10th of November 2010 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview

DAILY Fundamental Forex Market Overview
10 November 2010 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday

____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________


FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT

USD

The dollar strengthened further against the euro during the Asia session amid intensifying concern over ongoing debt problems in Ireland. Gains were also made against the NZD but this was largely due to news that kiwi fruit imports to the US have been halted, rather than indicating a broader risk-off move spreading from the Eurozone. EURUSD traded 1.3837-1.3950, USDJPY 80.74-81.25. Asian and US equities were slightly weaker. The Fed's October Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey showed that banks continue to ease lending standards in many categories.

Banks also reported falling demand by both large and small businesses for some loan categories. It appears, however, that there was a bit of a turnaround in mortgage standards, with 9% of banks, on net, tightening on prime mortgages, versus 5% easing in the prior quarter. St. Louis Fed President Bullard, a current FOMC voter, said that the benefits of further quantitative easing will outweigh the costs and that the full effect of the further QE will be felt in 6 months. Dallas Fed President Fisher, who is a voter in 2011, noted that QE2 may be the "wrong medicine" and that it was "risky business." Echoing the tone in his WSJ op-ed, Fed Governor Warsh spoke and said that asset purchases may fail to benefit the economy and that expanding the Fed's balance sheet "was not a free option”.

EUR

Rising credit spreads on Irish debt have started to weigh on the euro. The Irish government has presented a plan, which intends to introduce austerity measures totaling EUR6 bn for 2011. EU Commissioner Rehn and Irish Finance Minister Lenihan held a press conference at which Rehn endorsed the austerity measures for 2011. Rehn also said Ireland has not requested financial backstops and that it would benefit Ireland if there was broad cross-party support for the budget measures. Seeking to distance Greece from the situation in Ireland, Greece's Finance Minister Papaconstantinou said that "Greece is not Ireland" given that Greece "doesn't have banking stability problems".

The ECB settled €711 mn worth of Eurozone bond purchases last week, after a three-week absence from the market.

German data was mixed, with slight falls in industrial production accompanying some strong trade data. German exports grew by +3.0% in September versus expectations of +1.5%, suggesting that economic growth and macro fundamentals remain strong in Europe's largest economy. A larger-than-anticipated decline in imports of 1.5% helped widen the trade balance to the largest level in nearly two years, providing further evidence that Germany will remain hostile to US Treasury Secretary Geithner's current account target proposal, heading into the G20 Summit on Wednesday. Industrial production for September surprisingly fell by 0.8% m/m (vs. consensus of +0.4%) and increased 7.9% y/y (vs. consensus of 9.5%).

GBP

The RICS house price balance was much worse than expected, providing further evidence of an acceleration in UK house price declines. The reading was -49% in October (cons. -39%, prev. -36%).

AUD

Treasurer Swan said that the strong AUD does have a "significant impact" on government revenue, which is very much in tune with yesterday's comments by Prime Minister Gillard. However, he declined to offer a view on the future direction of the currency.

A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA

Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com

DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.

9th of November 2010 - Technical Forex Market Overview

DAILY Technical Forex Market Overview
9 November 2010 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday

_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________


TECHNICAL DATA

USDCAD pressure on 0.9981.

EURUSD NEUTRAL While support at 1.3698 holds, expect gains to target 1.4373 ahead of 1.4579.

USDJPY BEARISH Stalled above 79.75; little support below this till 77.91. Resistance at 81.99.

GBPUSD BULLISH Momentum is positive; expect recovery towards 1.6379 with scope for 1.6458 next. Support comes in at 1.5961 ahead of 1.5651.

USDCHF BEARISH Break below 0.9463 would open up the way towards 0.9225. Upside capped at 0.9972.

AUDUSD BULLISH Upside pressure found resistance at 1.0183 ahead of 1.0222. Support at 0.9891 ahead of 0.9542 reaction low.

USDCAD BEARISH Bearish pressure on 0.9981; a break here would expose 0.9820 next. Resistance at 1.0156.

EURCHF NEUTRAL 1.3834 and 1.3265 mark the near-term directional triggers.

EURGBP BEARISH Next support below 0.8542 lies at 0.8463. Resistance at 0.8692 ahead of 0.8818.

EURJPY NEUTRAL While 115.68 continues to cap the upside, support lies at 111.53 ahead of 107.73.

SCHEDULE

Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.

A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA

Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com

DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.

9th of November 2010 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview

DAILY Fundamental Forex Market Overview
9 November 2010 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday

____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________


FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT

USD

The dollar strengthened further against the euro during the Asia session amid intensifying concern over ongoing debt problems in Ireland. Gains were also made against the NZD but this was largely due to news that kiwi fruit imports to the US have been halted, rather than indicating a broader risk-off move spreading from the Eurozone. EURUSD traded 1.3837-1.3950, USDJPY 80.74-81.25. Asian and US equities were slightly weaker. The Fed's October Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey showed that banks continue to ease lending standards in many categories.

Banks also reported falling demand by both large and small businesses for some loan categories. It appears, however, that there was a bit of a turnaround in mortgage standards, with 9% of banks, on net, tightening on prime mortgages, versus 5% easing in the prior quarter. St. Louis Fed President Bullard, a current FOMC voter, said that the benefits of further quantitative easing will outweigh the costs and that the full effect of the further QE will be felt in 6 months. Dallas Fed President Fisher, who is a voter in 2011, noted that QE2 may be the "wrong medicine" and that it was "risky business." Echoing the tone in his WSJ op-ed, Fed Governor Warsh spoke and said that asset purchases may fail to benefit the economy and that expanding the Fed's balance sheet "was not a free option”.

EUR

Rising credit spreads on Irish debt have started to weigh on the euro. The Irish government has presented a plan, which intends to introduce austerity measures totaling EUR6 bn for 2011. EU Commissioner Rehn and Irish Finance Minister Lenihan held a press conference at which Rehn endorsed the austerity measures for 2011. Rehn also said Ireland has not requested financial backstops and that it would benefit Ireland if there was broad cross-party support for the budget measures. Seeking to distance Greece from the situation in Ireland, Greece's Finance Minister Papaconstantinou said that "Greece is not Ireland" given that Greece "doesn't have banking stability problems".

The ECB settled €711 mn worth of Eurozone bond purchases last week, after a three-week absence from the market.

German data was mixed, with slight falls in industrial production accompanying some strong trade data. German exports grew by +3.0% in September versus expectations of +1.5%, suggesting that economic growth and macro fundamentals remain strong in Europe's largest economy. A larger-than-anticipated decline in imports of 1.5% helped widen the trade balance to the largest level in nearly two years, providing further evidence that Germany will remain hostile to US Treasury Secretary Geithner's current account target proposal, heading into the G20 Summit on Wednesday. Industrial production for September surprisingly fell by 0.8% m/m (vs. consensus of +0.4%) and increased 7.9% y/y (vs. consensus of 9.5%).

GBP

The RICS house price balance was much worse than expected, providing further evidence of an acceleration in UK house price declines. The reading was -49% in October (cons. -39%, prev. -36%).

AUD

Treasurer Swan said that the strong AUD does have a "significant impact" on government revenue, which is very much in tune with yesterday's comments by Prime Minister Gillard. However, he declined to offer a view on the future direction of the currency.

A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA

Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com

DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.

8th of November 2010 - Technical Forex Market Overview

DAILY Technical Forex Market Overview
8 November 2010 – 8:00 GMT
Monday

_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________


TECHNICAL DATA

EURJPY pressure on 115.68

EURUSD BULLISH Next resistance above 1.4373 lies at 1.4579. Support is at 1.3992.

USDJPY BEARISH Little support below 79.75 till 77.91. Resistance at 81.99

GBPUSD BULLISH Upside potential targets 1.6379 with scope for 1.6458 next. Support comes in at 1.6080.

USDCHF BEARISH Break below 0.9463 would open up the way towards 0.9225. Upside capped at 0.9972

AUDUSD BULLISH There is little resistance above 1.0222 till 1.1084. Support at 0.9891 ahead of 0.9542 reaction low.

USDCAD BEARISH Outlook is bearish; the pair eyes 0.9981 ahead of 0.9820. Resistance at 1.0156.

EURCHF BULLISH Resistance is at 1.3834 and support is at 1.3435

EURGBP NEUTRAL 0.8942 and 0.8652 mark the near-term directional triggers.

EURJPY BULLISH Upside pressure on 115.68; scope for 116.68 and 119.33 next. Support comes in at 112.83.

SCHEDULE

Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.

A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA

Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com

DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.

8th of November 2010 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview

DAILY Fundamental Forex Market Overview
8 November 2010 – 8:00 GMT
Monday

____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________


FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT

USD

A better than expected US payrolls report along with renewed concerns about Ireland weighed on the euro and kept the greenback supported in Asia. EURUSD traded 1.3919-1.4085 and USDJPY traded 81.14-81.44. Friday's headline October payrolls reading rose by +151k (cons. +60k), and private payrolls expanded by +159k (cons. +80k). The average work-week lengthened to 34.3 hours, and average hourly earnings rose by +0.2% m/m. The unemployment rate was steady at 9.6%. In a rare reference to the dollar, Bernanke said that "we're certainly aware that the dollar does play a special role in the global economy", and that "the best fundamentals for the dollar" will occur when the US economy is growing strongly. Treasury Secretary Geithner reaffirmed that a strong dollar is in the interests of the US, and that the US will never use its currency to gain competitive advantage. He said the flow of capital into emerging markets is fundamentally positive as it shows confidence in their growth prospects.

EUR

Initial official estimates showed Greek Prime Minister Papandreou's ruling party ahead in local elections. As such Papandreou ruled out a snap early election, which he had threatened to call should the majority of the population not stand behind his party. After the majority seems confirmed Papandreou said that "making changes is not easy. Greek people brought us to power a year ago and today confirmed that they want this change. We will continue with our task tomorrow".

Rising credit spreads on Irish debt have started to weigh on the euro. EU commissioner Rehn arrives in Ireland today to evaluate the country's budget plan. The Irish government presented a plan which intends to introduce austerity measures totaling EUR6 bn.

German industrial production for September is the only notable release due today. EU Commissioner Rehn will hold a press conference together with Irish Finance Minister Lenihan.

GBP

On Friday, Producer price inflation in the UK for October was higher than anticipated as input prices rose by +2.1% m/m and +8% y/y compared to expectations of +0.8% and +7.2%. This provides further evidence that there are underlying price pressures in the UK economy, although for the moment it appears that they are being internalized by firms as relatively weak demand means price hikes are not yet being passed on to consumers.

JPY

BoJ Deputy Governor Yamaguchi said the central bank will start buying government bonds under its outlined asset purchase scheme today. He added that downside risks to the economy need to be watched carefully and that the central bank is ready to act flexibly should the economy weaken further.

Prime Minister Kan invoked the recent G20 statement to justify Japan's Sept 15 intervention. He said the G20 agreed that rapid currency moves are not desirable and "that is why we intervened in the market once". He added that "if we face a rapid surge in the yen again, such a step may become necessary".

AUD

Prime Minister Gillard said that the strong AUD would reduce government revenue in general, and that it would especially affect revenue anticipated to flow from the proposed mining tax. Our Australia economics team still expects another 50bp of RBA tightening in H1 2011.

A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA

Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com

DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.