobs growth ahead, we continue to expect the RBA to hold rates.
NZD
The RBNZ left the policy rate unchanged at 2.5%, with Governor Bollard noting that a strong currency undermines GDP growth - and, if the kiwi's recent gains are sustained, the need for rate hikes would be reduced.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
8 March 2012 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
WORLD
For the second day running, Australian dollar bulls were temporarily knocked back by weaker than expected domestic data, with a 15.4k decline in employment and an uptick in the unemployment rate to 5.2% in February, coming on the heels of weak Q4 GDP data yesterday. The Australian dollar recovered its poise as risk sentiment improved amid the rise in the major equity indices. USDJPY remained well supported in Asia, aided by confirmation of a current account deficit for January (non-seasonally adjusted), the first since January 2009 and the deepest on record. To be sure, this does not herald a shift to a sustained current account deficit position yet, as exports were distorted by the Chinese New Year and the large income surplus will continue to provide a buffer against the trade deficit.
However, today's figures serve reminder of Japan's increased sensitivity to volume and price spikes for imported energy that could progressively eat into the current account balance and heighten 'twin deficit' fears - a worrisome prospect for the yen. MoF data released today showed that the Japanese remained net buyers of foreign bonds last week to the tune of Y276 bn, following the hefty Y1.4 trn tally recorded the previous week. Net foreign bond purchases have been chalked up in 8 of the past 9 weeks, underlining our view that repatriation will not be a major yen-supportive factor. The market spotlight now shifts to the upcoming policy decisions from the BoE, ECB and Bank of Canada. In line with the consensus, our economists expect 'no change' verdicts from all three central banks. Beyond the ECB decision, euro risks will hinge heavily on the headlines out of Greece, in the run-up to the 2000 GMT PSI deadline for bondholders to confirm their involvement. It still looks as if the CACs will be invoked and a credit event will be triggered by early next week, an outcome that markets should be well prepared for at this stage. Overnight ranges for EURUSD and USDJPY were 1.3135-1.3162 and 81.08-81.36, respectively.
EUR
Germany's Finance Minister Schaeuble said he discussed very openly with Greece's finance minister whether it would be better for Greece to leave the euro, but that Greek authorities were 100% committed to remaining within it.
Ahead of the deadline for bondholders to declare their involvement in Greece's debt restructuring, Greek media said participation levels are approaching 77%. We note that consent from only two-thirds of participants (who express a preference) would open the door for the Greek authorities to actually invoke the CAC clauses - likely triggering a credit event by early next week. A Greek government official said that six Greek pension funds with holdings of EUR3.4 bn of Greek sovereign debt continue to oppose the deal.
Schaeuble said a teleconference of Eurozone finance ministers has been scheduled for 1300 GMT on Friday.
JPY
Weekly MoF statistics revealed that cumulative net Japanese purchases of foreign bonds have amounted to Y5.5 trn in the current quarter to date, tempering any lingering fears of repatriation ahead of the book closing on March 31. Separate monthly data indicated that the net foreign bond investment tally for Japanese insurers in February was the highest since October 2010 - another sign of the greater overseas diversification we expect to see from yield-hungry Japanese institutions into the new fiscal year. Please refer to our March 1 FX Comment ("Repatriation Games") for a more detailed analysis of the drivers underpinning our bullish USDJPY call.
The upward revision to Japan's Q4 2011 GDP was well telegraphed and had little FX impact. The headline print was 'less negative' at -0.2% q/q compared to the first preliminary estimate of -0.6% q/q, thanks in large part to the improvement in private capex flagged by the MoF's Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry. Real GDP growth is expected to turn positive from Q1 2012, helped by reconstruction demand.
AUD
The unemployment rate ticked up in February to 5.2%, after unexpectedly falling in January to 5.1% - though it has been holding around 5.25% since Q3 2011. The participation rate ticked down to 65.2% from 65.3%, matching the lowest since mid-2007. Employment was weaker than expected, retracing by 15k m/m in February, albeit after a 46k m/m rebound in January. The trend of jobs growth remains weak, with the y/y pace moderating to 0.2% from 0.3%.
Together with the weaker than expected Q4 2011 GDP result (0.4% q/q), slack employment conditions should open the door for an RBA rate cut, if the rise in the jobless rate continues. While our Australian economics team (and the RBA) continue to expect a modest increase in the unemployment rate towards 5.5%, it has been broadly steady for a number of months around 5.25%. With leading indicators suggesting a better trend in jobs growth ahead, we continue to expect the RBA to hold rates.
NZD
The RBNZ left the policy rate unchanged at 2.5%, with Governor Bollard noting that a strong currency undermines GDP growth - and, if the kiwi's recent gains are sustained, the need for rate hikes would be reduced.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Wednesday, March 07, 2012
7th of March 2012 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
7 March 2012 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD BEARISH Decline through 1.3056 would expose 1.2974. Resistance is at 1.3241.
USDJPY BULLISH We view the recent sell-off as correction; resistance is at 81.59, a move above which would expose 81.87. Support lies at 80.24, a prior high.
GBPUSD BULLISH Our focus remains on upside with resistances at 1.5883 and 1.5993, the year-to-date high. Key support lies at 1.5645.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is now at 0.9213 ahead of 0.9300, the February rejection high. Support lies at 0.9106 ahead of 0.9022.
AUDUSD NEUTRAL Support is at 1.0476 ahead of 1.0428. Resistance is at 1.0598 ahead of 1.0691.
USDCAD BEARISH Pair is approaching 1.0052; as long as this resistance holds our outlook would remain bearish. Supports are at 0.9937 and 0.9886.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.2084 and support is at 1.2041.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Support lies at 0.8311, the trendline support drawn off the Jan. 9 low, ahead of 0.8265. Resistance is at 0.8383 ahead of 0.8410.
EURJPY BULLISH Resistances are at 108.04 and 108.74 next. Support is at 105.44.
SCHEDULE
Please visit our Economic Calendar for a for a schedule of market news and events: http://www.fibosignals.com/5585/calendar.html.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
7 March 2012 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD BEARISH Decline through 1.3056 would expose 1.2974. Resistance is at 1.3241.
USDJPY BULLISH We view the recent sell-off as correction; resistance is at 81.59, a move above which would expose 81.87. Support lies at 80.24, a prior high.
GBPUSD BULLISH Our focus remains on upside with resistances at 1.5883 and 1.5993, the year-to-date high. Key support lies at 1.5645.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is now at 0.9213 ahead of 0.9300, the February rejection high. Support lies at 0.9106 ahead of 0.9022.
AUDUSD NEUTRAL Support is at 1.0476 ahead of 1.0428. Resistance is at 1.0598 ahead of 1.0691.
USDCAD BEARISH Pair is approaching 1.0052; as long as this resistance holds our outlook would remain bearish. Supports are at 0.9937 and 0.9886.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.2084 and support is at 1.2041.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Support lies at 0.8311, the trendline support drawn off the Jan. 9 low, ahead of 0.8265. Resistance is at 0.8383 ahead of 0.8410.
EURJPY BULLISH Resistances are at 108.04 and 108.74 next. Support is at 105.44.
SCHEDULE
Please visit our Economic Calendar for a for a schedule of market news and events: http://www.fibosignals.com/5585/calendar.html.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)