30th of November 2010 - Technical Forex Market Overview

DAILY Technical Forex Market Overview
30 November 2010 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday

_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________


TECHNICAL DATA

EURCHF testing 1.3072.

EURUSD BEARISH Momentum is negative; the pair targets 1.2988 with scope for 1.2588 next. Resistance at 1.3354.

USDJPY BULLISH Recovery through 83.99 exposes 85.40 reaction high ahead of 85.93. Initial support at 83.57.

GBPUSD BEARISH Break of 1.5650 exposes 1.5509 and 1.5297 next. Near-term resistance at 1.5773.

USDCHF BULLISH Upside potential held at 1.0054 ahead of 1.0183. Near-term support at 0.9849.

AUDUSD BEARISH Focus is on 0.9542 reaction low; a break here would expose 0.9477 Fibonacci support. Resistance at 0.9818.

USDCAD BULLISH Sustained break of 1.0264 and 1.0374 required for confirmation of bull trend. Support holds at 1.0076.

EURCHF BEARISH Following the sudden decline yesterday, the cross now eyes 1.3072. Near-term resistance at 1.3401.

EURGBP BEARISH Break of 0.8402 would expose 0.8311. Resistance at 0.8564.

EURJPY BEARISH Clearance of 109.35 would expose 107.73. Near-term resistance at 113.67.

SCHEDULE

Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.

A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA

Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com

DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.

30th of November 2010 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview

DAILY Fundamental Forex Market Overview
30 November 2010 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday

____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________


FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT

USD

The dollar consolidated during the Asia session given the general lack of newsflow. EURUSD traded 1.3076-1.3150, USDJPY 83.83-84.41. Asian equities are broadly weaker at the time of writing, and the S&P 500 earlier finished fractionally in the red. Concern over Eurozone sovereign risk remains the primary driver of the dollar for now, and so any further widening of Eurozone bond spreads will likely continue to be dollar supportive. However, there are plenty of US data releases also due out this week and any positive surprises could further bolster the case of dollar bulls such as ourselves. We maintain our 3m EURUSD forecast of 1.25. Ahead in the US today, we have S&P/Case Shiller data, Chicago PMI, and the Conference Board consumer confidence index. Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota and Fed Chairman Bernanke are also scheduled to speak.

EUR

Eurozone sovereign spreads continued to widen despite the financial rescue of Ireland. The package did little to dissuade contagion fears and a poor Italian auction also put upward pressure on sovereign yields. Spanish and Italian 10y spreads over Germany reached euro-era record wides of 265bp and 191bp according to Bloomberg. And despite the Eurogroup's statement regarding 'private sector involvement' post 2013, the market appears to be questioning the assurances for bonds issued before this date.

The fixed interest rate charged on Greece's loan will be increased to 5.8%, to bring it into line with the terms of Ireland's loan. The repayment schedule will also be extended out to 2021.

JPY

The jobless rate for October unexpectedly ticked higher to 5.1% from 5.0% previously. Economy Minister Kaieda said Japan's economy is stalling, and the employment situation remains severe. He said the rise in JGB yields reflects a similar trend globally, and that he will continue to watch the impact of the BoJ's latest easing efforts.

GBP

The UK's Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)released its latest forecast for the UK economy with GDP growth for 2010 unsurprisingly revised up from 1.2% to 1.8%. GDP growth for 2011 was revised down from 2.3% to 2.1% versus our economist's forecast of 2.3%. The OBR also said the UK has more than a 50% chance of meeting its fiscal mandate and the budget deficit forecasts are in line with earlier forecasts.

CAD

Canada's current account deficit widened by $4.6 bn to record $17.5 bn in the third quarter, well above consensus estimates. Up next is GDP for Q3 and September. Monthly GDP should show decreased growth and the quarterly GDP figure will also show a drop from the previous quarter, though it will still show positive growth.

AUD

The AUD got a boost from a strong bounce in October building approvals which came in at +9.3% m/m (cons. 1.4%, prev. -5.3%). The current account deficit was larger than expected. Our Australian economics team are below consensus on the Q3 GDP report due out tomorrow, expecting to see a headline print of +0.3% q/q (cons. 0.4% q/q).

A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA

Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com

DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.

29th of November 2010 - Technical Forex Market Overview

DAILY Technical Forex Market Overview
29 November 2010 – 8:00 GMT
Monday

_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________


TECHNICAL DATA

EURCHF 1.3072 support

EURUSD BEARISH Push below 1.3235 favours another bearish run towards 1.2988. Resistance at 1.3421

USDJPY BULLISH Recovery through 83.99 exposes 85.40 reaction high ahead of 85.93. Initial support at 83.57

GBPUSD BEARISH With the break of 1.5650, bear trend remains intact. Next support at 1.5297. Near-term resistance at 1.5773

USDCHF BULLISH Rise above 0.9998 exposes 1.0183. Near-term support at 0.9849

AUDUSD BEARISH Focus is on 0.9542 reaction low; a break here would expose 0.9477 Fibonacci support. Resistance at 0.9818

USDCAD BULLISH Sustained break of 1.0264 and 1.0374 required for confirmation of bull trend. Support holds at 1.0076

EURCHF BEARISH Push below 1.3229 exposes 1.3072. Near-term resistance at 1.3401 intraday high.

EURGBP BEARISH Break of 0.8421 and 0.8390 would expose 0.8311. Resistance at 0.8564

EURJPY BEARISH Break of 109.35 would expose 107.73 ahead of 105.44. Near-term resistance at 113.67.

SCHEDULE

Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.

A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA

Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com

DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.

29th of November 2010 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview

DAILY Fundamental Forex Market Overview
29 November 2010 – 8:00 GMT
Monday

____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________


FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT

USD

During the Asia session, risk appetite initially benefitted from the news that Eurozone finance ministers had approved a ?85 bn financial rescue package for Ireland. However, the dollar quickly re-asserted its authority, and the euro gave back all its gains. EURUSD traded 1.3182-1.3354 and USDJPY 83.83-84.20. The reaction of Eurozone sovereign bond markets when they open today will likely be a key determinant of short term euro performance, and the spread of Irish sovereign yields over bunds will clearly be in focus. However, our European rates strategists doubt that any spread tightening is justified on the back of the rescue package alone. For our part we note that the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis is far from resolved and we consequently remain bearish on the euro's medium term prospects. Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the weekly CFTC IMM positioning data which is normally released on a Friday, is scheduled to be released instead at 20:30GMT later today.

EUR

Eurozone finance ministers approved a €85 bn financial rescue package for Ireland, although €17.5bn of this will come from Ireland's sovereign wealth fund and other domestic cash resources. The remaining cash is to be sourced from the EFSM (€22.5 bn), the IMF (€22.5 bn), and the EFSF and bilateral loans (€22.5 bn).

The cash is to be put to several uses: €10 bn has been earmarked for an immediate recapitalization of the banks, with a further €25 bn available as a contingency. The remaining €50bn is to be used to meet the funding needs of the State. The Irish Government estimates that the effective interest rate could be "of the order of 5.8%".

Ireland will discontinue its participation in the Greece loan facility, and has been given until 2015 to reduce the budget deficit to 3%. This represents a one-year extension to the original timetable. Repayments on the IMF portion of any loans drawn down are not due to start for 4 and a half years, and are scheduled to end after 10 years.

ECB Governing Council Member Noyer said that the current crisis is not a euro crisis; rather it is a sovereign crisis. Last week's by-election in Ireland was won by a candidate from one of the smaller opposition parties, effectively reducing the government's majority to 2 seats. The crucial Budget 2011 parliamentary vote is scheduled for Dec. 7.

JPY

BoJ Governor Shirakawa observed that the yen had fallen somewhat since the Fed decided to launch another round of quantitative easing, although he remains on guard for how the economy could be affected by FX moves. He nevertheless expects the economy to resume its export-led recovery throughout 2011.

AUD

Australian inventory data was much weaker than expected in Q3, falling by -0.8% (cons. +0.4%, prev. -0.1%). Our Australian economics team note this implies a 0.3% q/q detraction from the Q3 GDP reading which is due for release on Wednesday. Consequently, our economists revised down their Q3 GDP forecast to +0.3% q/q, putting them significantly below the consensus of +0.5% q/q. RBA Governor Stevens is scheduled to speak at 0730GMT. The talk is entitled "The Challenge of Prosperity".

A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA

Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com

DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.

26th of November 2010 - Technical Forex Market Overview

DAILY Technical Forex Market Overview
26 November 2010 – 8:00 GMT
Friday

_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________


TECHNICAL DATA

AUDUSD targets 0.9652 support.

EURUSD BEARISH Momentum is negative; break of 1.3235 would expose 1.2988. Resistance at 1.3634.

USDJPY BULLISH Climb above 83.99 would expose 85.93. Initial support at 82.40 ahead of 81.66 reaction low.

GBPUSD BEARISH Violation of 1.5650 would open up the way towards 1.5297. Near-term resistance at 1.5838.

USDCHF BULLISH Rise above 0.9998 exposes 1.0183. Near-term support at 0.9849.

AUDUSD BEARISH The pair targets 0.9652 with scope for 0.9542 next. Resistance at 0.9954.

USDCAD BEARISH Holds below 1.0374 keeping our focus on the downside. Initial support defined at 1.0076 ahead of 0.9978.

EURCHF BEARISH Pullback from 1.3674 eyes 1.3229 support, break of the level would expose 1.3072. Near-term resistance at 1.3488.

EURGBP BEARISH Push below 0.8449 exposes 0.8390 next. Initial resistance at 0.8543.

EURJPY BEARISH Break of 109.35 would expose 107.73 ahead of 105.44. Near-term resistance at 113.67.

SCHEDULE

Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.

A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA

Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com

DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.

26th of November 2010 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview

DAILY Fundamental Forex Market Overview
26 November 2010 – 8:00 GMT
Friday

____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________


FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT

USD

The dollar made strong gains during the Asia session after an article in the Financial Times Deutschland claimed that the ECB and a majority of Eurozone nations are urging Portugal to accept a bailout. Sentiment was not helped either by reports of further firing on the Korean peninsula. Finally, RBA Governor Stevens provided extensive policy guidance, effectively ruling out any further rate hikes in the near future. This dulled the allure of the risk-on trade, also causing the NZD to weaken. EURUSD traded 1.3294-1.3376 and USDJPY 83.56-83.92. Despite the lack of US economic data there remains plenty of event risk today, with Portugal's budget in focus. Parliamentary approval is expected but there are larger forces at work at present for the euro and the market will probably continue to trade on a risk-averse note. If negotiations between Ireland, the IMF, the EU and the ECB result in an agreement over the weekend, this could offer the euro some support on Monday. But any relief rally is likely to be short-lived given uncertainty surrounding the Irish budget vote which is currently scheduled for Dec. 7.

The common view is that by resisting currency appreciation against the US dollar, Asian central banks are importing the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and generating asset price inflation. While there's clearly truth in this, the difficulty is that during any transition to a more orthodox policy in Asia, capital inflows could actually accelerate in the first few years before current account deficits of sufficient size emerged to relieve upward pressure on money and credit aggregates.

EUR

A German government spokesman noted that both it and France have agreed that the current Eurozone rescue mechanism should remain unchanged until mid-2013, but Germany authorities continue to stress that private market bond holders are expected to bear losses under the new framework.

Peripheral bond spreads remain wide but even bunds are now suffering as investors begin to contemplate the cost of any Eurozone bailout to Germany and its own sovereign condition.

Funding concerns remain in the Eurozone as investors have noted a sharp rise in usage of the ECB's marginal lending facility, while the basis swap market is pointing to renewed demand for dollars, despite the presence of central bank swap lines.

JPY

Headline CPI turned positive in October for the first time in almost two years, reaching +0.2% y/y, in line with consensus. However, our Japan economist notes that this was largely due to a hike in tobacco tax. The core CPI reading remains in negative territory at -0.6% y/y for the twentieth consecutive month.

GBP

MPC members King, Tucker, Dale, Posen and Sentance appeared before UK lawmakers today and the Governor affirmed his view that inflation risks are balanced, but the BoE would be ready to act if necessary.

AUD

RBA Governor Stevens commented extensively on the outlook for monetary policy and clearly signaled the RBA is in no hurry to hike the cash rate. He said it is reasonable for the market to assume that the next hike will likely come around the middle of next year. Stevens maintained a tightening bias though, noting that the "medium-term risks on inflation lie in the direction of it being too high, rather than too low".

CHF

The KoF leading indicator is due in Switzerland and we expect a decline to 2.12 from last month's 2.17. Nonetheless the Swiss economy is expected to continue outperforming the Eurozone and we still expect EURCHF to trend lower in the current environment.

A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA

Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com

DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.

25th of November 2010 - Technical Forex Market Overview

DAILY Technical Forex Market Overview
25 November 2010 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday

_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________


TECHNICAL DATA

EURUSD targets 1.3265.

EURUSD BEARISH Following the break of 1.3363, the pair now targets 1.3265. Resistance at 1.3634 ahead of 1.3786.

USDJPY BULLISH Stalled below 83.99; push through the level would expose 85.93. Initial support at 82.40 ahead of 81.66 reaction low.

GBPUSD BEARISH Next big support below 1.5650 is defined at1.5297. Resistance at 1.5965.

USDCHF BULLISH Stalled in front of 0.9998; beyond this the pair has room for a run towards 1.0183. Near-term support at 0.9829.

AUDUSD BEARISH Momentum is negative, the pair eyes 0.9652 ahead of 0.9542. Resistance at 0.9954 ahead of 1.0183.

USDCAD NEUTRAL Trading in a choppy manner within 1.0380 and 0.9931 range.

EURCHF BEARISH Pullback from 1.3674 eyes 1.3229 support, break of the level would expose 1.3072. Near-term resistance at 1.3488.

EURGBP BEARISH Push below 0.8449 exposes 0.8390 next. Initial resistance at 0.8543.

EURJPY BULLISH Break of 109.35 would expose 107.73 ahead of 105.44. Near-term resistance at 113.67.

SCHEDULE

Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.

A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA

Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com

DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.

25th of November 2010 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview

DAILY Fundamental Forex Market Overview
25 November 2010 – 8:00 GMT
Thursday

____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________


FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT

USD

The dollar firmed during the Asia session as speculation about further China tightening continued, and the recent confrontation on the Korean peninsula produced more headlines. Still, the greenback couldn't rally against the CAD, which held onto all of yesterday's gains after the price of crude jumped almost $3/bbl. EURUSD traded 1.3307-1.3371, USDJPY 82.94-83.62. However, Asian stocks managed to make some modest gains, after the S&P 500 finished 1.5% higher. US data showed a sharp drop in jobless claims, improving consumer confidence, strong household income, and accelerating real spending. Weakness in durable orders at the start of Q4 was attributed to possible distortions due to seasonal adjustment. Treasury yields rose across the curve, keeping USDJPY supported. Housing data were mixed, with mortgage applications rising but new home sales and home prices falling. Given the holiday today, the next US economic release of note will be Chicago PMI on Nov 30, followed by the US employment report and ISM data later in the week. Until then, Eurozone concerns will likely remain in focus and should keep EURUSD under pressure while any further risk-seeking should see the higher-beta G10 currencies gain versus the dollar.

EUR

ECB Governing Council member Weber conceded that the foundations of EMU have been strongly shaken, but that he sees no reason to doubt the euro's future.

The Irish 4-year austerity plan was released and contained few surprises. Irish Prime Minister Cowen said that a bailout of EUR85 bn has been discussed with EU and IMF officials, though not yet agreed. Irish Finance Minister Lenihan reiterated that any financial assistance would be less than EUR100 mn. While a successful conclusion of negotiations on an aid package could help stem some of the recent euro downslide, it is difficult to see a more substantial euro recovery ahead of the budget vote, scheduled for Dec. 7.

The German Ifo numbers for November, while skewed to the upside, were broadly mixed. Our European economists note that although the core figures beat consensus and showed improvements versus the last readings, the widening gap between the current assessment and future expectations suggests that the slowdown in the German recovery may come later than expected. For the moment however, these readings are not driving the market and will continue to remain that way until an element of stability is restored to the peripheral bond markets. In other data, Eurozone industrial new orders were below consensus.

JPY

BoJ policy board member Nakamura said that the BoJ needs to continue watching FX moves and their impact. He offered a mixed outlook, saying that downside risks to Japan are somewhat stronger than upside risks, but that he expects the Fed's latest easing to have a positive impact on the global economy.

GBP

MPC members King, Tucker, Dale, Posen and Sentance are due to appear before a parliamentary committee today. The simultaneous presence of the hawkish Sentance and the dovish Posen could make for some volatile price action in sterling around 1000 GMT.

The second estimate of Q3 GDP was in line with expectations of 2.8% y/y. The UK's export sector showed strong performance of 2.2% q/q, which provides some evidence that a weaker sterling is benefiting the economy. Our economists see a slowdown in growth in the UK through Q4 and into Q1 of next year due to the fiscal consolidation measures feeding their way through to the system and the added effect of the upcoming VAT rate hike.

A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA

Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com

DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.

24th of November 2010 - Technical Forex Market Overview

DAILY Technical Forex Market Overview
24 November 2010 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday

_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________


TECHNICAL DATA

EURUSD support at 1.3265

EURUSD BEARISH Decline through 1.3363 has exposed 1.3265. Resistance at 1.3786 ahead of 1.4282

USDJPY BULLISH Stalls near 83.99; push through the level would expose 85.93. Initial support at 82.40 ahead of 81.66 reaction low

GBPUSD BEARISH Move below 1.5840 shifts focus to 1.5650. Resistance at 1.5965 intraday high.

USDCHF BULLISH Stalled in front of 0.9998; beyond this the pair has room for a run towards 1.0183. Near-term support at 0.9829

AUDUSD BEARISH The pair has support at 0.9652 ahead of 0.9542. Resistance at 0.9954 ahead of 1.0183

USDCAD BULLISH Sustained break of 1.0264 and 1.0380 required to confirm the bull trend. Initial support at 1.0070

EURCHF BEARISH Violation of 1.3229 would expose 1.3072. Near-term resistance at 1.3488

EURGBP BEARISH Sell-off from 0.8942 violates support at 0.8449 with scope for 0.8390 next. Initial resistance at 0.8598

EURJPY BULLISH Violation of 111.05 exposes Fibonacci support at 109.35. Near-term resistance at 113.67, yesterday's high.

SCHEDULE

Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.

A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA

Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com

DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.

24th of November 2010 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview

DAILY Fundamental Forex Market Overview
24 November 2010 – 8:00 GMT
Wednesday

____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________


FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT

USD

The dollar managed to hold onto yesterday's gains against the euro during the Asian session, but lost some ground to the Australian and New Zealand dollars. S&P cut Ireland's long-term sovereign credit rating by two notches to A from AA-. The rating remains on negative watch. EURUSD traded in a 1.3360-1.3419 range, briefly slipping 20 pips on the Ireland downgrade, before recovering. USDJPY traded 82.83-83.36. Risk appetite in general remained muted. Asian equities were mixed, after the S&P 500 closed down -1.4%. US data was mixed too, with the second estimate of Q3 GDP slightly better than expected and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index above consensus, but existing home sales disappointed. The latest FOMC minutes were largely as expected as most officials saw the benefits of QE2 outweighing the costs but there were disagreements as some thought that more easing would put unwanted pressure on the dollar. The lack of cohesiveness could cast doubt that QE2 lasts beyond the current prescribed June end-date. The FOMC cut the central tendency growth projections in line with expectations and the QE2 decision. 2011 growth was cut to 3.0-3.6% from 3.5-4.2%. 2012 growth was little changed at 3.6-4.5%. On inflation, core PCE prices for 2010 and 2011 were increased slightly, as were projections for total PCE inflation, and unemployment rate projections were raised across the board. Ahead we have initial jobless claims, durable goods, new home sales and University of Michigan confidence data in the US.

EUR

German Chancellor Merkel said the euro is in an "exceptionally serious" situation following Ireland's request for aid. She said that while the situation in Ireland is different to that of Greece, it is just as worrying. ECB Governing Council member Nowotny, however, said it is individual states, not the euro, which are in danger. He said he does not see any country leaving the euro in 10 years. ECB Governing Council member Mersch said that contagion is not afflicting the Eurozone.

Reuters reported the EU/IMF will offer EUR85 bn to recapitalize the Irish banks and fund public finances. The main opposition party, Fine Gael, later said it will act constructively in the interest of Ireland. The government is due to present its austerity plan Wednesday. A Moody's official commented that while Spain is fundamentally strong, they do have concerns on Portugal because of the banking system's reliance on ECB Financing.

PMIs in the Eurozone all rose more than consensus, following similar results for France and Germany. Manufacturing at 55.5 and services at 55.2 both beat market expectations, pointing towards a solid reading in Q4 GDP. The German Ifo readings are up next.

JPY

Finance Minister Noda said Japan must make efforts to ensure that there is no economic impact from yesterday's clash on the Korean peninsula. Economy Minister Kaieda conceded that the economy could be adversely affected.

NZD

RBNZ Governor Bollard said an improvement in the domestic savings rate would take upward pressure off both interest rates and the NZD. He added it would also reduce New Zealand's exposure to external shocks.

CAD

Canadian CPI was above consensus at +2.4% y/y, suggesting there is scope for a rate hike in the near future. The core figure also surprised to the upside at +1.8% y/y. Retail sales were slightly below consensus and USDCAD remained largely driven by risk aversion flows, which benefited the US dollar.

A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA

Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com

DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.

23rd of November 2010 - Technical Forex Market Overview

DAILY Technical Forex Market Overview
23 November 2010 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday

_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________


TECHNICAL DATA

EURUSD focus on 1.3363

EURUSD BEARISH Focus is on 1.3363; break through the level would expose 1.3265. Resistance at 1.3786 ahead of 1.4282.

USDJPY BULLISH Push through 83.99 would expose 85.93. Initial support at 82.40 ahead of 81.66 reaction low.

GBPUSD NEUTRAL Model is neutral; 1.6379 and 1.5840 mark the key near-term directional triggers.

USDCHF BULLISH Following the break of 0.9977, the pair has room for a run towards 1.0183. Near-term support at 0.9829.

AUDUSD BEARISH The pair has support at 0.9652 ahead of 0.9542. Resistance at 0.9954 ahead of 1.0183.

USDCAD BULLISH Sustained break of 1.0380 required to confirm the bull trend. Initial support at 1.0070.

EURCHF NEUTRAL 1.3834 and 1.3229 mark the near term directional triggers.

EURGBP BEARISH Sell-off from 0.8942 found support at 0.8449 ahead of 0.8390. Initial resistance at 0.8638.

EURJPY BULLISH While support at 111.05 holds, require a break through 115.68 to confirm a bull trend.

SCHEDULE

Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.

A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA

Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com

DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.

23rd of November 2010 - Fundamental Forex Market Overview

DAILY Fundamental Forex Market Overview
23 November 2010 – 8:00 GMT
Tuesday

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Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
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FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS at 0800 GMT

USD

News of an exchange of fire on the Korean peninsula led to a sudden increase in risk aversion towards the end of the Asia session. The dollar strengthened sharply, in particular against the yen given Japan's geographical proximity. EURUSD traded 1.3542-1.3634, USDJPY 83.23-83.74. We expect further dollar strength into year-end as dollar bears look to unwind positions. The US data calendar was quiet at the start of the holiday-shortened week, which only heightened market participant scrutiny of Eurozone developments. Minnesota Fed President Kocherlakota, a 2011 FOMC voter, said that he expected QE to have only a "modest" impact. But he nevertheless supported it as growth is "alarmingly" slow and uncertainty in the economy is too high. Upcoming releases include the second estimate of Q3 GDP and the latest FOMC minutes. The minutes will include updated central tendency forecasts. We expect these will show a lower real GDP growth projection than the 3.5%-4.2% central tendency reported at the June meeting.

EUR

Increased political uncertainty in Ireland, coupled with a ratings agency warning of a potential "multi-notch" downgrade continues to weigh on the euro. Irish Prime Minister Cowen said he would not dissolve parliament immediately or step down. But he said it is important for the government to work on passing the budget and finish aid talks. Cowen said should the budget pass on Dec 7, he would dissolve parliament and call for elections in early 2011.

ECB Governing Council Member Liikanan said the euro will survive this crisis and that it is 'impossible' for the Eurozone to split. ECB President Trichet said the euro has delivered exactly what was expected and the euro was not at stake. He shares the view that a dollar that is credible among the major currencies of the advanced economies is in the interests of the US. Trichet also said non-standard ECB measures are temporary in nature and that Europe is in a better fiscal position than Japan or the US.

UK Chancellor Osborne reiterated the UK will not be part of a permanent mechanism but would offer bilateral loans to Ireland.

A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA

Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com

DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.

22nd of November 2010 - Technical Forex Market Overview

DAILY Technical Forex Market Overview
22 November 2010 – 8:00 GMT
Monday

_____________________________________________________________________
Market Analysis Desk
Foreign Exchange Research: www.fibosignals.com/5585/resources.html
_____________________________________________________________________


TECHNICAL DATA

AUDUSD support at 0.9652

EURUSD BEARISH Pullback from 1.4282 holds above 1.3363; a break here would expose 1.3265. Initial resistance at 1.3777.

USDJPY BULLISH Push through 83.99 would expose 85.93. Initial support at 82.40 ahead of 81.66 reaction low.

GBPUSD NEUTRAL Model is neutral; 1.6379 and 1.5840 mark the key near-term directional triggers.

USDCHF BULLISH Following the break of 0.9977, the pair has room for a run towards 1.0183. Near-term support at 0.9829.

AUDUSD NEUTRAL While support at 0.9652 holds, break of 1.0183 would leave little resistance till 1.1083.

USDCAD BULLISH Sustained break of 1.0380 required to confirm the bull trend. Initial support at 1.0070.

EURCHF BULLISH Recovery through 1.3834 would expose 1.3924 and 1.4041 next. Near-term support comes in at 1.3411 ahead of 1.3229.

EURGBP BEARISH Bearish pressure held at 0.8449 ahead of 0.8390. Initial resistance at 0.8638.

EURJPY BULLISH While support at 111.05 holds, require a break through 115.68 to confirm a bull trend.

SCHEDULE

Please visit Fibosignals.com’s Economic Calendar for a schedule of market news and events.

A. M. Negrin Bautista, CFA

Chief Analyst at Fibosignals.com

DISCLAIMER: Fibosignals.com’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Fibosignals.com assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this message are not given or endorsed by Fibosignals.com unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative.