DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
30 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The euro stayed buoyed in Europe by Germany's passage of the EFSF upgrade. Parliamentary sources reported that the vote split was 523 for versus 85 against, with 3 abstentions. Crucially, Chancellor Merkel won the vote without relying on the opposition, contrary to fears beforehand that dissent in her party would be high. Elsewhere, the AUD, CAD and NZD risk currencies came under pressure amid directionless equity markets.
The US reports a Q2 GDP revision (UBSe 1.3%), weekly jobless claims (UBSe 415k) and pending home sales (UBSe -2.5%). The US economy and labour market remain under scrutiny following Bernanke's comments yesterday.
EUR
The euro climbed higher in European trading as markets priced-in a successful passing of the EFSF vote in the German parliament. Parliamentary sources said that vote split was overwhelmingly in favour of the changes, at 523 votes in favour versus 85 against and 3 abstentions. Crucially, Markel won the vote without relying on the opposition, fears has initially been voiced that dissent within the party would be high. CDU's Altmaier said 315 coalition lawmakers voted in favour, out of a coalition total of 331.
The German Finance Minister said that speculation over changes to the EFSF beyond EUR211 bn for German contribution is indecent and reiterated his stance that the aid payment for Greece is only possible after the troika conditions are met by Greece.
Eurozone Sept consumer confidence came in at -19.1 vs -18.9 consensus.
Finland's parliament has approved the EFSF expansion, in a vote of 103 to 66. Prime Minister Katainen said the collateral demands of the countries were still under discussion but likely to be agreed within days or weeks. However this is only one of many ratifications due, there are 8 more with Germany deciding on Thursday. Slovakia is also striving to reach a decision and Premier Radicova said a vote must be held before the October 17th leaders' summit. Delays in any country could cause more risk aversion, as Greece is already struggling to obtain approval for the next tranche of aid by October 3rd.
EU's Barroso said deeper integration of the Eurozone will allow for issuance of joint sovereign debt. It should be noted that he will have no personal say in the matter as it is up to national Governments to decide but he has been a known supporter of the policy.
The European Union proposed a financial transaction tax which would take effect in three years. There is still much division within the Union on this measure, with several non-Eurozone members opposing the move, though new statements have allowed some room for flexibility.
France has announced it would trim debt issuance next year, as a part of a deficit reduction plan. However, the country has denied that its banks need more capital, noting they can face their current situation.
GBP
The UK Debt Management Office said that overseas investors sold net GBP749 mn of gilts in August. This is the first month that holdings have been cut since March.
The BoE's Chief Economist Spencer Dale said the global economic slowdown looks more persistent now than previously. With regards to inflation he said that the UK is close to the peak now but expects large declines in the next year. He added that he is pretty sure QE would work again as a policy if the BoE decided to do more. Dale, like the majority of the MPC is moving closer towards voting for more easing, a policy which is yet to be priced into sterling, in our view.
UK M4 money supply fell 0.2% m/m and 0.6% y/y, after no change on the month and a 1.1% y/y fall in July.
JPY
Retail sales figures released overnight were disappointing as consumption contracted by 1.7% on the month in August (cons. 0.2%m/m).
A Magnitude 5.6 earthquake jolted the Fukushima prefecture in Northeast Japan but no tsunami warning was offered and there were no reports of abnormalities.
CAD
Canadian Finance Minister Flaherty said the current flight to the dollar has had an impact on the Canadian dollar. He declined to comment on a meeting held today with the BoC and the Prime Minister. He reiterated that Europe needs to 'overwhelm the debt crisis.
AUD
RBA's Broadbent said overnight that a Greek default could have indirect impact on Australia, though the RBA board is more concerned about the domestic economy's vulnerability to Europe that than banks.
NZD
New Zealand Finance Minister Bill English said overnight that the country's growth forecasts may be lower in the coming years. RBNZ Governor Bollard said he was comfortable with the official cash rate at current levels.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
+++ market trends - news - analysis - strategies and more! +++
Friday, September 30, 2011
Thursday, September 22, 2011
22nd of September 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
22 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD BEARISH Break below 1.3587 has opened support at 1.3495 ahead of 1.3428. Resistance is at 1.3787.
USDJPY BEARISH Move below 75.95, the key low, would open the psychological level of 75.00. Resistance is at 77.28.
GBPUSD BEARISH Momentum is negative; sharp fall through 1.5513 has opened the way for further losses towards 1.5407 and 1.5345. Resistance is at 1.5520.
USDCHF BULLISH Clearance of 0.9012 has opened 0.9105 ahead of 0.9200. Near-term support lies at 0.8700.
AUDUSD BEARISH Fall through 1.0126 has opened 0.9928, a move below which would expose 0.9959. Resistance is at 1.0313.
USDCAD BULLISH Rise through 1.0058 has paved the way for further gains towards 1.0179 an 1.0209. Initial support lies at 1.0052.
EURCHF BULLISH The cross has strong resistance at 1.2346/1.2403 area. Break above this would expose 1.2646. Support lies at 1.2051.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Rally through 0.8791 has turned the model neutral; the near-term directional triggers are at 0.8886 and 0.8596.
EURJPY BEARISH Decline through 103.90 has opened 102.02 ahead of psychological level of 100.00. Resistance is at 105.33.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
22 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD BEARISH Break below 1.3587 has opened support at 1.3495 ahead of 1.3428. Resistance is at 1.3787.
USDJPY BEARISH Move below 75.95, the key low, would open the psychological level of 75.00. Resistance is at 77.28.
GBPUSD BEARISH Momentum is negative; sharp fall through 1.5513 has opened the way for further losses towards 1.5407 and 1.5345. Resistance is at 1.5520.
USDCHF BULLISH Clearance of 0.9012 has opened 0.9105 ahead of 0.9200. Near-term support lies at 0.8700.
AUDUSD BEARISH Fall through 1.0126 has opened 0.9928, a move below which would expose 0.9959. Resistance is at 1.0313.
USDCAD BULLISH Rise through 1.0058 has paved the way for further gains towards 1.0179 an 1.0209. Initial support lies at 1.0052.
EURCHF BULLISH The cross has strong resistance at 1.2346/1.2403 area. Break above this would expose 1.2646. Support lies at 1.2051.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Rally through 0.8791 has turned the model neutral; the near-term directional triggers are at 0.8886 and 0.8596.
EURJPY BEARISH Decline through 103.90 has opened 102.02 ahead of psychological level of 100.00. Resistance is at 105.33.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
22nd of September 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
22 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The Fed announced Operation Twist yesterday but judging by the reaction in risk, investors were clearly positioned for something more aggressive, even though the size of the purchases was more than markets expected. The Fed announced an intention to purchase $400 bn of long-term debt, funded by selling the same amount of short term paper, by the end of June 2012. The vote was not unanimous, with Kocherlakota, Fisher and Plosser dissenting, again underscoring the level of division at the Fed. It also committed to reinvest principal payments from its holdings of Agency securities into Agency MBS. Our US economists note that the FOMC also repeated language that opens the door to further policy action, again saying that it had discussed a range of policy tools available to promote a stronger recovery "and is prepared to employ its tools as appropriate."
We retain our view that the USD will continue to rally over the medium term. The situation is very different to when QE2 was announced last year and policy easing will likely come from other central banks. NZ Q2 GDP came in at +0.1% vs expectations of 0.5%. Ahead today PMI figures are out in Europe. World leaders are also gathering in New York for the UN General Assembly, though for markets the IMF meetings later this week are far more important, with bank recapitalisations likely to top the agenda given yesterday's warnings by the fund. EURUSD traded 1.3529-1.3601 and USDJPY 76.42-76.97.
EUR
The ECB announced that it is reducing the requirements for collateral held at the bank. The ECB is now willing to accept debt that does not trade on a regulated market. Although it is widening the possibilities, it is reducing the amount of such material that can be used. Previously, eligible material from unregulated markets was allowed to make up 10% of the total collateral given to the ECB, that has now changed to 5%. The policy is likely designed to help troubled European banks.
The ECB allotted $500m to one bank in this weeks 7 day dollar tender, That figure is slightly lower than last weeks $575m but significantly below the numbers seen at the height of the crisis in 2008. With EURUSD basis swaps at current levels, increased usage of the USD swap facility is likely. The European Systemic Risk Board sees a considerable increase in risks to the EU's financial system.,
The IMF described the downside risks for the global economy as 'growing'. They advised the ECB to cut interest rates if debt tensions persist, and to keep intervening 'strongly' in debt markets. The IMF now sees global growth at 4% this year, down from 4.3% in June.
EU Commissioner Michel Barnier said that he could not rule out state support would be needed in the event of recapitalizations, though would prefer to see this happen through the private sector. State funding for banks would again put ratings of many nations into question.
The Greek government has announced it would accelerate budget cuts to ensure funding remains in place. Finance Ministers Venizelos warned that the financial sector and real economy could stop functioning without funding in place.
GBP
As expected the MPC minutes were dovish. The vote split for further asset purchases remained 8-1, with Adam Posen remaining the sole dissenter, but 'most' members said their decisions were close. Downside risks to growth and inflation were stressed and any signs of hawkish comments were removed from discussion. The BoE has clearly shifted in its stance. It was interesting to note that the possibility of changing the maturity profile of the Bank's asset portfolio was discussed. Clearly the 'operation twist' in the US has gained support elsewhere.
The BoE's Spencer Dale said that further stimulus may be needed if the economy weakens further. However, he said the need for stimulus needs to be weighed against continuing high inflation. He added that the outlook for demand has weakened 'quite materially' and said that recent data on UK unemployment is 'worrying'.
CAD
Canadian retail sales are due today, market expecting a -0.3% sequential decline in July.
Canada consumer prices rose faster than expected in August, climbing 0.3% m/m (consensus 0.1%, UBSe 0.0%). This pushed headline inflation to 3.1%. Core prices were also stronger, up 0.4% m/m, resulting in the annual rate of climbing up to 1.9%. As Carney alluded to yesterday however, rates will likely stay low for an extended period.
AUD
The RBA's Battelino said the bank is keeping an open mind' on policy. He also dismissed the current rate-cut pricing, saying market priced the same in 2003 but the cuts didn't transpire. We agree and expect AUD to stay supported versa other risk currencies as a consequence.
NZD
The RBNZ Governor Bollard said the NZD was overvalued and they are in no hurry to hike.
New Zealand Q2 GDP was weaker than expected, increasing by 0.1%q/q in the June 2011 quarter, following an upward revision of 0.9% for the March 2011 quarter. Our economists note that for monetary policy, there is nothing in the GDP data that will cause the RBNZ to want to hike earlier. Conversely, they are not convinced that the data ought to delay the RBNZ either.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
22 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The Fed announced Operation Twist yesterday but judging by the reaction in risk, investors were clearly positioned for something more aggressive, even though the size of the purchases was more than markets expected. The Fed announced an intention to purchase $400 bn of long-term debt, funded by selling the same amount of short term paper, by the end of June 2012. The vote was not unanimous, with Kocherlakota, Fisher and Plosser dissenting, again underscoring the level of division at the Fed. It also committed to reinvest principal payments from its holdings of Agency securities into Agency MBS. Our US economists note that the FOMC also repeated language that opens the door to further policy action, again saying that it had discussed a range of policy tools available to promote a stronger recovery "and is prepared to employ its tools as appropriate."
We retain our view that the USD will continue to rally over the medium term. The situation is very different to when QE2 was announced last year and policy easing will likely come from other central banks. NZ Q2 GDP came in at +0.1% vs expectations of 0.5%. Ahead today PMI figures are out in Europe. World leaders are also gathering in New York for the UN General Assembly, though for markets the IMF meetings later this week are far more important, with bank recapitalisations likely to top the agenda given yesterday's warnings by the fund. EURUSD traded 1.3529-1.3601 and USDJPY 76.42-76.97.
EUR
The ECB announced that it is reducing the requirements for collateral held at the bank. The ECB is now willing to accept debt that does not trade on a regulated market. Although it is widening the possibilities, it is reducing the amount of such material that can be used. Previously, eligible material from unregulated markets was allowed to make up 10% of the total collateral given to the ECB, that has now changed to 5%. The policy is likely designed to help troubled European banks.
The ECB allotted $500m to one bank in this weeks 7 day dollar tender, That figure is slightly lower than last weeks $575m but significantly below the numbers seen at the height of the crisis in 2008. With EURUSD basis swaps at current levels, increased usage of the USD swap facility is likely. The European Systemic Risk Board sees a considerable increase in risks to the EU's financial system.,
The IMF described the downside risks for the global economy as 'growing'. They advised the ECB to cut interest rates if debt tensions persist, and to keep intervening 'strongly' in debt markets. The IMF now sees global growth at 4% this year, down from 4.3% in June.
EU Commissioner Michel Barnier said that he could not rule out state support would be needed in the event of recapitalizations, though would prefer to see this happen through the private sector. State funding for banks would again put ratings of many nations into question.
The Greek government has announced it would accelerate budget cuts to ensure funding remains in place. Finance Ministers Venizelos warned that the financial sector and real economy could stop functioning without funding in place.
GBP
As expected the MPC minutes were dovish. The vote split for further asset purchases remained 8-1, with Adam Posen remaining the sole dissenter, but 'most' members said their decisions were close. Downside risks to growth and inflation were stressed and any signs of hawkish comments were removed from discussion. The BoE has clearly shifted in its stance. It was interesting to note that the possibility of changing the maturity profile of the Bank's asset portfolio was discussed. Clearly the 'operation twist' in the US has gained support elsewhere.
The BoE's Spencer Dale said that further stimulus may be needed if the economy weakens further. However, he said the need for stimulus needs to be weighed against continuing high inflation. He added that the outlook for demand has weakened 'quite materially' and said that recent data on UK unemployment is 'worrying'.
CAD
Canadian retail sales are due today, market expecting a -0.3% sequential decline in July.
Canada consumer prices rose faster than expected in August, climbing 0.3% m/m (consensus 0.1%, UBSe 0.0%). This pushed headline inflation to 3.1%. Core prices were also stronger, up 0.4% m/m, resulting in the annual rate of climbing up to 1.9%. As Carney alluded to yesterday however, rates will likely stay low for an extended period.
AUD
The RBA's Battelino said the bank is keeping an open mind' on policy. He also dismissed the current rate-cut pricing, saying market priced the same in 2003 but the cuts didn't transpire. We agree and expect AUD to stay supported versa other risk currencies as a consequence.
NZD
The RBNZ Governor Bollard said the NZD was overvalued and they are in no hurry to hike.
New Zealand Q2 GDP was weaker than expected, increasing by 0.1%q/q in the June 2011 quarter, following an upward revision of 0.9% for the March 2011 quarter. Our economists note that for monetary policy, there is nothing in the GDP data that will cause the RBNZ to want to hike earlier. Conversely, they are not convinced that the data ought to delay the RBNZ either.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
21st of September 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
21 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD BEARISH Initial support lies at 1.3587, a break below this level would expose 1.3495. Resistance is at 1.3787 ahead of 1.3937.
USDJPY BEARISH Focus is on 75.95, the key low from Aug 19. A move below this level would open the psychological level of 75.00. Resistance is at 77.00.
GBPUSD BEARISH Decline through 1.5633 would expose 1.5583. Initial resistance is at 1.5797.
USDCHF BULLISH Clear break of 0.8928 would open the way towards 0.9012 and 0.9105. Near-term support lies at 0.8700, the intraday low.
AUDUSD BEARISH Watch for a move below 1.0126, the Fibonacci level, to expose 0.9928, while resistance holds at 1.0399.
USDCAD BULLISH Rise through 0.9977 would expose 1.0027, a key high from Sep.12. Initial support lies at 0.9766.
EURCHF BULLISH Break above 1.2191 has turned the model bullish and opened resistance at 1.2346 ahead of 1.2469. Support lies at 1.2051.
EURGBP BEARISH Fall below 0.8671 would expose 0.8639, followed by 0.8596. Resistance is at 0.8791.
EURJPY BEARISH Pressure is on 103.90, a key low from Sep 12. A break below this level would expose 102.02. Resistance is at 106.00.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
21 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD BEARISH Initial support lies at 1.3587, a break below this level would expose 1.3495. Resistance is at 1.3787 ahead of 1.3937.
USDJPY BEARISH Focus is on 75.95, the key low from Aug 19. A move below this level would open the psychological level of 75.00. Resistance is at 77.00.
GBPUSD BEARISH Decline through 1.5633 would expose 1.5583. Initial resistance is at 1.5797.
USDCHF BULLISH Clear break of 0.8928 would open the way towards 0.9012 and 0.9105. Near-term support lies at 0.8700, the intraday low.
AUDUSD BEARISH Watch for a move below 1.0126, the Fibonacci level, to expose 0.9928, while resistance holds at 1.0399.
USDCAD BULLISH Rise through 0.9977 would expose 1.0027, a key high from Sep.12. Initial support lies at 0.9766.
EURCHF BULLISH Break above 1.2191 has turned the model bullish and opened resistance at 1.2346 ahead of 1.2469. Support lies at 1.2051.
EURGBP BEARISH Fall below 0.8671 would expose 0.8639, followed by 0.8596. Resistance is at 0.8791.
EURJPY BEARISH Pressure is on 103.90, a key low from Sep 12. A break below this level would expose 102.02. Resistance is at 106.00.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
21st of September 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
21 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The Eurozone just might be able to stay out of the limelight later today as the Fed decision is due. Our base case remains for some form of 'Operation Twist' but we do not believe this will have the dollar debasement effect that QE2 had. Our economists also note that given the unusual level of dissent within the FOMC, investors should not expect any form of action as a given. More data is needed and the Eurozone crisis and the potential disruption to financial markets has probably factored into the Fed's overall assessment. In the Eurozone, the Greek Finance Ministry has expressed confidence in obtaining the next tranche of aid as Troika members are expected to return to the country soon. However, developments in other Eurozone countries are still worrying as respective political processes may delay implementation of the July 21 agreements. Elsewhere today, BoE minutes many show another voter for QE in the UK and Norges Bank should give a cautious outlook while keeping rates on hold. EURUSD traded 1.3745-1.3594 overnight and USDJPY 76.41-76.76. Apart from the FOMC decision, existing home sales are due in Europe.
EUR
The Slovenian cabinet lost a confidence vote in parliament. Our rates strategists note that the government will now have 30 days to find a new leader and assemble a parliamentary majority. If this can't be achieved, then parliament will be dissolved and elections will take place, with 4th December being the earliest election date. This potentially complicates ratification of the EFSF changes agreed by EU leaders on 21 July. All 17 eurozone states must ratify the changes before the new EFSF capabilities can become operational. Earlier, the Slovakian vote on the amended EFSF should be tied to a vote of confidence in the cabinet, according to the finance minister, to apply pressure on the junior coalition partner, the Freedom and Solidarity party (SaS). Slovakia has indicated previously that it will wait for all other Eurozone states to implement the proposals before voting.
The Greek government announced the heads of the troika are due back in the country next week.
ECB's Nowotny said that European banks can get 'vast amounts' of ECB loans, and have plenty of eligible collateral available. He says that the sooner the ECB scales back bond purchases the better
The IMF described the downside risks for the global economy as 'growing'. They advised the ECB to cut interest rates if debt tensions persist, and to keep intervening 'strongly' in debt markets. The IMF now sees global growth at 4% this year, down from 4.3% in June.
Standard and Poor's downgraded its ratings on Italy by one notch to A/A-1 and kept its outlook on negative. In a release dated Sept. 19, S&P said the cut reflected its view of Italy's weakening economic growth prospects. The euro performed well in European trading however, despite the announcement.
The German ZEW survey was weak. Current situation index was +43.6 vs +45.0 cons, economic sentiment at -43.3 vs -45.0 consensus. While the ZEW survey results are at levels last seen in 2008, they were slightly better than consensus, and thus had limited market impact.
The Financial Times reported that a German industrial group withdrew some of its money from a French bank and put it at the ECB. Partly this was because of concerns about the future financial health of the bank and partly to benefit from higher interest rates paid by the ECB, a person with direct knowledge of the matter said.
JPY
Prime Minister Noda said Japan is open to buying more EFSF bonds to help stabilize European markets. He also said the Government and BoJ share the same view over the strong yen and there is no change in policy to take decisive steps against excessive currency moves.
GBP
Bloomberg via BBC reports that UK ministers are in discussions on GBP5 bn 'boost' for the economy.
The BoE Minutes from the September meeting are due and there is a chance that we will see another voter for further asset purchases. Such a change in stance would likely weigh on sterling, particularly against the dollar.
CAD
BoC's Carney remained dovish. He said rates can stay low 'after economy recovers', and repeated that CAD strength is a headwind for exports.
Ahead today Canada CPI is due markets are looking for a stronger headline print of 2.9% but the core print is expected to remain unchanged at 0.2%m/m, 1.6%y/y.
AUD
The Australia Leading Index came in at 0.5%y/y in July, 3.1%y/y, better than the previous month's print.
NZD
New Zealand's Q2 current account deficit was much weaker than expected at NZD$920mln. Our analysts note the figures were not comforting in terms of direction but sufficiently low for the time being to keep the country off the radar as far as ratings are concerned.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
21 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The Eurozone just might be able to stay out of the limelight later today as the Fed decision is due. Our base case remains for some form of 'Operation Twist' but we do not believe this will have the dollar debasement effect that QE2 had. Our economists also note that given the unusual level of dissent within the FOMC, investors should not expect any form of action as a given. More data is needed and the Eurozone crisis and the potential disruption to financial markets has probably factored into the Fed's overall assessment. In the Eurozone, the Greek Finance Ministry has expressed confidence in obtaining the next tranche of aid as Troika members are expected to return to the country soon. However, developments in other Eurozone countries are still worrying as respective political processes may delay implementation of the July 21 agreements. Elsewhere today, BoE minutes many show another voter for QE in the UK and Norges Bank should give a cautious outlook while keeping rates on hold. EURUSD traded 1.3745-1.3594 overnight and USDJPY 76.41-76.76. Apart from the FOMC decision, existing home sales are due in Europe.
EUR
The Slovenian cabinet lost a confidence vote in parliament. Our rates strategists note that the government will now have 30 days to find a new leader and assemble a parliamentary majority. If this can't be achieved, then parliament will be dissolved and elections will take place, with 4th December being the earliest election date. This potentially complicates ratification of the EFSF changes agreed by EU leaders on 21 July. All 17 eurozone states must ratify the changes before the new EFSF capabilities can become operational. Earlier, the Slovakian vote on the amended EFSF should be tied to a vote of confidence in the cabinet, according to the finance minister, to apply pressure on the junior coalition partner, the Freedom and Solidarity party (SaS). Slovakia has indicated previously that it will wait for all other Eurozone states to implement the proposals before voting.
The Greek government announced the heads of the troika are due back in the country next week.
ECB's Nowotny said that European banks can get 'vast amounts' of ECB loans, and have plenty of eligible collateral available. He says that the sooner the ECB scales back bond purchases the better
The IMF described the downside risks for the global economy as 'growing'. They advised the ECB to cut interest rates if debt tensions persist, and to keep intervening 'strongly' in debt markets. The IMF now sees global growth at 4% this year, down from 4.3% in June.
Standard and Poor's downgraded its ratings on Italy by one notch to A/A-1 and kept its outlook on negative. In a release dated Sept. 19, S&P said the cut reflected its view of Italy's weakening economic growth prospects. The euro performed well in European trading however, despite the announcement.
The German ZEW survey was weak. Current situation index was +43.6 vs +45.0 cons, economic sentiment at -43.3 vs -45.0 consensus. While the ZEW survey results are at levels last seen in 2008, they were slightly better than consensus, and thus had limited market impact.
The Financial Times reported that a German industrial group withdrew some of its money from a French bank and put it at the ECB. Partly this was because of concerns about the future financial health of the bank and partly to benefit from higher interest rates paid by the ECB, a person with direct knowledge of the matter said.
JPY
Prime Minister Noda said Japan is open to buying more EFSF bonds to help stabilize European markets. He also said the Government and BoJ share the same view over the strong yen and there is no change in policy to take decisive steps against excessive currency moves.
GBP
Bloomberg via BBC reports that UK ministers are in discussions on GBP5 bn 'boost' for the economy.
The BoE Minutes from the September meeting are due and there is a chance that we will see another voter for further asset purchases. Such a change in stance would likely weigh on sterling, particularly against the dollar.
CAD
BoC's Carney remained dovish. He said rates can stay low 'after economy recovers', and repeated that CAD strength is a headwind for exports.
Ahead today Canada CPI is due markets are looking for a stronger headline print of 2.9% but the core print is expected to remain unchanged at 0.2%m/m, 1.6%y/y.
AUD
The Australia Leading Index came in at 0.5%y/y in July, 3.1%y/y, better than the previous month's print.
NZD
New Zealand's Q2 current account deficit was much weaker than expected at NZD$920mln. Our analysts note the figures were not comforting in terms of direction but sufficiently low for the time being to keep the country off the radar as far as ratings are concerned.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
20th of September 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
20 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
S&P downgraded Italy's long-term debt by one notch overnight, from A+ to A, on expectations of weak growth. It also cited the country's fragile politics as a hindrance to its ability to reduce debt. The outlook on debt remains negative. The move is likely to cause an escalation in fears over the Eurozone but may also provide the impetus for Eurozone governments to speed up their austerity plans, and efforts to push the July 21agreements on the EFSF past parliament. In Greece, the government announced it would hold another conference call with the Troika today and the results of the talks may be announced as early as Wednesday.
It appears that the next aid tranche will be released in exchange for further austerity measures, though the market will also question how long the status-quo is sustainable. In other news, the RBA minutes largely mirrored the post-decision release as the central bank noted weak external developments were a risk, but also an effective factor which could contain domestic inflation. Japanese Finance Minister Azumi said Japan's economy would not recover as quickly with a strong JPY and said he would explain the country's position at the G20. Ahead today we expect risk to continue trading on a heavy tone. EURUSD trade 1.3583-1.3688 overnight and USDJPY 76.45-76.66.
EUR
The Financial Times reported that a German industrial group withdrew some of its money from a French bank and put it at the ECB. Partly this was because of concerns about the future financial health of the bank and partly to benefit from higher interest rates paid by the ECB, a person with direct knowledge of the matter said.
The ECB purchased EUR9.79 bn of peripheral market debt last week.
The ECB's Weidmann said that the EFSF doesn't necessarily need its AAA rating. Without a AAA rating then the effective capacity of EFSF can be increased within the current framework (>EUR250bn out o EUR440bn). However this is probably an implicit acknowledgement that France is not a AAA country.
The Greek government will continue talks with the Troika today after Monday's conference call, we expect details to be released Wednesday on the next EFSF tranche.
ECB President Trichet said overnight that Eurozone banks must strengthen balance sheets and improve their resistance. He also stated that the swap line agreements between central banks showed 'close cooperation' with the Federal Reserve, and again called upon all governments to apply measures adopted on July 21st.
A story in Greek papers said Greek PM Papandreou was planning a referendum on Eurozone exit, and said a bill may be put through parliament in the coming days.
CHF
According to the SNB's important monetary policy data for the week ending Sept 16, the total sight deposits in CHF at the SNB on an average stood at CHF247.4 bn.
The Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) just published its September '11 econmic forecasts. It now expects GDP (real) growth of +1.9 % in 2011 (prev +2.1%) and +0.9% in 2012 (prev +1.5%). This compares to UBSe growth forecasts of +2.0% and +1.3% for '11 and '12 respectively.
GBP
The Financial Times reported on Monday that a GBP12 bn black hole has opened in the UK's public finances which, if true, would lead to lower economic growth numbers and provide problems for the already implemented fiscal austerity plan.. UK Business Secretary Vince Cable said he did not believe in the story.
The Rightmove House Price Index showed a 0.7%m/m gain, 1.5%y/y. The BoE minutes are due this week and we note an extra voter for QE is possible. We expect GBP to remain under pressure in the near term.
AUD
The RBA minutes affirmed a neutral stance from the central bank. The release was broadly in line with the policy statement and far more balanced than current market expectations. We believe that the OIS markets are pricing in too many rate cuts before year-end.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
20 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
S&P downgraded Italy's long-term debt by one notch overnight, from A+ to A, on expectations of weak growth. It also cited the country's fragile politics as a hindrance to its ability to reduce debt. The outlook on debt remains negative. The move is likely to cause an escalation in fears over the Eurozone but may also provide the impetus for Eurozone governments to speed up their austerity plans, and efforts to push the July 21agreements on the EFSF past parliament. In Greece, the government announced it would hold another conference call with the Troika today and the results of the talks may be announced as early as Wednesday.
It appears that the next aid tranche will be released in exchange for further austerity measures, though the market will also question how long the status-quo is sustainable. In other news, the RBA minutes largely mirrored the post-decision release as the central bank noted weak external developments were a risk, but also an effective factor which could contain domestic inflation. Japanese Finance Minister Azumi said Japan's economy would not recover as quickly with a strong JPY and said he would explain the country's position at the G20. Ahead today we expect risk to continue trading on a heavy tone. EURUSD trade 1.3583-1.3688 overnight and USDJPY 76.45-76.66.
EUR
The Financial Times reported that a German industrial group withdrew some of its money from a French bank and put it at the ECB. Partly this was because of concerns about the future financial health of the bank and partly to benefit from higher interest rates paid by the ECB, a person with direct knowledge of the matter said.
The ECB purchased EUR9.79 bn of peripheral market debt last week.
The ECB's Weidmann said that the EFSF doesn't necessarily need its AAA rating. Without a AAA rating then the effective capacity of EFSF can be increased within the current framework (>EUR250bn out o EUR440bn). However this is probably an implicit acknowledgement that France is not a AAA country.
The Greek government will continue talks with the Troika today after Monday's conference call, we expect details to be released Wednesday on the next EFSF tranche.
ECB President Trichet said overnight that Eurozone banks must strengthen balance sheets and improve their resistance. He also stated that the swap line agreements between central banks showed 'close cooperation' with the Federal Reserve, and again called upon all governments to apply measures adopted on July 21st.
A story in Greek papers said Greek PM Papandreou was planning a referendum on Eurozone exit, and said a bill may be put through parliament in the coming days.
CHF
According to the SNB's important monetary policy data for the week ending Sept 16, the total sight deposits in CHF at the SNB on an average stood at CHF247.4 bn.
The Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) just published its September '11 econmic forecasts. It now expects GDP (real) growth of +1.9 % in 2011 (prev +2.1%) and +0.9% in 2012 (prev +1.5%). This compares to UBSe growth forecasts of +2.0% and +1.3% for '11 and '12 respectively.
GBP
The Financial Times reported on Monday that a GBP12 bn black hole has opened in the UK's public finances which, if true, would lead to lower economic growth numbers and provide problems for the already implemented fiscal austerity plan.. UK Business Secretary Vince Cable said he did not believe in the story.
The Rightmove House Price Index showed a 0.7%m/m gain, 1.5%y/y. The BoE minutes are due this week and we note an extra voter for QE is possible. We expect GBP to remain under pressure in the near term.
AUD
The RBA minutes affirmed a neutral stance from the central bank. The release was broadly in line with the policy statement and far more balanced than current market expectations. We believe that the OIS markets are pricing in too many rate cuts before year-end.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Monday, September 19, 2011
19th of September 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
19 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
GBPUSD 1.5676 support.
EURUSD BEARISH Fall through 1.3704 has opened 1.3558 ahead of the key low at 1.3495. Resistance is at 1.3787, intraday high.
USDJPY BEARISH Initial support lies at 76.43, a move below which would expose 75.95, the key low. Resistance is at 77.28.
GBPUSD BEARISH Decline through 1.5707 has opened the way for losses towards 1.5676, a Fibonacci level, and 1.5583. Resistance is at 1.5765.
USDCHF BULLISH Resistance is at 0.8854, a break above which would open the key low from Sep 12 of 0.8928. Near-term support lies at 0.8647.
AUDUSD BEARISH Drop below 1.0178 would expose 1.0126. Initial resistance is at 1.0399.
USDCAD NEUTRAL Support lies at 0.9754 ahead of 0.9725, a key low from Aug. 31, while a recovery through 0.9861 would expose 0.9950.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Key resistance is at 1.2191, the Sep. 6 high. Support lies at 1.1973.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Break of 0.8697 has turned the model bearish; initial support lies at 0.8639 ahead of 0.8596. Resistance is at 0.8791
EURJPY BEARISH Violation of support at 104.41 would expose 103.90, a key low from Sep. 12. Initial resistance is at 106.00, the intraday high.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
19 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
GBPUSD 1.5676 support.
EURUSD BEARISH Fall through 1.3704 has opened 1.3558 ahead of the key low at 1.3495. Resistance is at 1.3787, intraday high.
USDJPY BEARISH Initial support lies at 76.43, a move below which would expose 75.95, the key low. Resistance is at 77.28.
GBPUSD BEARISH Decline through 1.5707 has opened the way for losses towards 1.5676, a Fibonacci level, and 1.5583. Resistance is at 1.5765.
USDCHF BULLISH Resistance is at 0.8854, a break above which would open the key low from Sep 12 of 0.8928. Near-term support lies at 0.8647.
AUDUSD BEARISH Drop below 1.0178 would expose 1.0126. Initial resistance is at 1.0399.
USDCAD NEUTRAL Support lies at 0.9754 ahead of 0.9725, a key low from Aug. 31, while a recovery through 0.9861 would expose 0.9950.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Key resistance is at 1.2191, the Sep. 6 high. Support lies at 1.1973.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Break of 0.8697 has turned the model bearish; initial support lies at 0.8639 ahead of 0.8596. Resistance is at 0.8791
EURJPY BEARISH Violation of support at 104.41 would expose 103.90, a key low from Sep. 12. Initial resistance is at 106.00, the intraday high.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
19th of September 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
19 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The euro continued to suffer on Monday during the Asia session concerns mount over the situation in Greece. With another EUR8bn in funding by the Troika witheld and Greece's current cash running out, investors appear willing to price in a greater chance of default. Prime Minister Papandreou cancelled a planned trip to the US stating the need to remain in the country as talks with the troika resume. As it stands, the Troika is expected to demand fresh austerity measures otherwise the next trance of funding could be witheld, as reported by several news agencies. In addition, domestic politics threatens to complicate the situtaion as the leader of the opposition has called for new elections. This has been dismissed outright but clearly it shows how capacity for fresh austerity will be extremely restrained given the lack of national unity.
Otherwise, market focus for the week ahead will undoubtedly be with the Fed decision. Our economists are calling for 'operation twist' to be announced. In doing so the maturity of its balance sheet will be extended to lower long-term interest rates. Our economists note that as such a policy is apt to be controversial for the divided FOMC, investors should not view such a change as high-probability, while further balance sheet expansion is unlikely. We expect risk to stay on a soft note in general, pending further developments in the Eurozone. EURUSD opened much lower and the pair traded in a range of 1.3647-1.3790, while USDJPY traded 76.87 - 77.00. Major indices in Asia are trading in a nervy manner on fears the Eurozone crisis could hit global growth even mor.
EUR
US Treasury Secretary Geithner said bigger EU economies should be ring-fenced from the crisis. Geithner was pressed at the Eurogroup meeting for Eurozone to leverage EFSF, but made no reference to the TALF programme. We believe that it really depends on how the plan is being sold to the European governments. The story needs to be about balance sheet creation/conservation and bank term funding, and has nothing to do with money printing
Greek Finance Minister Venizelos said the country must promote changes to achieve competitiveness, and the fiscal targets for this year and next. He noted that Geithner's presence at the recent Eurogroup meetings showed the situation was critical, but ruled out political compromises and aid he was 'taken aback' by comments by the opposition. The Greece - Troika teleconference will be held later on Monday.
Finlands PM reiterated demand for Greece collateral, though an agreement was not reached over the weekend. The next gathering of the Eurogroup is on October 3rd, and all parties would hope that the July 21st agreements were ratified ahead of time.
German finance ministers warned that he couldn't say when the Troika mission would be completed, but stressed that there was no 'euro crisis'. He also said over the weekend that the Greece situation was 'not that urgent' and monetary policy alone wouldn't solve real world problem. He ruled out fresh fiscal stimulus as suggested by Geithner.
In German state elections in Berlin, Chancellor Merkel's party's vote share increased but coalition party FDP's share fell below the 5% required to gain seats.
ECB's Mersch said that that he could imagine Eurozone bonds issued jointly by the AAA credit-rated states. Nowotny said that the ECB's bond buying is temporary and the ECB would need to rethink its bond buying program if EFSF ratification is delayed. However, German Chancellor Merkel said euro bonds are 'absolutely' the wrong way forward..
GBP
BoE's Weale moved from being one of the most hawkish on the committee to sounding dovish, suggesting that QE could be implemented if inflation risks undershooting its long-run target and also noted that the risk of recession has increased since July.
The Rightmove House Price Index showed a 0.7%m/m gain, 1.5%y/y. The BoE minutes are due this week and we note an extra voter for QE is possible. We expect GBP to remain under pressure in the near term.
NZD
The Westpac Q3 New Zealand consumer confidence figure was unchanged at 112.0. We remain cautious on NZD at current levels as the RBNZ is in no hurry to move on rates in the near future. Q2 GDP is due this week, and a modest 0.5% quarterly rise is expected.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
19 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The euro continued to suffer on Monday during the Asia session concerns mount over the situation in Greece. With another EUR8bn in funding by the Troika witheld and Greece's current cash running out, investors appear willing to price in a greater chance of default. Prime Minister Papandreou cancelled a planned trip to the US stating the need to remain in the country as talks with the troika resume. As it stands, the Troika is expected to demand fresh austerity measures otherwise the next trance of funding could be witheld, as reported by several news agencies. In addition, domestic politics threatens to complicate the situtaion as the leader of the opposition has called for new elections. This has been dismissed outright but clearly it shows how capacity for fresh austerity will be extremely restrained given the lack of national unity.
Otherwise, market focus for the week ahead will undoubtedly be with the Fed decision. Our economists are calling for 'operation twist' to be announced. In doing so the maturity of its balance sheet will be extended to lower long-term interest rates. Our economists note that as such a policy is apt to be controversial for the divided FOMC, investors should not view such a change as high-probability, while further balance sheet expansion is unlikely. We expect risk to stay on a soft note in general, pending further developments in the Eurozone. EURUSD opened much lower and the pair traded in a range of 1.3647-1.3790, while USDJPY traded 76.87 - 77.00. Major indices in Asia are trading in a nervy manner on fears the Eurozone crisis could hit global growth even mor.
EUR
US Treasury Secretary Geithner said bigger EU economies should be ring-fenced from the crisis. Geithner was pressed at the Eurogroup meeting for Eurozone to leverage EFSF, but made no reference to the TALF programme. We believe that it really depends on how the plan is being sold to the European governments. The story needs to be about balance sheet creation/conservation and bank term funding, and has nothing to do with money printing
Greek Finance Minister Venizelos said the country must promote changes to achieve competitiveness, and the fiscal targets for this year and next. He noted that Geithner's presence at the recent Eurogroup meetings showed the situation was critical, but ruled out political compromises and aid he was 'taken aback' by comments by the opposition. The Greece - Troika teleconference will be held later on Monday.
Finlands PM reiterated demand for Greece collateral, though an agreement was not reached over the weekend. The next gathering of the Eurogroup is on October 3rd, and all parties would hope that the July 21st agreements were ratified ahead of time.
German finance ministers warned that he couldn't say when the Troika mission would be completed, but stressed that there was no 'euro crisis'. He also said over the weekend that the Greece situation was 'not that urgent' and monetary policy alone wouldn't solve real world problem. He ruled out fresh fiscal stimulus as suggested by Geithner.
In German state elections in Berlin, Chancellor Merkel's party's vote share increased but coalition party FDP's share fell below the 5% required to gain seats.
ECB's Mersch said that that he could imagine Eurozone bonds issued jointly by the AAA credit-rated states. Nowotny said that the ECB's bond buying is temporary and the ECB would need to rethink its bond buying program if EFSF ratification is delayed. However, German Chancellor Merkel said euro bonds are 'absolutely' the wrong way forward..
GBP
BoE's Weale moved from being one of the most hawkish on the committee to sounding dovish, suggesting that QE could be implemented if inflation risks undershooting its long-run target and also noted that the risk of recession has increased since July.
The Rightmove House Price Index showed a 0.7%m/m gain, 1.5%y/y. The BoE minutes are due this week and we note an extra voter for QE is possible. We expect GBP to remain under pressure in the near term.
NZD
The Westpac Q3 New Zealand consumer confidence figure was unchanged at 112.0. We remain cautious on NZD at current levels as the RBNZ is in no hurry to move on rates in the near future. Q2 GDP is due this week, and a modest 0.5% quarterly rise is expected.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Friday, September 16, 2011
16th of September 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
16 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD resistance 1.4022.
EURUSD BEARISH While resistance holds at 1.4022, a Fibonacci level, watch for a fall below 1.3704 to expose 1.3591.
USDJPY BEARISH Break below 76.43 would open up 75.95, the key low. Resistance is at 77.68.
GBPUSD BEARISH Decline through 1.5707 would expose 1.5676. Resistance is at 1.5991.
USDCHF BULLISH As long as support at 0.8540 is intact, a clearance of 0.8854 would open 0.8928 next.
AUDUSD BEARISH Fall through 1.0111 would expose the key low at 0.9928. Resistance is at 1.0478.
USDCAD NEUTRAL The near-term directional triggers are at 1.0027 and 0.9725.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.2191, the high from Sept 6. Support lies at 1.2000.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Rise through 0.8886 would trigger a bull trend while a pull back through 0.8639 would signal resumption of bear trend.
EURJPY BEARISH Initial support is at 104.55 ahead of 103.90. Resistance is at 108.00.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
16 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD resistance 1.4022.
EURUSD BEARISH While resistance holds at 1.4022, a Fibonacci level, watch for a fall below 1.3704 to expose 1.3591.
USDJPY BEARISH Break below 76.43 would open up 75.95, the key low. Resistance is at 77.68.
GBPUSD BEARISH Decline through 1.5707 would expose 1.5676. Resistance is at 1.5991.
USDCHF BULLISH As long as support at 0.8540 is intact, a clearance of 0.8854 would open 0.8928 next.
AUDUSD BEARISH Fall through 1.0111 would expose the key low at 0.9928. Resistance is at 1.0478.
USDCAD NEUTRAL The near-term directional triggers are at 1.0027 and 0.9725.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.2191, the high from Sept 6. Support lies at 1.2000.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Rise through 0.8886 would trigger a bull trend while a pull back through 0.8639 would signal resumption of bear trend.
EURJPY BEARISH Initial support is at 104.55 ahead of 103.90. Resistance is at 108.00.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
16th of September 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
16 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk sentiment improved in Asia, mainly on the back of yesterday's constructive performance of European and US markets after news that the BoE, ECB, BoJ, and SNB were opening dollar swap lines with the Fed. This is a clear sign that central banks want to dispel concerns about dollar funding. ECB President Trichet said the globally coordinated decision on dollar liquidity is a clear illustration of close cooperation between central banks. The Swiss National Bank made no change to monetary policy and indicated that its EURCHF policy is unlikely to change in the short term, saying it is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities. Most Asian stock market indices are trading in the black, with the Nikkei up by 2.0%. EURUSD traded 1.3867-1.3893 and USDJPY traded 76.68-76.87. On the data front yesterday, the Philadelphia Fed index came in at -17.5 vs -15.0 consensus. Our US economists note that the employment index rose into positive territory, and the new orders index rose but still suggested contraction. The six-month outlook measures also improved notably. Investor focus will now shift to today's meeting of EU finance ministers and central bankers, which US Treasury Secretary Geithner will also be attending.
EUR
Dollar swap lines with the Fed will be opened by the BoE, ECB, BoJ, and SNB. This will see dollar liquidity provided in 3-month as well as 7-day facilities. The ECB's 7-day facility has rarely been used (although 2 banks recently tapped it this week). This move is a clear sign from the central banks that they want to put the dollar funding issue to the backseat. It is a precautionary measure and they want to show to markets that they are wiling to provide liquidity if and when it is needed.
Reuters reported that US Treasury Secretary Geithner will press European officials to use the EFSF as a form of TALF. The key issue around TALF in a European context would be to assist with bank bond rolls. Previously, the TALF was designed to take asset backed securities and create a Fed assisted market. .
ECB's Stark said the ECB liquidity measures will stay as long as needed; he said a coordinated system of economic policies is needed; and Eurobonds are not the solution to debt crisis.
After 15 Months, it was reported that Belgian political parties have reached a breakthrough in talks to forma new Government
EU commissioner Rehn said it is clear the sovereign debt crisis has worsened. There is a need for countries to get their budgets on a sustainable path
ECB's Mersch said that that he could imagine Eurozone bonds issued jointly by the AAA credit-rated states. Nowotny said that the ECB's bond buying is temporary and the ECB would need to rethink its bond buying program if EFSF ratification is delayed. However, German Chancellor Merkel said euro bonds are 'absolutely' the wrong way forward.
GBP
BoE's Weale moved from being one of the most hawkish on the committee to sounding dovish, suggesting that QE could be implemented if inflation risks undershooting its long-run target and also noted that the risk of recession has increased since July.
UK inflation expectations for two years ahead rose to +3.5% in August vs +3.2% in May. For the year ahead they rose +4.2% in August vs +3.9% in May, according to the BoE. Our UK economist notes that the MPC will be somewhat worried by these developments, especially because inflation is yet to peak, but in general, the BoE has held the view that inflation expectations tend to follow actual inflation.
UK August headlines retail sales were slightly above consensus at -0.2 m/m vs -0.3% cons, with the underlying (ex-fuel) growth at -0.1% m/m vs of -0.2% expected..
CHF
As expected the SNB offered no change in policy. However, the bank said it aims for sight deposits of over CHF200 The bank said it is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities; aiming to defend the 1.20 FX goal.
Our analysts notes that the SNB's conditional inflation forecast has shifted substantially downwards due to the CHF's massive appreciation and deterioration in the global economic outlook. For 2011, the forecast shows an inflation rate of 0.4%, for 2012 a rate of -0.3% and for 2013 a rate of 0.5%. This forecast is based on the assumption of a 3-month Libor of 0.0% and further weakening in the CHF. Although there's no risk of inflation in Switzerland in the foreseeable future, there are downside risks for price stability if the CHF does not weaken any further.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
16 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk sentiment improved in Asia, mainly on the back of yesterday's constructive performance of European and US markets after news that the BoE, ECB, BoJ, and SNB were opening dollar swap lines with the Fed. This is a clear sign that central banks want to dispel concerns about dollar funding. ECB President Trichet said the globally coordinated decision on dollar liquidity is a clear illustration of close cooperation between central banks. The Swiss National Bank made no change to monetary policy and indicated that its EURCHF policy is unlikely to change in the short term, saying it is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities. Most Asian stock market indices are trading in the black, with the Nikkei up by 2.0%. EURUSD traded 1.3867-1.3893 and USDJPY traded 76.68-76.87. On the data front yesterday, the Philadelphia Fed index came in at -17.5 vs -15.0 consensus. Our US economists note that the employment index rose into positive territory, and the new orders index rose but still suggested contraction. The six-month outlook measures also improved notably. Investor focus will now shift to today's meeting of EU finance ministers and central bankers, which US Treasury Secretary Geithner will also be attending.
EUR
Dollar swap lines with the Fed will be opened by the BoE, ECB, BoJ, and SNB. This will see dollar liquidity provided in 3-month as well as 7-day facilities. The ECB's 7-day facility has rarely been used (although 2 banks recently tapped it this week). This move is a clear sign from the central banks that they want to put the dollar funding issue to the backseat. It is a precautionary measure and they want to show to markets that they are wiling to provide liquidity if and when it is needed.
Reuters reported that US Treasury Secretary Geithner will press European officials to use the EFSF as a form of TALF. The key issue around TALF in a European context would be to assist with bank bond rolls. Previously, the TALF was designed to take asset backed securities and create a Fed assisted market. .
ECB's Stark said the ECB liquidity measures will stay as long as needed; he said a coordinated system of economic policies is needed; and Eurobonds are not the solution to debt crisis.
After 15 Months, it was reported that Belgian political parties have reached a breakthrough in talks to forma new Government
EU commissioner Rehn said it is clear the sovereign debt crisis has worsened. There is a need for countries to get their budgets on a sustainable path
ECB's Mersch said that that he could imagine Eurozone bonds issued jointly by the AAA credit-rated states. Nowotny said that the ECB's bond buying is temporary and the ECB would need to rethink its bond buying program if EFSF ratification is delayed. However, German Chancellor Merkel said euro bonds are 'absolutely' the wrong way forward.
GBP
BoE's Weale moved from being one of the most hawkish on the committee to sounding dovish, suggesting that QE could be implemented if inflation risks undershooting its long-run target and also noted that the risk of recession has increased since July.
UK inflation expectations for two years ahead rose to +3.5% in August vs +3.2% in May. For the year ahead they rose +4.2% in August vs +3.9% in May, according to the BoE. Our UK economist notes that the MPC will be somewhat worried by these developments, especially because inflation is yet to peak, but in general, the BoE has held the view that inflation expectations tend to follow actual inflation.
UK August headlines retail sales were slightly above consensus at -0.2 m/m vs -0.3% cons, with the underlying (ex-fuel) growth at -0.1% m/m vs of -0.2% expected..
CHF
As expected the SNB offered no change in policy. However, the bank said it aims for sight deposits of over CHF200 The bank said it is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities; aiming to defend the 1.20 FX goal.
Our analysts notes that the SNB's conditional inflation forecast has shifted substantially downwards due to the CHF's massive appreciation and deterioration in the global economic outlook. For 2011, the forecast shows an inflation rate of 0.4%, for 2012 a rate of -0.3% and for 2013 a rate of 0.5%. This forecast is based on the assumption of a 3-month Libor of 0.0% and further weakening in the CHF. Although there's no risk of inflation in Switzerland in the foreseeable future, there are downside risks for price stability if the CHF does not weaken any further.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Thursday, September 15, 2011
15th of September 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
15 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURGBP 0.8749 resistance.
EURUSD BEARISH As long as resistance at 1.3837 is intact, look for a move below 1.3591 to expose 1.3495.
USDJPY BEARISH Our focus is on 76.43, a break below which would open 75.95, the key low. Resistance is at 77.25.
GBPUSD BEARISH Initial support is at 1.5676, a Fibonacci level, ahead of 1.5583. Resistance is at 1.5870.
USDCHF BULLISH Key resistance is at 0.8928; a rise through which would expose 0.9105. Support lies at 0.8706 ahead of 0.8540.
AUDUSD BEARISH Decline through 1.0111 would expose the key low at 0.9928. Resistance is at 1.0376.
USDCAD BULLISH Clearance of 0.9977 would open up 1.0027. Initial support lies at 0.9891, the intraday low.
EURCHF NEUTRAL The cross is consolidating below 1.2191, the high from Sept 6. A break here would open 1.2346. Support lies at 1.1973, a previous high.
EURGBP BEARISH Near-term support is at 0.8639 ahead of 0.8596. Initial resistance is at 0.8749, a key Fibonacci level.
EURJPY BEARISH Fall through 103.90 would expose 102.45. Resistance is at 106.05.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
15 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURGBP 0.8749 resistance.
EURUSD BEARISH As long as resistance at 1.3837 is intact, look for a move below 1.3591 to expose 1.3495.
USDJPY BEARISH Our focus is on 76.43, a break below which would open 75.95, the key low. Resistance is at 77.25.
GBPUSD BEARISH Initial support is at 1.5676, a Fibonacci level, ahead of 1.5583. Resistance is at 1.5870.
USDCHF BULLISH Key resistance is at 0.8928; a rise through which would expose 0.9105. Support lies at 0.8706 ahead of 0.8540.
AUDUSD BEARISH Decline through 1.0111 would expose the key low at 0.9928. Resistance is at 1.0376.
USDCAD BULLISH Clearance of 0.9977 would open up 1.0027. Initial support lies at 0.9891, the intraday low.
EURCHF NEUTRAL The cross is consolidating below 1.2191, the high from Sept 6. A break here would open 1.2346. Support lies at 1.1973, a previous high.
EURGBP BEARISH Near-term support is at 0.8639 ahead of 0.8596. Initial resistance is at 0.8749, a key Fibonacci level.
EURJPY BEARISH Fall through 103.90 would expose 102.45. Resistance is at 106.05.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
15th of September 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
15 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk sentiment was stable in Asia, mainly in reaction to yesterday's constructive performance of European and US stock markets. Sentiment improved mainly on the notion that Greece will receive the next aid tranche from the IMF/EU after German Chancellor Merkel and French President Sarkozy both said that Greek Prime Minister Papandreou is committed to meeting agreed deficit-reduction targets and that they are convinced about Greece staying in the euro. However, the statement issued after yesterday's telephone conference actually offered little new of substance. New Zealand's central bank kept interest rates unchanged, mainly due to heightened uncertainty about global growth prospects. US data was generally soft yesterday. PPI was unchanged from last month while retail sales came in below expectations. Our US economists note that some of the softness may have been related to hurricanes, as households postponed spending, but there should also have been some offset. We remain cautious on risk and the euro against the dollar and yen in particular, amid uncertainty over policy implementation and growth concerns.
EUR
The conference call between Merkel, Sarkozy and Papandreou gave no further information to the markets. In similar fashion to previous statements, all 3 leaders committed to implementing the July 21 measures as quickly as possible. Germany said that Greece needs to put 'pledges into practice' to return to growth.
It was announced that 2 banks used the ECB's USD swap facility, for a total of $575 mn in the 7-day operation at fixed rate. While some have pointed to this as a further sign of funding stress, it is largely due to the large moves in EURUSD basis markets over recent weeks, banks will be increasingly tempted to use the facility if current trends continue. However, the very fact that the swap facility is now a cheaper option highlights the recent trend in funding concerns. It was also announced that Spanish banks borrowed EUR81.61 bn from ECB in August vs EUR57 bn in July, quite a sharp rise.
S&P said that is is very likely German banks could digest Greek default without state aid if crisis can be contained. They said the profit outlook for German banks appears negative, but not threatening yet if there is no recession or further widening of crisis
The EU Commissions Barosso said that the only way to stop a negative cycle of debt crisis is through deeper Eurozone integration; markets and investors will trust us only when we show that we can deliver on our commitments. He suggested that Eurobond proposals will soon be presented by the European Commission. The proposals that require substantial treaty change are no substitute for Greece meeting its obligations ECB's Costa also suggested that Europe needs to consider euro bonds, although the ECB have offered these thoughts before.
GBP
UK average earnings growth was 2.8% y/y in the three months through July from 2.7% in June and against forecasts for 2.8%. The UK's August claimant count jobless rose 20.3k in the month following a revised +33.7k in July (prelim +37.1k) and against forecasts for +35.0k. Overall, slightly supportive data for GBP although the currency remains driven by external factors at the moment.
Moody's stated that the final report published by the ICB will not trigger any immediate rating changes for UK banks; but is credit-negative for bondholders longer-term.
NZD
The RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.5%, mainly due to heightened uncertainty about global growth prospects and as monetary conditions tightened on the back of the strong NZD. RBNZ Governor Bollard said the exchange rate around current levels is hurting the corporate sector and will have a lasting impact in tightening monetary conditions.
In an environment of firm risk aversion, global growth momentum likely weakening further and the RBNZ on hold for now we expect the NZD to be a sell on rallies versus the greenback in particular.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
15 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk sentiment was stable in Asia, mainly in reaction to yesterday's constructive performance of European and US stock markets. Sentiment improved mainly on the notion that Greece will receive the next aid tranche from the IMF/EU after German Chancellor Merkel and French President Sarkozy both said that Greek Prime Minister Papandreou is committed to meeting agreed deficit-reduction targets and that they are convinced about Greece staying in the euro. However, the statement issued after yesterday's telephone conference actually offered little new of substance. New Zealand's central bank kept interest rates unchanged, mainly due to heightened uncertainty about global growth prospects. US data was generally soft yesterday. PPI was unchanged from last month while retail sales came in below expectations. Our US economists note that some of the softness may have been related to hurricanes, as households postponed spending, but there should also have been some offset. We remain cautious on risk and the euro against the dollar and yen in particular, amid uncertainty over policy implementation and growth concerns.
EUR
The conference call between Merkel, Sarkozy and Papandreou gave no further information to the markets. In similar fashion to previous statements, all 3 leaders committed to implementing the July 21 measures as quickly as possible. Germany said that Greece needs to put 'pledges into practice' to return to growth.
It was announced that 2 banks used the ECB's USD swap facility, for a total of $575 mn in the 7-day operation at fixed rate. While some have pointed to this as a further sign of funding stress, it is largely due to the large moves in EURUSD basis markets over recent weeks, banks will be increasingly tempted to use the facility if current trends continue. However, the very fact that the swap facility is now a cheaper option highlights the recent trend in funding concerns. It was also announced that Spanish banks borrowed EUR81.61 bn from ECB in August vs EUR57 bn in July, quite a sharp rise.
S&P said that is is very likely German banks could digest Greek default without state aid if crisis can be contained. They said the profit outlook for German banks appears negative, but not threatening yet if there is no recession or further widening of crisis
The EU Commissions Barosso said that the only way to stop a negative cycle of debt crisis is through deeper Eurozone integration; markets and investors will trust us only when we show that we can deliver on our commitments. He suggested that Eurobond proposals will soon be presented by the European Commission. The proposals that require substantial treaty change are no substitute for Greece meeting its obligations ECB's Costa also suggested that Europe needs to consider euro bonds, although the ECB have offered these thoughts before.
GBP
UK average earnings growth was 2.8% y/y in the three months through July from 2.7% in June and against forecasts for 2.8%. The UK's August claimant count jobless rose 20.3k in the month following a revised +33.7k in July (prelim +37.1k) and against forecasts for +35.0k. Overall, slightly supportive data for GBP although the currency remains driven by external factors at the moment.
Moody's stated that the final report published by the ICB will not trigger any immediate rating changes for UK banks; but is credit-negative for bondholders longer-term.
NZD
The RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.5%, mainly due to heightened uncertainty about global growth prospects and as monetary conditions tightened on the back of the strong NZD. RBNZ Governor Bollard said the exchange rate around current levels is hurting the corporate sector and will have a lasting impact in tightening monetary conditions.
In an environment of firm risk aversion, global growth momentum likely weakening further and the RBNZ on hold for now we expect the NZD to be a sell on rallies versus the greenback in particular.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
14th of September 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
14 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDCHF 0.8951 resistance.
EURUSD BEARISH Initial support lies at 1.3495, a break below which would expose 1.3428. Resistance is at 1.3837, July 12 low.
USDJPY BEARISH Break below 76.43 would confirm the bear trend and open up 75.95, the key low. Resistance is at 77.86.
GBPUSD BEARISH Fall below 1.5752 has opened support at 1.5719 ahead of 1.5676. Resistance is at 1.5870.
USDCHF BULLISH Key resistance is at 0.8951; a move above which would open the way for 0.9105. Support lies at 0.8706.
AUDUSD BEARISH Momentum is negative; the break of 1.0248 has opened 1.0111 ahead of 0.9928. Resistance is at 1.0376.
USDCAD BULLISH Rise through 0.9977 would pave the way for 1.0027. Support is at 0.9830.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.2191 and support lies at 1.2000.
EURGBP BEARISH Decline through 0.8596 would expose 0.8530. Near-term resistance is at 0.8720.
EURJPY BEARISH Initial support lies at 103.90 ahead of 102.45. Resistance is at 106.61, March 17 low.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
14 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDCHF 0.8951 resistance.
EURUSD BEARISH Initial support lies at 1.3495, a break below which would expose 1.3428. Resistance is at 1.3837, July 12 low.
USDJPY BEARISH Break below 76.43 would confirm the bear trend and open up 75.95, the key low. Resistance is at 77.86.
GBPUSD BEARISH Fall below 1.5752 has opened support at 1.5719 ahead of 1.5676. Resistance is at 1.5870.
USDCHF BULLISH Key resistance is at 0.8951; a move above which would open the way for 0.9105. Support lies at 0.8706.
AUDUSD BEARISH Momentum is negative; the break of 1.0248 has opened 1.0111 ahead of 0.9928. Resistance is at 1.0376.
USDCAD BULLISH Rise through 0.9977 would pave the way for 1.0027. Support is at 0.9830.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.2191 and support lies at 1.2000.
EURGBP BEARISH Decline through 0.8596 would expose 0.8530. Near-term resistance is at 0.8720.
EURJPY BEARISH Initial support lies at 103.90 ahead of 102.45. Resistance is at 106.61, March 17 low.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
14th of September 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
14 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk aversion rose again in Asia, mainly on the back of weakening growth expectations, persistent worries about the Eurozone periphery and several less constructive comments by officials. Chinese Prime Minister Wen said sovereign debt problems in some countries are rising, and signaled that developed nations should cut deficits and create jobs, rather than relying on China to bail out the world economy. China's central bank adviser Li said China should not buy large amounts of European debt. Moody's downgraded the credit ratings of two French banks. The Asian Development Bank cut its 2011 and 2012 growth forecasts for the region excluding Japan. And finally, the Australian government trimmed inflation readings for H1. Most Asian stock market indices are trading in the red, with the Nikkei down by 0.96%. EURUSD traded 1.3608-1.3706 and USDJPY traded 76.87-77.06.
Ahead today the focus will be on a call between German Chancellor Merkel, French President Sarkozy and Greek PM Papandreou. As such headlines will continue to feature prominently on Wednesday. Given uncertainty about the Eurozone periphery, weakening global growth momentum and faltering confidence in the ability of officials to tackle the European debt crisis, we recommend a cautious stance on risk and continue to believe rallies in the euro should be sold, for instance against the US dollar and yen.
EUR
Bundesbank President and ECB member Weidmann said he takes German peoples' worries about the euro seriously and that there is a danger that people will lose trust in institutions which try to solve the crisis. He added that his biggest worry is that measures taken so far shift the framework in a direction that is not sustainable in the long term. As such he said that planned EFSF purchases could weaken incentives for appropriate fiscal policy and that joint euro bonds are not needed. He added that he favours the ECB stopping bond purchases as these pose considerable risks to the Eurosystem.
Austrian economic minister Mitterlehner said on Greek insolvency, everyone must evaluate all possibilities and calculate consequences. He added that this does not mean that the calculated scenario is the preferred option. Clearly the rhetoric has changed in recent weeks from the likes of Germany and Austria and they are beginning to asses the consequences.
German Chancellor Merkel and French President Sarkozy will hold a call with Greek PM Papandreou on Wednesday afternoon.
Dow Jones wires reported the Dutch Finance Ministry expected Greece to default. This was later denied though the ministry noted that it was a scenario being looked at.
Fitch reported that Spain would find meeting its GDP target 'challenging as the region's deficits would put pressure on the central government. It warned that risks to the country's rating are 'clearly on the downside'.
Belgium's parliament has approved the second Greece Bailout, though many other governments and parliaments are yet confirm the July 21st agreements.
The IMF noted that Portugal's fiscal overhaul is 'broadly on track', but there is still a need to reduce waste and tighten spending controls. The fund stated any delayed fiscal implementation would undermine confidence in the current program.
US Secretary Timothy Geithner has confirmed his presence at the upcoming European Union Finance Ministers' gathering in Poland. However, he denied that the US will urge a larger EFSF, contrary to earlier reports.
JPY
Industrial production rose 0.4% m/m in July. This compares with a rise of 3.8% in June. Hence latest data confirms that the recovery since the March earthquake is losing steam and that both global growth uncertainty and the strong yen are weighing on business activity.
GBP
UK August CPI came in-line with expectations at +0.6% m/m +4.5% y/y. Our UK economist notes that the data is unlikely to have a material impact on the MPC. For choice, the committee will want to wait before it embarks on any further policy accommodation until there is clear evidence of inflation falling. Inflation is expected to fall from November onwards.
UK labour market data is out on Wednesday. The claimant count rate is expected to dip to 4.9% (from 5.0%) and the ILO unemployment rate to remain at 7.9%.
AUD
The Australian Bureau of Statistics revised its inflation readings for H1 2011 lower, mainly due to changes to its seasonal adjustment methodology. In Q2 the trimmed mean has been revised to 2.5% y/y from 2.7% y/y previously."
NZD
The RBNZ decision is due today at 21:00 GMT. Our analysts note that although there is little doubt that the economy has been stronger than anticipated at the outset of 2011. However, robust, self-sustaining, growth is yet to be established but Q3 could tip the balance - the data isn't due until late December. Global uncertainty should keep the RBNZ on the sideline as the cash rate remains at 2.5%."
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
14 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk aversion rose again in Asia, mainly on the back of weakening growth expectations, persistent worries about the Eurozone periphery and several less constructive comments by officials. Chinese Prime Minister Wen said sovereign debt problems in some countries are rising, and signaled that developed nations should cut deficits and create jobs, rather than relying on China to bail out the world economy. China's central bank adviser Li said China should not buy large amounts of European debt. Moody's downgraded the credit ratings of two French banks. The Asian Development Bank cut its 2011 and 2012 growth forecasts for the region excluding Japan. And finally, the Australian government trimmed inflation readings for H1. Most Asian stock market indices are trading in the red, with the Nikkei down by 0.96%. EURUSD traded 1.3608-1.3706 and USDJPY traded 76.87-77.06.
Ahead today the focus will be on a call between German Chancellor Merkel, French President Sarkozy and Greek PM Papandreou. As such headlines will continue to feature prominently on Wednesday. Given uncertainty about the Eurozone periphery, weakening global growth momentum and faltering confidence in the ability of officials to tackle the European debt crisis, we recommend a cautious stance on risk and continue to believe rallies in the euro should be sold, for instance against the US dollar and yen.
EUR
Bundesbank President and ECB member Weidmann said he takes German peoples' worries about the euro seriously and that there is a danger that people will lose trust in institutions which try to solve the crisis. He added that his biggest worry is that measures taken so far shift the framework in a direction that is not sustainable in the long term. As such he said that planned EFSF purchases could weaken incentives for appropriate fiscal policy and that joint euro bonds are not needed. He added that he favours the ECB stopping bond purchases as these pose considerable risks to the Eurosystem.
Austrian economic minister Mitterlehner said on Greek insolvency, everyone must evaluate all possibilities and calculate consequences. He added that this does not mean that the calculated scenario is the preferred option. Clearly the rhetoric has changed in recent weeks from the likes of Germany and Austria and they are beginning to asses the consequences.
German Chancellor Merkel and French President Sarkozy will hold a call with Greek PM Papandreou on Wednesday afternoon.
Dow Jones wires reported the Dutch Finance Ministry expected Greece to default. This was later denied though the ministry noted that it was a scenario being looked at.
Fitch reported that Spain would find meeting its GDP target 'challenging as the region's deficits would put pressure on the central government. It warned that risks to the country's rating are 'clearly on the downside'.
Belgium's parliament has approved the second Greece Bailout, though many other governments and parliaments are yet confirm the July 21st agreements.
The IMF noted that Portugal's fiscal overhaul is 'broadly on track', but there is still a need to reduce waste and tighten spending controls. The fund stated any delayed fiscal implementation would undermine confidence in the current program.
US Secretary Timothy Geithner has confirmed his presence at the upcoming European Union Finance Ministers' gathering in Poland. However, he denied that the US will urge a larger EFSF, contrary to earlier reports.
JPY
Industrial production rose 0.4% m/m in July. This compares with a rise of 3.8% in June. Hence latest data confirms that the recovery since the March earthquake is losing steam and that both global growth uncertainty and the strong yen are weighing on business activity.
GBP
UK August CPI came in-line with expectations at +0.6% m/m +4.5% y/y. Our UK economist notes that the data is unlikely to have a material impact on the MPC. For choice, the committee will want to wait before it embarks on any further policy accommodation until there is clear evidence of inflation falling. Inflation is expected to fall from November onwards.
UK labour market data is out on Wednesday. The claimant count rate is expected to dip to 4.9% (from 5.0%) and the ILO unemployment rate to remain at 7.9%.
AUD
The Australian Bureau of Statistics revised its inflation readings for H1 2011 lower, mainly due to changes to its seasonal adjustment methodology. In Q2 the trimmed mean has been revised to 2.5% y/y from 2.7% y/y previously."
NZD
The RBNZ decision is due today at 21:00 GMT. Our analysts note that although there is little doubt that the economy has been stronger than anticipated at the outset of 2011. However, robust, self-sustaining, growth is yet to be established but Q3 could tip the balance - the data isn't due until late December. Global uncertainty should keep the RBNZ on the sideline as the cash rate remains at 2.5%."
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
13th of September 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
13 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDCHF 0.8951 resistance.
EURUSD BEARISH As long as the resistance at 1.3837, July 12 low, holds, watch for a move below 1.3495 to expose 1.3428.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Near-term directional triggers are at 78.10 and 76.43.
GBPUSD BEARISH Clear break below 1.5781 would open the way for 1.5719. Resistance is at 1.5991.
USDCHF BULLISH Rise through 0.8951, a key high from May 16, would open up 0.9012. Support lies at 0.8706.
AUDUSD BEARISH Decline through 1.0248, a Fibonacci level would expose 1.0111. Resistance is at 1.0478.
USDCAD BULLISH Look for a move above 1.0027 to expose 1.0058, a key high from Jan 31, while support at 0.9869 holds.
EURCHF NEUTRAL The key directional triggers are at 1.2191 and 1.2000.
EURGBP BEARISH Support lies at 0.8530 ahead of 0.8479. Resistance is at 0.8720.
EURJPY BEARISH Break below 103.90 would expose 102.45. Resistance is at 106.61, March 17 low.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
13 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDCHF 0.8951 resistance.
EURUSD BEARISH As long as the resistance at 1.3837, July 12 low, holds, watch for a move below 1.3495 to expose 1.3428.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Near-term directional triggers are at 78.10 and 76.43.
GBPUSD BEARISH Clear break below 1.5781 would open the way for 1.5719. Resistance is at 1.5991.
USDCHF BULLISH Rise through 0.8951, a key high from May 16, would open up 0.9012. Support lies at 0.8706.
AUDUSD BEARISH Decline through 1.0248, a Fibonacci level would expose 1.0111. Resistance is at 1.0478.
USDCAD BULLISH Look for a move above 1.0027 to expose 1.0058, a key high from Jan 31, while support at 0.9869 holds.
EURCHF NEUTRAL The key directional triggers are at 1.2191 and 1.2000.
EURGBP BEARISH Support lies at 0.8530 ahead of 0.8479. Resistance is at 0.8720.
EURJPY BEARISH Break below 103.90 would expose 102.45. Resistance is at 106.61, March 17 low.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
13th of September 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
13 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk sentiment was stable in Asia after a Financial Times report indicating that China may be considering purchases of Italian debt triggered some position squaring, helping markets stabilize. Most Asian stock markets indices are trading in the black, with the Nikkei up by 0.5%. S&P futures are trading 0.3% higher. EURUSD traded 1.3689-1.3621 and USDJPY 77.25-76.99.
On the data front Australian business confidence slipped to the lowest level in more than two years and manufacturing sales in New Zealand fell for the first time in three quarters. Overnight, a spokesman for US House Speaker Boehner said the tax hikes President Obama seeks to fund his jobs bill run afoul of a 'bipartisan spirit', a sign that pushing through the $450 bn jobs plan could be tricky. Giving rising market expectations of a Greek default, weakening global growth momentum and faltering confidence in the ability of officials to tackle the European debt crisis, we recommend a cautious stance on risk and continue to believe rallies in the euro should be sold, for instance against the US dollar and yen.
EUR
The Financial Times reports that Italy is in talks with a 'China fund' for it to buy significant amounts of Italian debt. Greek Deputy Economy Minister Sachindis said Greece will run out of cash by the end of October if the next aid tranche is not released.
A German government spokesman said that Germany assumes Greece is doing all it must to fulfill obligations; only troika can judge if Greece is doing enough. They also said that if Greece does not fulfill the troika criteria than it is automatic that the next tranche cannot be paid.
EU officials said that the EFSF won't issue long-term bonds until governments approve the July 21 deal. The ECB said a total of EUR143 bn of purchases were settled under the bond buying programme to Sept. 9, from EUR129 bn the previous week, making the weekly numbers EUR13.96 bn.
Bloomberg reported that French banks could face a downgrade as early as this week. This would force funding costs to rise again within the Eurozone financial system and pressure risk in general. We remain cautious on the EUR at current levels. The French finance minister said French banks have no liquidity or solvency problems and passed tough stress tests in July.
ECB's Trichet repeated his calls from last weeks ECB meeting and said that central banks stand ready to provide banks the liquidity they require.
CHF
The SNB meets for its quarterly policy decision this week. We doubt much will be announced as the SNB has already actively introduced new policy measures throughout the past month, though the post-decision press conference could reveal more details about the implementation of the exchange rate floor for EURCHF.
SNB's total sight deposits in CHF reached CHF253 bn for the week ending September 9. While domestic banks had CHF207 bn, other sight deposits were CHF46 bn.
AUD
Business confidence in August fell to the lowest level in more than two years. The drop was mainly driven by rising uncertainty about the impact of weakening global growth momentum on business activity in Australia.
Falling business confidence does not bode well for labour market conditions as it may suggest that companies' readiness to hire will moderate further. Under such conditions there is little to suggest that the RBA will turn more hawkish in the near future. The AUD is therefore likely to be driven by risk sentiment.
GBP
The Confederation of British Industry said the ICB proposals on capital are out of step with internationally agreed measures underway. It added that the UK government must rigorously examine banks' ring-fencing otherwise it risks threatening economic growth."
CAD
Finance Minister Flaherty said he expects quite modest growth for Canada in coming quarters and next year. He added that if there were an external shock which shrank the Canadian economy, they would act accordingly."
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
13 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk sentiment was stable in Asia after a Financial Times report indicating that China may be considering purchases of Italian debt triggered some position squaring, helping markets stabilize. Most Asian stock markets indices are trading in the black, with the Nikkei up by 0.5%. S&P futures are trading 0.3% higher. EURUSD traded 1.3689-1.3621 and USDJPY 77.25-76.99.
On the data front Australian business confidence slipped to the lowest level in more than two years and manufacturing sales in New Zealand fell for the first time in three quarters. Overnight, a spokesman for US House Speaker Boehner said the tax hikes President Obama seeks to fund his jobs bill run afoul of a 'bipartisan spirit', a sign that pushing through the $450 bn jobs plan could be tricky. Giving rising market expectations of a Greek default, weakening global growth momentum and faltering confidence in the ability of officials to tackle the European debt crisis, we recommend a cautious stance on risk and continue to believe rallies in the euro should be sold, for instance against the US dollar and yen.
EUR
The Financial Times reports that Italy is in talks with a 'China fund' for it to buy significant amounts of Italian debt. Greek Deputy Economy Minister Sachindis said Greece will run out of cash by the end of October if the next aid tranche is not released.
A German government spokesman said that Germany assumes Greece is doing all it must to fulfill obligations; only troika can judge if Greece is doing enough. They also said that if Greece does not fulfill the troika criteria than it is automatic that the next tranche cannot be paid.
EU officials said that the EFSF won't issue long-term bonds until governments approve the July 21 deal. The ECB said a total of EUR143 bn of purchases were settled under the bond buying programme to Sept. 9, from EUR129 bn the previous week, making the weekly numbers EUR13.96 bn.
Bloomberg reported that French banks could face a downgrade as early as this week. This would force funding costs to rise again within the Eurozone financial system and pressure risk in general. We remain cautious on the EUR at current levels. The French finance minister said French banks have no liquidity or solvency problems and passed tough stress tests in July.
ECB's Trichet repeated his calls from last weeks ECB meeting and said that central banks stand ready to provide banks the liquidity they require.
CHF
The SNB meets for its quarterly policy decision this week. We doubt much will be announced as the SNB has already actively introduced new policy measures throughout the past month, though the post-decision press conference could reveal more details about the implementation of the exchange rate floor for EURCHF.
SNB's total sight deposits in CHF reached CHF253 bn for the week ending September 9. While domestic banks had CHF207 bn, other sight deposits were CHF46 bn.
AUD
Business confidence in August fell to the lowest level in more than two years. The drop was mainly driven by rising uncertainty about the impact of weakening global growth momentum on business activity in Australia.
Falling business confidence does not bode well for labour market conditions as it may suggest that companies' readiness to hire will moderate further. Under such conditions there is little to suggest that the RBA will turn more hawkish in the near future. The AUD is therefore likely to be driven by risk sentiment.
GBP
The Confederation of British Industry said the ICB proposals on capital are out of step with internationally agreed measures underway. It added that the UK government must rigorously examine banks' ring-fencing otherwise it risks threatening economic growth."
CAD
Finance Minister Flaherty said he expects quite modest growth for Canada in coming quarters and next year. He added that if there were an external shock which shrank the Canadian economy, they would act accordingly."
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Monday, September 12, 2011
12th of September 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
12 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURJPY breaks 105.44.
EURUSD BEARISH Sharp sell-off through 1.3525 has opened 1.3428 ahead of 1.3245. Initial resistance is at 1.3678.
USDJPY BULLISH Clearance of 78.10 would expose 78.60. Near-term support is at 76.69.
GBPUSD BEARISH Focus is on the key low from July 12 at 1.5781. A break of this level would expose 1.5719. Resistance is at 1.5991.
USDCHF BULLISH Key resistance is at 0.8951, a move above this level would open the way for 0.9012. Support lies at 0.8706.
AUDUSD BEARISH Break below 1.0315 would confirm the bear trend and expose 1.0246 next. Resistance is at 1.0478.
USDCAD BULLISH Rise through 1.0010, the key high, would pave the way towards 1.0058. Support lies at 0.9869.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Key resistance is at 1.2346 and support lies at 1.2036.
EURGBP BEARISH Pressure is on trend line support drawn off June 2010 low at 0.8559. A break here would expose 0.8534 ahead of 0.8479. Resistance is at 0.8612.
EURJPY BEARISH Fall through 105.44 has opened the way for further losses towards 100.00. Initial resistance is at 106.05.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
12 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURJPY breaks 105.44.
EURUSD BEARISH Sharp sell-off through 1.3525 has opened 1.3428 ahead of 1.3245. Initial resistance is at 1.3678.
USDJPY BULLISH Clearance of 78.10 would expose 78.60. Near-term support is at 76.69.
GBPUSD BEARISH Focus is on the key low from July 12 at 1.5781. A break of this level would expose 1.5719. Resistance is at 1.5991.
USDCHF BULLISH Key resistance is at 0.8951, a move above this level would open the way for 0.9012. Support lies at 0.8706.
AUDUSD BEARISH Break below 1.0315 would confirm the bear trend and expose 1.0246 next. Resistance is at 1.0478.
USDCAD BULLISH Rise through 1.0010, the key high, would pave the way towards 1.0058. Support lies at 0.9869.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Key resistance is at 1.2346 and support lies at 1.2036.
EURGBP BEARISH Pressure is on trend line support drawn off June 2010 low at 0.8559. A break here would expose 0.8534 ahead of 0.8479. Resistance is at 0.8612.
EURJPY BEARISH Fall through 105.44 has opened the way for further losses towards 100.00. Initial resistance is at 106.05.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
12th of September 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
12 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The euro continued its slide as Asian markets opened on a very weak footing. Major equity indices are trading weaker as fears of further escalation in the Eurozone crisis increased. German media reported over the weekend that the Finance Ministry was already looking at contingencies in the event of a Greece downgrade, while the Economics Minister of Germany also warned that talk of Greece default should not be considered taboo. EU Commissioner Almunia also noted that new rescues could not be ruled out. Despite speculation to the contrary on Friday, Greece did not announce any default over the weekend as PM Papandreou announced an intention to stay the course. In addition, a new property tax was announced by the finance ministry in a bid to improve revenue.
On the policy front, uncertainty also remains within the Eurozone in the wake of Juergen Stark's resignation from the Executive Council of the ECB on Friday. The immediate fear over the erosion of the ECB's policy integrity hurt the EUR, but investors may choose to take a different view if the ECB does take a material turn to the dovish side in the immediate future, which is considered rather essential right now to guarantee financial stability. On the data front Monday is expected to remain quiet. With USDJPY trading heavy again, investors will also be on the watch for BoJ action. The G7 Finance Ministers' meeting failed to yield an agreement on coordinated action, though Japan believes it has received a go-ahead for unilateral action. USDJPY traded 76.93-77.69 and EURUSD 1.3495-1.3678.
EUR
Late on Friday, ECB Executive Council member Juergen Stark announced his resignation. Press reports suggest that disputes over the ECB's decision to recommence bond purchases drove his decision. Germany Deputy Finance Minister Asmussen has been proposed as his successor. Stark announced he would continue to serve until a replacement is announced. The development is regarded as EUR-negative as the composition of the ECB is turning more dovish with the departures of Trichet, Weber and Stark, though if the ECB does become more accommodating towards easing in various forms, it could contribute significantly to improvement in financial stability.
Fears that the Greek debt rollover/swap would not hit the 90% target caused the EUR to sell off as well, on the back of fears that Greece would announce a default as a result. So far these fears have proven unfounded. On Saturday Greek PM Papandreou announced that Greece would stay the course, and Finance Minister Venizilos announced a new property tax would be implemented to maintain revenue targets.
EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Rehn said that he welcomed the Greek commitment and noted that EU staff would likely return to Greece in the coming days, allowing the Q3 Troika report to be completed by month-end.
Bloomberg reported that French banks could face a downgrade as early as this week. This would force funding costs to rise again within the Eurozone financial system and pressure risk in general. We remain cautious on the EUR at current levels.
The G7 Finance Ministers meeting did not agree on immediate coordinated stimulus. On Financial Stability, the noted that "monetary policies will maintain price stability and continue to support economic recovery. Central Banks stand ready to provide liquidity to banks as required. We will take all necessary actions to ensure the resilience of banking systems and financial markets. In this context we reaffirm our commitment to implement fully Basel III."
EU Commissioner Joaquin Almunia noted overnight that new rescues within the Eurozone could not be ruled out, though he said that he did not envisage a recession in the Eurozone.
CHF
The SNB meets for their quarterly policy decision this week. We doubt much will be announced as the SNB has already actively introduced new policy measures throughout the past month, though the post-decision press conference could reveal more details about the implementation of the exchange rate floor for EURCHF.
AUD
In figures released overnight, the trade surplus in July was $1.8bn as expected (UBS: $1.7bn, mkt: $1.9bn), steady from June (albeit revised down from $2.1bn). This is the 5th straight surplus, and is in line with the $1.8bn average surplus since April 2010.
Our analysts note the number indicate only a modest start into Q3 - with exports still disappointing due to an only slowly recovering trend of coal. More positively however, the positive trend in capital imports is consistent with the unfolding capex boom.
JPY
The G7 Finance Ministers' meeting failed to announce coordinated action on FX either, merely stating "We reaffirmed our shared interest in a strong and stable international financial system, and our support for market- determined exchange rates. Excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates have adverse implications for economic and financial stability. We will consult closely in regard to actions in exchange markets and will cooperate as appropriate."
Japanese Finance Minister Azumi had been warning of fresh action, and pledged to seek 'understanding' from G7 peers this weekend. The outcome of the G7 appears to have been welcomed in Japan as a green light for intervention, with Azumi noting "No one was opposed to my explanation. I think I gained an understanding of our stance on foreign-exchange rates."
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
12 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Monday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
The euro continued its slide as Asian markets opened on a very weak footing. Major equity indices are trading weaker as fears of further escalation in the Eurozone crisis increased. German media reported over the weekend that the Finance Ministry was already looking at contingencies in the event of a Greece downgrade, while the Economics Minister of Germany also warned that talk of Greece default should not be considered taboo. EU Commissioner Almunia also noted that new rescues could not be ruled out. Despite speculation to the contrary on Friday, Greece did not announce any default over the weekend as PM Papandreou announced an intention to stay the course. In addition, a new property tax was announced by the finance ministry in a bid to improve revenue.
On the policy front, uncertainty also remains within the Eurozone in the wake of Juergen Stark's resignation from the Executive Council of the ECB on Friday. The immediate fear over the erosion of the ECB's policy integrity hurt the EUR, but investors may choose to take a different view if the ECB does take a material turn to the dovish side in the immediate future, which is considered rather essential right now to guarantee financial stability. On the data front Monday is expected to remain quiet. With USDJPY trading heavy again, investors will also be on the watch for BoJ action. The G7 Finance Ministers' meeting failed to yield an agreement on coordinated action, though Japan believes it has received a go-ahead for unilateral action. USDJPY traded 76.93-77.69 and EURUSD 1.3495-1.3678.
EUR
Late on Friday, ECB Executive Council member Juergen Stark announced his resignation. Press reports suggest that disputes over the ECB's decision to recommence bond purchases drove his decision. Germany Deputy Finance Minister Asmussen has been proposed as his successor. Stark announced he would continue to serve until a replacement is announced. The development is regarded as EUR-negative as the composition of the ECB is turning more dovish with the departures of Trichet, Weber and Stark, though if the ECB does become more accommodating towards easing in various forms, it could contribute significantly to improvement in financial stability.
Fears that the Greek debt rollover/swap would not hit the 90% target caused the EUR to sell off as well, on the back of fears that Greece would announce a default as a result. So far these fears have proven unfounded. On Saturday Greek PM Papandreou announced that Greece would stay the course, and Finance Minister Venizilos announced a new property tax would be implemented to maintain revenue targets.
EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Rehn said that he welcomed the Greek commitment and noted that EU staff would likely return to Greece in the coming days, allowing the Q3 Troika report to be completed by month-end.
Bloomberg reported that French banks could face a downgrade as early as this week. This would force funding costs to rise again within the Eurozone financial system and pressure risk in general. We remain cautious on the EUR at current levels.
The G7 Finance Ministers meeting did not agree on immediate coordinated stimulus. On Financial Stability, the noted that "monetary policies will maintain price stability and continue to support economic recovery. Central Banks stand ready to provide liquidity to banks as required. We will take all necessary actions to ensure the resilience of banking systems and financial markets. In this context we reaffirm our commitment to implement fully Basel III."
EU Commissioner Joaquin Almunia noted overnight that new rescues within the Eurozone could not be ruled out, though he said that he did not envisage a recession in the Eurozone.
CHF
The SNB meets for their quarterly policy decision this week. We doubt much will be announced as the SNB has already actively introduced new policy measures throughout the past month, though the post-decision press conference could reveal more details about the implementation of the exchange rate floor for EURCHF.
AUD
In figures released overnight, the trade surplus in July was $1.8bn as expected (UBS: $1.7bn, mkt: $1.9bn), steady from June (albeit revised down from $2.1bn). This is the 5th straight surplus, and is in line with the $1.8bn average surplus since April 2010.
Our analysts note the number indicate only a modest start into Q3 - with exports still disappointing due to an only slowly recovering trend of coal. More positively however, the positive trend in capital imports is consistent with the unfolding capex boom.
JPY
The G7 Finance Ministers' meeting failed to announce coordinated action on FX either, merely stating "We reaffirmed our shared interest in a strong and stable international financial system, and our support for market- determined exchange rates. Excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates have adverse implications for economic and financial stability. We will consult closely in regard to actions in exchange markets and will cooperate as appropriate."
Japanese Finance Minister Azumi had been warning of fresh action, and pledged to seek 'understanding' from G7 peers this weekend. The outcome of the G7 appears to have been welcomed in Japan as a green light for intervention, with Azumi noting "No one was opposed to my explanation. I think I gained an understanding of our stance on foreign-exchange rates."
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Friday, September 09, 2011
9th of September 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
9 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
GBPUSD 1.5906 support.
EURUSD BEARISH Break below 1.3951 has exposed support at 1.3837, the key low from July 12 ahead of 1.3752. Initial resistance is at 1.4288.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Initial resistance is at 77.73 ahead of 78.10, while support is at 76.43 ahead of 75.95.
GBPUSD BEARISH Initial support is at 1.5906, a break below this level would expose the key low from July 12 at 1.5781. Resistance is at 1.6111, a previous low.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Near-term resistance is at 0.8814 ahead of the key high at 0.8951. Support lies at 0.8540.
AUDUSD BULLISH Key resistance is at 1.0765, a move above this level would expose 1.0809. Support lies at 1.0482.
USDCAD BULLISH Initial resistance is at 0.9911, a clearance of this level would expose 0.9969. Support lies at 0.9754.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Key resistance is at 1.2346 and support lies at 1.2036.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Sell-off through 0.8733 has exposed support at 0.8697 ahead of 0.8643. Resistance is at 0.8842 ahead of 0.8886, the key high from Aug 10.
EURJPY BEARISH The cross targets 107.84, a break through which would open the key low from March 17 at 106.61. Resistance is at 109.95.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
9 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
GBPUSD 1.5906 support.
EURUSD BEARISH Break below 1.3951 has exposed support at 1.3837, the key low from July 12 ahead of 1.3752. Initial resistance is at 1.4288.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Initial resistance is at 77.73 ahead of 78.10, while support is at 76.43 ahead of 75.95.
GBPUSD BEARISH Initial support is at 1.5906, a break below this level would expose the key low from July 12 at 1.5781. Resistance is at 1.6111, a previous low.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Near-term resistance is at 0.8814 ahead of the key high at 0.8951. Support lies at 0.8540.
AUDUSD BULLISH Key resistance is at 1.0765, a move above this level would expose 1.0809. Support lies at 1.0482.
USDCAD BULLISH Initial resistance is at 0.9911, a clearance of this level would expose 0.9969. Support lies at 0.9754.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Key resistance is at 1.2346 and support lies at 1.2036.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Sell-off through 0.8733 has exposed support at 0.8697 ahead of 0.8643. Resistance is at 0.8842 ahead of 0.8886, the key high from Aug 10.
EURJPY BEARISH The cross targets 107.84, a break through which would open the key low from March 17 at 106.61. Resistance is at 109.95.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
9th of September 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
9 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk sentiment was stable in Asia with most stock market indices trading broadly flat. EURUSD traded at 1.3883-1.3937 and USDJPY at 77.43-77.59. In China CPI for August was released in line with market expectations. In a speech to Congress President Obama proposed a USD 447bn job package. Although the size of the package was larger than expected some measures will still face resistance from Republicans. There was no proposal to encourage repatriation of US overseas earnings as hoped by some.
At yesterday's press conference ECB President Trichet stressed intensified downside risks to growth. The risk to inflation is no longer regarded to be on the upside. Hence he dropped his tightening bias. A further deterioration in growth momentum may trigger a further change in stance. Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech offered no new insights, and largely repeated the views he expressed at Jackson Hole two weeks ago. Investors' focus will now shift to this weekend's G7 meeting. The main focus will be on global growth conditions and the EU debt crisis. We see little scope for concerted FX intervention as demanded by Japan.
EUR
At yesterday's ECB press conference, President Trichet stressed intensified downside risks to growth while the risk to inflation is no longer regarded to be on the upside. GDP forecasts were revised down significantly. Inflation is projected to fall below 2% in 2012. Hence Trichet dropped his tightening bias. A further deterioration in growth momentum may trigger a further change in stance.
French Finance Minister Baroin announced that no final communiqu? would be issued after Friday's G7 meeting, which is due to continue into the weekend.
Dow Jones Newswires citing an unnamed source, said there is "serious concern" at the IMF about Greece's ability to implement structural reforms.
The Dutch Finance Minister said that if the IMF, ECB, or the EU finds Greece has not complied with the agreed budget reform path, Netherlands will not give further aid.
GBP
The BoE left rates on hold as expected and did not choose to alter their asset purchase program. We will need to wait for the meeting minutes due in two weeks to get a better idea of the MPC members' views and if there has been any change in the voting split. Cable got some relief after the announcement, quickly climbing about 50 pips. This is a price reaction we have not seen in a year or so, and clearly demonstrates that the market is now alert to the risk of another round of QE.
CHF
Trichet said he had been in touch with the SNB and that he respects the SNB's decision to intervene. This is a marked contrast to the frosty reception he gave to Japan's latest round of intervention at the previous policy meeting. He was clear that the situation with the Swiss franc cannot be compared with that of the yen.
Ahead of Friday's G7 meeting, Finance Minister Flaherty said he is "concerned" about the SNB's decision and he is worried that a currency war could have a negative impact on Canada.
JPY
Finance Minister Azumi said the economy is facing downside risks due to JPY strength. He will tell G7 Ministers that Japan is planning to take decisive steps against excessive FX moves and he wants to win the G7 Ministers' understanding on Japan's stance in that respect.
Our analysts do not expect that G7 Finance ministers will decide in favour of concerted FX intervention, especially as the main priority is to discuss global growth conditions and the EU debt crisis.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
9 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Friday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk sentiment was stable in Asia with most stock market indices trading broadly flat. EURUSD traded at 1.3883-1.3937 and USDJPY at 77.43-77.59. In China CPI for August was released in line with market expectations. In a speech to Congress President Obama proposed a USD 447bn job package. Although the size of the package was larger than expected some measures will still face resistance from Republicans. There was no proposal to encourage repatriation of US overseas earnings as hoped by some.
At yesterday's press conference ECB President Trichet stressed intensified downside risks to growth. The risk to inflation is no longer regarded to be on the upside. Hence he dropped his tightening bias. A further deterioration in growth momentum may trigger a further change in stance. Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech offered no new insights, and largely repeated the views he expressed at Jackson Hole two weeks ago. Investors' focus will now shift to this weekend's G7 meeting. The main focus will be on global growth conditions and the EU debt crisis. We see little scope for concerted FX intervention as demanded by Japan.
EUR
At yesterday's ECB press conference, President Trichet stressed intensified downside risks to growth while the risk to inflation is no longer regarded to be on the upside. GDP forecasts were revised down significantly. Inflation is projected to fall below 2% in 2012. Hence Trichet dropped his tightening bias. A further deterioration in growth momentum may trigger a further change in stance.
French Finance Minister Baroin announced that no final communiqu? would be issued after Friday's G7 meeting, which is due to continue into the weekend.
Dow Jones Newswires citing an unnamed source, said there is "serious concern" at the IMF about Greece's ability to implement structural reforms.
The Dutch Finance Minister said that if the IMF, ECB, or the EU finds Greece has not complied with the agreed budget reform path, Netherlands will not give further aid.
GBP
The BoE left rates on hold as expected and did not choose to alter their asset purchase program. We will need to wait for the meeting minutes due in two weeks to get a better idea of the MPC members' views and if there has been any change in the voting split. Cable got some relief after the announcement, quickly climbing about 50 pips. This is a price reaction we have not seen in a year or so, and clearly demonstrates that the market is now alert to the risk of another round of QE.
CHF
Trichet said he had been in touch with the SNB and that he respects the SNB's decision to intervene. This is a marked contrast to the frosty reception he gave to Japan's latest round of intervention at the previous policy meeting. He was clear that the situation with the Swiss franc cannot be compared with that of the yen.
Ahead of Friday's G7 meeting, Finance Minister Flaherty said he is "concerned" about the SNB's decision and he is worried that a currency war could have a negative impact on Canada.
JPY
Finance Minister Azumi said the economy is facing downside risks due to JPY strength. He will tell G7 Ministers that Japan is planning to take decisive steps against excessive FX moves and he wants to win the G7 Ministers' understanding on Japan's stance in that respect.
Our analysts do not expect that G7 Finance ministers will decide in favour of concerted FX intervention, especially as the main priority is to discuss global growth conditions and the EU debt crisis.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Thursday, September 08, 2011
8th of September 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
8 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURJPY 109.95 resistance.
EURUSD BEARISH Initial support is at 1.3951, a move below which would expose 1.3837, the key low. Initial resistance is at 1.4288.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Resistance is at 77.73 ahead of 78.10, while support is at 76.43 ahead of the 75.95, the key low.
GBPUSD BEARISH Focus on initial support at 1.5906, a break below which would expose 1.5781, the key low from July 12. Near-term resistance is at 1.6203.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Near-term resistance is at 0.8894 and support lies at 0.8241, a previous high.
AUDUSD BULLISH Rise through 1.0666 would pave the way towards 1.0765. Support lies at 1.0419.
USDCAD BULLISH Break above 0.9969 would expose 1.0010, the key high from Aug 9. Support lies at 0.9754.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Key upside trigger is at 1.2346 and support lies at 1.2007.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Initial resistance is at 0.8886, while support lies at 0.8728.
EURJPY BEARISH Initial support lies at 107.84 ahead of 106.61. Resistance is at 109.95.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
8 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURJPY 109.95 resistance.
EURUSD BEARISH Initial support is at 1.3951, a move below which would expose 1.3837, the key low. Initial resistance is at 1.4288.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Resistance is at 77.73 ahead of 78.10, while support is at 76.43 ahead of the 75.95, the key low.
GBPUSD BEARISH Focus on initial support at 1.5906, a break below which would expose 1.5781, the key low from July 12. Near-term resistance is at 1.6203.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Near-term resistance is at 0.8894 and support lies at 0.8241, a previous high.
AUDUSD BULLISH Rise through 1.0666 would pave the way towards 1.0765. Support lies at 1.0419.
USDCAD BULLISH Break above 0.9969 would expose 1.0010, the key high from Aug 9. Support lies at 0.9754.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Key upside trigger is at 1.2346 and support lies at 1.2007.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Initial resistance is at 0.8886, while support lies at 0.8728.
EURJPY BEARISH Initial support lies at 107.84 ahead of 106.61. Resistance is at 109.95.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
8th of September 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
8 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk sentiment was unstable in Asia, mainly on the back of weaker Australian labour data and uncertainty ahead of today's central bank meetings and speeches by President Obama and Fed Chairman Bernanke. Against market expectations, employment in Australia dropped in August, driving the unemployment rate to 5.3%. At the time of writing the Nikkei was broadly flat and the Hand Seng Index was trading lower by 1.0%. EURUSD traded 1.4050-1.4098 and USDJPY 77.22-77.42.
Overnight, two Fed speakers took to the podium ahead of Bernanke's own appearance later on Thursday. Chicago Fed President Evans, a well-known dove, repeated his view that the Fed should 'seriously consider' additional easing for now. San Francisco Fed President Williams noted that the economy in the first half of the year was dangerously close to stall speed. He also said the outlook for the next 12 months had grown darker. Main focus today will be on the ECB press conference. Weaker business activity and inflation expectations in combination with increased downside risks to growth would make a case for a more neutral assessment of inflation risk. In the US the focus will be on President Obama providing details about his plan to support the labour market. Fed Chairman Bernanke will speak about the US economic outlook. We do not expect Bernanke to provide more details about policy options for stimulating growth ahead of the FOMC meeting in September although he may sound more cautious.
EUR
The German Constitutional Court rejected lawsuits aimed at blocking German participation in Eurozone bailouts. However, the decision came with additional requirements. The Court said the government must get approval of parliamentary budget committee before granting any aid, and parliament must have a say in decisions that lead to burdens for German budget.
Angela Merkel said solving the euro crisis will be a long, hard path, which cannot be solved with radical steps like restructuring or Eurobonds.
Main focus today will be on the ECB press conference. Weaker business activity and inflation expectations in combination with increased downside risks to growth would make a case for a more neutral assessment of inflation risk.
GBP
UK July industrial output came in at -0.2% m/m, vs 0.2% and -0.7% y/y vs -0.4% expected. Our UK economist notes that the monthly manufacturing and industrial production data tends to be volatile, but today's data, combined with lead indicators such as the PMI suggest that the slowdown is likely to endure for some time.
CHF
President Calmy-Rey resigned. However, this is to be expected and should have no impact on markets as the presidency revolves on a yearly basis among the seven governing council (Calmy-Rey was the Minister for External Affairs).
CAD
The Bank of Canada kept the policy rate unchanged at 1.0% as widely expected. However the bank watered down its hawkish bias, noting that "the need to withdraw monetary policy stimulus has diminished". Slowing global economic growth momentum was cited by way of justification.
AUD
According to today's job report the Australian economy shed 9700 jobs in August. The unemployment rate rose to 5.3%, the highest level in 10 months.
This will ease concerns about domestically driven price risk and supports the RBA in taking a more neutral monetary policy stance for now. Given weakening external demand and hence rising downside risks to growth latest development may, however, become a trend over the coming months. A further rise in unemployment above 5.5% would once again put rates around current levels in question. We keep a cautious stance on the AUD, especially versus USD and JPY.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
8 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk sentiment was unstable in Asia, mainly on the back of weaker Australian labour data and uncertainty ahead of today's central bank meetings and speeches by President Obama and Fed Chairman Bernanke. Against market expectations, employment in Australia dropped in August, driving the unemployment rate to 5.3%. At the time of writing the Nikkei was broadly flat and the Hand Seng Index was trading lower by 1.0%. EURUSD traded 1.4050-1.4098 and USDJPY 77.22-77.42.
Overnight, two Fed speakers took to the podium ahead of Bernanke's own appearance later on Thursday. Chicago Fed President Evans, a well-known dove, repeated his view that the Fed should 'seriously consider' additional easing for now. San Francisco Fed President Williams noted that the economy in the first half of the year was dangerously close to stall speed. He also said the outlook for the next 12 months had grown darker. Main focus today will be on the ECB press conference. Weaker business activity and inflation expectations in combination with increased downside risks to growth would make a case for a more neutral assessment of inflation risk. In the US the focus will be on President Obama providing details about his plan to support the labour market. Fed Chairman Bernanke will speak about the US economic outlook. We do not expect Bernanke to provide more details about policy options for stimulating growth ahead of the FOMC meeting in September although he may sound more cautious.
EUR
The German Constitutional Court rejected lawsuits aimed at blocking German participation in Eurozone bailouts. However, the decision came with additional requirements. The Court said the government must get approval of parliamentary budget committee before granting any aid, and parliament must have a say in decisions that lead to burdens for German budget.
Angela Merkel said solving the euro crisis will be a long, hard path, which cannot be solved with radical steps like restructuring or Eurobonds.
Main focus today will be on the ECB press conference. Weaker business activity and inflation expectations in combination with increased downside risks to growth would make a case for a more neutral assessment of inflation risk.
GBP
UK July industrial output came in at -0.2% m/m, vs 0.2% and -0.7% y/y vs -0.4% expected. Our UK economist notes that the monthly manufacturing and industrial production data tends to be volatile, but today's data, combined with lead indicators such as the PMI suggest that the slowdown is likely to endure for some time.
CHF
President Calmy-Rey resigned. However, this is to be expected and should have no impact on markets as the presidency revolves on a yearly basis among the seven governing council (Calmy-Rey was the Minister for External Affairs).
CAD
The Bank of Canada kept the policy rate unchanged at 1.0% as widely expected. However the bank watered down its hawkish bias, noting that "the need to withdraw monetary policy stimulus has diminished". Slowing global economic growth momentum was cited by way of justification.
AUD
According to today's job report the Australian economy shed 9700 jobs in August. The unemployment rate rose to 5.3%, the highest level in 10 months.
This will ease concerns about domestically driven price risk and supports the RBA in taking a more neutral monetary policy stance for now. Given weakening external demand and hence rising downside risks to growth latest development may, however, become a trend over the coming months. A further rise in unemployment above 5.5% would once again put rates around current levels in question. We keep a cautious stance on the AUD, especially versus USD and JPY.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Wednesday, September 07, 2011
7th of September 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
7 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDCHF 0.8951 key resistance
EURUSD BEARISH Sell-off through 1.3951 would open the way towards the key low from July 12 of 1.3837 ahead of 1.3752. Initial resistance is at 1.4278.
USDJPY BEARISH Initial support is at 76.43, a break through which would open 75.95, the key low from Aug 19. Resistance is at 77.70 ahead of 78.10.
GBPUSD BEARISH Sharp fall through 1.6006 has exposed support at 1.5906 ahead of the key low from July 12 of 1.5781. Near-term resistance is at 1.6201.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Key resistance is at 0.8951, while support lies at 0.7841.
AUDUSD BULLISH Watch for a move above 1.0666 to expose 1.0765, while support at 1.0445 holds.
USDCAD BULLISH Rise through 0.9969 would open the way for 1.0010. Support lies at 0.9854.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.2346 and support lies at 1.1819.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Break above 0.8886 would open 0.8915, while a move below 0.8697 would expose 0.8643.
EURJPY BEARISH Momentum is negative; focus on 106.61, a break here would expose 105.44. Initial resistance is at 110.95.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
7 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
USDCHF 0.8951 key resistance
EURUSD BEARISH Sell-off through 1.3951 would open the way towards the key low from July 12 of 1.3837 ahead of 1.3752. Initial resistance is at 1.4278.
USDJPY BEARISH Initial support is at 76.43, a break through which would open 75.95, the key low from Aug 19. Resistance is at 77.70 ahead of 78.10.
GBPUSD BEARISH Sharp fall through 1.6006 has exposed support at 1.5906 ahead of the key low from July 12 of 1.5781. Near-term resistance is at 1.6201.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Key resistance is at 0.8951, while support lies at 0.7841.
AUDUSD BULLISH Watch for a move above 1.0666 to expose 1.0765, while support at 1.0445 holds.
USDCAD BULLISH Rise through 0.9969 would open the way for 1.0010. Support lies at 0.9854.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.2346 and support lies at 1.1819.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Break above 0.8886 would open 0.8915, while a move below 0.8697 would expose 0.8643.
EURJPY BEARISH Momentum is negative; focus on 106.61, a break here would expose 105.44. Initial resistance is at 110.95.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
7th of September 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
7 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
In the absence of any major news risk sentiment was more stable in Asia. Investors still seem to evaluate implications of the SNB's decision to introduce a price floor in EURCHF. Although the SNB's decision must be respected such a move should be temporary in nature as the SNB still has to stick to its mandate which is to ensure price stability. Although the move may help domestic business sectors it may ultimately spark more volatility in global markets as safe haven demand will be redirected to alternative safe havens, including the greenback. With the greenback more sensitive to risk aversion this may drive inflation and liquidity expectations abroad lower and hence be another factor keeping global risk sentiment unstable.
As EURCHF has been the most preferred vehicle to express a negative view on the Eurozone periphery, a stable EURCHF puts EURUSD downside at more risk. Last but not least the SNB's action may complicate conditions in countries such as Japan as the JPY will be more sought in periods of rising risk aversion. As such latest development may ease conditions to some domestic business sectors in Switzerland but may ultimately redirect safe haven demand and volatility to areas, where growth conditions may be more unstable. Under such conditions negative feedback effects through further weakening external demand on the back of rising uncertainty cannot be excluded.
Elsewhere, Australian GDP was released stronger, but RBA Governor Stevens reaffirmed that the central bank remains in a wait and see mode. Most Asian stock market indices are trading in the black, with the Nikkei up by 1.5%. EURUSD traded 1.3986-1.4065 and USDJPY traded 77.15-77.54. We keep a cautious stance on risk sentiment, and remain sellers on rallies in EURUSD.
EUR
The Constitutional Court is due to rule on the legality of Germany's participation in the original Greek rescue, and German involvement in the EFSF.
German Finance Minister Schaeuble confirmed Chancellor Merkel's latest comments in saying that Greece will not receive aid payments this month if the conditions of the rescue package are not met.
IIF Managing Director Dallara said that he does not expect a 'hard default' for Greece (the IIF is the group that is assisting the implementation of private sector involvement in Greece). Dallara went on to say that it will take some weeks for the participating banks to assess their options.
A meeting between the finance ministers of Finland, Germany, and the Netherlands broke up without agreement on how to resolve the impasse over Greek collateral.
Spain's Economy Minister Salgado said the recovery is ongoing and the Eurozone is not going to fall back into a recession.
JPY
The BoJ kept monetary policy unchanged, leaving the interest rate at a range of zero to 0 to 1%. According to the central bank the economy will resume a moderate recovery. However there is the need to carefully watch how FX market moves affect the economy. Developments in the US and Europe are closely watched.
We generally do not expect the Ministry of Finance to follow in the footsteps of the SNB by defining a floor in USDJPY which they would seek to defend, especially due to the strong dependency on the Fed's monetary policy stance itself and as the risk of such a move would be extraordinarily high given the costs related to the setting of a floor against the greenback.
GBP
UK Chancellor Osborne said the Eurozone needs greater fiscal integration, but that the UK would not participate in this. Osborne also ruled out another burst of fiscal stimulus. Another senior Treasury official once again said the UK would stick to its plans for fiscal consolidation.
CHF
The SNB set a minimum exchange rate target for EURCHF at 1.20, and announced the line will be defended by buying FX in unlimited quantities. They also said if the economic outlook and deflationary pressures demand it, the SNB will take further measures. By way of justification, the bank said the massive overvaluation of the CHF posed an acute threat to the Swiss economy. Imposing negative rates for foreigners still remains an option.
The SNB will be determined in defending the price floor as long as deflation risk remains in tact. However, in line with SNB Vice Chairman Jordan's recent comments such action is temporary in nature and only thinkable as long as in line with the central bank's mandate to ensure price stability.
Swiss August CPI came in softer than expected at -0.3% m/m (cons. -0.2%), and +0.2% y/y (cons. +0.3%). Rising deflationary forces may have been behind the timing of the SNB's actions today, although the plan has clearly been in preparation for several weeks now.
Swiss FX reserves reached CHF253.35 bn at the end of August, up from CHF182.1 bn in July. The increase was not due to FX intervention during the month. Rather, this is a gross figure and is largely due to the impact of FX swaps which simultaneously increased the bank's FX assets and liabilities. Net FX reserves are therefore much smaller than the gross figure implies. Valuation effects due to currency movement and returns on existing investments are also likely to have affected reserve level.
CAD
Fitch affirmed Canada's AAA long term rating, outlook stable.
Our analysts do not expect any change of policy to emerge from Wednesday's Bank of Canada's policy meeting. This is very much in line with consensus opinion where all 27 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect no change.
Investors however will be especially interested in whether Governor Carney will shift guidance in the policy statement to allow for the possibility of future policy rate cuts.
This is the first BoC policy meeting since the US ratings downgrade, and since the Fed spectacularly extended the Fed funds rate guidance. However, the scope for surprises from today's meeting seem limited given that Governor Carney signalled a wait-and-see approach as recently as August 19.
AUD
Australian GDP for the second quarter was released at 1.4%y/y, well above expectations for a rise of 0.5%. Both more than expected household spending and miners rebuilding stocks helped economic growth. However, the risk for an upside surprise was already high after business inventories were reported considerably higher on Monday.
RBA Governor Stevens signalled that the central bank will keep a neutral monetary policy stance for the time being, especially given the degree of uncertainty related to global growth. He expects households and firms to stay cautious for some time. Nevertheless according to him there is no certainty if this will refrain demand and hence inflation. Given no indication for the RBA to take a more active monetary policy stance anytime soon we expect the AUD to remain driven by global risk sentiment.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
7 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
In the absence of any major news risk sentiment was more stable in Asia. Investors still seem to evaluate implications of the SNB's decision to introduce a price floor in EURCHF. Although the SNB's decision must be respected such a move should be temporary in nature as the SNB still has to stick to its mandate which is to ensure price stability. Although the move may help domestic business sectors it may ultimately spark more volatility in global markets as safe haven demand will be redirected to alternative safe havens, including the greenback. With the greenback more sensitive to risk aversion this may drive inflation and liquidity expectations abroad lower and hence be another factor keeping global risk sentiment unstable.
As EURCHF has been the most preferred vehicle to express a negative view on the Eurozone periphery, a stable EURCHF puts EURUSD downside at more risk. Last but not least the SNB's action may complicate conditions in countries such as Japan as the JPY will be more sought in periods of rising risk aversion. As such latest development may ease conditions to some domestic business sectors in Switzerland but may ultimately redirect safe haven demand and volatility to areas, where growth conditions may be more unstable. Under such conditions negative feedback effects through further weakening external demand on the back of rising uncertainty cannot be excluded.
Elsewhere, Australian GDP was released stronger, but RBA Governor Stevens reaffirmed that the central bank remains in a wait and see mode. Most Asian stock market indices are trading in the black, with the Nikkei up by 1.5%. EURUSD traded 1.3986-1.4065 and USDJPY traded 77.15-77.54. We keep a cautious stance on risk sentiment, and remain sellers on rallies in EURUSD.
EUR
The Constitutional Court is due to rule on the legality of Germany's participation in the original Greek rescue, and German involvement in the EFSF.
German Finance Minister Schaeuble confirmed Chancellor Merkel's latest comments in saying that Greece will not receive aid payments this month if the conditions of the rescue package are not met.
IIF Managing Director Dallara said that he does not expect a 'hard default' for Greece (the IIF is the group that is assisting the implementation of private sector involvement in Greece). Dallara went on to say that it will take some weeks for the participating banks to assess their options.
A meeting between the finance ministers of Finland, Germany, and the Netherlands broke up without agreement on how to resolve the impasse over Greek collateral.
Spain's Economy Minister Salgado said the recovery is ongoing and the Eurozone is not going to fall back into a recession.
JPY
The BoJ kept monetary policy unchanged, leaving the interest rate at a range of zero to 0 to 1%. According to the central bank the economy will resume a moderate recovery. However there is the need to carefully watch how FX market moves affect the economy. Developments in the US and Europe are closely watched.
We generally do not expect the Ministry of Finance to follow in the footsteps of the SNB by defining a floor in USDJPY which they would seek to defend, especially due to the strong dependency on the Fed's monetary policy stance itself and as the risk of such a move would be extraordinarily high given the costs related to the setting of a floor against the greenback.
GBP
UK Chancellor Osborne said the Eurozone needs greater fiscal integration, but that the UK would not participate in this. Osborne also ruled out another burst of fiscal stimulus. Another senior Treasury official once again said the UK would stick to its plans for fiscal consolidation.
CHF
The SNB set a minimum exchange rate target for EURCHF at 1.20, and announced the line will be defended by buying FX in unlimited quantities. They also said if the economic outlook and deflationary pressures demand it, the SNB will take further measures. By way of justification, the bank said the massive overvaluation of the CHF posed an acute threat to the Swiss economy. Imposing negative rates for foreigners still remains an option.
The SNB will be determined in defending the price floor as long as deflation risk remains in tact. However, in line with SNB Vice Chairman Jordan's recent comments such action is temporary in nature and only thinkable as long as in line with the central bank's mandate to ensure price stability.
Swiss August CPI came in softer than expected at -0.3% m/m (cons. -0.2%), and +0.2% y/y (cons. +0.3%). Rising deflationary forces may have been behind the timing of the SNB's actions today, although the plan has clearly been in preparation for several weeks now.
Swiss FX reserves reached CHF253.35 bn at the end of August, up from CHF182.1 bn in July. The increase was not due to FX intervention during the month. Rather, this is a gross figure and is largely due to the impact of FX swaps which simultaneously increased the bank's FX assets and liabilities. Net FX reserves are therefore much smaller than the gross figure implies. Valuation effects due to currency movement and returns on existing investments are also likely to have affected reserve level.
CAD
Fitch affirmed Canada's AAA long term rating, outlook stable.
Our analysts do not expect any change of policy to emerge from Wednesday's Bank of Canada's policy meeting. This is very much in line with consensus opinion where all 27 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect no change.
Investors however will be especially interested in whether Governor Carney will shift guidance in the policy statement to allow for the possibility of future policy rate cuts.
This is the first BoC policy meeting since the US ratings downgrade, and since the Fed spectacularly extended the Fed funds rate guidance. However, the scope for surprises from today's meeting seem limited given that Governor Carney signalled a wait-and-see approach as recently as August 19.
AUD
Australian GDP for the second quarter was released at 1.4%y/y, well above expectations for a rise of 0.5%. Both more than expected household spending and miners rebuilding stocks helped economic growth. However, the risk for an upside surprise was already high after business inventories were reported considerably higher on Monday.
RBA Governor Stevens signalled that the central bank will keep a neutral monetary policy stance for the time being, especially given the degree of uncertainty related to global growth. He expects households and firms to stay cautious for some time. Nevertheless according to him there is no certainty if this will refrain demand and hence inflation. Given no indication for the RBA to take a more active monetary policy stance anytime soon we expect the AUD to remain driven by global risk sentiment.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Tuesday, September 06, 2011
6th of September 2011 - Technical Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
6 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD BEARSIH Break below 1.4055, the key low would open the way towards 1.3951 ahead of the key low from July 12 of 1.3837. Initial resistance is at 1.4288.
USDJPY BEARISH Initial support lies at 76.34; break below which would expose 75.95, the key low from Aug 19. Resistance is at 77.24.
GBPUSD BEARISH Sell-off through 1.6069 has exposed initial support at 1.6006, a move below which would open 1.5906. Near-term resistance is at 1.6261.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 0.8088, while support lies at 0.7712.
AUDUSD BULLISH Initial resistance is at 1.0666 ahead of 1.0765, while support at 1.0445 holds.
USDCAD BULLISH Sharp rally through 0.9901 has exposed resistance at 0.9969 ahead of 1.0010. Support lies at 0.9854.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Initial resistance is at 1.1353, while support lies at 1.0799, a key retracement level.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Near-term directional triggers are at 0.8822 and 0.8697.
EURJPY BEARISH Decline through 108.03 would signal extension of losses towards 106.61 ahead of 105.44. Initial resistance is at 109.12.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
6 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
TECHNICAL DATA
EURUSD BEARSIH Break below 1.4055, the key low would open the way towards 1.3951 ahead of the key low from July 12 of 1.3837. Initial resistance is at 1.4288.
USDJPY BEARISH Initial support lies at 76.34; break below which would expose 75.95, the key low from Aug 19. Resistance is at 77.24.
GBPUSD BEARISH Sell-off through 1.6069 has exposed initial support at 1.6006, a move below which would open 1.5906. Near-term resistance is at 1.6261.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 0.8088, while support lies at 0.7712.
AUDUSD BULLISH Initial resistance is at 1.0666 ahead of 1.0765, while support at 1.0445 holds.
USDCAD BULLISH Sharp rally through 0.9901 has exposed resistance at 0.9969 ahead of 1.0010. Support lies at 0.9854.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Initial resistance is at 1.1353, while support lies at 1.0799, a key retracement level.
EURGBP NEUTRAL Near-term directional triggers are at 0.8822 and 0.8697.
EURJPY BEARISH Decline through 108.03 would signal extension of losses towards 106.61 ahead of 105.44. Initial resistance is at 109.12.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
6th of September 2011 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview
DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
6 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk sentiment was muted in Asia, mainly on the back of intact worries about global growth prospects and the Eurozone debt crisis. Several officials stressed the fragile situation in France and Italy. According to German Chancellor Merkel Greece will not receive aid payments this month if conditions of the rescue package are not met. Italy's President Napolitano said that the alarming widening of Italian sovereign spreads over bunds cannot be ignored, and said it shows the urgent need to regain market confidence. Elsewhere, the RBA kept a neutral monetary policy stance. In terms of data, Australian export growth slowed more than expected. As a result to above outlined conditions and European markets' weak closing yesterday most Asian stock market indices are trading lower, with the Nikkei down by 1.2%. EURUSD traded 1.4059-1.4099 and USDJPY traded 76.78-76.97.
EUR
German Chancellor Merkel said that Greece will not receive aid payments this month if it is not meting conditions of the rescue package. She added that the situation in Greece and Italy is extremely fragile. Elsewhere, German Finance Minister Schaeuble said that Eurozone countries "will continue to collectively provide conditional financial assistance" to countries locked out of capital markets.
ECB President Trichet said that the global debt crisis is hitting Europe particularly hard. He added that if a country does not take appropriate fiscal decisions, it should one day be possible to enforce appropriate policy through a central authority. He said again that Europe would have a "federal government" one day.
Bank of Italy Governor Draghi said the EFSF must have enough resources so that it is not perceived as lacking in size. Draghi also advocated a change to the Treaty so that fiscal rules can be imposed. Draghi is due to succeed ECB President Trichet on Nov. 1.
The ECB reported that EUR 13.305 bn worth of bond purchases settled last week, taking the total stock of purchases to date to EUR 129 bn. This was the third-most active week since the program began in May 2010, and does suggest renewed investor selling pressure on Eurozone sovereign debt.
JPY
Economy Minister Furukawa said he expects the BoJ to take appropriate measures to help the economy. He also said that he expects the BoJ to pay heed to downside economic risks arising from the strong Yen.
According to G7 sources Japan is likely to bring up the issue of the appreciation of the Yen at this weekend's meeting. However, according to the source the recent rise of the greenback against most major currencies as investors sought a safe haven was likely to make any currency discussion less sharp. Hence G7 will unlikely agree on any joint FX intervention.
CHF
Economy Minister Schneider-Amman repeated that the Swiss franc is overvalued, and said it would be ideal to have EURCHF near the level implied by purchasing power parity. Schneider-Amman said he knows that many 'wait for action'. He added that it is up to the SNB to act.
The SNB announced that the average level of sight deposits held at the SNB last week was CHF 229.797 bn. This surpasses the CHF 200 bn target previously announced..
AUD
The RBA kept rates unchanged at 4.75 as broadly expected. The central bank remains concerned about the inflation outlook but views the outlook for the global economy as less clear. As such externally driven downside risks to growth are more difficult to assess. The board continues to assess the outlook for growth & inflation. On a different note cautious households and the strong AUD are regarded to dampen activity in some sectors. Altogether the RBA's statement is indicative for the central bank to remain in a wait and see mode.
On the data front, export volumes weakened more than expected. According to the Bureau of Statistics net exports could detract 0.5% from Q2 GDP. Housing finance in July rose 1%, less than an expected rise of 1.5%.
Governor Stevens is due to speak at a separate event at 23:30 GMT later on Tuesday night.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
6 September 2011 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday
____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT
USD
Risk sentiment was muted in Asia, mainly on the back of intact worries about global growth prospects and the Eurozone debt crisis. Several officials stressed the fragile situation in France and Italy. According to German Chancellor Merkel Greece will not receive aid payments this month if conditions of the rescue package are not met. Italy's President Napolitano said that the alarming widening of Italian sovereign spreads over bunds cannot be ignored, and said it shows the urgent need to regain market confidence. Elsewhere, the RBA kept a neutral monetary policy stance. In terms of data, Australian export growth slowed more than expected. As a result to above outlined conditions and European markets' weak closing yesterday most Asian stock market indices are trading lower, with the Nikkei down by 1.2%. EURUSD traded 1.4059-1.4099 and USDJPY traded 76.78-76.97.
EUR
German Chancellor Merkel said that Greece will not receive aid payments this month if it is not meting conditions of the rescue package. She added that the situation in Greece and Italy is extremely fragile. Elsewhere, German Finance Minister Schaeuble said that Eurozone countries "will continue to collectively provide conditional financial assistance" to countries locked out of capital markets.
ECB President Trichet said that the global debt crisis is hitting Europe particularly hard. He added that if a country does not take appropriate fiscal decisions, it should one day be possible to enforce appropriate policy through a central authority. He said again that Europe would have a "federal government" one day.
Bank of Italy Governor Draghi said the EFSF must have enough resources so that it is not perceived as lacking in size. Draghi also advocated a change to the Treaty so that fiscal rules can be imposed. Draghi is due to succeed ECB President Trichet on Nov. 1.
The ECB reported that EUR 13.305 bn worth of bond purchases settled last week, taking the total stock of purchases to date to EUR 129 bn. This was the third-most active week since the program began in May 2010, and does suggest renewed investor selling pressure on Eurozone sovereign debt.
JPY
Economy Minister Furukawa said he expects the BoJ to take appropriate measures to help the economy. He also said that he expects the BoJ to pay heed to downside economic risks arising from the strong Yen.
According to G7 sources Japan is likely to bring up the issue of the appreciation of the Yen at this weekend's meeting. However, according to the source the recent rise of the greenback against most major currencies as investors sought a safe haven was likely to make any currency discussion less sharp. Hence G7 will unlikely agree on any joint FX intervention.
CHF
Economy Minister Schneider-Amman repeated that the Swiss franc is overvalued, and said it would be ideal to have EURCHF near the level implied by purchasing power parity. Schneider-Amman said he knows that many 'wait for action'. He added that it is up to the SNB to act.
The SNB announced that the average level of sight deposits held at the SNB last week was CHF 229.797 bn. This surpasses the CHF 200 bn target previously announced..
AUD
The RBA kept rates unchanged at 4.75 as broadly expected. The central bank remains concerned about the inflation outlook but views the outlook for the global economy as less clear. As such externally driven downside risks to growth are more difficult to assess. The board continues to assess the outlook for growth & inflation. On a different note cautious households and the strong AUD are regarded to dampen activity in some sectors. Altogether the RBA's statement is indicative for the central bank to remain in a wait and see mode.
On the data front, export volumes weakened more than expected. According to the Bureau of Statistics net exports could detract 0.5% from Q2 GDP. Housing finance in July rose 1%, less than an expected rise of 1.5%.
Governor Stevens is due to speak at a separate event at 23:30 GMT later on Tuesday night.
A. White
Analyst at Fibosignals.com
DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)